Predict the Utah Jazz upcoming season

[FJS]

52-30. book it!

[Inigo Montoya]

I think it is a mistake to rely on the health of this team. This core has health issues every year, whether they start the season healthy or not. In fact, Hayward was the most durable player of this team's core.

And even if we'll have a healthy season, the added wins we'd get because of that will be mitigated by the strengthening of the west.

And as for having $25-30$M in cap space next July, most of it will go into retaining our own players--players who are already on the team. Hood will make 2.3M next season. His next contract will pay him 10M+ more than he's currently making. Exum will make 5M, and will likely get a 15M offer from someone whether he's worth it or not. That's 20M gone on only two players already, and we still haven't talked about Favors who'll be UFA, or replacing JJ whose contract is also up. And add to that that the Jazz aren't an attractive free agent destination for marquee players.

[Pass_the_rock]

I think people will be surprised just how much we will miss Hayward's defense in addition to his offense.

Hah? how so? So Jazz lost Haywood and his negative .08 DRPM and got Sefolosha and his positive 2.27 DRPM, Mitchell is projected a good defender, Ingles will get more minutes and is a better defender. And here you are thinking the team will miss defense of an average defender. WTF?

The only scenario I see it if Hood and Burks are playing 35+ mpg together, which is highly unlikely.

[stitches]

I think people will be surprised just how much we will miss Hayward's defense in addition to his offense.

Hah? how so? So Jazz lost Haywood and his negative .08 DRPM and got Sefolosha and his positive 2.27 DRPM, Mitchell is projected a good defender, Ingles will get more minutes and is a better defender. And here you are thinking the team will miss defense of an average defender. WTF?

The only scenario I see it if Hood and Burks are playing 35+ mpg together, which is highly unlikely.

Ingles is not a better defender. And relying on a rookie to be a great defender is foolish IMO. He might end up being a great defender eventually, but rookies are almost never positive on the defensive end. Also, Hayward is not an average defender. He's well above average.

https://public.tableau.com/shared/46C7GPS7T?:display_count=yes&:showVizHome=no

He was one of only 7 players in the league being positive defending against every single play type.

[Pass_the_rock]

I think people will be surprised just how much we will miss Hayward's defense in addition to his offense.

Hah? how so? So Jazz lost Haywood and his negative .08 DRPM and got Sefolosha and his positive 2.27 DRPM, Mitchell is projected a good defender, Ingles will get more minutes and is a better defender. And here you are thinking the team will miss defense of an average defender. WTF?

The only scenario I see it if Hood and Burks are playing 35+ mpg together, which is highly unlikely.

Ingles is not a better defender. And relying on a rookie to be a great defender is foolish IMO. He might end up being a great defender eventually, but rookies are almost never positive on the defensive end. Also, Hayward is not an average defender. He's well above average.

https://public.tableau.com/shared/46C7GPS7T?:display_count=yes&:showVizHome=no

He was one of only 7 players in the league being positive defending against every single play type.

That right there tells me that your stat is super flawed and misleading. So excuse me while I go with DRPM.

And in 537 minutes with Haywood ON and Gobert OFF the team had DRTG of 117.8 and gave up TS% of 58.2
While with Gobert ON Haywood and the team were much much better (104.6 & 52.5).
So yeah, an average non difference maker who rode the coattails of the most dominant defender in the NBA. His defensive impact will be easily covered by other players. Jazz just added Sefolosha. Helllooo!!!. Why did you just choose to forget about him in your post?

[stitches]

That right there tells me that your stat is super flawed and misleading. So excuse me while I go with DRPM.

And in 537 minutes with Haywood ON and Gobert OFF the team had DRTG of 117.8 and gave up TS% of 58.2
While with Gobert ON Haywood and the team were much much better (104.6 & 52.5).
So yeah, an average non difference maker who rode the coattails of the most dominant defender in the NBA. His defensive impact will be easily covered by other players. Jazz just added Sefolosha. Helllooo!!!. Why did you just choose to forget about him in your post?

This says a lot about Gobert. Not much if anything about Hayward. We all know that Gobert is the defensive force and identity of this team. This doesn't change the fact that Hayward was a pretty good defender, while being our best offensive player. This has value that cannot be easily replaced.

We will see how Sefolosha integrates within the team and how much of a role he will play. There is a serious difference between playing vs starters and playing 10 minutes as a sub. If you are trying to make an argument about Hayward defensive impact being replaced, you will need to look at Hood or whoever takes the minutes vacated by Hayward.

I guess we'll have to wait and see. I still think we are top 5 defensive team, as long as Rudy is healthy, but I feel like people are jumping the gun if they think we will easily go to an even higher defensive level with Hayward off the team.

[Pass_the_rock]

I guess we'll have to wait and see. I still think we are top 5 defensive team, as long as Rudy is healthy, but I feel like people are jumping the gun if they think we go to an even higher defensive level with Hayward off the team.

Why not? I showed you an example of haywood's low defensive impact, like the team being very bad with Gobert OFF. Most wings have low defensive impact. Favors returning to top form would have a much bigger impact than haywood could ever do on defense.

[stitches]

I guess we'll have to wait and see. I still think we are top 5 defensive team, as long as Rudy is healthy, but I feel like people are jumping the gun if they think we go to an even higher defensive level with Hayward off the team.

Why not? I showed you an example of haywood's low defensive impact, like the team being very bad with Gobert OFF. Most wings have low defensive impact. Favors returning to top form would have a much bigger impact than haywood could ever do on defense.

Because Hayward was a great defender who was doing great against wide variety of attacks from the opponents as I pointed out. Team and lineup numbers are that - team and lineup numbers, they show you what lineups do, not what individuals do. When Gobert was off the floor teams were waltzing into the paint and scoring at will at the rim mainly by attacking our other horrible defensive bigs. This is where you look at how the individual player performs so you wouldn't attribute bad defensive plays by Lyles, Diaw and Hood, etc. to to the wrong guy.

Another thing worth pointing out and pondering - it's much easier to play defense with a set defense... like... when you score the ball and the opponent can't get a step on you. It's going to be interesting to see how our impending offensive struggles will affect our defense.

[Pass_the_rock]

I guess we'll have to wait and see. I still think we are top 5 defensive team, as long as Rudy is healthy, but I feel like people are jumping the gun if they think we go to an even higher defensive level with Hayward off the team.

Why not? I showed you an example of haywood's low defensive impact, like the team being very bad with Gobert OFF. Most wings have low defensive impact. Favors returning to top form would have a much bigger impact than haywood could ever do on defense.

Because Hayward was a great defender who was doing great against wide variety of attacks from the opponents as I pointed out. Team and lineup numbers are that - team and lineup numbers, they show you what lineups do, not what individuals do. When Gobert was off the floor teams were waltzing into the paint and scoring at will at the rim mainly by attacking our other horrible defensive bigs. This is where you look at how the individual player performs so you wouldn't attribute bad defensive plays by Lyles, Diaw and Hood, etc. to to the wrong guy.

Another thing worth pointing out and pondering - it's much easier to play defense with a set defense... like... when you score the ball and the opponent can't get a step on you. It's going to be interesting to see how our impending offensive struggles will affect our defense.

lol, you post like you're looking forward to it, kind of like you'd love to be proven right. Also it seems to me that you're a big haywood fan (calling him a great defender? hmm...ok). But I agree that it's going to be interesting to see how the Jazz do on both ends this coming season. I'm more optimistic than you I guess.

[Pass_the_rock]

Team and lineup numbers are that - team and lineup numbers, they show you what lineups do, not what individuals do. When Gobert was off the floor teams were waltzing into the paint and scoring at will at the rim mainly by attacking our other horrible defensive bigs. This is where you look at how the individual player performs so you wouldn't attribute bad defensive plays by Lyles, Diaw and Hood, etc. to to the wrong guy.

BTW, I ran the lineups with Gobert ON and haywood OFF (604 minutes). Rudy is still hawt ( 104 & 52.1)

As I said haywood impact is small, even you keep calling him a great defender every day for the rest of your life.

[eLo]

I think it is a mistake to rely on the health of this team. This core has health issues every year, whether they start the season healthy or not. In fact, Hayward was the most durable player of this team's core.

And even if we'll have a healthy season, the added wins we'd get because of that will be mitigated by the strengthening of the west.

And as for having $25-30$M in cap space next July, most of it will go into retaining our own players--players who are already on the team. Hood will make 2.3M next season. His next contract will pay him 10M+ more than he's currently making. Exum will make 5M, and will likely get a 15M offer from someone whether he's worth it or not. That's 20M gone on only two players already, and we still haven't talked about Favors who'll be UFA, or replacing JJ whose contract is also up. And add to that that the Jazz aren't an attractive free agent destination for marquee players.

retain or not we gonna see who will be worthed

[Inigo Montoya]

retain or not we gonna see who will be worthed

If we retain all those players, we'd just be as good as next season's team. We're not going to improve leaps and bounds simply by retaining our own players, especially after we got weaker by losing Hayward. We're going to be tread-milling for the foreseeable future. Point being - touting cap space next July is misleading, since most of it will go to retain what we already have. It's not going to improve the team, only keep it at the same level.

[stitches]

lol, you post like you're looking forward to it, kind of like you'd love to be proven right. Also it seems to me that you're a big haywood fan (calling him a great defender? hmm...ok). But I agree that it's going to be interesting to see how the Jazz do on both ends this coming season. I'm more optimistic than you I guess.

I'm not really looking forward to it. If you've read my posts for the last... while, you'd know how much I dreaded this situation and how much I hate the position we were put in by building our team around a player who didn't appreciate it and left the first chance he got. I've been quite salty about Hayward leaving, but this doesn't mean we have to skew reality and minimize his effect once he left. He was a great player for us and I think we will miss him on both ends of the floor.

[MeestR]

Just a thought and maybe a tangent but if Thabos getting significant playing time, we will have more things we'll be worrying about than whatifs about Hayward.

Sent from my SM-N900V using RealGM mobile app

[Pass_the_rock]

lol, you post like you're looking forward to it, kind of like you'd love to be proven right. Also it seems to me that you're a big haywood fan (calling him a great defender? hmm...ok). But I agree that it's going to be interesting to see how the Jazz do on both ends this coming season. I'm more optimistic than you I guess.

I'm not really looking forward to it. If you've read my posts for the last... while, you'd know how much I dreaded this situation and how much I hate the position we were put in by building our team around a player who didn't appreciate it and left the first chance he got. I've been quite salty about Hayward leaving, but this doesn't mean we have to skew reality and minimize his effect once he left. He was a great player for us and I think we will miss him on both ends of the floor.

Meh, he was clear second player in terms of impact on the team. A little hardworking player who was manufactured into a star by an industrious organization. He's not an diamond in the rough like LBJ that saved a sorry franchise like the Cavs. Jazz just made an effort to make him good, gave him shots, responsibility. The shots can be redistributed among other players, mainly Hood who would love the opportunity, bigs will get more touches, Mitchell will get his chance. Playmaking duties will be easily covered by Rubio. And I think defensive worries are laughable. The main concern is injuries to the remaining players. Haywood would definitely provide more cover in a lot areas.

[eLo]

retain or not we gonna see who will be worthed

If we retain all those players, we'd just be as good as next season's team. We're not going to improve leaps and bounds simply by retaining our own players, especially after we got weaker by losing Hayward. We're going to be tread-milling for the foreseeable future. Point being - touting cap space next July is misleading, since most of it will go to retain what we already have. It's not going to improve the team, only keep it at the same level.

in many ways i agree, but if Hood and Fav show that they can stay healthy we will be all right, and if all those names You mentioned wont play good enough upcoming season we will have some mo to get even a star caliber player... although i dont know who it could be, as next summer fa will be even tougher for us than this year

[Inigo Montoya]

retain or not we gonna see who will be worthed

If we retain all those players, we'd just be as good as next season's team. We're not going to improve leaps and bounds simply by retaining our own players, especially after we got weaker by losing Hayward. We're going to be tread-milling for the foreseeable future. Point being - touting cap space next July is misleading, since most of it will go to retain what we already have. It's not going to improve the team, only keep it at the same level.

in many ways i agree, but if Hood and Fav show that they can stay healthy we will be all right, and if all those names You mentioned wont play good enough upcoming season we will have some mo to get even a star caliber player... although i dont know who it could be, as next summer fa will be even tougher for us than this year

Favors is going to be UFA--he could be healthy, play well, and then go and sign with another team. As for getting a star in free agency--when had it happened in the past, that the Jazz were able to sign a star in free agency? We're not a destination for this tier of players, even when we have the cap space for it.

[stitches]

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[zero24gravity]

I'm not really looking forward to it. If you've read my posts for the last... while, you'd know how much I dreaded this situation and how much I hate the position we were put in by building our team around a player who didn't appreciate it and left the first chance he got. I've been quite salty about Hayward leaving, but this doesn't mean we have to skew reality and minimize his effect once he left. He was a great player for us and I think we will miss him on both ends of the floor.

I hate you for making me admit that you're right in this situation.

Stupid Haywood.

[eLo]

Read on Twitter

its not like i tottaly disagree but this stuff its quite shallow, C's should have relatively better rs after this ofseason in which they get better and east is going down with overall quality of player out there, despite Jazz, Grizz/PTB should be better etc

If we retain all those players, we'd just be as good as next season's team. We're not going to improve leaps and bounds simply by retaining our own players, especially after we got weaker by losing Hayward. We're going to be tread-milling for the foreseeable future. Point being - touting cap space next July is misleading, since most of it will go to retain what we already have. It's not going to improve the team, only keep it at the same level.

in many ways i agree, but if Hood and Fav show that they can stay healthy we will be all right, and if all those names You mentioned wont play good enough upcoming season we will have some mo to get even a star caliber player... although i dont know who it could be, as next summer fa will be even tougher for us than this year

Favors is going to be UFA--he could be healthy, play well, and then go and sign with another team. As for getting a star in free agency--when had it happened in the past, that the Jazz were able to sign a star in free agency? We're not a destination for this tier of players, even when we have the cap space for it.

well for team like us we have to sign a player who is/could be star in the making, i know its easy to say but reality looks like like that, if upcoming season wont be good enough i guess we would have to take some risky decision