Playoffs scenarios

[Inigo Montoya]

I think we beat Portland in a series if we meet them, we tend to embarrass them a few times every season. Yes, they have a favorable matchup on paper, but we do play well against them most of the time and they always under-achieve in the playoffs.

[KqWIN]

We’ll see. I think OKC is definitely the best matchup stylistically, but they did dominate us this regular season and they could easily change their defense during the series as they did last year. This time without Melo.

I’d expect the POR series to turn into an off he dribble shooting contest, and that’s why I do not like our chances. Both teams use a dropping defensive scheme. POR struggled against NOP last season, but they were trapping the PnR. I don’t expect Quin to make that adjustment and change our entire defense.

[KqWIN]

inpredictable.com update:

2 - 2%
3 - 11%
4 - 34%
5 - 29%
6 -14%
7 - 7%
8 - 3%

Likely going to be a 4/5 matchup with POR or HOU with POR being the most likely.

Another fun note from this great website, the Jazz are 3rd strongest teams based on implied odds from Vegas behind GSW and MIL. We are closer to MIL than we are to #4 DEN. Vegas is very high on the Jazz.

[Denizfeital]

Funny how it works.

Yesterday we were fifth and The Thunder were eighth. We lost a game, and now we are seventh and The Thunder are fifth.

Go figure.

[zero24gravity]

Everyone thank the Jazz players for adopting the Knicks & Wizards defensive strategy of "watch and hope they miss" vs the Hawks, in order to keep themselves out of the 4/5 spots, so they aren't on the same side of the bracket as the Warriors.

(That was just plain sad to watch.)

[Rauxcee]

I'm still not optimistic about their chances getting out of the first round no matter who they play, but I do think their best chance is being 7th and facing Denver.

Not encouraged by their play all season however.

[KqWIN]

This stretch against bad teams hasn’t changed my opinion at much. Highs and lows obviously, still the same team with the same issues and very little growth. Good team nonetheless. It’s going to be a fight against any team other than the Warriors.

The difference is that we’re not a cute underdog story this time around. Whatever happens, I just hope we don’t run it back for the same results again. I prefer to improve the team versus pushing our friendship levels to the max.

[Rauxcee]

This stretch against bad teams hasn’t changed my opinion at much. Highs and lows obviously, still the same team with the same issues and very little growth. Good team nonetheless. It’s going to be a fight against any team other than the Warriors.

The difference is that we’re not a cute underdog story this time around. Whatever happens, I just hope we don’t run it back for the same results again. I prefer to improve the team versus pushing our friendship levels to the max.

Last year's team versus this year's team feels different to me. Last year after Gobert got back they looked hungry and ready to prove something. I knew every game they were going to battle and compete hard. This year, I still wonder which team is going to show up: lazy, sloppy Jazz or the Jazz that are ready to compete. Just no consistency this year.

I don't think we are getting anybody in FA. Not for a lack of trying, but in light of recent events/comments/perceptions nobody is coming this summer.

[KqWIN]

This stretch against bad teams hasn’t changed my opinion at much. Highs and lows obviously, still the same team with the same issues and very little growth. Good team nonetheless. It’s going to be a fight against any team other than the Warriors.

The difference is that we’re not a cute underdog story this time around. Whatever happens, I just hope we don’t run it back for the same results again. I prefer to improve the team versus pushing our friendship levels to the max.

Last year's team versus this year's team feels different to me. Last year after Gobert got back they looked hungry and ready to prove something. I knew every game they were going to battle and compete hard. This year, I still wonder which team is going to show up: lazy, sloppy Jazz or the Jazz that are ready to compete. Just no consistency this year.

I don't think we are getting anybody in FA. Not for a lack of trying, but in light of recent events/comments/perceptions nobody is coming this summer.

I get what you're saying about the second half of last season...but how much of that was being hungry and having something to prove versus just playing out of our minds and at an unsustainable level? Playing with fire helps you reach peak performance, but I don't think playing hungry is what made Rubio suddenly shoot at an elite level for half the season. It's not all luck and randomness, but with hindsight it looks more and more like a flash in the pan.

When Rubio and Ingles were playing at the level they did it made us seem unbeatable. There were also more tanking teams last season and higher incentives to tank. There's was so much fools gold that led us into inevitable disappointment.

The internal and external perception of our team has really taken a hit because of expectations. This summer we were a cute, exciting team on the up and up. We decided to do nothing. Now we're a boring, stagnating team that nobody wants to play for. If we want to spend money, we probably can't outside of overpaying our own guys.

[Rauxcee]

I get what you're saying about the second half of last season...but how much of that was being hungry and having something to prove versus just playing out of our minds and at an unsustainable level? Playing with fire helps you reach peak performance, but I don't think playing hungry is what made Rubio suddenly shoot at an elite level for half the season. It's not all luck and randomness, but with hindsight it looks more and more like a flash in the pan.

When Rubio and Ingles were playing at the level they did it made us seem unbeatable. There were also more tanking teams last season and higher incentives to tank. There's was so much fools gold that led us into inevitable disappointment.

The internal and external perception of our team has really taken a hit because of expectations. This summer we were a cute, exciting team on the up and up. We decided to do nothing. Now we're a boring, stagnating team that nobody wants to play for. If we want to spend money, we probably can't outside of overpaying our own guys.

I'm not saying they didn't overachieve last year, but I do think it was because they were hungry and wanted to prove something, and not just because they were playing at an unsustainable level. Last year Hayward left and everyone counted us out. I think they really wanted to prove something after he left, especially with how things played out on his way out. They don't have that this year.

Rubio shot well the second half of last year and the the second half of the year before. Ingles shot well last year and the year before. This year the shooting for both has regressed. 2 years isn't exactly a large sample size, but it's enough to make me think last year maybe wasn't just an anomaly, but again 2 years does not make a career average.

I guess thinking that they were wanting to prove something last year and that was the cause of their success, is still kinda the same thing as saying it was a flash in the pan/hot streak. Whatever they had going for themselves last year, they don't have it this year.

[vryadli]

Last year Utah team overachieved bu was cut by injuries in playoff.

Utah team evidently doesn't overachieve this year. Formally, they don't need to do that now because of bracket calculations. I don't believe for switching from somewhat stinky maneuvers to get the most convenient but not the highest highest placement to really fighting mode by will. Karma will nor allow that. At least not to young teams. Current Utah is not veterans of Piston or Mavericks or Celtics who all knew everything about game and themselves,

so they are to be punished in play offs by getting best possible match up and losing in most embarrassing way. I only hope that they will learn from that and will come with fire in next season.

[LesGrossman]

Wow. Some weird takes in here. As a fan, i hope the Jazz make it as deep as possible. I am not sure about the progress in comparison to last season. Many guys have complained about lack of moves, and have predicted that Utah would start tanking by middle of the season. Yet here we are, back in the postseason, with no all star on the team, having left many teams behind that looked more promising.

I also believe this team is currently underachieving. The reasons are mostly on the offensive end; on D, they look as sharp as ever most of the time (but see below for neccessary adjustments). Last season, a far more humble, never-complaining Donovan Mitchell was getting everyone's attention with outworldly numbers. Many thought he was the legit rookie of the year. Imagine THIS was his and Simmons', Lonzo's, Kuzmas, Tatums and Markkanens rookie campaign. I dont think he'd be in consideration. At the same time, Ingles and Rubio shoot a lot worse than last year (however, that doesnt have that much of an impact, because they get very few shots anyway). I also think that Rudy's improvement offensively makes up a lot - he somehow learned to catch the ball and to keep it high.

Also teams have figured out how to counter Rudy and his massive presence under the basket. Sagging off completely, waiting under the basket for the ball handler wont work as well any more because teams have decided that the floater or short jumper have a better chance than going up against Rudy. I havent seen any counter measures /in-game adjustments to this so far.

All in all, i think its pretty cheap to demand trades and improvements even though that is the mindset in the league lately - dont build or improve through work but just buy talent. Everyone can do that. But i think this team actually has all the pieces they need for a deep run. It just takes some adjustments on both ends. That, plus some of the guys getting hot in the right moment, and one or two won series are possible.

[KqWIN]

Wow. Some weird takes in here. As a fan, i hope the Jazz make it as deep as possible. I am not sure about the progress in comparison to last season. Many guys have complained about lack of moves, and have predicted that Utah would start tanking by middle of the season. Yet here we are, back in the postseason, with no all star on the team, having left many teams behind that looked more promising.

I also believe this team is currently underachieving. The reasons are mostly on the offensive end; on D, they look as sharp as ever most of the time (but see below for neccessary adjustments). Last season, a far more humble, never-complaining Donovan Mitchell was getting everyone's attention with outworldly numbers. Many thought he was the legit rookie of the year. Imagine THIS was his and Simmons', Lonzo's, Kuzmas, Tatums and Markkanens rookie campaign. I dont think he'd be in consideration. At the same time, Ingles and Rubio shoot a lot worse than last year (however, that doesnt have that much of an impact, because they get very few shots anyway). I also think that Rudy's improvement offensively makes up a lot - he somehow learned to catch the ball and to keep it high.

Also teams have figured out how to counter Rudy and his massive presence under the basket. Sagging off completely, waiting under the basket for the ball handler wont work as well any more because teams have decided that the floater or short jumper have a better chance than going up against Rudy. I havent seen any counter measures /in-game adjustments to this so far.

All in all, i think its pretty cheap to demand trades and improvements even though that is the mindset in the league lately - dont build or improve through work but just buy talent. Everyone can do that. But i think this team actually has all the pieces they need for a deep run. It just takes some adjustments on both ends. That, plus some of the guys getting hot in the right moment, and one or two won series are possible.

I don't think it's cheap at all to want your team to improve. I have no idea how these conversations about being a proper fan come about, but I can't for the life of me understand an opposition to people wanting their team to improve. Ironically, one of the few ways that the Jazz have improved is through a trade. The Korver trade, which removed one of the most well liked players in the locker room, has had a massive impact on the success of the bench unit. It was an effective move and also an admission of a mistake from the FO. The continuity and friendship plan did not work. Internal developmental also a big fail for the team as a whole.

As far as the defensive gameplan, we've known and been talking about this for years. It's not a new thing by any means. The gameplan is what it is, and it's been that way since Quin got here and Rudy got the starting job. It's also been the best defense in the league over that span. Short mid range shots and floaters are the worst shots in the game, and that's why we allow them. We've all seen it be exploited and know what types of players can exploit it, but Quin does not like to make defensive adjustments.

Portland is the nightmare stylistic matchup because they play the same defense. Issue is, they have two elite shooters off the dribble. Our ball handlers are not beating them in a shooting contest. HOU also has two elite shooters off the dribble. They play a switching defense instead, but our guards are equally awful at beating switches as they are shooting jumpers out of PnR.

[Luigi]

I don't believe we're winning a series against any playoff team in the West this year. Hard to get excited about matchups.

[LesGrossman]

I don't believe we're winning a series against any playoff team in the West this year. Hard to get excited about matchups.

What did you think last year going into the OKC series?

[Luigi]

I don't believe we're winning a series against any playoff team in the West this year. Hard to get excited about matchups.

What did you think last year going into the OKC series?

I thought we'd lose, but I had better reasons to hope. We don't look right, need a change.

[Catchall]

The issue this year is Ricky. He shot well at the end of last year.

[Rauxcee]

The issue this year is Ricky. He shot well at the end of last year.

It's not just Ricky. Joe shot something like 44% from 3 last year and this year he's around 37%. That's a pretty significant drop. Mitchell is shooting the same from 3, and worse from 2 as last year, but is taking 3 more field goal attempts to do it.

This whole team is off, except Gobert and Favors.

[ForeverRDjazz]

I kinda like 7th seed if its the Nugs. I'd rather play GSW than take on OKC the first round this year. But hell I didn't want OKC last year but we some how won that series. I think I'll put money on Jazz upsetting GSW first round this year. Odds would be a high pay out. Bet few years ago on GSW 8th seed to beat Mavs who was the 1st seed. 75 bucks it paid 1,200. Told by bud to put down 500 each. He did 75 each and was kicking himself in the butt for not listening to me. GSW just had Mavs number that year and I knew it'd carry over into the playoffs.

[LesGrossman]

The issue this year is Ricky. He shot well at the end of last year.

I'm not one who goes to stats easily but that is a remarkable claim considering how few shots he takes. Compare his drop to Mitchells on one hand multiply by numer of attempts to get a rough estimation of the impact his shooting has overall.

Mitchell takes by far the most shots. This season, for some reason he cant get by his defender very often, resulting in low percentage attempts. His eFG% went down while his attempts went up. Its not so hard, to me both eye test and stats show that he is the main culprit. Ingles' eFG% went down the most of those three, but its not really significant so much because he takes even less shots than Ricky.

It all comes down to shot selection and execution of the offense vs. 1 on 1.