Shams: Jazz trade for Conley...

[SoCalJazzFan]

Yeah, that was the bowling ball being inserted into the backside after getting reamed over and over again with the other terms. That also means that the pick is tied up and can't be conveyed for potentially several years. I have no words.

We can't even trade for another PG-rental once Conley leaves next season.

We might extend him if he opts out. We'll have to see how it works.

Might I suggest a room at the local retirement home paid for by the Jazz as part of that contract? He will be in CP3 territory then.

[Inigo Montoya]

If we don't get a championship this year, DL should be fired. Horrid trade, absolutely horrid.

We're not going to even make the WCF. What's likely to happen is that the rest of the teams who have yet to make their moves, will make them during the draft and free agency, and get better. In the end, we'll still end up as the 4-5 seed again, and will again have a 1st-2nd round exit.

[Luigi]

That being said, we must be on the lookout for ways to acquire swings in the draft now. Gotta have those rookie contracts coming in to keep building a competitive roster.

With what, our second round picks, that DL doesn't use?

Inigio is right, this is a win now move that handcuffs the Jazz for several years to come.

I do think we had to make a move during Mitchell's rookie window. This is probably the best available. (I'm taking the trade to indicate that Russell wasn't playing ball, same with Harris.)

I'm not so sure we'll be so handcuffed. There are a few variables here. It does have some risks involved though.

[KDBG]

Is "the city of Utah" never going to leave this planet. LMAO WTF!

[Inigo Montoya]

Now what happens if Conley leaves next year and Rudy is pissed off and leaves in 2021? We very well might give Memphis a top 10 pick in the double draft.

That might actually be one of the better outcomes. At least this way we'll be able to re-build and hopefully construct a better team around DM's timeline over time. The alternative is that Conely stays for the duration of his contract so we won't be able to get the 3rd piece we need for the long term. Then he leaves once his contract is up with the Jazz getting no where special during his stint, and the Jazz are left capped out with DM's max and Gobert's supermax and treadmilling for the next 5 seasons.

[KqWIN]

We could be planning to play Favors at the 4 full time with Conley being able to shoot it. But we'll have to wait and see what moves are available.

Either that, or playing more small ball with Royce+Ingles as the forwards. I think we're both OK to not get into it again But I will just say that this is a huge question mark for the playoffs. Agree or disagree, Quin does not believe in it. He has gone to zero Favors PF minutes. The small ball lineup is also something he's not tried.

Quin will have to do something he's not believed in. Small ball, Favors at the 4, or Niang.

Yeah, Niang could see some real minutes. We'll probably go for a big forward with the room exception. But we'll see how flexible Snyder is this season. Gotta work with what they give you, and get the most out of the talent available. Looking over Favors' history with Snyder, we've got these position estimates for Favors:

2015 - 75% PF, 26% C (Basketball-ref thinks 101% ha)
2016 - 46% PF, 54% C
2017 - 46% PF, 54% C
2018 - 39% PF, 61% C
2019 - 42% PF, 58% C

That's more PF than I was expecting.

Regular season is not the same as playoffs. Favors+Gobert has proven to be fine, even if not ideal, during the regular season for years. In both HOU series, Quin eventually went to 0 Favors PF minutes because of the defense HOU was playing. I'm not worried at all during the regular season. I'm worried about what happens in a playoff series when teams can hone in on our weaknesses and flaws.

[Luigi]

We can't even trade for another PG-rental once Conley leaves next season.

We might extend him if he opts out. We'll have to see how it works.

Might I suggest a room at the local retirement home paid for by the Jazz as part of that contract? He will be in CP3 territory then.

He'll be on the older side, it's true. Conley is 2.5 years younger than Chris Paul. Paul will be useful this season, it's the end of his deal that is dangerous. I think a 3/60 could look good next summer, depending on how he looks. Of course, we wait to see how he plays.

[Onlynate23]

Notice how the Jazz like to give away future 1st picks for guards? I love that Conley is now on the team don't get me wrong. Just feels like we're always shooting ourselves in the foot, giving away too much for a "maybe" good playoff run .

[KqWIN]

If we don't get a championship this year, DL should be fired. Horrid trade, absolutely horrid.

We're not going to even make the WCF. What's likely to happen is that the rest of the teams who have yet to make their moves, will make them during the draft and free agency, and get better. In the end, we'll still end up as the 4-5 seed again, and will again have a 1st-2nd round exit.

I get that this is a win now move, but I don't jive with the logic that if we don't win a championship it is a failure. If we're holding this move to a standard, then we must also hold the other side of the deal that standard. For example, if the picks and cap space do not eventually lead to a championship, it is also failure.

The sky is always falling in the NBA, but in reality, neither direction actually increases our championship odds on a ton. Conley doesn't make us a championship juggernaut. But late first round picks and $30M in cap space when every max player is off the board also does not make you a championship juggernaut.

[SoCalJazzFan]

That being said, we must be on the lookout for ways to acquire swings in the draft now. Gotta have those rookie contracts coming in to keep building a competitive roster.

With what, our second round picks, that DL doesn't use?

Inigio is right, this is a win now move that handcuffs the Jazz for several years to come.

I do think we had to make a move during Mitchell's rookie window. This is probably the best available. (I'm taking the trade to indicate that Russell wasn't playing ball, same with Harris.)

I'm not so sure we'll be so handcuffed. There are a few variables here. It does have some risks involved though.

I agree that the window to make a move was between now and July 2020. I also think that Conley is a good fit for the Jazz, although he does have all of those age, size and injury concerns.

However, this is a shortsighted, crazy overpay that could damage the Jazz in the future. What perhaps bugs me the most is that it was done now before the dust settled the first part of July, when Conley could have been had for the same price and the Jazz would then know for sure that they struck out on other free agents, and the ridiculous "protections" on the 2nd pick. Did the Jazz really know that DLo was not on board with Utah, or was it that they didn't want to take the chance of failing or signing someone who smokes weed in a day and age where it is becoming increasingly acceptable and even legal?

At this point, it is a done deal, and I have to hold out hope that Conley does push the Jazz into the WCF with a shot of the Finals, that he isn't resigned when in his mid-30s, and that Exum finally becomes the player all bandwagoners has hoped he would become between now and then. If not, the Jazz could be in the 6-10 seed range for a while.

[Luigi]

Regular season is not the same as playoffs. Favors+Gobert has proven to be fine, even if not ideal, during the regular season for years. In both HOU series, Quin eventually went to 0 Favors PF minutes because of the defense HOU was playing. I'm not worried at all during the regular season. I'm worried about what happens in a playoff series when teams can hone in on our weaknesses and flaws.

Yeah, playoff matchups will affect things. Favors did sit for a stretch. On a side note, I gave the gameball to Favors for our win over the Rockets in that series. But it would have been nice if he could have played more minutes. Rockets small ball pretty well.

Minutes played in that series:
193 Mitchell
168 Rubio
152 Gobert
151 Ingles
137 O'Neale
130 Crowder
103 Favors
55 Niang
42 Sefolosha
30 Korver
20 Neto
14 Allen
6 Udoh

[Hikari]

I don't see a player option for Conley

https://hoopshype.com/salaries/memphis_grizzlies/

[MeestR]

To give up Crowder leaves a big hole in our "stretch 4" position. Jazz must know something is coming. I cant imagine giving up Crowder without some sort of insurance.

[Inigo Montoya]

If we don't get a championship this year, DL should be fired. Horrid trade, absolutely horrid.

We're not going to even make the WCF. What's likely to happen is that the rest of the teams who have yet to make their moves, will make them during the draft and free agency, and get better. In the end, we'll still end up as the 4-5 seed again, and will again have a 1st-2nd round exit.

I get that this is a win now move, but I don't jive with the logic that if we don't win a championship it is a failure. If we're holding this move to a standard, then we must also hold the other side of the deal that standard. For example, if the picks and cap space do not eventually lead to a championship, it is also failure.

The sky is always falling in the NBA, but in reality, neither direction actually increases our championship odds on a ton. Conley doesn't make us a championship juggernaut. But late first round picks and $30M in cap space when every max player is off the board also does not make you a championship juggernaut.

I'm not arguing we should win a championship for this to be worth it. I've been very consistent in my stance that I want the Jazz to be a legit contender, even if we fail to actually win a championship. That's the measuring stick for me. I don't think this trade makes us a legit contender. In fact, I think we'll probably end up in the 4-5 seed range again and the 1st-2nd round exit range again.

Also, no max player is off the board--free agency hasn't even started yet. We gave up even trying. Conley didn't have many takers at the price we paid, he'd likely still be on the trading block if\when we struck out. And if he wouldn't--at the price we paid that's no loss.

[stitches]

Now what happens if Conley leaves next year and Rudy is pissed off and leaves in 2021? We very well might give Memphis a top 10 pick in the double draft.

That might actually be one of the better outcomes. At least this way we'll be able to re-build and hopefully construct a better team around DM's timeline over time. The alternative is that Conely stays for the duration of his contract so we won't be able to get the 3rd piece we need for the long term. Then he leaves once his contract is up with the Jazz getting no where special during his stint, and the Jazz are left capped out with DM's max and Gobert's supermax and treadmilling for the next 5 seasons.

So... we extend Mitchell(4) years... we waste his 1st year(pick goes to MEM)... and we have 3 years to build a team from zero before Mitchell himself bolts... good luck with that. If we were going to build around Mitchell and not around Gobert's prime we should have traded Gobert now and not traded our picks.

[KqWIN]

Regular season is not the same as playoffs. Favors+Gobert has proven to be fine, even if not ideal, during the regular season for years. In both HOU series, Quin eventually went to 0 Favors PF minutes because of the defense HOU was playing. I'm not worried at all during the regular season. I'm worried about what happens in a playoff series when teams can hone in on our weaknesses and flaws.

Yeah, playoff matchups will affect things. Favors did sit for a stretch. On a side note, I gave the gameball to Favors for our win over the Rockets in that series. But it would have been nice if he could have played more minutes. Rockets small ball pretty well.

Minutes played in that series:
193 Mitchell
168 Rubio
152 Gobert
151 Ingles
137 O'Neale
130 Crowder
103 Favors
55 Niang
42 Sefolosha
30 Korver
20 Neto
14 Allen
6 Udoh

Favors does deserve a game ball, but Rudy is on the bench during that stretch and that's sort of the dilemna. Only one is on the court. Small ball isn't the issue either, it's leaving Favs wide open. Any team can do that whether they are playing small or not.

The Jazz will have to find a way to play around the 4v5, play small ball themselves, play Niang (which is small ball anyways), or find someone worth playing for $4.7M. It's a huge question mark

[Luigi]

With what, our second round picks, that DL doesn't use?

Inigio is right, this is a win now move that handcuffs the Jazz for several years to come.

I do think we had to make a move during Mitchell's rookie window. This is probably the best available. (I'm taking the trade to indicate that Russell wasn't playing ball, same with Harris.)

I'm not so sure we'll be so handcuffed. There are a few variables here. It does have some risks involved though.

I agree that the window to make a move was between now and July 2020. I also think that Conley is a good fit for the Jazz, although he does have all of those age, size and injury concerns.

However, this is a shortsighted, crazy overpay that could damage the Jazz in the future. What perhaps bugs me the most is that it was done now before the dust settled the first part of July, when Conley could have been had for the same price and the Jazz would then know for sure that they struck out on other free agents, and the ridiculous "protections" on the 2nd pick. Did the Jazz really know that DLo was not on board with Utah, or was it that they didn't want to take the chance of failing or signing someone who smokes weed in a day and age where it is becoming increasingly acceptable and even legal?

At this point, it is a done deal, and I have to hold out hope that Conley does push the Jazz into the WCF with a shot of the Finals, that he isn't resigned when in his mid-30s, and that Exum finally becomes the player all bandwagoners has hoped he would become between now and then. If not, the Jazz could be in the 6-10 seed range for a while.

I think I just don't value our typical late first rounders as highly. Our draft picks don't carry a ton of weight, we're a consistently good team. They have more value to us than to others, being in a small market. So it's hard to part with them. But I'm not getting the same strong reaction to the overpay. It was a bit above market. Not a catastrophe by my lights.

I think I would probably hold out longer than management does for free agents. But I don't think we were getting Russell or Harris this year. At least that's how I'm reading the trade.

[SoCalJazzFan]

Jazz have room exception ($4.8M) and vet minimums to get players is all, I believe. Don't get your hopes up for a savior stretch PF to come along.

[Daddy 801]

We're not going to even make the WCF. What's likely to happen is that the rest of the teams who have yet to make their moves, will make them during the draft and free agency, and get better. In the end, we'll still end up as the 4-5 seed again, and will again have a 1st-2nd round exit.

I get that this is a win now move, but I don't jive with the logic that if we don't win a championship it is a failure. If we're holding this move to a standard, then we must also hold the other side of the deal that standard. For example, if the picks and cap space do not eventually lead to a championship, it is also failure.

The sky is always falling in the NBA, but in reality, neither direction actually increases our championship odds on a ton. Conley doesn't make us a championship juggernaut. But late first round picks and $30M in cap space when every max player is off the board also does not make you a championship juggernaut.

I'm not arguing we should win a championship for this to be worth it. I've been very consistent in my stance that I want the Jazz to be a legit contender, even if we fail to actually win a championship. That's the measuring stick for me. I don't think this trade makes us a legit contender. In fact, I think we'll probably end up in the 4-5 seed range again and the 1st-2nd round exit range again.

I agree with your assessment of what should be expected. If the Jazz aren’t a top 3 team in the regular season and fail to make the WCF, then this will be a bad trade.

The thing the Jazz better hope for is a top 1-2 seed to avoid playing the better teams until later in the playoffs.

[Inigo Montoya]

I don't see a player option for Conley

https://hoopshype.com/salaries/memphis_grizzlies/

He has an Early Termination Option
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/memphis-grizzlies-team-salary/