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Small market theories
Posted: Tue Feb 5, 2013 7:22 pm
by OldJazzBones
I love the passion and commitment shown on RealGM by true Jazz fans.There is NO question that the championship challenges we face as the smallest market are very unique. Alot of trades work on the checker
but are not realistic. We obviously cannot assemble a "big three". So then on to "superstar plus one plus role players(OKC) possible but not likely. We could have landed Harden but was sending 2 of Favors,Kanter and Hayward worth it?
If we want to land a max player the only way is to give up 2 of our young core,but I strongly believe that the Jazzlearned a costly lesson with AK. Dont look for a max player on a long term deal,another mistake could mean theJazz are packing their bags.So what then?
I think the closest we get would be the model of the 2004 pistons. Mental toughness over measurable talent,
hardnosed defense over high power offense, smart coaching over inexperience.
I would like some ideas of player combinations that fit this model.The superstar days are on hold in Utah.
Favors,Kanter,hayward and Caroll fit.Burks Could fit a scoring role his toughness is still suspect.
Players around the league I see as examples: Vasquez,Bledsoe,Shved,
Players in the draft include MacLemore,Trey burke,poythress,Carter-williams and Otto Porter. I do believe these players will be top 10 picks with the exc of poythress 12-20.
Give me some ideas and comments
Re: Small market theories
Posted: Tue Feb 5, 2013 8:59 pm
by reapaman
The lesson the Jazz learned from AK was never give a tweener max money, it never works out.
And yes Harden was worth Kanter and Hayward easily. I don't know what chances we had to get him because getting martin, lamb and pick including that toronto first is more intriguing.
Plus the reason I hate the "core 4" thing is because there is no chance and I mean 0% thats all 4 of those guys will be here past their rookie contracts. Can't realistacally afford all of them financially while getting a pg and filling out the rest of the roster. That Piston's situation was probley the biggest stroke of luck in sports history and while their philosophy and struture should be emulated. that team was the closest you'll ever come to a champion "money ball" team in basketball. Almost impossible to get a group of guys like that and on those contracts.
Ok back to our guys. Even if you take out the salary situation, our current "core" of young guys won't ever be good enough to be a championship contender, never be capable of a high powered defense and it will be nothing short of a miracle if any of them get an allstar apperance.
I do like the pistons "model" but we are not set up for that. Had we drafted Paul George like we should have and still traded for Favors then mabey but that ship has long sailed. Now we need to trade almost everyone (Favors is like the only real keeper and even he can go if he ask for too much money) and signings along with make the right draft pick or 2 (like the piston got prince late in the 1st round). Its possible but the FO has to be more couragous and cunning then they have been.
Re: Small market theories
Posted: Tue Feb 5, 2013 9:13 pm
by HolyToledo12
I really think Jazz management blew it by not getting Jamers Harden. He was available, the Jazz had the pieces to make the trade happen, but Jazz were too conservative. Jazz need a star on this team and now is the time with 2 number 1 picks and Millsap and Big Al to trade.
Re: Small market theories
Posted: Tue Feb 5, 2013 10:29 pm
by OldJazzBones
The main point of the AK ref is that in this forum I see alot of trade ideas to bring in max type guys and I just don't think it's gonna happen. Need more creativity to succeed in this market and CBA. Ideas?
George would have been great but as you said that ship has sailed .
Re: Small market theories
Posted: Tue Feb 5, 2013 11:04 pm
by OldJazzBones
Being"set-up" for a model means only one thing and that "thing" is what wins championships -- talent evaluation.
Those that excel at it excel at winning. Evaluating not just measurable a but what someone is in the head and heart.
Everyone strokes OKC but luck had alot to do with it. If they pick #1 they would've taken Oden guarenteed. They won't say that now but Oden was a consensus. Did westbrook look this much better than Mayo or Beasley back then?As for Detroit dumars is terrible at the dollars but he and Larry brown evaluated talent well. Billups was a cast off, Ben Wallace was a nobody, prince was seen as a journeyman at best in that draft,Wallace cast off,rip was had for stackhouse,Campbell ,Davis,okur?
Very specific roles....... What STAR is out there that is good enough and will sign for at least 4 years?
Pretty slim. Sad thing is they can't afford a star without the extra $ that comes from the playoffs. Can't get the star without dumping vets and cash for picks!
Re: Small market theories
Posted: Wed Feb 6, 2013 5:11 pm
by gojazzgo
OldJazzBones wrote:Everyone strokes OKC but luck had alot to do with it. If they pick #1 they would've taken Oden guarenteed. They won't say that now but Oden was a consensus.
I don't remember it that way. There was plenty of people arguing for Durant. Oden may have been the more popular choice, but it wasn't a consensus. There were quite a few people/writers that thought Durant was the better player. It recall it being more similar to the WIllimas/Paul situation than Duncan/Everyone else or Shaq/Everyone else.
Here's an article from nba.com before the draft. Even the guy arguing for Portland to pick Oden, mentions how close it is and talks about flipping a coin
http://www.nba.com/draft2007/toppick_debate.htmlHere's Bill simmons arguing with Ford about Durant over Oden(Which is kinda funny reading it now).
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/st ... aft/070627
Re: Small market theories
Posted: Wed Feb 6, 2013 6:30 pm
by reapaman
Well I don't see any great value in free agency this year with the possible exception of tyreke evans who I think people need to really look at him and judge him correctly because he is gonna be a stud once he gets to the right situation.
Jordan hamilton is capable of multiple allstars, he's at least paul pierce lite or mabey pierce 2.0 ... never know. Once he gets minutes he will blow up and right now due to the nuggets situation, he hasn't gotten time to showcase his skills much so he's a secret now. We should be able to get him at a steal if we move now.
Evan Fournier is suffering from the nuggets situation like Hamilton. I don't know if he will ever be an allstar but I don't see why he couldn't be on prince's level as a player.
Kendall Marshall is special and will be a top 5 pg in this league at least ... book it. He's already starting to breakout and his stock is slowly climbing so the jazz need to pounce now before his value skyrockets.
Jeremy Tyler is a guy you have to think outside the box with and have to be willing to wait a couple years for and mold him like the jazz are doing with murphy. I see a dynamic starting stretch four that is capable of play solid defense. Once again you gotta really analyze him and throw away any pre-concieved notions. I'm assuming his value is low right now but warrior fans can give you mixed signals on that.
Probley too late fore guys like Sullinger/Ed Davis and Larry Sander but I'm sure theres some other great value guys with very high potential. Demarcus cousins is also a star we could get for good value. You just have to forget what you know about him now and just convince yourself that you can get him to straighten up in the right environment like Sheed and Randolph did (well to an extent). The talent, the drive, work ethic, ect... is all there for him to be a top player in the league. Its just he's gotta mature up and If I were the jazz, I would be willing to take any chance and risk I need to take to get a guy with his abilities. Not like Cousins is lazy and getting fat or even getting a speeding ticket (as far as I know).
Re: Small market theories
Posted: Wed Feb 6, 2013 7:06 pm
by pickIBL
A few notes... I don't mind Tyreke... being in the Sac situation has hurt his stock (which is good if you are the Jazz). If you are looking for him to play off the ball... that's just not him. I could see him at the one or the point forward... not as a two.
Jeremy Tyler... I wouldn't give up on him if he was on my club...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PMB8CXuhj4Still a big project though.
You are right on Jordan Hamilton... IDK about the Pierce comparisions but he can definitely play and he is burried on the Nuggets bench. Good rebounder for a wing.
Marshall I'm not so high on.
I recently suggested a trade with the Spurs... but there is one thing I have not considered. Next year the Jazz (AND all other NBA teams) will have a salary floor at 90% of the cap. And as Lebron and others are noting... the NBA is making a lot of money this year... so the salary cap is about to shoot up millions of dollars. Plus you are jumping from 80% to 90% on the floor.
Re: Small market theories
Posted: Wed Feb 6, 2013 7:19 pm
by Inigo Montoya
that's a good point.
one thing though - the salary floor jumped from 75% to 85% this year. next year it will be 90% like you said.
http://www.sheridanhoops.com/2012/07/10/salary-cap-same-at-58-million-tax-threshold-unchanged-at-70-3-million/
Re: Small market theories
Posted: Wed Feb 6, 2013 7:27 pm
by pickIBL
Yea I've got a good idea about the CBA changes... but don't have the numbers memorized or anything. You may end up keeping either Al or Millsap because of this though so I think it is worth noting.
And this buyout for Tomic (and a few other prospects I've noted)... with the floor increase you may be looking for short term ways to spend cap money.
Re: Small market theories
Posted: Wed Feb 6, 2013 7:32 pm
by Inigo Montoya
And this buyout for Tomic (and a few other prospects I've noted)... with the floor increase you may be looking for short term ways to spend cap money.
that's another good point - i haven't considered that. it really sucks that this free agent class is so weak.
Re: Small market theories
Posted: Wed Feb 6, 2013 8:39 pm
by countrybama24
We have to play elite defense. This means plus defenders at almost every starting position. It's the reason I don't want a PG who can't guard anyone (such as Marshall) and I'm so high on Bledsoe, because we can't win with the offense first strategy. Make a top 5 defensive team, hope the system makes our offense better than the sum of the parts, and worst case scenario, try and add scoring if we're still not contending.
Re: Small market theories
Posted: Sat Feb 9, 2013 6:37 am
by Neon Black
Tyreke is intriguing to me, but I know the Jazz would probably never consider it.
Re: Small market theories
Posted: Sat Feb 9, 2013 7:35 am
by RyanStorm
Were a good team, mainly cause we have a great bench, but its hard to get both starters and bench to have a great game. 6 guys barely had 22 points versus Bulls, while Millsap alone had that much. Marvin shooting 3 points, and Tinsley shooting 0 a night, is not going to work at all especially since they don't help out on offense much, and aren't amazing defensively. I mean Foye penatrated more than tinsley, which is lame, cause our PG should be penetrating opening up Foye, who then opens up Jefferson...
Jefferson with 30 and Millsap with 20 every night will win games, especially if Mo and Hayward are playing and getting 15 each, plus foye hitting 3s and getting 15 also. I mean that is 95 points from 5 guys. Of course its more like 80ish a night on average, and with a 20-40 point bench production, its good enough. We have something going, I just hope were experienced enough to control our fates to a better outcome, then what has happened.
With our old clutch group back, Mo/Foye/Hayward/Millsap/Jefferson(with these 3 continuing their Jan performances), and with a bench of Tins/Burks/Carroll/Favors/Kanter. I mean if this group stuck together for 2-3 years, it would turn into something great. It wont be great with guys like Marvin and Tins, If they would have scored at all, we might have won the Bulls, 3 points combined for two starters is insane...
We have what we need in Jefferson, Foye and Hayward. If we could get a Randolph type and a Westbrook type from the draft or trade, we would have a real 1st unit, who put 80+ a night. Then Kanter/Favors/Burks/Carroll riding the bench with new 1st round picks would make our bench 30+ a night, cause they would all be starters playing bench roles, which could get us in the top 4, especially if all 5 of our starters pan out like I said.
We just need to find the best PG and PF in the NBA(which is not far out, there is a good chance of getting our PG this draft, and maybe getting a PF with our 2nd 1st round(hope GS hits lottery, like HOU/LAL/POR bump them out!!). Finding the best PG for this team is the most crucial part, but the biggest thing were lacking, yet were still winning. If were lucky enough for a Lawson, Lin, Curry or CP3, we will become a 4th place team next year!!!!
Were fully capable of being ready next year, if GS can land on Lottery, but not in the restriction zone, this would be a godsend, cause we already got a non-lottery teen pick. Imagine if Warrior get 9th, and end up with 10th pick, we could get a lot with a #10 and #17 picks this draft. Still even two 1st round picks are good enough, for someone like Burke.