Putting Dante Exum into perspective

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Putting Dante Exum into perspective 

Post#1 » by babyjax13 » Sun Oct 21, 2018 6:52 pm

I've been thinking a lot about Dante Exum - who he is as a player, and where he is in his career. Especially, what kind of progression can we expect from him?

Age (compared to seniors in 2018 NBA draft)
DeVonte' Grahm: 23 years, 241 days
Dante Exum: 23 years, 100 days
Jevon Carter: 23 years, 37 days
Grayson Allen: 23 years, 13 days
Chandler Hutchison: 22 years, 178 days
Svi Mykhailiuk: 21 years, 133 days

Dante is still around the same age as several rookies, and he's had 5 years of learning from NBA coaches. Generally it's hoped that seniors will be productive NBA players, so were Dante drafted this year the expectation would be that he can contribute usefully to a rotation and would still have some upside left.

Progression
It's a bit hard to track progression. I've normalized his first several years to 20 minutes per game.
PER 20 is used because he's been either slightly below or slightly above 20mpg each year and it's pretty reasonable to expect that the statistics would scale. Obviously there are sample size issues with Dante's injury history.

Rookie year: 35/31/65 shooting, 4.8p 1.4r 2.2a .45s .18b 1.26to 1.62f ... .4 FTA
Year 2: 43/30/80 shooting, 6.7p 2.15r 1.82a .322s .22b 1.29t0 2.37f ... 1.1 FTA
Year 3: 48/28/81 shooting, 9.64p 2.26r 3.69a .714s .238b 1.67to 1.67f ... 2.2 FTA

Everything looks pretty promising here. Reasonable progression every year. Scoring efficiency has improved, scoring more points, assist to turnover ratio took a big jump last season. Points/20 have increased by 1.9 each season, rebounds/minute remain about static, steals have fluctuated, blocks have improved marginally, and FTA have doubled each season.

This is completely unscientific, but if we expect a similar trend of improvement to continue, we should see something around

Bad projection
48/30/80 shooting, 11.7p 2.3r 3a .7s .23b 1.6to 1.6pf ... 4 FTA

For reference, here is what he looks like two games in:
57/50/73 shooting, 11.8p 2.72r 1.8a 0s 0b .9to .9pf ... 5 FTA

Some things are going to normalize, and his role has changed so I don't expect a large increase in assists like last season (I expect a small regression from last year), but in this tiny sample size and from the eye test the expected progression seems pretty achievable.

Not sure what this does for people, but as long as he progresses reasonably Dante is definetely worth his contract, and there is always the possibility of a large jump at some point (he still has potential). But I'm not banking on him becoming a star, instead I see a fairly elite perimeter defender who isn't a negative on offense. That's a valuable thing - and puts him as pretty solidly one of the 10 best players in the 2014 class (but not top 5).
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Re: Putting Dante Exum into perspective 

Post#2 » by GobertReport » Sun Oct 21, 2018 8:50 pm

I’ve been on Dante island this whole time.


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Re: Putting Dante Exum into perspective 

Post#3 » by vryadli » Sun Oct 21, 2018 9:00 pm

The only problem with Dante - he looks fragile. Unfortunately it that is not uncommon for light-bodied super-fast players. In my pick-up team the best and fastest player used to break ankle on the second-third game of local competitions.
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Re: Putting Dante Exum into perspective 

Post#4 » by babyjax13 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:23 am

vryadli wrote:The only problem with Dante - he looks fragile. Unfortunately it that is not uncommon for light-bodied super-fast players. In my pick-up team the best and fastest player used to break ankle on the second-third game of local competitions.


He honestly looks really solid now to me, but also a bit afraid even though he's really attacking the rim. Not sure how to feel about it because I still cringe every time he gets fouled - which is frequent so far.
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Re: Putting Dante Exum into perspective 

Post#5 » by Pass_the_rock » Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:47 am

why do you say 5 years when it's really 4?
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Re: Putting Dante Exum into perspective 

Post#6 » by KDBG » Mon Oct 22, 2018 1:16 pm

It's 2 games, but Exum is averaging 21/5/3 per 36. I don't cringe as much, cause he has a man's body now. I think he is going to be great. I really do envision a Mitchell/Exum backcourt, as soon as this season. I hope Rubio embraces being a 6th man, cause I do want him here.

I'm actually shocked how good Exum looks. I thought he was destined to be just a role player, defensive stopper.
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Re: Putting Dante Exum into perspective 

Post#7 » by stitches » Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:25 pm

vryadli wrote:The only problem with Dante - he looks fragile. Unfortunately it that is not uncommon for light-bodied super-fast players. In my pick-up team the best and fastest player used to break ankle on the second-third game of local competitions.

I don't think he looks fragile, his body and frame look pretty damn great to me... but I do think that he lacks balance and great body control in the air. That's why he flies all over the place(and often to 3d row) every time he gets bumped even slightly.

We need Trey Lyles to teach him some proper proprioception.
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Re: Putting Dante Exum into perspective 

Post#8 » by KqWIN » Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:02 pm

A lot of people thought we might regret giving him the deal we did...and I think that may be true. We’re going to regret only getting him for 3 years.

With that said, I’m still very happy with the deal. I expected him to take the QO, so this is a much better position than I expected. I fully believe in his talent and work ethic. He just needs to stay healthy.
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Re: Putting Dante Exum into perspective 

Post#9 » by zero24gravity » Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:35 pm

Even though the Memphis game was his least impressive of the season, and he missed the attempt ... that dunk he tried was aggressive and impressive. No fear. The team needed a a fire under it's backside & that moment could have done it. .... it's just too bad he missed.
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Re: Putting Dante Exum into perspective 

Post#10 » by DudeJustDidThis » Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:38 pm

How's that first step been looking this season?

Much respect to Utah for sticking with him through all of his setbacks.
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Re: Putting Dante Exum into perspective 

Post#11 » by Catchall » Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:46 am

Does it bother anyone else that the team's priority is to score at the rim and shoot 3s, and Ricky Rubio isn't very consistent at either? Maybe his three point shooting will be okay this year?
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Re: Putting Dante Exum into perspective 

Post#12 » by ForeverRDjazz » Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:57 am

Catchall wrote:Does it bother anyone else that the team's priority is to score at the rim and shoot 3s, and Ricky Rubio isn't very consistent at either? Maybe his three point shooting will be okay this year?

I'd love to see DM shooting the mid range ball a LOT more. Get defender on his back draw foul and make more mid range shoots. He's my number one player I'd love taking more. Like to see Ricky going in for more layup. Which I felt he finished last year very strong around the rim. Great with the kick out pass when he draw the D in. Open jump shot on the line would help DM and not trying to make him the PG. O'Neal hasn't looked good at all. Niang has really surprise me this year. Solid minutes when given a chance.
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Re: Putting Dante Exum into perspective 

Post#13 » by zero24gravity » Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:14 pm

DudeJustDidThis wrote:How's that first step been looking this season?

Much respect to Utah for sticking with him through all of his setbacks.


His step looks really strong & fast. But what really separates him is that once he's got past the defender with that first step, his long stride makes it near impossible for the defender to catch up, even on an angle. Defenses either need to help (meaning a drive & kick opportunity) or he'll get to take a high % shot at the rim. He's still got to work a bit on finishing in different ways, (dunks and putting it high off the backboard are his go-to moves) but it's not like he's doing a bad job at the rim.
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Re: Putting Dante Exum into perspective 

Post#14 » by sipclip » Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:18 pm

Catchall wrote:Does it bother anyone else that the team's priority is to score at the rim and shoot 3s, and Ricky Rubio isn't very consistent at either? Maybe his three point shooting will be okay this year?
I hate his game for the most part. It isn't fun having a pg who everytime he shoots you are thinking in the back of your mind don't shoot. He gets hot sometimes but when he is bad he is really really bad.

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Re: Putting Dante Exum into perspective 

Post#15 » by Catchall » Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:35 pm

In terms of spacing the floor and putting pressure on the defense, the best guard combination would be Donovan Mitchell and Grayson Allen (or possibly Alec Burks). Both those guys can pull up from 28 feet, make good decisions with the ball, and explode to get on top of the rim. Unless Ricky is really a maestro with the ball in a way that makes our offense go, he should probably be coming off the bench, imo.
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Re: Putting Dante Exum into perspective 

Post#16 » by Luigi » Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:57 pm

I really liked what I saw from Exum against Houston.

He played excellent defense. He might be one of like 3 guys alive who can stay in front of Harden. He anticipated Harden's travel step back move very well, and is long enough to at least guard it. Showed more than just speed, he also showed instincts.

On his 3, he played his assignment very well, got to the spot, and made his shot. He also got to the rim a few times when we desperately needed points...but didn't finish. Still, I was encouraged at those drives when they were needed, they were all a tiny bit away from finishes, and might drop next time.
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Re: Putting Dante Exum into perspective 

Post#17 » by erudite23 » Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:19 pm

I'm bullish on Dante. I have written him off entirely at least 3 or 4 times during his rookie contract. The fact that he has come back and is contributing the way he is right now is a major testament to his competitive will and love for the game--along with just his pure natural ability.

I still see more than a glimmer of stardom there for him. He can clearly beat anyone in the league off the dribble, and he's finally starting to figure out how to finish around the rim, which as always been his biggest issue. His handle is still lacking, and he makes maddening decisions at times, but overall I can honestly say he's ahead of where I expected him to be. At the very least, he's giving us a big boost on our 2nd unit for each of the next two years. But I expect more. I think he unseats Ricky as the starter and that Rubio is either let go in FA or comes back as a 6th man/3rd guard type (not very likely).

I believe you'll see Dante average 20+ for a full season at some point in his career and perhaps make an All Star game or two. He's taken a long time to get where he is, but you can see all the pieces there and he's finally starting to put them together. If he ever figures it all the way out, there's definitely star potential there, even after all this time. Really unique player and career path.
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Re: Putting Dante Exum into perspective 

Post#18 » by KDBG » Fri Oct 26, 2018 4:55 am

DudeJustDidThis wrote:How's that first step been looking this season?

Much respect to Utah for sticking with him through all of his setbacks.

It looks even quicker before the ACL tear. Part of it is that he is absolutely fearless now. He's almost too aggressive now though. He needs to learn how to absorb contact, so he doesn't slam to the floor every game. His shot looks so much better as well. Can potentially be a perfect sidekick to Mitchell. If the Warriors have the best shooting backcourt in the league, we will have the most explosive/athletic.
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Re: Putting Dante Exum into perspective 

Post#19 » by DudeJustDidThis » Fri Oct 26, 2018 5:43 am

KDBG wrote:
DudeJustDidThis wrote:How's that first step been looking this season?

Much respect to Utah for sticking with him through all of his setbacks.

It looks even quicker before the ACL tear. Part of it is that he is absolutely fearless now. He's almost too aggressive now though. He needs to learn how to absorb contact, so he doesn't slam to the floor every game. His shot looks so much better as well. Can potentially be a perfect sidekick to Mitchell. If the Warriors have the best shooting backcourt in the league, we will have the most explosive/athletic.


Stat wise it's looking like they haven't played too many minutes together. Shame. But from what I've seen, especially last year in the playoffs vs. OKC, he's shown legitimate improvements. An Exum/Mitchell backcourt would fare decently defensively I would reckon as well.
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Re: Putting Dante Exum into perspective 

Post#20 » by anish23 » Fri Oct 26, 2018 2:03 pm

Big fan of Ricky here but do you guys think we should give Exum a go at starting ?
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