Playoffs scenarios

[FJS]

Right now jazz are 6th in the conference.
We play 9 games away and 9 at home.
We play 5 games vs 50% teams or more (being nets and kings 2 of them just at 50%) and 13 games vs under 50%.
We are 23-18 vs west and 6-7 in our division

I think nuggets are not reachable.

Rockets are 39-25. They play 11 at h and 7 away. 9 over 50% and 9 under.
In case of tiebreaker we are 2-2 with 22-17 and 7-5.

Thunder is 40-25. 10 at home, 8 away. 12 vs over 50% and 6 losing teams.
They own the tiebreaker.

Blazers are 39-26. 8 at home, 10 away. 8 winning teams 10 losing.
We are tied. They are 20-21 vs west and 4-8 vs division.

Spurs are 37-29. 9 at home, 7 away. 7 winning teams, 9 losing.
We own the tiebreaker.

Clippers are 37-29. 11 at home, 5 away. 9 vs winning teams, 7 vs losing.
We own the tiebreaker.

Finally kings are out of playoffs with 32-32. 7 at home, 11 away. 8 winning teams, 10 losing.
We are 2-1. If we lose vs them they are 17-24 and 3-11 vs west.

So, we are almost a playoffs teams and we have some chances to be up.
I would love to finish 3rd and if we lock all the losing teams and the 50% we could finish 52-30.

What do you think?

[KqWIN]

I think the only realistic teams we can face are OKC, POR, and HOU. We will fall somewhere between 3-6. What I find more important than getting HCA is getting into the 3-6 matchup. I would absolutely take the 6th seed over the 4th seed because of the round two implications.

As far as the matchups themselves, OKC stands out as my preferred opponent. Defensively, we have the ability to neuter two of their biggest strengths (transition and offensive rebounding). Additionally, while Paul George is having an caliber MVP season, I’m am less scared of OKC’s ability shoot off the dribble than I am of POR and HOU with Lillard, McCollum, Harden, and CP3.

The main reason I like OKC is that they play a defensive style we can beat. They do lots of trapping and heavily rely on rotating and recovering off the ball. They are an elite defense, but I’ll still take our chances against them versus POR who drops their big or HOU who switches everything. The other two teams put the burden on our guards to make jumpers off the dribble and score which is the biggest weakness of this team. OKC puts the burden on our ability to pass the ball around the perimeter, and I think we’re pretty great at that.

[mark53]

I too agree that staying out of the 4/5 bracket is somewhat important. I would prefer to face Denver then OKC.

[KqWIN]

DEN would be ideal, but we’d have to fall into a ton of traps in order to drop that far down. I wouldn’t put it past this team though.

[babyjax13]

I think Golden State and OKC will both pass Denver.

[Rauxcee]

I would like to avoid OKC at all costs. They are not the same team we beat last year. No Melo to exploit, George is playing at an MVP/DPOY level, their bench is better, they'll be extra motivated if they face us, and did I mention there is no Melo to exploit?

Honestly OKC, Portland, and Houston all likely beat is in the first round. I think Portland is our best bet to move on, even though they regularly whoop us. I just think we stand zero chance against OKC and Houston.

[vryadli]

I didn't awfully scared of GS in second round. Recently Jazz put a very good fights against them. So I'd like to see push for 3d place and if it fall short - so be it. If Jazz will start to manoeuvre for the 6 place, the losses in moral and full-effort game practice will be bigger than any questionable gains in match-ups.

[Crunch 99]

Houston is really playing well and have climbed all the way to third seed, where barring further injuries, they have a strong chance of finishing, though they might even make it all the way to the second seed. Houston is the team that I would least like to face in the first round.

[KqWIN]

3 seed is pretty much out of the picture due to recent poor play. We re better off playing poorly for the rest of the regular season. If we end up in the 4/5 matchup, the best case scenario for our season is a repeat of last season. Don't kid yourself, we don't stand a chance against the Warriors.

[Denizfeital]

Seriously, right now playing the way we are, we don’t stand a chance against anyone.

[KqWIN]

I would like to avoid OKC at all costs. They are not the same team we beat last year. No Melo to exploit, George is playing at an MVP/DPOY level, their bench is better, they'll be extra motivated if they face us, and did I mention there is no Melo to exploit?

Honestly OKC, Portland, and Houston all likely beat is in the first round. I think Portland is our best bet to move on, even though they regularly whoop us. I just think we stand zero chance against OKC and Houston.

That's fair. OKC is much scarier than last year. If they decide to play switching defense against us, we are toast.

I don't like the POR matchup because it will turn into an off the dribble shooting contest. Lillard and McCollum are not losing that against Mitchell and Rubio. They play the same defense as us. Problem is that they have the exact offensive personnel to beat it and we have the opposite.

[FJS]

We are so bipolar. We won at Denver and vs bucks then we lost vs nola and Memphis... you don't know what to expect

[Rauxcee]

That's fair. OKC is much scarier than last year. If they decide to play switching defense against us, we are toast.

I don't like the POR matchup because it will turn into an off the dribble shooting contest. Lillard and McCollum are not losing that against Mitchell and Rubio. They play the same defense as us. Problem is that they have the exact offensive personnel to beat it and we have the opposite.

The Jazz are just just screwed in the first round. I really don't see them advancing this year. I only prefer Portland because while we match-up better with OKC, I know George and Westbrook won't allow themselves to lose to us again. Forget Houston and all of the calls, or non calls, on Harden. If we are able to contain CJ we can beat Portland (why we beat them the first 2 meetings this year). Problem is, I don't believe we can do that for a 7 games series. Maybe a game or two, but not the whole series.

Its just not going to be a good first round for the Jazz.

[SoCalJazzFan]

I would like to avoid OKC at all costs. They are not the same team we beat last year. No Melo to exploit, George is playing at an MVP/DPOY level, their bench is better, they'll be extra motivated if they face us, and did I mention there is no Melo to exploit?

Honestly OKC, Portland, and Houston all likely beat is in the first round. I think Portland is our best bet to move on, even though they regularly whoop us. I just think we stand zero chance against OKC and Houston.

Aren’t the Jazz 0-3 vs OKC this year?

[@ndrew]

We really need to find our new streak and move up, not in terms of rankings, but in terms of mentality. 2nd round is a dream for us right now, and only miracle can propel us there.

[KqWIN]

I don't think a coming into the playoffs hot or cold really matters. We know who they are, and we know that they're inconsistent. There's no questions about how good or bad this team is. It just depends on if they're going to show up with effort and make their shots...which is completely random as we've seen.

[LesGrossman]

I think this team has a lot of potential especially come playoff time where the game is slowed down and much more defense oriented. As much as the recent rule changes have hurt the Jazz i hope they are much more fit for playoff mode than many of those teams that rely on touch foul calls. Theres just a handful of adjustments that i'd like to see in order to maximize the performance and one would be to continue to run the motion offense vs. isolating Mitchell over and over. We continue to go to this predictable and overall quite unsuccessful scheme every time the clock goes below 3 or 4 minutes in the fourth, so noone can get experience and a feel for who to go to for the last shot. Everyone knows its gonna be Mitchell, and its gonna be heavily contested, low percentage. As much as i apprechiate Quinn's tactical abilities this is a move i just can not understand and whatever Snyder imagines as the desired output is not happening in real life as far as i can tell. Wether its a Rubio initiated PnR, or Ingles or at times Mitchell has to be unpredictable.

[KqWIN]

I think this team has a lot of potential especially come playoff time where the game is slowed down and much more defense oriented. As much as the recent rule changes have hurt the Jazz i hope they are much more fit for playoff mode than many of those teams that rely on touch foul calls. Theres just a handful of adjustments that i'd like to see in order to maximize the performance and one would be to continue to run the motion offense vs. isolating Mitchell over and over. We continue to go to this predictable and overall quite unsuccessful scheme every time the clock goes below 3 or 4 minutes in the fourth, so noone can get experience and a feel for who to go to for the last shot. Everyone knows its gonna be Mitchell, and its gonna be heavily contested, low percentage. As much as i apprechiate Quinn's tactical abilities this is a move i just can not understand and whatever Snyder imagines as the desired output is not happening in real life as far as i can tell. Wether its a Rubio initiated PnR, or Ingles or at times Mitchell has to be unpredictable.

I agree, Quin’s heavy isolation offense is a huge problem. We are 30th in the NBA in isolation attempts. Clearly we are way to reliant on them /s.

I don’t think we play perfect, optimized basketball, but we’re pretty close to being capped out. There’s only so much you can do, especially against the defenses we struggle against. The biggest area for untapped potential is offensive rebounding, particularly with Favors and Gobert. Quin sent them to the glass last season in the playoffs and it worked. We’ll see if he plays that card again.

Certain things about the playoff environment help us, certain things do not. Our biggest issue is when opposing defenses let our ball handlers shoot, because they are terrible at it. If there’s no threat to score, there’s no pass to be made. Leaving someone wide open is as easy as it gets as far as defensive gameplan. It’s up to the offense to make the shots.

I see that as the key issue of this team. It’s not going to change whether we get hot or not to end the regular season. I see getting the correct matchup, seeding, and health as the highest priorities to close the season. Our performance against tanking teams won’t make me feel better or worse about our chances.

[stitches]

Synergy released their playtype numbers after blocking them for the full season so far. There is a mini-project to be done on those. For example, I noticed how Ricky Rubio is below average(actually MUCH LOWER THAN AVERAGE) in every on-ball playtype... yikes.

If you go through the playtypes for Mitchell you would be impressed by how good he's actually doing in most of them. Right now it seems like the biggest problem is that he gets a TON of the low-efficiency types because noone else on the team can run those and he doesn't get enough of the high efficiency ones(offball), because noone else on the team can create for him and for others. Those numbers are very illuminating about the main problem of this team - lack of secondary ball-handler and offense creator to help Mitchell and share the load of the heavy-duty possessions.

[KqWIN]

Synergy released their playtype numbers after blocking them for the full season so far. There is a mini-project to be done on those. For example, I noticed how Ricky Rubio is below average(actually MUCH LOWER THAN AVERAGE) in every on-ball playtype... yikes.

If you go through the playtypes for Mitchell you would be impressed by how good he's actually doing in most of them. Right now it seems like the biggest problem is that he gets a TON of the low-efficiency types because noone else on the team can run those and he doesn't get enough of the high efficiency ones(offball), because noone else on the team can create for him and for others. Those numbers are very illuminating about the main problem of this team - lack of secondary ball-handler and offense creator to help Mitchell and share the load of the heavy-duty possessions.

I was thinking about making a longer post about them this weekend, but I didn’t find the time. There are some good takeaways from that data. I wish it included the pass out data, but it’s nice to know what types shots we’re taking and how good our players are at making them.