RealGM

I wanted to get everyone's playoff probabilities, to see if we can figure out what the heck is gonna happen..

We are 38 games in(damn there half way), and we are .500 with 19-19. 15 losses on the road. At this rate, losing double the road games than winning them, with home losses here and there, were likely to hit .500 in the end.


As of right now, I think everyone can agree on top 5 current teams will make it:

1-OKC (0.0)
2-LAC (0.0)
3-SAS (1.5)
4-MEM (3.0)
5-GS (4.5)
---------^In what ever order, these will be our top 5 teams.

6-DEN (7.0)
7-HOU (7.5)
8-POR (8.0)
--------^Current teams in playoff with less dominate hold, and fluxuates between them.

9-UTA (10.0)
10-MIN (10.5)
11-LAL (13.0)
12-DAL (14.5)
13-SAC (15.0)
-----------^Jazz lead the "losing" teams being the only at .500, were lucky DAL and LAL are not doing hott.


My question, can Jazz successfully win division and western conference games(especially against those in our way), to get a 2nd or 3rd position in the NW?? Or, is Jazz good enough to get past MIN, POR, DEN and/or HOU, and secure at least 8th, assuming LAL and DAL are out of the picutre??

My Prediction:

Unless we get lucky enough, Jazz are doomed for 9th or 10th. When I say lucky, I mean we are already lucky in that MIN, LAL, and DAL are all plagued by injury and having bad seasons(compared to what they could have been), which is the only reason were not 12th or worst right now. To get lucky enough to get into 8th, either Harden or Lillard would need to be injured, for us to get past either HOU or POR. Honestly, I think all current playoff teams are way better than us, including Portland who is the "worst" current playoff team.

As of right now, I believe DEN and HOU are going to the playoffs. DEN for sure, because they have faced more hardships than us, and are 3 games up taking 2nd in NW. HOU isn't exactly great, but they have good players who are capable of going to playoffs. Leaving POR as the only team were likely to pass, especially if we can win our back to back games coming up at the end of the month, winning both would put us up 2 full games on POR(biggest games of the year, if things stay stay at this rate).

I know HOU and POR, are capable of losing, and when all is said and done, we can easily surpass them. Were capable of winning enough to stay several games above .500. Are fate isn't sealed, and unless things turn around for Jazz, we might as well start waiting til next year to put on our playoff hats and shirts. If I were a betting man, I would not bet on the Jazz making the playoffs, and would feel more comfortable betting on MIN over UTA. I would like to see MIN and UTA take out POR and HOU....(if were lucky we will, with injuries due to over working their two all star shooters).....

Other web sites say to make the 8th spot in the west you need at least 45 wins. Well that equals out to 37 losses. So 18 more losses and we are out of it.

After looking at our schedule, I see easily 22 more losses. Another late lotto pick is in store for us.

so we need to finish the season 26-18, I just dont see it

even if this team will make it, they will be swept exactly like last year, maybe we gonna make one game so corbin could say that we are heading in right direction

Lava Rock Kid wrote:so we need to finish the season 26-18, I just dont see it

Last year we were 20-22 and we finish 36-30.... you never now.
In fact, we were 31-30 and we finish 36-30.

This is our future......#13 in the draft.

www.nbadraft.net

It would be awesome to get Kentucky guard Goodbwin who is compared with RussWestbrook.

FJS wrote:

Lava Rock Kid wrote:so we need to finish the season 26-18, I just dont see it

Last year we were 20-22 and we finish 36-30.... you never now.
In fact, we were 31-30 and we finish 36-30.

However, we only played 66 games...which is like not play in November or half of December...Meaning instead of the season ending at the end of February, its gonna end in April.(66 games is in February), 82 is in April(as far as this year goes. Jazz can get above .500, but its gonna be a longer run from where we were)


The problem is not what we can do, its how many things others can do. POR, MIN and DEN are all out of rebuilding mode with teams that can win the games and they need to win and can(especially Denver and Houston). I just think the Jazz don't realize how vital these games are. Expecting to win 42 home games, is too impossible, so every road game makes up for home losses.

Home games plus -.500 teams, are your bread and butter, these are must win games, and winning tougher teams in slumps, like last night, are also needed. What separates you is winning the road, and Jazz don't seem to care enough. Last night, it was almost like we were paid to lose, as if someone wants that good draft pick, and doesn't want 8th.

Honestly...I rather see a nice trade based around getting a nice draft pick(instead of playoffs)....we don't need a top 10 to get a new Stockton or Malone....#13 is good enough.

I am not gonna lie, I kind of want it. I know were good, but were missing vital experience in our bench to win road games, and consistency from our starters to win at home. Do I think we have what it takes...no. Should we bomb harder for better spot.....no...unless you want to turn around like GS did this year.

Hoops Addict wrote:This is our future......#13 in the draft.

http://www.nbadraft.net

It would be awesome to get Kentucky guard Goodbwin who is compared with RussWestbrook.

He is a reason to miss the playoffs. I rather not go this year, if were going to have a fighting chance next year, like, actually be a part of the winning groups, and actually rank high enough to have a chance at 2nd round. Goodwin's highlight reels are so good, he looks like westbrook, and thats the kind of energy we need.

God I wish GS would have been more of a 8th or 10th place team(out of secure 7th spot), that way we would get two great picks. Still two 1st rounders are very nice! I mean that could be everything we need. Imagine replacing Watson and Murphy with two guys like Goodwin and whoever is around pick #24...

FJS wrote:

Lava Rock Kid wrote:so we need to finish the season 26-18, I just dont see it

Last year we were 20-22 and we finish 36-30.... you never now.
In fact, we were 31-30 and we finish 36-30.

We cant early go 26-18. We had a favorable schedule from here on out. We had arguably the toughest schedule to start the year, and we're just 1.5 games behind 7th and 8th seed, 2,5 games behind the 6th seed. I think we'll end the month of February with the 6th seed.

Dallas is legitimately terrible. I still can't see the Lakers missing the playoffs....

UTJazzFan_Echo1 wrote:Dallas is legitimately terrible. I still can't see the Lakers missing the playoffs....

I used to think that, but now? With injuries to Howard, Gasol and Hill? I just don't see it.

I have checked the schedules and we have had the most road games, and teams like Clippers, had twice as many 2 and 3 home game stints as us. Most teams have been getting to stay at home for a long time. I mean the only problem with this is, they won their home games. Even if we get a lot home games coming up, we still have to win them.

I honestly believe that Dec. really got us in shape, emotionally and professionally. We just happened to face 5 games against the toughest in the NBA(LAC, MIA, OKC, etc, were all #1 when we faced them). So tides were tough.

Jazz have also had a huge injury to the last person you would want out. Could you imagine were OKC, LAC, GS, POR, MIA, DEN, etc, where they would be if they lost their #1 Guard....That would be Lillard, LeBron, Westbrook, Curry, etc...Look at LAL, MIN...and Nash and Rubio. For losing such a vital piece to our puzzle, we are probably the only team in the league who could have done this good. *LAC and NYK have great benches, but I can't see them winning without Melo or CP3.


Our team is so deep, and with starters producing and bench doing ok, we can really make a run in January. HOU and POR have been losing games. DEN is our worst threat and same with POR. 2nd place NW is guarenteed playoff spot...its unlikely to not get it. If DAl or LAL come back, then 3rd won't be a guarentted spot, however 3rd is pushing it, we need 2nd to secure a spot, unless we take over Hou.

Pretty much, if POR, DEN and HOU, if only one of them can blow it, then were in.

This includes everyone below us, to continue to suffer from injury and turmoil. Min is a close competitor, but they just lost Love, and have some other vital injuries with Rubio making some time each game(his last out game was against us, I think).

POR has Lillard, and HOU has Harden. These two men alone, can win their teams games. We can't rely on one of them to blow the season or drop back. DEN is as deep as us and had a tough go, with just as many road games etc. They are going to get 2nd or 3rd, they have everything needed. Por, as much as I think they are good, but I don't think they have "it" nor does HOU. I mean having one superstar, and a good start unit is fine and all, but their entire line up and mentality has been shaky, and which is why HOU and POR aren't up there with GS and MEM. And are on the brink of losing their spots to us.

StocktonShorts wrote:

UTJazzFan_Echo1 wrote:Dallas is legitimately terrible. I still can't see the Lakers missing the playoffs....

I used to think that, but now? With injuries to Howard, Gasol and Hill? I just don't see it.

The Lakers have to finish out the season 33-15 to have a reasonable shot at making the playoffs. Do you see that happening? I don't...especially while their entire front court is still injured.

RyanStorm wrote:Jazz have also had a huge injury to the last person you would want out. Could you imagine were OKC, LAC, GS, POR, MIA, DEN, etc, where they would be if they lost their #1 Guard....That would be Lillard, LeBron, Westbrook, Curry, etc...Look at LAL, MIN...and Nash and Rubio. For losing such a vital piece to our puzzle, we are probably the only team in the league who could have done this good. *LAC and NYK have great benches, but I can't see them winning without Melo or CP3.

Are you referring to Mo Williams? Because there is no way he compares to any of those guys. Yeah, he puts up some decent numbers and is individually more talented that Earl or Jamaal, but there are plenty of metrics that show the Jazz are actually a better team without him...

Also...I hate to post this much...but I think it's a little silly how we're all so optimistic about the Jazz' remaining schedule. Yeah, we have a load of home games, but in regards to the difficulty of teams the Jazz face between now and April, we have the 4th most difficult schedule, with an average opponent win % of .518

Neon Black wrote:

StocktonShorts wrote:

UTJazzFan_Echo1 wrote:Dallas is legitimately terrible. I still can't see the Lakers missing the playoffs....

I used to think that, but now? With injuries to Howard, Gasol and Hill? I just don't see it.

The Lakers have to finish out the season 33-15 to have a reasonable shot at making the playoffs. Do you see that happening? I don't...especially while their entire front court is still injured.

Was that directed at me? Because I'm pretty sure we're saying exactly the same thing.

Neon Black wrote:Also...I hate to post this much...but I think it's a little silly how we're all so optimistic about the Jazz' remaining schedule.

I agree. But then again I'm a pretty pessimistic person.