Our Perimeter Offense Sucks (Offense down 2.6, Defense down 1.8)

[dr0welf]

Does anyone want to try and tell me the offense isn't the problem?

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Right now both offense and defense are problems at times. I feel effort is lacking at times. I feel shooting is flat from most people and layups are still being missed regularly from most the team. Luckily Gobert and Favors have been better at cleaning those up this year.

Our defense might be part to do with the new rule changes as we are a physical team and we are now getting fouls called on us at a much higher rate if I had to guess. This also makes it to where teams are getting a lot more FT opportunities and scoring more because of the FT shot.

We need some shots to start falling regularly, this will help in the spacing problems on offense. Corner three misses are insanely low.

We need better effort on defense. Rudy has been pulled out of the paint more due to other teams offensive designs. We need our guards to keep position better and faster recognition and rotation from the other big on the floor.

Honestly I'm just not sold on this team buildup (chemistry or no chemistry). We need a PF that can shoot from distance (Zinger, AD, Gasol, Harris, Bjelica, etc) and still play defense on the other side to cover when Gobert has to defend further away from the basket.

Maybe try some zone D? to change up in games.

[Lava Rock Kid]

We need Carmelo.

He will either help win or tank

[Luigi]

Does anyone want to try and tell me the offense isn't the problem?

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

I'll get back to you when there's a game where we score a lot, disregard everything that's happened before, and then I'll say it's not the problem.

You make a good point about how we are doing relative to the league. Right now we are equally at offense and defense. We used to be better at defense, so that's a further fall. Still, I think our bigs have been doing better on offense, and our perimeter has gotten worse so far. So relative to our own offense, there is a disparity there.

We have to look at the rule change here. Our bully defense isn't working as well anymore. But our motion offense should be working better. I agree it's helping Gobert inside a bit. But we should be generating better looks for Mitchell and others. It can't all just be us missing open shots.

I still believe in this team. But I do wanna see a different offensive set.

[Luigi]

Well, nineteen games in and the perimeter offense still sucks. We are now down 3.1 points relative to the league. (The defense is down 3.5 points relative to the league, but that's another thread.)

Here's the Ortgs compared to last year (continuity!):
130 Gobert (+8)
121 Favors (+2)
109 Burks (+7)
108 Crowder (+9)
103 Ingles (-12)
101 Exum (-9)
99 Mitchell (-4)
98 Rubio (-7)
92 O'Neale (-13)

1. The bigs are doing better than last year.
2. The guards are doing worse than last year (except for Burks).
3. Same team (continuity!).
WHAT EXPLAINS THE DIFFERENCE???

I think it's clear that 1) we lack the offensive execution we had last year, and that 2) we aren't keeping up with the new offense oriented league. We get meaningless passes and picks way outside the 3 point line. And while other teams are getting more out of their guards, we are getting less (Burks, the exception, is finally getting a little respect). This is disconcerting because our front office believed that our offense would greatly benefit from freedom of movement. I think they were right, we should benefit. But we aren't, because we fail to execute even the most basic offensive set and settle instead for picks for switches and contested 3s out of our guards. The bigs are just dunking more, and Crowder is shooting better.

[PharmD]

The following rotation players are shooting >30% from 3:
Burks 42%
Ingles 38% (33.6% since 2nd game of season)
Rubio 32%

Niang is also shooting 38% but he doesn't even dress anymore. A lot of putrid shooters are putting up a lot of threes. Jae Crowder is shooting 20.5% on 6.8 threes/game over the last 10.

Donovan+Crowder+Ricky is shooting 17.5 3PA/g at exactly 30%

[KqWIN]

Mitchell, Rubio, and Exum are still garbage and we're now 1/4 of the way through the season. Still waiting on them to regress back to the mean....I hope. Burks has regressed back to the mean as expected, but that's the wrong direction. Jae has also regressed a ton. He is way below league average efficiency once again. AB is right at league average, but the other 3 guys in the bench rotation are way below it. Exum and O'Neale are legitimately awful offensive players. If they were on other teams, I don't think they would be in the rotation. Crowder is hot and cold, but his overall efficiency as a whole is not good at all. Burks is also inconsistent.

I don't really have an answer as to why these guys are so bad, but they are. Everyone is just shooting and playing horribly. I also think they aren't good enough to be helped by the freedom of movement. There's no reason to grab or be physical with our players because they should be left wide open, and believe me, they are being left wide open. The only one who isn't being left wide open is Ingles, and I do believe he is getting more foul calls and FT's...but his shooting is way down, and it doesn't seem to be random at this point. We don't have any big physical wings/guards who try to get position (Hayward and Johnson), and we don't have anyone who runs off screens (Hood).

Our personnel is trash. It is so easy to defend us, because we have no one who can shoot off the dribble and no one who can beat a switch. Donovan is supposed to be the guy who can shoot off the dribble and beat switches, but he's been terrible. Ingles is the closest thing we have to a threat to shoot the three off a PnR, but if he's running the PnR there's a chance that no one else on the floor can make a shot. We have no spacing, and no playmakers. Our PnR's are mostly failures because there are multiple ways you can defend them and shut us down. If they go under the pick, we can't take advantage. If they go over the pick and drop the big, we can't make a mid range shot or attack the big at the rim. If they switch, we can't take advantage. All the defense has to do is focus in on the roll man. The ball handler can't beat them in any way.

I think when people think "the system" or "the offense", they want plays that directly lead to a shot off a screen or a some kind of cut to the basket. That isn't what Quin's offense is and it never has been. This offense is all about creating an advantage and using it to either score or create a bigger advantage. It's about spreading the floor and giving our players a step on the defense or a favorable switch to attack. When our guys have a step on the defense or a switch, they are completely inept. They do get advantages, but they aren't good enough to make anything out of them.

[Luigi]

Our personnel is trash.

They're the same guys as they were last year. Otherwise, I agree with most of what you said.

[trex_8063]

Well, nineteen games in and the perimeter offense still sucks. We are now down 3.1 points relative to the league. (The defense is down 3.5 points relative to the league, but that's another thread.)

Here's the Ortgs compared to last year (continuity!):
130 Gobert (+8)
121 Favors (+2)
109 Burks (+7)
108 Crowder (+9)
103 Ingles (-12)
101 Exum (-9)
99 Mitchell (-4)
98 Rubio (-7)
92 O'Neale (-13)

1. The bigs are doing better than last year.
2. The guards are doing worse than last year (except for Burks).
3. Same team (continuity!).
WHAT EXPLAINS THE DIFFERENCE???

I think it's clear that 1) we lack the offensive execution we had last year, and that 2) we aren't keeping up with the new offense oriented league. We get meaningless passes and picks way outside the 3 point line. And while other teams are getting more out of their guards, we are getting less (Burks, the exception, is finally getting a little respect). This is disconcerting because our front office believed that our offense would greatly benefit from freedom of movement. I think they were right, we should benefit. But we aren't, because we fail to execute even the most basic offensive set and settle instead for picks for switches and contested 3s out of our guards. The bigs are just dunking more, and Crowder is shooting better.

Yeah, it's been sort of tough being a Jazz fan so far this season (especially with the high expectations)--->I know I have the Raps showing with my avatar, but I'm more or less equally a Jazz fan (have even thought of switching that). In the games I've watched......

*it seems like Mitchell is forcing A LOT of bad shots; situations where he should maybe be looking to kick or just keep the dribble alive and go thru/come back out.

**Rubio has, as you stated earlier, spent much of the season in a classic Rubio slump. Though tbh, I was sort of skeptical (hopeful, but skeptical) that he could shoot at the clip he did thru most of last season. I worried about his fit with a Gobert pnr, as he's a poor finisher around the rim and not (or hadn't been prior to last season) a noteworthy 3pt threat either.......so teams could just go under the screens (preferentially cover Rudy) and bait Rubio into shooting from the outside or midrange. Even though Rubio's a respectable mid-range shooter, it's such an inherently low% shot, opponents are content to live with that. I think with someone like Steve Nash or James Harden, Gobert could be averaging around 18 ppg on the same efficiency. Rubio just doesn't provide enough of a threat to score, so opponents prioritise the roll-man. Ingles is more of a scoring threat (though he doesn't have a 2-dribble pull-up in his arsenal), but not quite good enough passer/playmaker to fully take advantage of a Gobert pnr. Mitchell has a more "complete" arsenal than Ingles, but is an even lesser passer. It's consequently frustrating sometimes, watching Gobert roll to an open(ish) spot and NOT receive the ball.

***The other big factor is FT-shooting. Nearly everyone on the roster (not just the guards) are shooting significantly worse at the FT-line this year than they have in prior years. I just went thru the numbers, and if all players were just shooting the same % as they had last season at the FT-line, the team would be ~77.0% from the stripe (15th in league); instead they're 71.4% (27th). That may not sound like a lot, but it would actually translate to approximately a +1.6 boost to their ORtg. Would still be a below avg ORtg, but 23rd in the league instead of 27th (-1.9 rORTG doesn't seem quite as abysmal as -3.5).

****They've frankly missed a lot of good 3pt looks too. Not just the contested ones you've referred to, but actual good looks. This is reflected in the fact that they're 29th of 30 teams in 3pt%.


^^I'd like to think these last two categories at least are reversible and will improve as the season goes on.

[Luigi]

Yeah, it's been sort of tough being a Jazz fan so far this season (especially with the high expectations)--->I know I have the Raps showing with my avatar, but I'm more or less equally a Jazz fan (have even thought of switching that). In the games I've watched......

*it seems like Mitchell is forcing A LOT of bad shots; situations where he should maybe be looking to kick or just keep the dribble alive and go thru/come back out.

Yes, I do think Mitchell is making worse offensive decisions this season. It's scary, because he's playing worse than he average over all of last year, not just worse than his second half of the season when he seemed to find his step.

**Rubio has, as you stated earlier, spent much of the season in a classic Rubio slump. Though tbh, I was sort of skeptical (hopeful, but skeptical) that he could shoot at the clip he did thru most of last season. I worried about his fit with a Gobert pnr, as he's a poor finisher around the rim and not (or hadn't been prior to last season) a noteworthy 3pt threat either.......so teams could just go under the screens (preferentially cover Rudy) and bait Rubio into shooting from the outside or midrange. Even though Rubio's a respectable mid-range shooter, it's such an inherently low% shot, opponents are content to live with that. I think with someone like Steve Nash or James Harden, Gobert could be averaging around 18 ppg on the same efficiency. Rubio just doesn't provide enough of a threat to score, so opponents prioritise the roll-man. Ingles is more of a scoring threat (though he doesn't have a 2-dribble pull-up in his arsenal), but not quite good enough passer/playmaker to fully take advantage of a Gobert pnr. Mitchell has a more "complete" arsenal than Ingles, but is an even lesser passer. It's consequently frustrating sometimes, watching Gobert roll to an open(ish) spot and NOT receive the ball.

So do you think Rubio posted an above average season last year in total? I just don't understand how the perimeter offense can be so much different this year with no real personnel changes. Rubio has been shooting better than most of our guys so far this season . I agree that a Rubio Gobert pnr isn't very menacing. I do wish we'd put Mitchell into some pnrs with Favors and Gobert though. It could cut down on the first problem you mentioned.

***The other big factor is FT-shooting. Nearly everyone on the roster (not just the guards) are shooting significantly worse at the FT-line this year than they have in prior years. I just went thru the numbers, and if all players were just shooting the same % as they had last season at the FT-line, the team would be ~77.0% from the stripe (15th in league); instead they're 71.4% (27th). That may not sound like a lot, but it would actually translate to approximately a +1.6 boost to their ORtg. Would still be a below avg ORtg, but 23rd in the league instead of 27th (-1.9 rORTG doesn't seem quite as abysmal as -3.5).

This is interesting. I gotta check the FT distribution to see if it's just the wrong guys getting to the line.

****They've frankly missed a lot of good 3pt looks too. Not just the contested ones you've referred to, but actual good looks. This is reflected in the fact that they're 29th of 30 teams in 3pt%.

They have. But I also want an explanation for them missing shots, even open ones. Maybe a lot of it comes down to what happens when an individual player shoots the shot they had last year. But I think it's more systemic than that. Either the offense isn't being executed as well, or our perimeter guys all got mini yips.

^^I'd like to think these last two categories at least are reversible and will improve as the season goes on.

I hope so. Even if they do, I'd still want an explanation for the 20 game sample we have here. But some of the shooting is evening out again, but mostly just guys who had a good start going down into the gutter with everyone else. The alternative explanation there is that the system is affecting Crowder and Burks now, too! But here's to hoping .

[trex_8063]

So do you think Rubio posted an above average season last year in total?

Bearing in mind comments I made specifically pertained to his shooting alone, I reply:

For him? Absolutely, don't even think that can be questioned. It was surprisingly good (again: for him). Consider......

*He averaged 13.1 ppg (his previous career high had been 11.1 ppg).
**He shot 35.2% from beyond the arc (his previous best season had been 34.0%, with a career avg of 31.5%).
***He shot 45.1% from 2pt range (his previous best had been 44.3%, despite a slightly greater proportion of his 2pt attempts coming at the rim that year; his career 2pt% prior to last year was 39.6%).
****Overall he was 47.6% eFG% (his previous best was 44.8%, with a career avg of 41.5%).
*****He was 45.6% from 16-23 ft (his previous best year was 43.4%), had his third-best season from 10-16 ft (while taking a much larger proportion of them than ever before), and also had his highest finishing rate at the rim.

So I definitely think he had an above average shooting year (for him). And at this point I'm wondering if last year was a fluky outlier, never to be repeated.

[Luigi]

These scoring droughts, like the one we are in right now in the first half against the Spurs, are killing us in the new NBA. We have to be able to score. The offense looks miserable when we are losing games.

[ForeverRDjazz]

DM needs to start picking better shots. Just jacking up way to many bad shots. Niang and Ekpe should be getting more time. Quin's coaching is starting to really bug me.

[Luigi]

Now the total drop in relative offense (-2.4) is bigger than the drop in relative defense (-2.2) between the last two seasons. Both are bad. But so far, I think this vindicates my theory. The defense is normalizing, the offense isn't. The offense looks like the problem to me, and it's not just missing open shots that will fall with more reps. Not with this much data.

Moreover, the bigs are still posting better offensive numbers that last year, and the perimeter offense remains much worse than they were last year:

ORtg (Change from last year)
132 Gobert (+10)
129 Udoh (+3)
122 Favors (+3)
120 Niang (+39) (out of rotation)
114 Neto (+9) (out of rotation)
109 Crowder (+10)
104 Ingles (-11)
102 Korver *
99 Rubio (-6)
99 Mitchell (-4)
99 O'Neale (-6)
99 Exum (-11)
90 Allen
86 Sefolosha (-27)

* Korver provides a particularly bad data point. His offensive rating with the Cavs was -7 from last year. That's the Lebron effect. But he's -18 from last year while playing with the Jazz. That's the shots generated by our perimeter offense. Our perimeter offense sucks indeed. I don't buy the open shots aren't falling story. Not with this much data.

[Luigi]

Does anyone want to try and tell me the offense isn't the problem?

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

I'll get back to you when there's a game where we score a lot, disregard everything that's happened before, and then I'll say it's not the problem.

Bumping this because our relative offensive rating is down more than our relative defensive rating.

[KqWIN]

Does anyone want to try and tell me the offense isn't the problem?

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

I'll get back to you when there's a game where we score a lot, disregard everything that's happened before, and then I'll say it's not the problem.

Bumping this because our relative offensive rating is down more than our relative defensive rating.

The defense has returned to form, but somehow the offense has gotten worse and worse over the course of the season. Not something I expected. Needless to say, this team keeps finding ways to lose.

Being an elite defense with a horrific offense does align with the talent of this roster though. We are just miserable on offense. Some of it makes sense, some of it does not.

Beating up on tanking teams really made us look better than we were. Both the fans and the players themselves. There won’t be as many teams we can count on to lose on purpose this season. It could get really tough.

What’s funny about expectations is that this current team is playing exactly like I thought they would last season, and last season his how I thought they would play this season. Same team, different expectations, and different results. What a fun league.

[dr0welf]

I'll get back to you when there's a game where we score a lot, disregard everything that's happened before, and then I'll say it's not the problem.

Bumping this because our relative offensive rating is down more than our relative defensive rating.

The defense has returned to form, but somehow the offense has gotten worse and worse over the course of the season. Not something I expected. Needless to say, this team keeps finding ways to lose.

Being an elite defense with a horrific offense does align with the talent of this roster though. We are just miserable on offense. Some of it makes sense, some of it does not.

Beating up on tanking teams really made us look better than we were. Both the fans and the players themselves. There won’t be as many teams we can count on to lose on purpose this season. It could get really tough.

What’s funny about expectations is that this current team is playing exactly like I thought they would last season, and last season his how I thought they would play this season. Same team, different expectations, and different results. What a fun league.

I thought we lost to the tanking teams last year in our big streak run? Atlanta x2 , Memphis. That's the majority of our losses once our streak began.

[KqWIN]

Bumping this because our relative offensive rating is down more than our relative defensive rating.

The defense has returned to form, but somehow the offense has gotten worse and worse over the course of the season. Not something I expected. Needless to say, this team keeps finding ways to lose.

Being an elite defense with a horrific offense does align with the talent of this roster though. We are just miserable on offense. Some of it makes sense, some of it does not.

Beating up on tanking teams really made us look better than we were. Both the fans and the players themselves. There won’t be as many teams we can count on to lose on purpose this season. It could get really tough.

What’s funny about expectations is that this current team is playing exactly like I thought they would last season, and last season his how I thought they would play this season. Same team, different expectations, and different results. What a fun league.

I thought we lost to the tanking teams last year in our big streak run? Atlanta x2 , Memphis. That's the majority of our losses once our streak began.

Atlanta started the run... We showed up against the good teams, but a lot of those W’s were against teams trying to lose. The schedule was incredibly easy.

[dr0welf]

I thought the run started in Detroit. We lost to Atlanta at home, and then again in Atlanta.

No big deal, I get your point. But we did go through some tough teams during that phase as well. This team this year hasn't shown the grit needed to do it again though, even if it is just week teams.

[KqWIN]

FYI: I just noticed the title change. We are actually 1.5 worse on offense and 2.1 points worse in defense compared to last season.

But that’s not important. The defense appears to have turned the corner for the better...while the offense has gone the other direction.

Mitchell, Rubio, and Exum are the only 3 players in rotation with above average usage and they are terribly efficient. They’re getting open shots, layups, and switch opportunities all game. Just unable to take advantage. I can’t explain what makes Mitchell miss wide open shots and Exum miss layups. I’ve always believed Rubio was a fish out of water on this team (modern NBA?), but he has been bad relative to my own low expectations. Then you add Ingles in who’s gone from elite to average as a shooter...which I don’t particularly understand either.

Also, for as much as we talk about the shooting...that might not even be the biggest issue. We’re 16th in TS%, which is completely mediocre but not that bad considering our talent. Where our offense sinks is the extra opportunities. 28th in turnovers and 23rd in offensive rebounds. As a result of that, we’re 27th in true shooting attempts per100. In other words, we’re 27th in opportunities to score.

Denver is actually a less efficient shooting team than the Jazz, but they get 6 more chances at scoring per100 because they don’t waste possessions by turning it over and add opportunities by getting offensive rebounds.

Maybe we need to rethink what are main issues are...

[KqWIN]

To add onto my rambling...Joe’s on/off offensive rating is the best on the team. However, the team is actually shooting less efficiently with him on he court. So how is this possible? We turn the ball over at a ridiculously high rate with him off the court. The turnover rate skyrockets whenever he sits.

Joe is someone who seems to turn the ball over a lot. But the ball is so much safer whenever he’s on the court. Some of that is him taking care of the ball...but some of it is also due to the player who is on the court when he is off. Everyone’s favorite...Royce O’Neale !