RealGM

Posted: **Thu Sep 20, 2012 12:44 pm**

Usually I wouldn't post an article from the front page of NBA.com, but since it's September and I'm sure not many of you check that website everyday...

http://www.nba.com/2012/news/features/j ... ef:nbahpt1

Utah Jazz

Record: 36-30
Pace: 93.9 (13)
OffRtg: 103.7 (7)
DefRtg: 103.6 (20)
NetRtg: +0.2 (17)

The Jazz were the surprise team in the Western Conference last season, earning a playoff spot with a very good offense and a defense that was decent enough at home.

They were not a very good shooting team, but the Jazz took care of the ball, got to the free-throw line, and crashed the glass. They ranked second in the league (behind Chicago) with 1,021 second-chance points, which comprised about 16 percent of their total scoring.

This summer, the Jazz replaced Devin Harris, C.J. Miles and Josh Howard with Mo Williams, Marvin Williams and Randy Foye. Changes on the perimeter won't affect Utah's ability to grab offensive boards, but the point guard switch could affect their turnover rate and shooting.

Harris committed 16.4 turnovers per 100 possessions used last season, not a great rate, but better than average for starting point guards. Mo Williams actually had a lower turnover rate (12.1), but wasn't playing the point much with the Clippers. If you go back to his last two years as a starting point guard, his turnover rate was in the same range as Harris'.

Mo Williams, of course, is a much better shooter than Harris, especially from 3-point range (40.1 percent vs. 31.6 percent over the last five seasons). And that's where the Jazz need the most help offensively. They ranked 27th in 3-point percentage and 28th in total 3-pointers last season.

Foye and Marvin Williams have both been pretty inconsistent from beyond the arc over the course of their careers, but they each shot 39 percent last season. And if the Jazz can complement their interior dominance with improved shooting, they can be an elite offensive team.

Utah's defense will improve if Derrick Favors takes more minutes from Al Jefferson. The Jazz allowed just 94.7 points per 100 possessions in 466 minutes with Favors and Paul Millsap on the floor together last season, vs. 104.9 in 1,818 minutes with Jefferson and Millsap on the floor.

Posted: **Thu Sep 20, 2012 2:40 pm**

Utah's defense will improve if Derrick Favors takes more minutes from Al Jefferson. The Jazz allowed just 94.7 points per 100 possessions in 466 minutes with Favors and Paul Millsap on the floor together last season, vs. 104.9 in 1,818 minutes with Jefferson and Millsap on the floor.

WOW...big difference of 10 points a game!!!!!

Strategy suggests that the better defensive team is far superior, and it is ok to add more skilled offensive players like Mo Williams to balance it out.

I am sold.....let Jeffersons $14M contract expire.

Posted: **Thu Sep 20, 2012 2:56 pm**

Why wasn't the number for the Jefferson/Favors combination included in the article?

Posted: **Thu Sep 20, 2012 5:03 pm**

Thanks for the post! That's what I love about forums. A quick gather all of all stuff on topic.

"And if the Jazz can complement their interior dominance with improved shooting, they can be an elite offensive team".

Addict, that surely is a HUGH! number for defense. 3-5 points are 3-5 games.....10 points, wow again. And combine that with their new outside shooting and watch out baby here come the Jazz!!!!!!!!

Posted: **Thu Sep 20, 2012 8:34 pm**

Here is a link from Locke about the offensive and defensive rating combo of Favors with either Sap or Al.

http://weareutahjazz.com/lockedonjazz/2 ... e-defense/

You'll see that with Favors/Al combo, they have a 105.3 Offensive rating and a 106.4 defensive rating.

The Favors/Sap combo has a slightly lower 104.1 OR but a much better 101.5 DR.

When Sap played SF and Favors and Al or Kanter played (limited mins last year), the numbers were off the charts for defense and as good or better for offense. Of course, our regular SFs last year left a lot to be desired.

These numbers are what really fuel the question as to whether the Jazz should keep Sap or Al (assuming they can't keep both, as they can't). Logic would indicate that a smaller, older Sap be replaced by the bigger, younger Favors and to keep Al whose offense is undeniable. But Al's lack of defense really comes into play in these stats.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Jazz want to see how the combos of Favors with Sap or Al, combined with the better 3 pt shooting, plays out over the first month or two of the season before committing to one or the other long term.

Posted: **Thu Sep 20, 2012 8:39 pm**

Perhaps the stats aren't fair to Kanter as it was his 1st year, but having Al or Sap play alongside Favors was always better than with Kanter (both offensively and defensively).

For this reason, if Sap stays, I think that Favors plays the 5 primarily. If Al stays, Favors plays the 4. Kanter will get backup minutes for the next year or two until he proves he is starter material or a bust. Fotunately, the Jazz can front load a contract for Sap or Al for the first 2 years and pay less once the decision about keeping Kanter comes into play so as to more easily trade Sap/Al or pass on Kanter.

Posted: **Fri Sep 21, 2012 12:16 pm**

Very telling.
It seems clear to me Favors should be playing.

And Milsap should be in as much as possible, sliding to the SF when necessary.

Posted: **Fri Sep 21, 2012 8:50 pm**

You gotta be careful with numbers like these. For one remeber most of the time Millsap and Favors were playing together, it was versus 2nd team units while Jefferson and Milsap were against first team units.

Same thing with synergy numbers. Those numbers suggest that not only is Jefferson the best defender on this team (some of Favors numbers are better but he doesn't play as much versus 1st team units as Al), he is top defender in the league.

We gotta go by the eye test. Plus we can't forget most of this board was complaining about how inconsistent favors was on both sides of the ball even into early april. Some how he became one of the best defenders in the league after the playoffs (which imo he had some nice moments but end up getting destroyed with the rest of the team) but I can't forget the months and months of averageness he displayed on the defensive side and especially on the offensive side where he left alot to be desired.

Posted: **Sat Sep 22, 2012 10:39 pm**

red4hf wrote:Why wasn't the number for the Jefferson/Favors combination included in the article?

My first thought

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