Trying to Mimic OKC

SoCalJazzFan · Post #1 » by **SoCalJazzFan** » Thu May 31, 2012 10:53 pm

I've read many posts referring to how the Jazz should try to get younger, like OKC. However, is this realistic?

OKC's success can be traced back to 3 years of the draft:
2007- #2 pick, Kevin Durrant;
2008- #4 pick, Russell Westbrook (and #24 Ibaka); and
2009- #3 pick, Harden.

The result has been 2 All Stars, 6th man of the year, and a 1st team NBA defensive player!

However, should (or even can) the Jazz copy this approach?

Let's compare and contrast OKC's success with other teams that were not so successful during the same time period:
Charlotte- 2007 #8, 2008 #9, 2009 #12, 2011 #9, 2012 #2;
Sacramento- 2007 #10, 2008 #12, 2009 #4, 2010 #5, 2011 #7, 2012 #5;
GS- 2008 #14, 2009 #7, 2010 #6, 2011 #11, 2012 #7;
Toronto- 2009 #9, 2010 #13, 2011 #5, 2012 #8;
Detroit- 2007 #15, 2009 #15, 2010 #7, 2011 #8, 2012 #9;
Bucks- 2007 #6, 2008 #8, 2009 #10, 2010 #15, 2011 #10, 2012 #12;
NJ- 2008 #10, 2009 #11, 2010 #3, (2011 #3 to Utah), (2012 #6 to Portland);
Clippers- 2007 #14, 2008 #7, 2009 #1, 2010 #8 (Chris Paul trade moved them out of lottery 2012).

What is the take home? If you can draft in the top 4 for 3 years in a row, you might have a good chance of getting a franchise changing player (the Wizs and the Cavs are hoping this is the case). Or, the draft is lightning in a bottle for a very few teams every so often, but oftentimes a disappointment.

Getting a top 4 pick 3 years in a row for the Jazz it is simply not going to happen. Their trades netting them Favors and Kanter (each a top 3 pick) and two other lottery picks over 2 years is probably as good as it is going to get. I think that perhaps the Jazz drafting Stockton, Malone and DWill in the past as franchise changers was pretty fortunate given the track record of other teams.

So, do the Jazz really want to get younger by trading for a mid-1st round pick this year?

hoops4life · Post #2 » by **hoops4life** » Thu May 31, 2012 10:58 pm

Everybody wants to use the OKC model now because it is the vogue thing to say. In reality, you have to draft extremely well and have ridicously good talent available to draft.

Much easier said than done.

JDubJazz · Post #3 » by **JDubJazz** » Fri Jun 1, 2012 2:39 am

The OKC model only works when there is a 1st team all NBA talent to build around. As much as I like the Jazz's young guys, none of them are in KD's league. I REALLY hope the Jazz are not so enamoured with their current guys that they become unwilling to move them in order to improve the team. For example, as much as I love Hayward, if I could move him in a deal for Harden, I'd do it in a heartbeat. The Jazz have a lot a talent, but unless they get someone who can offensively take over a game, they are doomed to years of 1st and 2nd round exits.

Post #4 » by **StocktonShorts** » Fri Jun 1, 2012 2:58 am

Here's an idea: Keep cap space available to throw a max deal at Harden.

babyjax13 · Post #5 » by **babyjax13** » Fri Jun 1, 2012 4:24 am

Add Portland (Roy-Aldridge) to that list, and San Antonio (Duncan), and Memphis (Gay-Conley) ... and Cleveland (LeBron, now Irving) ... and Denver (Carmelo) ... if you get that superstar with one of those picks and can find nice supporting players with the other, you're pretty much guaranteed to have a successful team down the road. And before we throw money at Harden, I'd rather take a look at Eric Gordon (injuries and all - he is a fantastic player).

reapaman · Post #6 » by **reapaman** » Fri Jun 1, 2012 5:21 am

We gotta take baby steps and mabey take on a guy or two with high potential but mabey are just in bad situations or have character issues or something. Its not impossible that a guy can be like Gary Payton and be medicore (at best) for a few years then be great afterwards. I say with a realistic trades and signing we can fill a nice team next year, somthing like this:

K. Marshall///J.Tinsley///B. Ahearn
C. Lee///D. Lamb
T. Evans///G. Hayward///D.Carroll
A. Jefferson///E.Kanter
D. Favors///R. Lopez///R. Sacre

After we evaluate our team next year, then we see if a blockbuster trade is possible and go from there. Baby steps, its not impossible at all for us to be a future legitamate contender.

erudite23 · Post #7 » by **erudite23** » Fri Jun 1, 2012 7:53 pm

You don't use "models" to build a team. You get as many good players as you can and then tweak things to make your pieces fit. Few teams ever get 3 straight big time players in the top 5. Partly because when you get ONE big time player, he is usually able to get your out of the gutter immediately. Moreso because its just unlikely to suck that bad for 3 straight years, no matter how you are built, and then partly because hitting on 3 straight draft picks is an iffy proposition.

You simply cannot replicate what OKC did. And no one is really trying. Anyone who says that is just doing it to appease fans and sponsors etc as a shorthand way of saying 'I know we suck now, but...'

Each team has different opportunities for talent acquisition. The ones that get a shot at a truly special player, like Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan, etc have a big leg up. But you don't have to have that to win it all. If Favors and Kanter both reach somewhere close to their potential, we'll likely have the best frontcourt in the NBA. If you do that you have something to build on. Considering that Hayward is already an ideal complement to them, and that Burks looks to be, at worst, a good sparkplug off the bench, we have a big part of the puzzle already figured. If we could get one dynamic player in the backcourt--like a James Harden--we would be set for contention. This core doesn't have a fatal flaw like the D-Will/Boozer teams did. We're better set up for the long term if we can keep maximizing our potential for talent acquisition.

You don't win in the NBA by using a formula.

russnumber3 · Post #8 » by **russnumber3** » Fri Jun 1, 2012 9:39 pm

I like alot of what you guys are saying, but I'm a little surprised at all of the love for Harden. I think he is in the best possible situation and has thrived because of it. Sure he could start for a lot of teams, but I don't think he will be as efficient as a starter without other great players around him. I think we need to look elsewhere and leave some other team to make him one of the highest paid players in the game.

Post #9 » by **StocktonShorts** » Fri Jun 1, 2012 10:01 pm

I thought someone did a study on the interaction of player efficiency with quality of teammates. Anyone else see it?

JDubJazz · Post #10 » by **JDubJazz** » Fri Jun 1, 2012 10:27 pm

russnumber3 wrote:I like alot of what you guys are saying, but I'm a little surprised at all of the love for Harden. I think he is in the best possible situation and has thrived because of it. Sure he could start for a lot of teams, but I don't think he will be as efficient as a starter without other great players around him. I think we need to look elsewhere and leave some other team to make him one of the highest paid players in the game.

I never meant that he should be our number one target, just that he's the type of player that we should be persuing, even if it costs us some of our young talent.You may very well be right about him becoming horribly overpaid. In fact, I think its quite likely that he becomes the next Joe Johnson. That being said, the Jazz MUST find someone who can be offensively dominant and get his own shot.

Post #11 » by **DelaneyRudd** » Sat Jun 2, 2012 2:21 am

Besides Ibaka their core players are mostly very high picks, no?

Post #12 » by **StocktonShorts** » Sat Jun 2, 2012 3:17 am

Harden is much more efficient than Joe Johnson has ever been. Does he deserve a max deal? Not sure, but that's probably what it would take to get him in a Jazz uniform. I'd take that risk.

The59Sound · Post #13 » by **The59Sound** » Sat Jun 2, 2012 9:19 pm

HappyProle wrote:Harden is much more efficient than Joe Johnson has ever been. Does he deserve a max deal? Not sure, but that's probably what it would take to get him in a Jazz uniform. I'd take that risk.

Me too.

Jefff · Post #14 » by **Jefff** » Sun Jun 3, 2012 1:39 am

The59Sound wrote:
HappyProle wrote:Harden is much more efficient than Joe Johnson has ever been. Does he deserve a max deal? Not sure, but that's probably what it would take to get him in a Jazz uniform. I'd take that risk.

Me too.

+1

russnumber3 · Post #15 » by **russnumber3** » Sun Jun 3, 2012 2:30 am

I think you're forgetting what Joe Johnson was like when he wasn't the focal point with the Suns. I actually think that is a really good comparison, and I think Harden could very well turn into a volume scorer similar to Johnson. We shouldn't be the ones to fall for it!

Post #16 » by **StocktonShorts** » Sun Jun 3, 2012 2:55 am

russnumber3 wrote:I think you're forgetting what Joe Johnson was like when he wasn't the focal point with the Suns. I actually think that is a really good comparison, and I think Harden could very well turn into a volume scorer similar to Johnson. We shouldn't be the ones to fall for it!

I'm not relying on my memory, I just looked at their offensive efficiency numbers.