Let's Review KOC's draft decisions

[StocktonShorts]

Because I'm bored and because the trade deadline is quiet, for each year I'm going to look at the player(s) the Jazz drafted in the first round and the four players immediately after and then rank how the Jazz did. I think it's fair to limit the analysis to five picks rather than cherry picking the one guy who went later in the draft and saying "we couldve had him!"

2000
23. DeShawn Stevenson
24. Dalibor Bagaric
25. Jake Tsakalidis
26. Mamadou N'Diaye
27. Primoz Brezac

DeShawn is pretty easily the best player of this group.

2001
24. Raul Lopez
25. Gerald Wallace
26. Samuel Dalembert
27. Jamaal Tinsley
28. Tony Parker

Ouch. This one really hurts. Amazing that all four guys not named Raul Lopez are still regular rotation players (most of them starters).

2002
18. Curtis Borchardt (I'm going to pretend like this was our pick, since we essentially traded 19 for 18)
19. Ryan Humphrey
20. Kareem Rush
21. Qyntel Woods
22. Casey Jacobsen

Rough group. I can't really fault the Jazz on this one. Borchardt could've been a decent player if not for injuries. Based on Winshares/48 minutes Jacobsen comes out on top of this poor group, and I'd probably put Borchardt 3rd, behind Kareem Rush.

2003
19. Sasha Pavlovic
20. Dahntay Jones
21. Boris Diaw
22. Zoran Planinic
23. Travis Outlaw

I think Diaw wins this group, followed by Jones, then Outlaw, then Pavlovic. So Jazz got the 4th best guy from this group.

2004
* I'm going to include all 15 picks starting with Humphries since the Jazz had 3 picks
14. Kris Humphries
15. Al Jefferson
16. Kirk Snyder
17. Josh Smith
18. J.R. Smith
19. Dorell Wright
20. Jameer Nelson
21. Pavel Podkolzin
22. Viktor Khryapa
23. Sergei Monia
24. Delonte West
25. Tony Allen
26. Kevin Martin
27. Sasha Vujacic
28. Beno Udrih

Jazz do pretty poorly here, landing only one rotation player in three tries out of a group of 15 that features several one-time or near All-Stars (Josh Smith, Jameer Nelson, Al Jefferson, Kevin Martin) and several solid rotation guys (Humphries, J.R. Smith, Tony Allen). With two of the top three picks of this group of 15 the Jazz only landed one rotation guy, none of the near-stars and that one guy they traded after one year.

2005
3. Deron Williams
4. Chris Paul
5. Raymond Felton
6. Martell Webster
7. Charlie Villanueva

Perhaps the best draft on KOC's resume, and you can argue he screwed it up by not drafting Paul, who will go down as the best PG of this generation. At least the Jazz got the second best player from this group. It's better than their average.

2006
14. Ronnie Brewer
15. Cedric Simmons
16. Rodney Carney
17. Shawne Williams
18. Oleksiv Pecherov

Jazz win this one pretty easily.

2007
25. Morris Almond
26. Aaron Brooks
27. Arron Afflalo
28. Tiago Splitter
29. Alando Tucker

Again, ouch. Jazz end up with clearly the worst guy from this quintet.

2008
23. Kosta Koufos
24. Serge Ibaka
25. Nicolas Batum
26. George Hill
27. Darrell Arthur

Jazz get either the 4th best or 5th best player from this group and miss out on three quality starters.

2009
20. Eric Maynor
21. Darren Collison
22. Victor Claver
23. Omri Casspi
24. Byron Mullens

Maynor is probably 3rd best in this group if you're being generous.

2010
9. Gordon Hayward
10. Paul George
11. Cole Aldrich
12. Xavier Henry
13. Ed Davis

It looks like the Jazz have the second-best player from this group. We all love Hayward, but Paul George just made the All-Star team. For me, this one smarts a little, but at least we didn't draft Aldrich or Henry.

2011a
3. Enes Kanter
4. Tristan Thompson
5. Jonas Valanciunas
6. Jan Vesely
7. Bismack Biyombo

It's too early to tell, given how raw all of these guys are, but I think Kanter will end up being the best player from this group. If he's second, it will be to Valanciunas. I'm grateful we didn't grab Vesely.

2011b
12. Alec Burks
13. Markieff Morris
14. Marcus Morris
15. Kawhi Leonard
16. Nikola Vucevic

Again, too early to tell, but Leonard looks like the class of this group. Burks could play himself into the second spot, but right now he's probably fourth behind guys who have gotten more consistent PT.

I welcome your opinions, feedback, criticism, etc.

[habibadobe]

To me this just shows how after like top 5 picks in the draft only half of the guys are still rotation players. Some of the misses look bad but they did not at the time. Injuries are really hard to predict for players sometimes.

With Raul Lopez he looked good, Jazz wanted to keep him in Europe for 1 more year and he blows out his knee then next year does it again. Lopez was never the same after that. Borchardt was known to have injury problems but at 18 they took the gamble but he never really could stay healthy.

At least we got someone from the San Antonio front office. I think they drafted 4 of the top guys out of those groups. They are the model of how to get talent late in the draft.

Also the year with 3 picks I believe the Jazz picked one of them for Dallas and we got a future pick out of it. Been awhile so not positive on that one.

[AingesBurner]

Wow KOC sucks or the scouts are horrible, why have the Jazz kept them? We could have drafted Tinsley or Tony Parker? Seriously? We could have drafted Al Jefferson or Josh Smith, good hell KOC is not as great as people think.

[Winglish]

I have believed for many years that I could do a better job of scouting than what the Jazz scouts are doing on their first round picks. KOC has been solid with trades, however, so I have to give credit where it is due. Many teams' fans would kill to have KOC in their front office. Now let's see what Dennis Lindsey can do.

[countrybama24]

In summary, we're pretty middle of the road. Never hitting a homerun, but (almost) never drafting complete busts.

[DiscoLives4ever]

This is interesting, but somewhat in a vacuum. It'd be interesting to see what other teams have done with their picks in the same format.

[RyanStorm]

Wow, our future could have been so crazy cool....

Tony Parker and Chris Paul, with Ibaka, Josh Smith, Collison and Paul George...

Instead it was:
Dwill, Koufus, Humpries, Maynor, and Hayward.......Honestly Hayward is the only one worth not killing KOC over.


If I could go back in time, and change one thing from all of 2001, I would let Jazz know to pick Tony Parker, and spend the next 10 years building championships and a great team around him, and nothing else could be as important......

[babyjax13]

Koufos has turned into a pretty good player. Certainly a borderline starter or good sixth man at center. But yes, his first round picks aren't the hottest. In the second round, though? Who's better? Maybe Houston, but that's it (and they are worse in the first).

[Neon Black]

I like this thread, and it's interesting to take a look at our drafts from this perspective.

But some of your guys' responses...come on. Good hell. Stop taking things at face value and go look up some statistics and facts on your own. I could easily, easily make a thread and skew it so that KOC looks like a drafting genius. You're really calling for his head for not picking Tony Parker?

EVERYONE passed on Tony Parker. His success in the league was completely unpredictable. And instead of focusing on how the Jazz didn't take Paul George, maybe think about how other GM's picked Wesley Johnson, Ekpe Udoh, Aminu, and Evan Turner (who's good, but Gordon is better) BEFORE Hayward that year. Hell, I remember quite a few of you were hoping the Jazz would pick Cole freaking Alrich or Ed Davis, and sources like Fox News said the Jazz should have taken Babbit. Plus, if Hayward was getting 37 minutes per game like Paul George and was playing in the East, I bet he'd be an all-star, too.

What about Kris Humphries? I hated the pick, but take a look at some of the guys selected before him: Rafael Araujo, Luke Jackson, Robert Swift, Josh Childress...and quite a few no-names selected after.

And someone mentioned that the Jazz missed out by not taking Chris Paul...come on. Chris Paul is awesome, but do you remember who was selected BEFORE Deron? Andrew Bogut and Marvin Williams. Raymond Felton, Charlie Villanueva, Channing Fry, and Ike Diogu were all top-10 picks taken shortly after Deron. I'd say that's a pretty damn good selection for the Jazz in 2005.

You guys are completely ignoring context. Statistically, and I've said this before, the Jazz's track record in draft is better than 2/3 of other GM's. I absolutely think there could have been better choices made at times, but you clowns acting like you'd somehow be better professional scouts than all the other scouts in the league are straight up crazy, or just ignorant.

The draft is a crapshoot. Consensus #1 picks like Kwame Brown are criticized by everyone, yet many a GM would have picked the guy first, because almost everyone thought the kid would be great.

I certainly hope we can become a top-5 drafting team like the Spurs have been, but in the meantime I suggest some of you do your own research for once before taking some post by a fan in a random basketball forum online at face value.

[reapaman]

Well too be fair sometimes as a fan we don't realize everything that goes on into picking these players. I mean theres probably alot of politics involved. If the owner or the majority of the Jazz war room wants a guy then sometimes the GM can be overruled. Mabey he has alot less power than we assume he has. Also in the Hayward versus George thing, mabey they thought Hayward was better for marketing purposes and would more likely stay here so they took the safer route. So mabey KOC had George ahead of Hayward but other factors made them pick hayward instead. I would also say most fans critize GM for picks they wouldve made at the time or they wouldve made worse picks. Its more appropiate to blame the organization rather the gm I guess.

With all that said, he was the face of the Jazz FO so he's gonna get the blame for the Jazz's direction which I have done and will continue to do since he is still the senior executive of Basketball operations which is a key decision maker. Plus this whole thing was apparently his vision so I can only go by what I know. I don't care how bad other teams drafting was or what the concensus was, none of that matters. If they made a bad picks or could have made a better pick thats all that matters. I mean look at OKC. The "concensus" told them not to draft westbrook that high and they did it anyway. The concensus told them harden wouldn't be that good and that it wasn't a good idea to draft ibaka in the 1st round yet they drafted them anyway. Sure they made bad decisions but so far (although aldridge is the only glaring mistake even tho I think its too early to give up on him or mabey Mullins turns out to be consistently legit but I doubt it), Presti has drafted circles around KOC. Presti picks who he wants and finds a way to get them and so far more often than not, he is right.

We often give the teams and scouts too much leway for them making inexusable decisions even if most others wouldve made the same decision. I mean take Oden vs Durant. It was reported before the draft that Oden had injured his hip earlier in life which in lamence terms, made one foot longer than the other (which is a doom spell for injuries especially for big men). You can even see it in the way he walked around that something was wrong and many analyst joked about it saying he gets around like an old man when not on the basketball court. Not to mention Durant was healthy and was doing things in college that were beyond mind boggling and I said then that guy looked like the future GOAT. Yet those idiots still made Oden the concensus #1.

So without going into KOC's draft history any further, I will just him and the Jazz front office just simply haven't been good enough. BTW, george is way better overall player than hayward and hayward would not be an allstar if he was in Georges situation. Plus as it was apparent back then, I think Ed Davis and Larry Sanders will ultimately be better players than Hayward. Hayward was never a bad pick but simply not the best pick at that time.

[Neon Black]

You don't know that, regarding Hayward. If Gordon was receiving 11 more minutes a game, he would (according to his stats adjusted for minutes) be averaging 18 points and 4 assists. He shoots better than George from beyond the arc, from the free throw line and overall. He gets to the line twice as much a George. George is a better rebounder hands down, and a slightly better defender. That's it. I have watched George play many, many times this year. Love the guy. But I'm still going with Hayward.

As for O'Connor, again, I'm not saying he couldn't have made better selections. As fans I suppose we get to criticize any decision we want. But some of the arguments I've seen and criticisms I've heard just come across as so reactionary and uninformed. You simply can't take away the context surrounding a draft pick. It's everything. Past performance, pre-draft testing and what scouts and experts are saying will always heavily weigh into a decision, but frankly they will be wrong about players each and every year. I didn't buy it when half the "experts" thought Kyrie Irving wasn't athletic or skilled enough to be a top PG.

I'm with you that Presti has drafted masterfully....but consider the fact that the Jazz haven't had that many top picks to work with in good drafts. When you weigh draft position against player performance for about the last 10 years, San Antonio comes across as the best drafting team, statistically. The Jazz are about 8th.

I'm not just making sh*t up or vomiting up opinions. These are facts based on statistics.

[hoops4life]

Thank you, Neon Black. I fully agree.

It is easy to sit here and second guess, hindsight is 20/20 but I guess that is the role of the fan. KOC missed on Tony Parker but so did every other team in the league.

Deron v Paul either way they wouldn't be playing for the Jazz now, so it doesn't matter. HAHA, Jazz taking Hayward over George because he is white... you sir are hilarious. Sure there were some bad ones in there Kirk Snyder and Morris Almond but they looked like scorers and that is what we needed.

I guarantee it isn't as easy as you make it sound and there is no way that you could do better.

[millslapper]

i'm pretty sure, when you do this for all teams, most of them will have similar "stats".

[hoops4life]

I'd be willing to bet other teams would be worse.

[pickIBL]

The Jazz could definitely draft better but there are teams that do worse. But just listing players isn't a full deconstruction.

Whenever Marcus Fizer hits the draft bust list I always make my agrument why it is stupid. I still wonder hey...what would have happened if Tim Floyd didn't take him after Elton Brand and try and play Fizer at SF... who is clearly not a SF. What if those injuries didn't happen. What could Marcus Fizer have been back in the day on another team.

So it is never as simple as a list.

[BJSmiles]

What about Paul Milsap? Plucking him out of the 2nd round should count for something, right?

KOC has done pretty well. Consider how many constant bottom dwelling teams have screwed up top 3 picks over and over again. We may not be the Spurs, but we certainly aren't the Bobcats. To those that think they could do better, go play NBA2k13 or something... in your moms basement...

[Neon Black]

This is a few years old, but my point in sharing it is to show that judging team draft performance doesn't have to be a subjective vomit fest. You can analyze it. And when you do, the Jazz are in the top 3rd of the league.

http://www.82games.com/bestdraftingteams.htm

[Neon Black]

And maybe we should just be grateful we aren't one of these teams:



I mean...the Blazers have had 5 lottery picks in the last several years and have completely struck out.

[BJSmiles]

This is a few years old, but my point in sharing it is to show that judging team draft performance doesn't have to be a subjective vomit fest. You can analyze it. And when you do, the Jazz are in the top 3rd of the league.

http://www.82games.com/bestdraftingteams.htm

This also proves to me that even teams who draft the best or really well aren't necessarily the best. I guess there is more to the job than who you draft. In those other areas, I think KOC has been very good to excellent.

[reapaman]

You don't know that, regarding Hayward. If Gordon was receiving 11 more minutes a game, he would (according to his stats adjusted for minutes) be averaging 18 points and 4 assists. He shoots better than George from beyond the arc, from the free throw line and overall. He gets to the line twice as much a George. George is a better rebounder hands down, and a slightly better defender. That's it. I have watched George play many, many times this year. Love the guy. But I'm still going with Hayward.

Well thats where we disagree, I think George is a significantly better defender than Hayward, I mean leaps and bound better. Yes Hayward does well versus jump shooters due to his legnth and his transition defense is decent but the problem is that most of the time guys are driving on him and/or coming off of screens which he get destroyed in that regard (and no the coming off of screen part has nothing to do with anyone else but his inability to keep up). George holds up alot better and he can do the things hayward is good at better also especially guarding jump shooters since he's longer and taller.

Also many of those stats don't take into account that George is the man on his team and get significantly more defensive attention and has more pressure on him than Hayward not to mention he plays alot more against other teams starters. I don't think his per 36 numbers would look the same if you put him in that situation but thats just my opinion.

As for KOC, people can be too critical of Gm's your correct but they can also be too critical on coaches too. So you could say the same thing to both groups, "If you know so much about coaching or being a GM then why aren't you a coach or a GM?" Then again this is a basketball forum so not much else to do except argue and complain so ...