2019 Utah Jazz Off Season Thread

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Re: 2019 Utah Jazz Off Season Thread 

Post#801 » by stitches » Fri Oct 4, 2019 3:24 pm

Zach Lowe with his yearly NBA pre-season tiers article:
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27763420/nba-30-teams-rated-top-contenders-bottom-tier

He includes the Jazz in the 'Tier 1: Top title contenders' , along with the Rockets, Bucks, Sixers, Clippers, Lakers.

Jazz

• Small pet peeve: any assumption that time is propelling Donovan Mitchell on a path to soon becoming prime Dwyane Wade. Prime Dwyane Wade was a freaking monster. The collective memory of this is fading because Wade passed the baton early to LeBron and spent prior seasons toiling on mediocre teams-in-waiting for LeBron. Prime Wade had a claim to the "greatest active shooting guard" throne. He shot between 51% and 55% on 2s every season, dished six or seven dimes per game, lived at the line, and lurked as the greatest shot-blocking guard in history.

The gap between Mitchell and that player is enormous. Mitchell closed some of it with a post-All-Star surge before struggling from the field for the second straight postseason. Good news: The entire point of acquiring Mike Conley is that Mitchell has to close only a little more of the Wade gap for Utah to become a serious contender.

Mitchell has hit 40% of his career catch-and-shoot 3s. He should get more next to Conley. Quin Snyder will find new ways to get Mitchell the ball on the move. Mitchell should be able to reserve more energy for defense. If he fulfills his potential on that end, the Jazz are going to be nasty.

The other pole of the Mitchell discussion -- the one emanating from analytics-heavy places -- is that he just isn't very good. Don't buy that. He just turned 23. His efficiency hasn't matched his Q factor, but he can do special things and has a certain ineffable quality -- courage, guts, toughness -- you need to win at the highest level. Maybe he'll never be Prime Wade, or some analytics darling, but I'd bet on Mitchell improving in ways that matter.

With Conley and Bogdanovic aboard, Utah should not fall victim to the Twilight Zone shooting slumps that torpedoed them in recent playoff defeats. Bump up their shooting, and the Jazz could sniff the top five in points per possession. That two-way balance nudges them a hair above Houston and Denver.

The Jazz might face some size and rebounding issues splitting power forward minutes between Bogdanovic, O'Neale (don't be shocked if he starts) and Jeff Green. They can dangle Exum to trawl for an extra big man if need be.


It's kind of demonstrative of how the national media misunderstands the Jazz with the fact that Lowe wrote 6 paragraphs about the Jazz in that piece and didn't mention the best player on the team(Rudy) once.
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Re: 2019 Utah Jazz Off Season Thread 

Post#802 » by KqWIN » Fri Oct 4, 2019 4:11 pm

stitches wrote:Zach Lowe with his yearly NBA pre-season tiers article:
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27763420/nba-30-teams-rated-top-contenders-bottom-tier

He includes the Jazz in the 'Tier 1: Top title contenders' , along with the Rockets, Bucks, Sixers, Clippers, Lakers.

Jazz

• Small pet peeve: any assumption that time is propelling Donovan Mitchell on a path to soon becoming prime Dwyane Wade. Prime Dwyane Wade was a freaking monster. The collective memory of this is fading because Wade passed the baton early to LeBron and spent prior seasons toiling on mediocre teams-in-waiting for LeBron. Prime Wade had a claim to the "greatest active shooting guard" throne. He shot between 51% and 55% on 2s every season, dished six or seven dimes per game, lived at the line, and lurked as the greatest shot-blocking guard in history.

The gap between Mitchell and that player is enormous. Mitchell closed some of it with a post-All-Star surge before struggling from the field for the second straight postseason. Good news: The entire point of acquiring Mike Conley is that Mitchell has to close only a little more of the Wade gap for Utah to become a serious contender.

Mitchell has hit 40% of his career catch-and-shoot 3s. He should get more next to Conley. Quin Snyder will find new ways to get Mitchell the ball on the move. Mitchell should be able to reserve more energy for defense. If he fulfills his potential on that end, the Jazz are going to be nasty.

The other pole of the Mitchell discussion -- the one emanating from analytics-heavy places -- is that he just isn't very good. Don't buy that. He just turned 23. His efficiency hasn't matched his Q factor, but he can do special things and has a certain ineffable quality -- courage, guts, toughness -- you need to win at the highest level. Maybe he'll never be Prime Wade, or some analytics darling, but I'd bet on Mitchell improving in ways that matter.

With Conley and Bogdanovic aboard, Utah should not fall victim to the Twilight Zone shooting slumps that torpedoed them in recent playoff defeats. Bump up their shooting, and the Jazz could sniff the top five in points per possession. That two-way balance nudges them a hair above Houston and Denver.

The Jazz might face some size and rebounding issues splitting power forward minutes between Bogdanovic, O'Neale (don't be shocked if he starts) and Jeff Green. They can dangle Exum to trawl for an extra big man if need be.


It's kind of demonstrative of how the national media misunderstands the Jazz with the fact that Lowe wrote 6 paragraphs about the Jazz in that piece and didn't mention the best player on the team(Rudy) once.



Yeah, I wonder if that's just because they assume that Rudy's so great the defense will be elite no matter who's with him. But if that's the case, Rudy deserves way more credit than he gets. How many players make you instantly elite on either end?

I agree that the Wade comp for Mitchell is ambitious, and that's because Wade was so great. MVP level player when he was healthy and in his price. I disagree that Mitchell just isn't that good from an analytics standpoint. Mitchell's rates well by almost all the impact stats. Unless TS% compasses all analytics...that's just incorrect.

Mitchell rates higher than Ben Simmons in almost all of them, for example, but Simmons has an affection from the nerdier side of fans. He gets the perception that he's helping his teammates while Mitchell gets the connotation of a selfish, inefficient chucker. The numbers say otherwise. Mitchell's keeping the Jazz afloat and allowing his teammates to remain super efficient role players.
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Re: 2019 Utah Jazz Off Season Thread 

Post#803 » by Catchall » Fri Oct 4, 2019 5:31 pm

This year should be different, but last year, if Mitchell doesn't force some of those shots, the Jazz wouldn't have gotten a shot off during that possession.
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Re: 2019 Utah Jazz Off Season Thread 

Post#804 » by stitches » Fri Oct 4, 2019 5:52 pm

KqWIN wrote:
Yeah, I wonder if that's just because they assume that Rudy's so great the defense will be elite no matter who's with him. But if that's the case, Rudy deserves way more credit than he gets. How many players make you instantly elite on either end?

I agree that the Wade comp for Mitchell is ambitious, and that's because Wade was so great. MVP level player when he was healthy and in his price. I disagree that Mitchell just isn't that good from an analytics standpoint. Mitchell's rates well by almost all the impact stats. Unless TS% compasses all analytics...that's just incorrect.

Mitchell rates higher than Ben Simmons in almost all of them, for example, but Simmons has an affection from the nerdier side of fans. He gets the perception that he's helping his teammates while Mitchell gets the connotation of a selfish, inefficient chucker. The numbers say otherwise. Mitchell's keeping the Jazz afloat and allowing his teammates to remain super efficient role players.

Yeah, I noticed that about Mitchell too... Having in mind how inefficient he was, his advanced stats are actually pretty good. He's in the top 30-50 by most of the impact stats and is better than Simmons by all of them.
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Re: 2019 Utah Jazz Off Season Thread 

Post#805 » by KqWIN » Fri Oct 4, 2019 6:29 pm

stitches wrote:
KqWIN wrote:
Yeah, I wonder if that's just because they assume that Rudy's so great the defense will be elite no matter who's with him. But if that's the case, Rudy deserves way more credit than he gets. How many players make you instantly elite on either end?

I agree that the Wade comp for Mitchell is ambitious, and that's because Wade was so great. MVP level player when he was healthy and in his price. I disagree that Mitchell just isn't that good from an analytics standpoint. Mitchell's rates well by almost all the impact stats. Unless TS% compasses all analytics...that's just incorrect.

Mitchell rates higher than Ben Simmons in almost all of them, for example, but Simmons has an affection from the nerdier side of fans. He gets the perception that he's helping his teammates while Mitchell gets the connotation of a selfish, inefficient chucker. The numbers say otherwise. Mitchell's keeping the Jazz afloat and allowing his teammates to remain super efficient role players.

Yeah, I noticed that about Mitchell too... Having in mind how inefficient he was, his advanced stats are actually pretty good. He's in the top 30-50 by most of the impact stats and is better than Simmons by all of them.


Maybe I'm just doing the fanhood/victim thing...but it's pretty crazy how his inefficiency has consumed his identity as a player. If you think he's good, it feels like you're seen as either a homer or a casual. I don't think similarly efficient players (Murray, McCollum, Russell etx.) receive the same criticism.
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Re: 2019 Utah Jazz Off Season Thread 

Post#806 » by Catchall » Fri Oct 4, 2019 9:34 pm

KqWIN wrote:
stitches wrote:
KqWIN wrote:
Yeah, I wonder if that's just because they assume that Rudy's so great the defense will be elite no matter who's with him. But if that's the case, Rudy deserves way more credit than he gets. How many players make you instantly elite on either end?

I agree that the Wade comp for Mitchell is ambitious, and that's because Wade was so great. MVP level player when he was healthy and in his price. I disagree that Mitchell just isn't that good from an analytics standpoint. Mitchell's rates well by almost all the impact stats. Unless TS% compasses all analytics...that's just incorrect.

Mitchell rates higher than Ben Simmons in almost all of them, for example, but Simmons has an affection from the nerdier side of fans. He gets the perception that he's helping his teammates while Mitchell gets the connotation of a selfish, inefficient chucker. The numbers say otherwise. Mitchell's keeping the Jazz afloat and allowing his teammates to remain super efficient role players.

Yeah, I noticed that about Mitchell too... Having in mind how inefficient he was, his advanced stats are actually pretty good. He's in the top 30-50 by most of the impact stats and is better than Simmons by all of them.


Maybe I'm just doing the fanhood/victim thing...but it's pretty crazy how his inefficiency has consumed his identity as a player. If you think he's good, it feels like you're seen as either a homer or a casual. I don't think similarly efficient players (Murray, McCollum, Russell etx.) receive the same criticism.


Mitchell's offensive role and efficiency were comparable to Kemba Walker last year, maybe a bit better.
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Re: 2019 Utah Jazz Off Season Thread 

Post#807 » by vryadli » Sat Oct 5, 2019 7:44 am

stitches wrote:Zach Lowe with his yearly NBA pre-season tiers article:
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27763420/nba-30-teams-rated-top-contenders-bottom-tier

===============

The other pole of the Mitchell discussion -- the one It's kind of demonstrative of how the national media misunderstands the Jazz with the fact that Lowe wrote 6 paragraphs about the Jazz in that piece and didn't mention the best player on the team(Rudy) once.


Of course DM is a big defensive asset too, but this man (and clever one) discusses chances of the teams and completely ignore best player of the team - it is ridiculous and shows complete distortion of the scale.

Hopefully that will change when season starts. But, I'm afraid, not that much. At least Jazzmen themselves have to keep their perspective straight. So far the real actual Gobert was the most important player here - and DM can become about equal to him IN FUTURE with quite a few "if" and "when".
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Re: 2019 Utah Jazz Off Season Thread 

Post#808 » by stitches » Sat Oct 5, 2019 7:31 pm

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Re: 2019 Utah Jazz Off Season Thread 

Post#809 » by Rauxcee » Sat Oct 5, 2019 8:10 pm

Why even have preseason games if you are just going to load management guys?

Not saying they should play, but scrap the game if you'd rather players not play.
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Re: 2019 Utah Jazz Off Season Thread 

Post#810 » by FJS » Sun Oct 6, 2019 5:07 pm

Since it's preseason let's gonna unstick it

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Re: 2019 Utah Jazz Off Season Thread 

Post#811 » by stitches » Mon Oct 7, 2019 4:04 pm

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Re: 2019 Utah Jazz Off Season Thread 

Post#812 » by KqWIN » Thu Oct 10, 2019 11:14 pm

538 released their new metric, RAPTOR. I read the full methodology. It's very interesting, might even say it's groundbreaking given all the stuff that's include...But in practice and use it's probably not too different than RPM/PIPM ect.

From a Jazz perspective, here's what stands out:

- Jeff Green and Mudiay are horrible
- Bojan is bad
- Exum is...good?

The first two are not a surprise. All three of those players are anti-analytics darlings. We'll see about them this upcoming season.

This is one of the few metrics that thinks Dante is a decent player. Perhaps the most unique thing about RAPTOR is its use of player tracking data. That is something relatively new and not incorporated in most models. Dante has poor no-stats defensive player and has typically rated out as a poor defender. With the player tracking data, however, he looks pretty good.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/introducing-raptor-our-new-metric-for-the-modern-nba/
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Re: 2019 Utah Jazz Off Season Thread 

Post#813 » by stitches » Fri Oct 11, 2019 1:01 pm

KqWIN wrote:538 released their new metric, RAPTOR. I read the full methodology. It's very interesting, might even say it's groundbreaking given all the stuff that's include...But in practice and use it's probably not too different than RPM/PIPM ect.

From a Jazz perspective, here's what stands out:

- Jeff Green and Mudiay are horrible
- Bojan is bad
- Exum is...good?

The first two are not a surprise. All three of those players are anti-analytics darlings. We'll see about them this upcoming season.

This is one of the few metrics that thinks Dante is a decent player. Perhaps the most unique thing about RAPTOR is its use of player tracking data. That is something relatively new and not incorporated in most models. Dante has poor no-stats defensive player and has typically rated out as a poor defender. With the player tracking data, however, he looks pretty good.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/introducing-raptor-our-new-metric-for-the-modern-nba/

John Stockton looking like a top 10 player of all time by that stat. I knew he was an advanced stat monster by the few impact stats we had from the end of his career(he was no.1 in the entire league by RAPM in his age 38 season). This one shows just how good he was in his true prime and how much of a BS is the narrative that he's an all time great only because of his longevity - he has 3 of the top 20 seasons and 7 of the top 30 seasons ever recorded. What an absolute beast!
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Re: 2019 Utah Jazz Off Season Thread 

Post#814 » by BudTugly » Wed Oct 16, 2019 1:15 pm

So these guys... this is just hilarious. Pretty accurate rendition of nationwide attitude towards our franchise. NSFW

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Re: 2019 Utah Jazz Off Season Thread 

Post#815 » by stitches » Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:23 pm

BudTugly wrote:So these guys... this is just hilarious. Pretty accurate rendition of nationwide attitude towards our franchise. NSFW


The Jazz are defensive team ? :o
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Re: 2019 Utah Jazz Off Season Thread 

Post#816 » by stitches » Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:11 pm

David Locke just brought in some serious talent to his podcast network - they are launching NBA podcast with Dunc'd on host Nate Duncan and ex-Memphis GM and godfather of NBA analytics John Hollinger.

The podcast is called Hollinger & Duncan NBA Show.
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Re: 2019 Utah Jazz Off Season Thread 

Post#817 » by KqWIN » Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:27 pm

Lowe’s yearly wild predictions: https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27820197/wild-nba-predictions-giannis-big-decision-trades-watch-for


Jazz related:

Rudy wins DPOY
Jazz get and all star
Jazz make playoffs
DEN #1 seed
Dante Exum + Tony a Bradley for (maybe) Marcus Morris
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Re: 2019 Utah Jazz Off Season Thread 

Post#818 » by KqWIN » Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:48 pm

On the topic of an Exum trade, here are the guys that meet salary:

Marvin Williams
Marcus Morris
Bobby Portis
Jordan Clarkson
Courtney Lee
Trevor Ariza
Tony Snell
Andre Roberson
Taj Gibson
Al-Foruq Aminu
Kyle Anderson
CJ Miles
E'Twaun Moore
Wayne Ellington
Davis Bertans
Nemaja Bjelica
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Re: 2019 Utah Jazz Off Season Thread 

Post#819 » by stitches » Fri Oct 18, 2019 10:28 pm

KqWIN wrote:On the topic of an Exum trade, here are the guys that meet salary:

Marvin Williams
Marcus Morris
Bobby Portis
Jordan Clarkson
Courtney Lee
Trevor Ariza
Tony Snell
Andre Roberson
Taj Gibson
Al-Foruq Aminu
Kyle Anderson
CJ Miles
E'Twaun Moore
Wayne Ellington
Davis Bertans
Nemaja Bjelica


How much more salary do we need for Iggy?
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Re: 2019 Utah Jazz Off Season Thread 

Post#820 » by Rauxcee » Fri Oct 18, 2019 11:31 pm

stitches wrote:How much more salary do we need for Iggy?


Iggy is washed IMO. Also he's been pretty vocal in his dislike of Utah and it's players.

I'd prefer we pass on him to be honest.

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