How do the Jazz stack up against WC Contenders?

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Re: How do the Jazz stack up against WC Contenders? 

Post#61 » by dr0welf » Sun Jul 7, 2019 11:32 pm

San Antonio is looking like they are going to be more of a problem then I was expecting. They had some good FA pickups.
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Re: How do the Jazz stack up against WC Contenders? 

Post#62 » by Cappsy11 » Sun Jul 7, 2019 11:56 pm

I am one that normally is quite critical of the Jazz the past few years but i cant see why the Jazz this season can not be at least a 1 or 2 seed. Explain

1. Blazers have not improved. im not sure that Whiteside trade will help them at all. Losing Aminu and Harkless may hurt
2. Nuggets i think we match it with them and our defence is better. Milsap a little older now and not as efficient and Porter Jnr with injuries again i am reserved to think they are the best.
3. Thunder .. write them off and GOOD.
4. Wolves unless they get Westbrook then forget them and they are still trying to trade Wiggins and Covington.

So that's at least a 3 or 4 seed. In regards to the rest of the West

1. Lakers - have to remain healthy all year long. Cousins, Davis have had their injuries issues and Lebron another year older. Bench could be a real issue but roster not filled out yet ?????
2. Clippers - Yes real danger team. Great defensively and some tough vets Williams and Beverley
3. Warriors will be around but not till Thompson comes back will they be real dangerous. Again other injury away from not making the playoffs.
4- Rockets - with all the players up for trade except Harden not sure everything is smooth sailing in Houston. this could explode and i think their window is closing. Jazz have more shooters now.
5. Spurs.. You never know with Pop but think we have them covered.
6. Kings and Mavs.. Interesting teams and will be difficult to beat but not there yet.
7. Pelicans the unknown.., Reddick helps them immediately.. Interesting team but think we got them covered.

So there is a real chance for the Jazz but depends on how the Jazz round their roster out. If we could trade for Covington or Saric or a stretch 4 so Ingles can be 6th man then this side is deep. Maybe look at Jabrai Parker if no other options if he is cheap or some other options like Sefo, then the Jazz are real chance. if Korver came back that would be great.
Roster as:
PG Conley/Exum/ Mudiay/ Wright-Foreman
SG Mitchell/ O'Neale/ Exum
SF Bogdanovic / Ingles/ O'Neale/ Brantley
PF Green/ Niang/Ingles/ Davis ??
C Gorbert/ Davis/ Bradley
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Re: How do the Jazz stack up against WC Contenders? 

Post#63 » by Cappy_Smurf » Mon Jul 8, 2019 1:06 am

With good health, I think Utah is a top 3 team in the west.

However, there are so many good teams in the west, that even losing one or two games to injuries could drop us several spots.

If every team were to stay completely healthy, I think the Jazz and Clippers are the best 2 teams in the west.

I realize Jazz fans are afraid of getting their hopes up, but Conely alone is a big upgrade. Then you add Bojan, and the team has improved significantly on the offensive end. They drop a little defensively, but nowhere close to the improvement on offense. That's not even taking into accounts any improvements by Donovan. One huge problem with Mitchell last year was having to carry the offense early, and being worn out by the end of the game. That won't be an issue this year, and I expect Mitchell to become a late-game assassin once again.

I expect a minimum 5 game increase in wins and wouldn't be surprised by ten. Again though, it all depends on health.

Just for kicks, here are a couple of polls from the general board. It seems that non-Jazz fans are bigger believers in the team than a lot of Jazz fans.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1870077

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1870092
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Re: How do the Jazz stack up against WC Contenders? 

Post#64 » by dautjazz » Mon Jul 8, 2019 1:15 am

I think we'll be ranked 2nd, unless Leonard missed 20+ games again, but come playoff time, I'd say that the Clippers are the favorites, and I definitely wouldn't want to run into the Lakers. Not sure if the Rockets will get their **** together again, if they do, they would be a top 4 team, and I'd be a little worried this time around though, I don't see Mitchell wetting the bed again, and we got a ton more offensive weapons to throw at them.

To me the Blazers an Nuggets will probably put up nice 50+ win records, but I don't see them making a lot of noise in the playoffs. Warriors are hard to predict, depends what happens with DLO. I imagine they will try trading DLO for a forward. I can see them anywhere between 4-8 seeds. Finally I got the Pelicans.
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Re: How do the Jazz stack up against WC Contenders? 

Post#65 » by stitches » Mon Jul 8, 2019 5:13 am

Something to consider for the regular season - it's pretty clear that Kawhi will be on heavy "load management" schedule. I would expect him to miss at least 15-20 games. PG13 has not been the perfect picture of health either. He just had labrum surgery on BOTH shoulders and it's not clear whether he will be ready for the start of the season. Lets see how he returns to play... It's possible the Clippers are not the monster we expect at least in the regular season. The playoffs are a separate thing... although... we have the ultimate Playoff P stopper - Jingles. :D
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Re: How do the Jazz stack up against WC Contenders? 

Post#66 » by zero24gravity » Mon Jul 8, 2019 9:31 pm

Rauxcee wrote:
dr0welf wrote:I'm surprised by all the pessimism and I'm starting to think many of you use it to buffer expectations of what you truly think so you are not hurt if it doesn't result in the initial expectation. Similar to a hyped up movie that can never live up to given expectation so no matter how good the movie was you come out disappointed. I get it.


I'm surprised by all the optimism. I'm thinking it's because some of us are so hungry for this team to be legitimate again that its easy to talk ourselves up and hype ourselves up into something we aren't quite ready for. If we convince ourselves we are a contender, maybe we'll speak it into existence. I get it. :wink:


And the vast majority of ESPN, national writers & "experts" calling the Jazz a top 3 team in the West & a legit WCF team are also simply doing so because they are hungry to hype the Utah Jazz? Uh, no.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but I definitely think dr0welf is onto something when he says, "you use it to buffer expectations of what you truly think so you are not hurt if it doesn't result in the initial expectation" Some fans just like to be pessimistic & boarder on hating on their own team, just so there's nowhere to go than up, lessening the sting if expectations aren't met. If they do great, those fans can be happy, if they don't meet expectation, they are the first in line to say "I told you so". Win-win .... I guess.

Take the leap, get excited. It won't kill ya, I promise. :)
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Re: How do the Jazz stack up against WC Contenders? 

Post#67 » by Rauxcee » Tue Jul 9, 2019 12:41 am

zero24gravity wrote:
Rauxcee wrote:
dr0welf wrote:I'm surprised by all the pessimism and I'm starting to think many of you use it to buffer expectations of what you truly think so you are not hurt if it doesn't result in the initial expectation. Similar to a hyped up movie that can never live up to given expectation so no matter how good the movie was you come out disappointed. I get it.


I'm surprised by all the optimism. I'm thinking it's because some of us are so hungry for this team to be legitimate again that its easy to talk ourselves up and hype ourselves up into something we aren't quite ready for. If we convince ourselves we are a contender, maybe we'll speak it into existence. I get it. :wink:


And the vast majority of ESPN, national writers & "experts" calling the Jazz a top 3 team in the West & a legit WCF team are also simply doing so because they are hungry to hype the Utah Jazz? Uh, no.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but I definitely think dr0welf is onto something when he says, "you use it to buffer expectations of what you truly think so you are not hurt if it doesn't result in the initial expectation" Some fans just like to be pessimistic & boarder on hating on their own team, just so there's nowhere to go than up, lessening the sting if expectations aren't met. If they do great, those fans can be happy, if they don't meet expectation, they are the first in line to say "I told you so". Win-win .... I guess.

Take the leap, get excited. It won't kill ya, I promise. :)


I'll be interested to see where they rank us after FA is done. A lot of those rankings came before July 2nd, and quite a few teams have since improved.

What you call pessimism and setting low expectations, I call being grounded in reality. 8-)
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Re: How do the Jazz stack up against WC Contenders? 

Post#68 » by dr0welf » Tue Jul 9, 2019 1:49 am

Rauxcee wrote:
zero24gravity wrote:
Rauxcee wrote:
I'm surprised by all the optimism. I'm thinking it's because some of us are so hungry for this team to be legitimate again that its easy to talk ourselves up and hype ourselves up into something we aren't quite ready for. If we convince ourselves we are a contender, maybe we'll speak it into existence. I get it. :wink:


And the vast majority of ESPN, national writers & "experts" calling the Jazz a top 3 team in the West & a legit WCF team are also simply doing so because they are hungry to hype the Utah Jazz? Uh, no.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but I definitely think dr0welf is onto something when he says, "you use it to buffer expectations of what you truly think so you are not hurt if it doesn't result in the initial expectation" Some fans just like to be pessimistic & boarder on hating on their own team, just so there's nowhere to go than up, lessening the sting if expectations aren't met. If they do great, those fans can be happy, if they don't meet expectation, they are the first in line to say "I told you so". Win-win .... I guess.

Take the leap, get excited. It won't kill ya, I promise. :)


I'll be interested to see where they rank us after FA is done. A lot of those rankings came before July 2nd, and quite a few teams have since improved.

What you call pessimism and setting low expectations, I call being grounded in reality. 8-)


Grounding is good, until you want to take a leap. This year we needed to take a leap as a team and FO made what moves we all have been talking about that they could.

Going into free agency their was a few of us that talked about what a dream it would be to get Brogs on the team. Most of us thought that would be near impossible but it would be the perfect fit for us. Now that it has happened I for one am ecstatic. And Conley is the perfect PG for the team and his personality is amazing. He is the perfect fit for this team and area. He will bring a lot of savy and knowledge to the team. I expect him to stay on for his player option as well, but only time will tell
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Re: How do the Jazz stack up against WC Contenders? 

Post#69 » by Inigo Montoya » Tue Jul 9, 2019 2:20 pm

I always get a kick out of other people telling me what I'm truly thinking.
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Re: How do the Jazz stack up against WC Contenders? 

Post#70 » by Crunch 99 » Tue Jul 9, 2019 3:24 pm

dr0welf wrote:And Conley is the perfect PG for the team and his personality is amazing. He is the perfect fit for this team and area. He will bring a lot of savy and knowledge to the team. I expect him to stay on for his player option as well, but only time will tell


Everytime Conley opens his mouth, I am impressed. I was also very impressed that he recently received the "Teammate of the Year" and the "Sportsmanship" awards. It seems like even though Conley is not ranked in the very top tier of point guards like Irving and Westbrook, Conley's combination of talent and leadership may make him just as valuable to the team, or even more valuable, than those All Star point guards have been. Go Jazz!
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Re: How do the Jazz stack up against WC Contenders? 

Post#71 » by Crunch 99 » Tue Jul 9, 2019 3:37 pm

Rauxcee wrote:
I'll be interested to see where they rank us after FA is done. A lot of those rankings came before July 2nd, and quite a few teams have since improved.


Here are the current Vegas NBA championship odds. The Jazz come in at fifth in the West at 14:1 odds, behind the Clips, Lakers, Warriors and Rockets.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/futures/
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Re: How do the Jazz stack up against WC Contenders? 

Post#72 » by SoCalJazzFan » Tue Jul 9, 2019 6:02 pm

Crunch 99 wrote:
Rauxcee wrote:
I'll be interested to see where they rank us after FA is done. A lot of those rankings came before July 2nd, and quite a few teams have since improved.


Here are the current Vegas NBA championship odds. The Jazz come in at fifth in the West at 14:1 odds, behind the Clips, Lakers, Warriors and Rockets.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/futures/

The nice thing is that while there are a couple of clear favorites, any one of the top 6 teams in the West could potentially win it, particularly if a star gets injured or the like.

Also, there is this https://www.msn.com/en-us/entertainment/celebrity/romance-rumors-hit-kendall-jenner-and-rising-nba-star-kyle-kuzma-plus-more-news/ss-AAE2n1T?li=BBnb4R7 and maybe we can rely on the Kardashian curse to adversely affect the Lakers this season.
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Re: How do the Jazz stack up against WC Contenders? 

Post#73 » by Stern Fixer » Tue Jul 9, 2019 6:54 pm

Crunch 99 wrote:
dr0welf wrote:And Conley is the perfect PG for the team and his personality is amazing. He is the perfect fit for this team and area. He will bring a lot of savy and knowledge to the team. I expect him to stay on for his player option as well, but only time will tell


Everytime Conley opens his mouth, I am impressed. I was also very impressed that he recently received the "Teammate of the Year" and the "Sportsmanship" awards. It seems like though Conley is not ranked in the very top tier of point guards like Irving and Westbrook are, Conley's combination of talent and leadership may make him just as valuable to the team, or even more valuable, than those All Star point guards have been. Go Jazz!


With all the variables involved, teammates, market, media promotion etc., the idea that one can make an objective evaluation of what constitutes top tier is totally beyond me. I mean if we're going by the annual All-Star game, that's more a popularity contest than anything. Then there's the case of Russell Westbrook that regularly posts triple doubles but can't get his team out of the first round. I mean how many years has that team been in luxury tax hell with that guy trying to get one? KD didn't have any trouble after he got to GS.

I totally agree on the fit aspect and when it comes to point guards, given a certain level of aptitude, personality and ability to rally the troops are perhaps the most important thing. I mean I like our situation a lot better than Brooklyn's, where Irving's past actions might have coaching staff and players walking on eggshells at times.
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Re: How do the Jazz stack up against WC Contenders? 

Post#74 » by Rauxcee » Tue Jul 9, 2019 7:22 pm

Crunch 99 wrote:
Here are the current Vegas NBA championship odds. The Jazz come in at fifth in the West at 14:1 odds, behind the Clips, Lakers, Warriors and Rockets.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/futures/

Thanks. Interestingly enough, fifth is exactly where I'd rank the Jazz as far as odds. See? Grounded in reality.
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Re: How do the Jazz stack up against WC Contenders? 

Post#75 » by AGE1207 » Tue Jul 9, 2019 7:52 pm

Rauxcee wrote:
Crunch 99 wrote:
Here are the current Vegas NBA championship odds. The Jazz come in at fifth in the West at 14:1 odds, behind the Clips, Lakers, Warriors and Rockets.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/futures/

Thanks. Interestingly enough, fifth is exactly where I'd rank the Jazz as far as odds. See? Grounded in reality.


Sounds about right based on talent but we will have chemistry and that's an X-factor.
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Re: How do the Jazz stack up against WC Contenders? 

Post#76 » by stitches » Tue Jul 9, 2019 8:06 pm

Rauxcee wrote:
Crunch 99 wrote:
Here are the current Vegas NBA championship odds. The Jazz come in at fifth in the West at 14:1 odds, behind the Clips, Lakers, Warriors and Rockets.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/futures/

Thanks. Interestingly enough, fifth is exactly where I'd rank the Jazz as far as odds. See? Grounded in reality.

Vegas skews heavily when it comes to big market teams because they have tons of fans and fans bet with their heart, not with their brains. It's no coincidence both the Lakers and the Knicks have failed to cover the over on over/under lines in like 9 out of 10 seasons or something of the sort. IMO The Lakers and the Jazz should have about equal odds, but those lines are just another example of how easy it is for bookmakers to bring in money on positive outcomes for the big market teams.

I would be waiting for the CARMELO projections and the Pelton projections. They are much better indicator of where our optimism/pessimism should be.

Just an example. Here's the Goldstein's projections(by July 6th):
Image

We are no.5 but as you can see the West is very close at the top. 4 projected wins separate no. 2 and no. 7... Those teams are pretty much interchangeable and very reliant on injury luck.
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Re: How do the Jazz stack up against WC Contenders? 

Post#77 » by KqWIN » Tue Jul 9, 2019 8:28 pm

I've seen +1200 as odds for the Jazz to win a championship. Last year we were +10000. Even if we're 5th, the closeness and parity of the league gives us wayyyyy better odds to win the title.

The projection systems will hate our Bojan for Favors move btw...We're really banking on fit to overcome the numbers in order to improve.
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Re: How do the Jazz stack up against WC Contenders? 

Post#78 » by stitches » Tue Jul 9, 2019 8:34 pm

KqWIN wrote:I've seen +1200 as odds for the Jazz to win a championship. Last year we were +10000. Even if we're 5th, the closeness and parity of the league gives us wayyyyy better odds to win the title.

The projection systems will hate our Bojan for Favors move btw...We're really banking on fit to overcome the numbers in order to improve.

Yep... this exchange is the epitome and ultimate test of what I used to heavily believe - that quality of the player is much more impactful than the fit. I have somwhat softened my stance there, but still think there is something to say about just putting the best players on the floor for you. That's why I thought Quin was not optimizing our talent in certain situations by trying to avoid Favors+Gobert lineups too much instead of trying to maximize what they do best(offensive rebounding/defense)...

I guess we'll see this year. So many tests for this team - fit over quality, Gobert as the ultimate cheatcode on D... Will Mitchell be better with better spacing and initiation around him or is he what he is? Can Quin actually coax a great offense now that he has a much better fitting roster? etc...
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Re: How do the Jazz stack up against WC Contenders? 

Post#79 » by KqWIN » Tue Jul 9, 2019 8:43 pm

stitches wrote:
KqWIN wrote:I've seen +1200 as odds for the Jazz to win a championship. Last year we were +10000. Even if we're 5th, the closeness and parity of the league gives us wayyyyy better odds to win the title.

The projection systems will hate our Bojan for Favors move btw...We're really banking on fit to overcome the numbers in order to improve.

Yep... this exchange is the epitome and ultimate test of what I used to heavily believe - that quality of the player is much more impactful than the fit. I have somwhat softened my stance there, but still think there is something to say about just putting the best players on the floor for you. That's why I thought Quin was not optimizing our talent in certain situations by trying to avoid Favors+Gobert lineups too much instead of trying to maximize what they do best(offensive rebounding/defense)...

I guess we'll see this year. So many tests for this team - fit over quality, Gobert as the ultimate cheatcode on D... Will Mitchell be better with better spacing and initiation around him or is he what he is? Can Quin actually coax a great offense now that he has a much better fitting roster? etc...


The other trade off we'll be seeing is the depth. One of the reasons the projection systems will be low on us is because we're likely to have a lot of minutes played by analytic duds. Green, Exum, Niang, Mudiay, and Bojan to some extent all rank very poorly by the numbers. Meanwhile...Rubio, Neto, Thabo, Korver, Udoh, and Favors were all analytic darlings in some way.

I'm excited to see these tradeoffs because I simply didn't believe it was going to work if we kept operating the way we did. We've definitely stirred the pot and it's more interesting this time around.
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Re: How do the Jazz stack up against WC Contenders? 

Post#80 » by tleikheen » Tue Jul 9, 2019 8:50 pm

Jazz finally get smallball AFTER Toronto punishes Golden State (the best smallball team ever) in the championship with size . Now Lakers ,Blazers ,Clippers ,Nuggets ,Philly ,Milwaukee are all much bigger than the Jazz . When Jazz start getting punished on the boards and the bigger teams push the Jazz around they'll be wondering why they got rid of Favors.

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