Remaining schelude

Post #1 » by **FJS** » Sun Jan 20, 2013 4:06 pm

We have to play:

24 Games at Home
17 games Away

Games vs actual playoff teams: 24
Games vs actual lotery teams: 17

Games vs team with more than 50% W: 18
Games vs Teams with 50%: 6
Games vs -50% W: 17

Games vs East: 15
Games vs West: 26

We are right now:
13-4 at home
9-15 Away

4 - 14 vs actual playoff teams
18 - 5 vs actual non playoff teams

Games vs team with more than 50% W: 3-13
Games vs 50% W team: 1-1
Games vs less than 50% W: 18-5

Games vs East: 10-5
Games vs West : 12-14

babyjax13 · Post #2 » by **babyjax13** » Sun Jan 20, 2013 7:31 pm

Those are pretty interesting numbers. I think with our current play we could go about 23-16. I'm predicting about 10 wins against playoff teams and 13 against non-playoff teams in that scenario. That would make us a 45 win team, which might not be enough to get into the playoffs. I don't think what we've been doing is sustainable though. I see us ending with 42 or 43 wins, which is still decent.

Post #3 » by **StocktonShorts** » Mon Jan 21, 2013 4:20 am

babyjax13 wrote:Those are pretty interesting numbers. I think with our current play we could go about 23-16. I'm predicting about 10 wins against playoff teams and 13 against non-playoff teams in that scenario. That would make us a 45 win team, which might not be enough to get into the playoffs. I don't think what we've been doing is sustainable though. I see us ending with 42 or 43 wins, which is still decent.

Who do you see overtaking the Jazz in the playoff race?

babyjax13 · Post #4 » by **babyjax13** » Mon Jan 21, 2013 7:12 pm

I feel like Houston, Dallas, LA and Minnesota all have a good chance. I wouldn't be surprised if we made the playoffs, but at the same time I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't and that's what my gut is telling me will happen.

Post #5 » by **FJS** » Mon Jan 21, 2013 7:42 pm

Dallas is recovering, Houston and Wolves falling.
Then Lakers is something difficult to say. They had great players, but they are struggling. Can they recover? Sure. But they lose and lose. They are 17-23 and still 4.5 games behind us.

Blazers Schedule:
They are 8th in West with 20-20
13-7 At home
7-13 Away

Next Games
21 Games at home
21 Games away

25 games vs actual playoff teams
17 games vs non actual playoff teams

Rockets Schedule:
They are 9th in West 21-21
14-7 at Home
7-14 away

Next Games:
20 Games at home
20 Games away

22 Games vs Playoff teams
18 games vs non playoff teams

Timberwolves Schedule
10th in West 17-20

11-6 at home
6-14 Away

Next games
24 at home
21 Away

26 games vs playoff teams
19 games vs non playoff teams

Mavericks Schedule
18-24, 11 th in West

11-8 at home
7-16 away

Next games
22 games at home
18 games away

24 games vs playoff teams
16 games vs non playoff teams

Lakers schedule
17-23, 12th in West

12-10 at home
5-13 away

Next games
19 games at home
23 games away

23 games vs playoff teams
19 games vs non playoff teams

SoCalJazzFan · Post #6 » by **SoCalJazzFan** » Mon Jan 21, 2013 8:59 pm

Those are interesting snap shots- thanks.

What surprises me is that the Jazz have better away w/l record to this point than all of those teams. Bodes well for Utah to not only get into the playoffs, but perhaps as a 6th seed. I wouldn't be surprised if Utah works its way up to 5th seed over the next few weeks, and then drops to 6th or 7th by the end of the season.

RyanStorm · Post #7 » by **RyanStorm** » Wed Jan 23, 2013 12:51 am

All looks good for the Jazz...

I would really like a top 6 spot, which would be 2nd place NW. If not 3rd in NW over HOU, or LAL, is still 7th or 8th

Post #8 » by **FJS** » Wed Jan 23, 2013 6:41 pm

I'm a little concerned about we're only 4-14 vs playoff teams... but at least we know we win vs all the teams who aren't better than us (18-5)

RyanStorm · Post #9 » by **RyanStorm** » Thu Jan 24, 2013 12:28 am

If Jazz play the way they have in January, the rest of the season is gonna rock!

MEM, DEN, GS, UTA, POR, MIN, HOU, DAL, SAC, and LAL. Are all fighting for the bottom 5 spots. Division leaders is pretty a given at this point. 2nd place is not fully set in NW, but is in the other two.

Biggest Factors:
-I count over 20 more games between the teams listed above. 7 of them are in April, 12 games til then. In total I count 10 of them on the road.

-We also got 5 games versus division leaders(in western), 3 of them are on the road(these are almost insta-loss), winning any of these games will really help us climb past 41.

-Jazz have only 3 more road trips, 1 x2 game road trip, 1 x3 game road trip, and 1 x4 game road trip. With only 3 more games not played in a home stay(We will come home for one game, and back on the road).

-Jazz have 2 x4 game home stints, and 2 x3 game home stints, and 3 x2 game home stints. Just like what the Clippers had in Dec. where they stayed in LA for a week at a time.

Meaning:
Of our 23 home games, 20 of them will be played back to back at home(not living out of bag even when playing at home like we did in Dec)

Of our 17 away games, 9 of them will be played during a road trip(we are roughly 3/5 away), so I predict a minimum of 5 wins of these 9 games. Leaving us 8 individual away games, 4 of which are versus -.500!

I calculated we can only lose 18 more times, which will roughly be 10 on the road, and 8 at home. Looking at all the facts, I calculate Jazz can be a +45 Win Team.....

If we can keep up with a general 3/5 on the road(which is winning at least half on our trips, and half+ of the 8 individual games) and win 3/1 at home, which is every four games we only lose one(this will be the harder of the 2)

However, based on historical confrontations and quick analysis, I have counted about 12+ potential road losses and 17+ very possible home losses.