Slippage

[carrottop12]

I think there is a very likely chance that at least one of the guys currently projected in the top 8-10 slips to the Jazz at 12, and I wonder if the Jazz are really planning on taking the BPA, or if they have a guy they are really targeting at 12 and will stick with him regardless of any really huge player slipping.

Going off DX, the top 10 looks like this.

1. Irving
2. Williams
3. Knight
4. Valanciunas
5. Walker
6. Kanter
7. Fredette
8. Vesely
9. Leonard
10. Morris

Of those 10, I'd say there are 4 that definitely aren't going to be there at 12.

Irving
Williams
Knight
Kanter

I just don't see any way those guys stick around past 6. That leaves us with this board.

Valanciunas
Walker
Fredette
Veseley
Leonard
Morris

Of those guys, I think there are enough legitimate concearns that any of them could slip in favor of a prospect like Biyombo, Motiejunas, Tristan Thompson, or Alec Burks.

Valanciunas - Serious buy out issue, and he still is going to need to mature a lot before he can contribute much more than back up minutes. His body needs to improve, and he needs to cut down on the foul trouble.

Walker - Size and shooting are going to be the main concerns here. His swagger is why he is in the top 10 to begin with, and he has some NBA moves, but you just don't see too many guys his size starting int he league. Little guys usually struggle to finish at the basket, and he doesn't have the jump shot to negate that problem.

Fredette - Translation. Simply put, there is only one thing that will undoubtedly translate from his college game to the NBA, and that is his shooting. Pretty much everything else is a question mark. His play making, his speed, his size, his athleticism, his defense, his natural position. All serious questions. He could be an all-star, he could be a career 3rd guy off the bench.

Veseley - Of these guys, I think he is least likely to slip, although his game isn't anywhere near as diverse as the rest of these guys, but he has elite size and athleticism. If teams don't think he brings enough to the table skill wise he could fall, but I highly doubt that happens. May have the highest potential of these remaining players.

Leonard - His question will come down to whether or not he is a good enough athlete to defend at the next level like he did in college, and whether he can improve his offensive game enough to contribute on both ends. With the number is questionable SF's in this draft, he could end up being #2 to so many other guys I could see him ending up in the late teens.

Morris - Classic tweener in all the bad ways. Too slow to play SF, to small to play PF. He has an excellent skill set and could turn into a very solid NBA player, but finding a position is going to be difficult for him. He has a very proven track record, but you don't see a lot of guys like him as big time contributors at the next level.

Between these guys, I think each one of them has a potential fatal flaw that could easily cast them 5 spots down the draft below where they are predicted to fall right now. I would be shocked if Veseley and Valanciunas were there at 12, but if they did slip, I think it would be obvious as to why.

If this is the case, and the Jazz are left to choose between Biyombo and Burks, I think the Jazz would be thrilled at 12, but they may have a very talented pool of players to select from if any of these guys falls a few spots.

Obviously, 3 is the prize of this draft, but 12 may be the most interesting to watch.

[dingojazz]

Do women know about slippage?

[carrottop12]

[3960HOOD]

I can see Valanciunas and Leonard slipping to #12.

[Xanthis]

I can see Valanciunas and Leonard slipping to #12.

If that is the case who do you take? I think I am taking Leonard because of buyout issues. SF is a position of need regardless of who we take at #3. Since the Jazz are rebuilding I would like the guys to be together and work together. The buyout may not allow that and I don't care to wait a few years on a guy when your team is rebuilding.

[StocktonShorts]

It may not be the worst thing in the world if we were able to get Valanciunas and he played in Europe for another year. He'd continue to develop ON SOMEONE ELSE's dime, and he'd likely be more productive throughout his rookie contract.

[DelaneyRudd]

I think Leonard might be the guy who slipps. I think either one of the 2, Jimmer or Kemba, will be available. Sac seems like the only team above 12 who might go Jimmer, but I think it's a strong possibility. I prefer Leonard of the 3.

[Soul Patch]

I'd take Leonard. The wing rotation needs bolstering much more than the big man rotation does. Really, it's the only weak spot on the team.

[kamazilla]

I'm wondering why you guys see Leonard slipping. Was it the combine numbers? Honestly, I would be stunned if he's available at 12 and don't imagine it could happen unless some health concerns become apparent.

If he is there, I would absolutely take him over Valanciunas.

[UTJazzFan_Echo1]

Ya, I've had a hunch about Leonard slipping but I could also see Vesley dropping.