How good will the offense be?

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How good will the offense be? 

Post#1 » by KqWIN » Thu Aug 8, 2019 5:33 pm

This question has been on my mind for a bit. The roster changes this summer were clearly directed at improving the offensive side of the ball. We've been ranked 16th and 15th in the past two seasons. Isn't it interesting that the same roster produced more or less the same results? Let's get a little more granular into the four factors.

2018

eFG% -9th
TOV% - 24th
REB% - 17th
Ftr - 8th

2019

eFG% -5th
TOV% - 27th
REB% - 13th
Ftr - 4th


HOU series aside...when the Jazz actually shoot the ball, they are really efficient. This is thanks to Gobert and Favors being super efficient at C and the great looks Quin's offense produces. However, it's also likely related to our extreme turnover rate. The best way to not turn the ball over is to shoot it, but the Jazz often turn down looks or are unable to create them on their own. This results in passes to the other team and into the stands. Our shot quality and efficiency isn't effected in those moments, but our total offense is. Rebounding wise we've been mediocre, and that's the result of having elite offensive rebounding talent and no desire to get them.

So where are we at now with the changes?

Our shooting efficiency should go up. Conley and Bogdanovic are significantly more efficient shooters than Rubio and Crowder. On the other hand, Favors in the bench unit was a beast and Ed Davis isn't nearly the offense force that Favs is as a C. Korver is another big loss to the bench, although Jeff Green was surprisingly very efficient last season. These are trade offs, one's that we probably win, but trade offs nonetheless.

The turnovers should go down as Mike Conley is one of the safest ball handlers in the league. In general we have much more offensive firepower and that should lead to less errant passes. But like I said before, this has some relation to our shooting efficiency. We'll have better shooters taking tougher shots because they are more willing and capable.

Rebounding should be the same or maybe a little worse with Davis and no Favs+Gobert minutes.

When I look at it from this perspective, it's hard not be optimistic. This offense should be really good and the best we've seen since the D-Will days. But for some reason I just have a slight hesitation in calling them a top 5 offense. I don't want to set myself up for disappointment. How are you guys feeling about the offense this year?
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Re: How good will the offense be? 

Post#2 » by babyjax13 » Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:31 pm

I'd go top 8 offense, but not surprised if better. I think the start of the season will have some uglies (always does, especially with new players and a shorter preseason).
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Re: How good will the offense be? 

Post#3 » by KqWIN » Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:24 pm

This is interesting...lot of Jazz relevant names here.

Mitchell - Never passes on drives, low team efficiency.
Exum - Balanced, ok efficiency when he shoots. Team efficiency is terrific.
Rubio - Never shoots, team efficiency pretty good
Mudiay - Terrible

This backs up my idea that the Jazz should just go full shooting around Exum+Rebounding big on the bench. You get a layup, lob, pass to open three, or easy rebound from the layup because he missed :)

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Re: How good will the offense be? 

Post#4 » by stitches » Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:27 pm

KqWIN wrote:This is interesting...lot of Jazz relevant names here.

Mitchell - Never passes on drives, low team efficiency.
Exum - Balanced, ok efficiency when he shoots. Team efficiency is terrific.
Rubio - Never shoots, team efficiency pretty good
Mudiay - Terrible

This backs up my idea that the Jazz should just go full shooting around Exum+Rebounding big on the bench. You get a layup, lob, pass to open three, or easy rebound from the layup because he missed :)

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IMO they should play both Ingles and Bogdanovic along with Exum coming off the bench... I kind of feel like Exum+Gobert chemistry is special and they need to forcefeed Exum some Gobert minutes. So... my idea would be... start Conley-Mitchell-Bogdanovic-AFour(whoever you prefer)-Gobert... then at 6 minute mark, take Mitchell and Conley (or the 4) off and get Dante and Ingles in, to play for the remaining 6 minutes of the 1st and 3d quarters with Gobert and Bogdanovic. Then take Gobert and the other remaining starters that haven't gotten a break yet(Bogdanovic, the 4) out at the end of the quarter and put on Davis+Mitchell+Conley. This way you maximize several different things - first Dante+spacing minutes, second Dante + Gobert minutes, third - Donovan+Conley minutes.

(this is all with the clarification that i'm not talking about the starters playing together simply because I don't have much worries for that lineup)
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Re: How good will the offense be? 

Post#5 » by stitches » Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:47 pm

BTW to answer your question - I think this team can be pretty good offensively. I think being top 10 should be the bare minimum as a goal for this roster and if they don't manage to at least hover around that mark this would be disappointing to me. As you've pointed out we substituted one of the most TO prone PGs in the league with one of the safest PGs with the ball in his hands. This should help a bit, although... I am still not sure that Conley can throw lobs. He's never had a lob threat of the caliber of Gobert before + every single new PG has a period of getting used to where Gobert likes the ball thrown to him(high) and where he has trouble gathering it(low). Gasol has some of the best hands in the league and it's possible adjusting to Gobert might prove to be a harder process than one would imagine.

The spacing and offensive creation of this roster is so much better than what we had last couple of years that it's hard for me to even project how much better we will be? Is it possible we push even for top 5 offensive efficiency? I kind of half expect it, because on paper this roster is very well constructed. I have said that before but we were middle of the league last couple of years while starting 3 non-shooters and having one single reliable offensive creator on the entire roster. Now both Conley and Bogdanovic can create and we are hopefully getting back Dante... and if you trust Mudiay(I don't) he's another option.

Just imagine it... spread PnR with either Conley or Mitchell... Gobert rolling to the rim(71% FG), Bogdanovic in the right corner(55%), Ingles in the left corner(49%).... Conley 41% on spot ups, Mitchell 46% on spot up... This team will be extremely hard to guard if we can stay healthy and if Mitchell takes another step up.

At this point I would be more surprised if we are outside of the top 10-12 than if we are inside the top 5 in offensive efficiency.
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Re: How good will the offense be? 

Post#6 » by KqWIN » Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:52 pm

stitches wrote:IMO they should play both Ingles and Bogdanovic along with Exum coming off the bench... I kind of feel like Exum+Gobert chemistry is special and they need to forcefeed Exum some Gobert minutes. So... my idea would be... start Conley-Mitchell-Bogdanovic-AFour(whoever you prefer)-Gobert... then at 6 minute mark, take Mitchell and Conley (or the 4) off and get Dante and Ingles in, to play for the remaining 6 minutes of the 1st and 3d quarters with Gobert and Bogdanovic. Then take Gobert and the other remaining starters that haven't gotten a break yet(Bogdanovic, the 4) out at the end of the quarter and put on Davis+Mitchell+Conley. This way you maximize several different things - first Dante+spacing minutes, second Dante + Gobert minutes, third - Donovan+Conley minutes.

(this is all with the clarification that i'm not talking about the starters playing together simply because I don't have much worries for that lineup)


I definitely think Exum-Gobert is worth forcing and we should surround it with shooting. My idea would be to give Gobert the short stints in a 6/6/6 fashion. Same starting lineup, but Gobert and Bogdanovic sub out with 6 minutes left. Then they sub back in with 9 minutes left (when Favors and Ingles used to) with Exum. Now you have Exum+Bogdanovic+Ingles+(a four, Niang is my choice)+Gobert in for the last 3 minutes of the first and last 3 minutes of the second quarter against bench units.

IMO, that's an unguardable bench unit. The only thing I don't like about the 6/6/6 is that it can force the backup into short 3-4 minute stints. If the player needs to get into a rhythm it can be tough, but I actually like a hustle big like Davis in two short stints where he can use all of his energy.
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Re: How good will the offense be? 

Post#7 » by KqWIN » Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:42 pm

stitches wrote:BTW to answer your question - I think this team can be pretty good offensively. I think being top 10 should be the bare minimum as a goal for this roster and if they don't manage to at least hover around that mark this would be disappointing to me. As you've pointed out we substituted one of the most TO prone PGs in the league with one of the safest PGs with the ball in his hands. This should help a bit, although... I am still not sure that Conley can throw lobs. He's never had a lob threat of the caliber of Gobert before + every single new PG has a period of getting used to where Gobert likes the ball thrown to him(high) and where he has trouble gathering it(low). Gasol has some of the best hands in the league and it's possible adjusting to Gobert might prove to be a harder process than one would imagine.

The spacing and offensive creation of this roster is so much better than what we had last couple of years that it's hard for me to even project how much better we will be? Is it possible we push even for top 5 offensive efficiency? I kind of half expect it, because on paper this roster is very well constructed. I have said that before but we were middle of the league last couple of years while starting 3 non-shooters and having one single reliable offensive creator on the entire roster. Now both Conley and Bogdanovic can create and we are hopefully getting back Dante... and if you trust Mudiay(I don't) he's another option.

Just imagine it... spread PnR with either Conley or Mitchell... Gobert rolling to the rim(71% FG), Bogdanovic in the right corner(55%), Ingles in the left corner(49%).... Conley 41% on spot ups, Mitchell 46% on spot up... This team will be extremely hard to guard if we can stay healthy and if Mitchell takes another step up.

At this point I would be more surprised if we are outside of the top 10-12 than if we are inside the top 5 in offensive efficiency.


This is a big deal that I think deserves more attention. I've watched a few games of Conley closely and his passing isn't something that is a perfect fit for what we do. Gasol and Gobert are completely different, so it makes sense, but it is a different skill set and chemistry that doesn't just come naturally. Rubio's horrendous chemistry with Gobert really brought that to light for me.

Conley is sort of like Alex Smith as QB. He throws conservative passes that put guys in a decent position to make a play...a check down if you will. He mostly passed it to Gasol into little pockets of space where Gasol would then make one or two moves into a shot or pass. He rarely throws risky passes through or above the defense.

It's just a different type of pass to Gobert that not everyone has.
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Re: How good will the offense be? 

Post#8 » by stitches » Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:55 pm

Yeah, Conley's most impressive and consistent pass is the pocket pass to Gasol whose hands look like they have Velcro and the ball sticks to them every single time. But that's exactly the pass that Gobert has had troubles with before. Anything low, anything in tight spaces or with bodies around him is far from ideal. I guess... the other part of the equation is - Conley hasn't had an above the rim threat like Gobert. For all we know he is awesome at those, but he just didn't have a player of that sort to throw lobs to. I might have go back and look at old Brandon Wright highlights and see how he did with him(edit: just checked and couldn't find Brandan Wright highlights in Memphis :D )
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Re: How good will the offense be? 

Post#9 » by Catchall » Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:26 pm

I think good. Conley, Mitchell and Bogdanovic are all good for 30+ points on any given night. Gobert is likely to lead the league in dunks and FG%. There's plenty of offense. Let's say top 4-6 in the league.
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Re: How good will the offense be? 

Post#10 » by SoCalJazzFan » Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:59 pm

This is the way I see it, which is admittedly more simple in nature.

Favors played 739 of his total 1766 mins with Gobert, or in other words 42% of his time as PF.

There will be some drop off, most likely, in offensive production between Favors' mins and Ed Davis' mins as center (I'm assuming that the minutes are roughly equal), but it won't be much, maybe like a bucket a game.

Any of Green, Bojan or Ingles should be able to improve the offense quite a bit as compared to Favors and Crowder at the PF position. At a minimum, the floor will be spread out more keeping defenses honest and opening things up for the guards and Gobert on drives and/or scoring at the rim.

Of course, Conley is much more of an offensive threat than Rubio, which will also be a factor in opening up shots and lanes and rim scoring opportunities.

The offense has to improve quite a bit, as I see the defense slipping with Rubio and Favors gone. Perhaps the defense slips to 5 and the offense up to around 8?

At least at first, I see the following starters and subs:
Conley, DM, Bojan, Green and Gobert.
First sub is Ingles for Green (not sure whether you classify Bojan or Ingles as PF).
Next subs are Exum, Royce, Niang and Davis ( w/Ingles).
Green would be reinserted for either Niang or Ingles before the other starters come back in (possible limited overlap of Exum and Gobert depending on how subbed- hopefully, Davis is good on the lobs as I see him on court more with Exum than Gobert). (Edit: also some possible overlap with Mitchell and Exum playing together, which I am sure that the Jazz hope to be the future backcourt).

I don't see the other players being in the rotation other than for injury or spot minutes depending on game situations.
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Re: How good will the offense be? 

Post#11 » by Cappy_Smurf » Wed Oct 2, 2019 10:29 pm

SoCalJazzFan wrote:
At least at first, I see the following starters and subs:
Conley, DM, Bojan, Green and Gobert.
First sub is Ingles for Green (not sure whether you classify Bojan or Ingles as PF).
Next subs are Exum, Royce, Niang and Davis ( w/Ingles).
Green would be reinserted for either Niang or Ingles before the other starters come back in (possible limited overlap of Exum and Gobert depending on how subbed- hopefully, Davis is good on the lobs as I see him on court more with Exum than Gobert). (Edit: also some possible overlap with Mitchell and Exum playing together, which I am sure that the Jazz hope to be the future backcourt).

I don't see the other players being in the rotation other than for injury or spot minutes depending on game situations.


IMO, Niang will also have a hard time getting any minutes, unless there are injuries. There's going to be a few guys who deserve more minutes than they will be getting, and playing Niang will only eat into that.
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Re: How good will the offense be? 

Post#12 » by KqWIN » Wed Oct 2, 2019 11:46 pm

Cappy_Smurf wrote:
SoCalJazzFan wrote:
At least at first, I see the following starters and subs:
Conley, DM, Bojan, Green and Gobert.
First sub is Ingles for Green (not sure whether you classify Bojan or Ingles as PF).
Next subs are Exum, Royce, Niang and Davis ( w/Ingles).
Green would be reinserted for either Niang or Ingles before the other starters come back in (possible limited overlap of Exum and Gobert depending on how subbed- hopefully, Davis is good on the lobs as I see him on court more with Exum than Gobert). (Edit: also some possible overlap with Mitchell and Exum playing together, which I am sure that the Jazz hope to be the future backcourt).

I don't see the other players being in the rotation other than for injury or spot minutes depending on game situations.


IMO, Niang will also have a hard time getting any minutes, unless there are injuries. There's going to be a few guys who deserve more minutes than they will be getting, and playing Niang will only eat into that.


I think he will find a way to get minutes on this roster. There's enough positional versatility to make him fit. I'd have him over Mudiay and Exum, for example. I think there's a good chance we're calling for him to play more than Jeff Green. I'm a big believer in his game.
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Re: How good will the offense be? 

Post#13 » by Rauxcee » Thu Oct 3, 2019 12:11 am

I'm just looking forward to not having 5+ minute stretches of no scoring on an almost nightly basis anymore.

At least I hope that's behind us now.
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Re: How good will the offense be? 

Post#14 » by pickIBL » Thu Oct 3, 2019 1:21 am

Simple answer. Muy bueno.
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Re: How good will the offense be? 

Post#15 » by sipclip » Thu Oct 3, 2019 2:07 am

KqWIN wrote:
Cappy_Smurf wrote:
SoCalJazzFan wrote:
At least at first, I see the following starters and subs:
Conley, DM, Bojan, Green and Gobert.
First sub is Ingles for Green (not sure whether you classify Bojan or Ingles as PF).
Next subs are Exum, Royce, Niang and Davis ( w/Ingles).
Green would be reinserted for either Niang or Ingles before the other starters come back in (possible limited overlap of Exum and Gobert depending on how subbed- hopefully, Davis is good on the lobs as I see him on court more with Exum than Gobert). (Edit: also some possible overlap with Mitchell and Exum playing together, which I am sure that the Jazz hope to be the future backcourt).

I don't see the other players being in the rotation other than for injury or spot minutes depending on game situations.


IMO, Niang will also have a hard time getting any minutes, unless there are injuries. There's going to be a few guys who deserve more minutes than they will be getting, and playing Niang will only eat into that.


I think he will find a way to get minutes on this roster. There's enough positional versatility to make him fit. I'd have him over Mudiay and Exum, for example. I think there's a good chance we're calling for him to play more than Jeff Green. I'm a big believer in his game.
I don't think there is anyway that he plays more than Green. In fact I think Green ends up playing about 30 minutes a game and has a career year. He has the potential to be an incredible fit for this team.

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Re: How good will the offense be? 

Post#16 » by BudTugly » Thu Oct 3, 2019 4:25 am

Feels like we are going to be as good as Mitchell is. He is the guy on the launching pad
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Re: How good will the offense be? 

Post#17 » by KqWIN » Thu Oct 3, 2019 4:11 pm

sipclip wrote:
KqWIN wrote:
Cappy_Smurf wrote:
IMO, Niang will also have a hard time getting any minutes, unless there are injuries. There's going to be a few guys who deserve more minutes than they will be getting, and playing Niang will only eat into that.


I think he will find a way to get minutes on this roster. There's enough positional versatility to make him fit. I'd have him over Mudiay and Exum, for example. I think there's a good chance we're calling for him to play more than Jeff Green. I'm a big believer in his game.
I don't think there is anyway that he plays more than Green. In fact I think Green ends up playing about 30 minutes a game and has a career year. He has the potential to be an incredible fit for this team.

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Could be. Green is really settling into a more efficient game as he's gotten older. Looks like Quin is trying to use his grab and go, initiating ability too..so that will be interesting. I'm just really high on Niang. I think he's a lights out shooter with good ball handling ability and scoring chops. He's not good enough to create his own stuff...but if you put him as the 4th or 5th guy around real creators I think he will do very well when the space and advantage is made for him. Then again, the same can be said for Jeff Green. His game is all transition, spot ups, and attacking closeouts now.

Looking back at last year, he's the guy I think Quin should have gotten more chances. We ended up having to go to him in the playoffs anyways, but it would have been better if he had more minutes under his belt. It will be a nice change from Crowder who was somehow still below league average efficiency on the easiest shots in the league. Niang and Green could both be +60% TS this season. They were last year.

I could see Green and Niang taking the majority of the PF minutes during the regular season. Save the CoDoBoJoGo lineup some wear and tear for the bigger moments.
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Re: How good will the offense be? 

Post#18 » by JazzyPhinz » Thu Oct 3, 2019 4:45 pm

KqWIN wrote:
sipclip wrote:
KqWIN wrote:
I think he will find a way to get minutes on this roster. There's enough positional versatility to make him fit. I'd have him over Mudiay and Exum, for example. I think there's a good chance we're calling for him to play more than Jeff Green. I'm a big believer in his game.
I don't think there is anyway that he plays more than Green. In fact I think Green ends up playing about 30 minutes a game and has a career year. He has the potential to be an incredible fit for this team.

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Could be. Green is really settling into a more efficient game as he's gotten older. Looks like Quin is trying to use his grab and go, initiating ability too..so that will be interesting. I'm just really high on Niang. I think he's a lights out shooter with good ball handling ability and scoring chops. He's not good enough to create his own stuff...but if you put him as the 4th or 5th guy around real creators I think he will do very well when the space and advantage is made for him. Then again, the same can be said for Jeff Green. His game is all transition, spot ups, and attacking closeouts now.

Looking back at last year, he's the guy I think Quin should have gotten more chances. We ended up having to go to him in the playoffs anyways, but it would have been better if he had more minutes under his belt. It will be a nice change from Crowder who was somehow still below league average efficiency on the easiest shots in the league. Niang and Green could both be +60% TS this season. They were last year.

I could see Green and Niang taking the majority of the PF minutes during the regular season. Save the CoDoBoJoGo lineup some wear and tear for the bigger moments.


I love me some Niang, but he just gets destroyed on defense and rebounding. His lack of athleticism really hurts him.
As we saw last year I can only see him on the floor when the other teams bench is in and even that is matchup dependant.
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Re: How good will the offense be? 

Post#19 » by KqWIN » Thu Oct 3, 2019 5:19 pm

JazzyPhinz wrote:
KqWIN wrote:
sipclip wrote:I don't think there is anyway that he plays more than Green. In fact I think Green ends up playing about 30 minutes a game and has a career year. He has the potential to be an incredible fit for this team.

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Could be. Green is really settling into a more efficient game as he's gotten older. Looks like Quin is trying to use his grab and go, initiating ability too..so that will be interesting. I'm just really high on Niang. I think he's a lights out shooter with good ball handling ability and scoring chops. He's not good enough to create his own stuff...but if you put him as the 4th or 5th guy around real creators I think he will do very well when the space and advantage is made for him. Then again, the same can be said for Jeff Green. His game is all transition, spot ups, and attacking closeouts now.

Looking back at last year, he's the guy I think Quin should have gotten more chances. We ended up having to go to him in the playoffs anyways, but it would have been better if he had more minutes under his belt. It will be a nice change from Crowder who was somehow still below league average efficiency on the easiest shots in the league. Niang and Green could both be +60% TS this season. They were last year.

I could see Green and Niang taking the majority of the PF minutes during the regular season. Save the CoDoBoJoGo lineup some wear and tear for the bigger moments.


I love me some Niang, but he just gets destroyed on defense and rebounding. His lack of athleticism really hurts him.
As we saw last year I can only see him on the floor when the other teams bench is in and even that is matchup dependant.


Unfortunately, Jeff Green isn't so great in those areas either. Green sizes up well, but he's never been a good defender. Defense and rebounding from that position is certainly not a strength of this team.
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Re: How good will the offense be? 

Post#20 » by Catchall » Thu Oct 3, 2019 11:00 pm

I think our offense will be improved. Conley and Mitchell will move the ball to bonafide threats that we didn't have last year. Gobert will have more space to carve out position and make a play at the rim. Bojan sounds like a versatile player. Royce O'Neale should pick things up with the confidence he had in the playoffs last year.

I'd like to see Royce play with the starters to provide defensive energy and crash the offensive glass. We also need some toughness and physicality on offense. Royce can be that high-energy dude who does the dirty work and scores opportunistically.

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