ASB - Jazz expectations re-boot?

MTJazzv3 · Post #1 » by **MTJazzv3** » Tue Feb 4, 2020 1:35 am

We are all very well aware of where our own pre-season expectations were and where the team is now. We have hashed the Conely not playing up to salary, the surprise of Clarkson, the love/hate with Niang, how Green didn't and Davis doesn't fit, or Exum and wow, that Bogie thing is still looking worth it. Plus Rudy and Mitchell are all-stars. So what is your take now, barring an unlikely trade before Thursday and the Jazz's current record, on the Jazz season ceiling?

I'll offer up that I'm currently feeling a second round playoff toss-up with a likely out. On the positive side, I don't think this team is hitting on all existing cylinders yet and for whatever reason the Jazz have a record of going on a tear post ASB, so my "who knows" uncertainty factor is present with respect to a trip to the WCF. On the other side of things, I could see the Jazz slipping to the 5 seed and washing out first round. What I am not feeling is an elite contending team, which I dared to consider. You all?

dr0welf · Post #2 » by **dr0welf** » Tue Feb 4, 2020 2:19 am

I think the season is always full of up and downs and that the Jazz are very competitive at times. They have the whole season to get this figured out completely and at times they are close. But other times they are not all clicking and we are seeing it now. I believe we will be good come playoffs and we will have to get hot at the right time if we want a deep playoff run with a potential of a championship opportunity. A lot of minor issues are causing a ton of turnovers, lack of defensive rebounding, and open lanes. They have time to clean it up.

I don't see a trade happening anymore this year so I think we need to hope this team can figure it out.

KqWIN · Post #3 » by **KqWIN** » Tue Feb 4, 2020 6:06 am

The team needs to get back to playing defense. We should have expected a defensive dropoff...but the effort has been dreadful. Even when we were winning the defense wasn't so great. I believe putting in more effort and focus will go a long way, but the defensive talent is pretty bad on the bench.

babyjax13 · Post #4 » by **babyjax13** » Tue Feb 4, 2020 7:04 am

I agree that the defense is a problem. But the nice thing is that early in the season we saw a very good defensive team, and lately we've seen an amazing offensive team. I think by the end of the year we figure out how to put it together on both ends. Dissapointed in Conley, but considering how good Clarkson has been, I'm considering our overall backcourt situation as an upgrade. Would like to grab a power forward: Mike Scott seems attainable.

Post #5 » by **Inigo Montoya** » Tue Feb 4, 2020 4:36 pm

I tend to agree with the OP. It was easy to get carried away during the 20-game stretch vs weak opponents where the Jazz won a lot, but when faced against good teams, the Jazz look somewhat like they used to in the beginning of the season, and are very unconvincing, to say the least.

Unfortunately, my opinion from the offseaon did not change. I think this team is capable of stretches of good basketball and can be pretty good at times, but it is not elite and not a real title contender. Depending on seeding and playoff matchups, I can see us making it to the second round, where we'll likely face either the Clippers or Lakers, and then go fishing.

Rauxcee · Post #6 » by **Rauxcee** » Wed Feb 5, 2020 1:37 am

I expect the Jazz to finish with the 5th seed (as they have the past 3 years) and depending on who they match up with it'll be a first or second round exit.

D Rog · Post #7 » by **D Rog** » Wed Feb 5, 2020 3:37 am

i think the Jazz get a 4th or 5th seed. The sad thing is they spent a lot of assets this past summer to get Conley, let Favors go and got a lot weaker in the back up center position. They have pretty much tied up or traded away any assets to improve themselves for the foreseeable future and lost a lot of flexibility with the Conley deal.

TNJazz · Post #8 » by **TNJazz** » Wed Feb 5, 2020 3:08 pm

This next bit B4 the ASB will say a great deal about this years team. They have shown incredible mental weakness in the last 4 games, possibly due to the relief felt when RG and DM were selected as all-stars. Now that the feeling has ebbed, these next 5 games will tell everyone the type of team they are. One that can compete with the better teams in the West or one that can only feast on the poorer teams the league. I think they have the skill and pieces to be one of the top teams, its their mental toughness and team concept buy in that will be the difference. These next games are important for them to make a statement to themselves and the league as to what their makeup is.

vryadli · Post #9 » by **vryadli** » Wed Feb 5, 2020 4:23 pm

I more and more convinced that Jazz offence ... has kind of non-proportional dependence on opponent quality not as fluke but by design. It is good on weak teams but as soon as opponent shows some resistance, it just fall apart. May it is too complicated by design or it it works only if players are in comfort zone...

but n ow it is most systematic crushing bottom feeders and at the same time most of underachieving with average-to-good teams that I ever saw from Utah - that's' for 25 years.

BarneyGumble · Post #10 » by **BarneyGumble** » Wed Feb 5, 2020 7:37 pm

Jazz will figure some things out and get back to being a threat to beat real contenders on any given night but I am not sold that we ourselves are a real contender. I think we lose in Round 1 or Round 2, honestly.

MTJazzv3 · Post #11 » by **MTJazzv3** » Fri Feb 7, 2020 4:10 am

Last night is kind of a consensus around the league on the Jazz prospects - (not good). I have no reason for hope either - just confused about how the team is so under-achieving right now and how that portends for the rest of the season. I truly feel it is team psychology that is happening and impregnable to us on the outside.

KqWIN · Post #12 » by **KqWIN** » Fri Feb 7, 2020 6:07 am

Things are lining up for another HOU series. It's probably the most likely series to happen in the league right now. OKC and DAL won't catch up to UTA or HOU, but HOU and UTA can't catch up to DEN, LAC, and LAL.

We are a mentally weak, soft basketball team that prioritizes individual over team. If Quin can't change their mentality, we will be embarrassed in the playoffs once again. At this point, it looks like the players would be happy losing every game if it meant that they got a couple more hero ball possessions each.

This team's talent reminds me of the 16/17 Jazz, which I was extremely high on. That team fell apart due to injuries and selfishness...If Quin fails to get a talented team to buy in again, it's worth noting.

Crunch 99 · Post #13 » by **Crunch 99** » Fri Feb 7, 2020 2:34 pm

While suffering from recency bias, I am not feeling very optimistic.

I hope I am wrong:

OKC, who has the second best win percentage in the NBA over the last 35 games at 71.4%, drops the Jazz to sixth place. The number six Jazz then face off against number three Denver in the first round of playoffs and Denver takes the series 4-2.

TNJazz · Post #14 » by **TNJazz** » Fri Feb 7, 2020 2:57 pm

I think losing 4-2 might be overly optimistic. :banghead:

Post #15 » by **Inigo Montoya** » Fri Feb 7, 2020 3:19 pm

Now that the trade deadline is over, we know this roster is what we're rolling with for the rest of the season. I don't think it's good enough to get past the second round.

MTJazzv3 · Post #16 » by **MTJazzv3** » Fri Feb 7, 2020 8:46 pm

But but but....Conley. What if he starts playing to salary and leadership role? (I know, I'm not optimistic either, but it could happen. Weird it hasn't happened, in fact).

eLo · Post #17 » by **eLo** » Sat Feb 8, 2020 9:33 pm

Inigo Montoya wrote:Now that the trade deadline is over, we know this roster is what we're rolling with for the rest of the season. I don't think it's good enough to get past the second round.

with what we are playing lately i dont think its good enough to get past 1rd :evil:

MTJazzv3 · Post #18 » by **MTJazzv3** » Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:48 am

After the loss to the hated ROX last night any fan media I've checked is basically checking out on the Jazz prospects right now, beat writers include. I really think this collapse of interest relates to the fact that the franchise was "supposed" to be a contender this year and the reality is who knows if they get out of the first round. Very little time for the Jazz to show anything beyond what we have seen all season - a good team who inevitably trips over their own butts on a maddening basis and won't even let the fans sniff contender base on season long performance.

Post #19 » by **Inigo Montoya** » Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:31 pm

MTJazzv3 wrote:After the loss to the hated ROX last night any fan media I've checked is basically checking out on the Jazz prospects right now, beat writers include. I really think this collapse of interest relates to the fact that the franchise was "supposed" to be a contender this year and the reality is who knows if they get out of the first round. Very little time for the Jazz to show anything beyond what we have seen all season - a good team who inevitably trips over their own butts on a maddening basis and won't even let the fans sniff contender base on season long performance.

Unfortunately it's worse than that. Due to the pending DM max and Gobert supermax deals, we won't have the cap space or assets to become much better than we are for the next 4-5 years after Conley expires. This was supposed to be it--the Jazz putting together a true contender finally, and we're not. We're about the same as we were in the past 3 seasons or so. It's not only that we're unlikely to get past the 2nd round this season, we're unlikely to do that for the next 4-5 seasons. We're going to be treadmilling for the next half-decade because of the Conley trade.

zero24gravity · Post #20 » by **zero24gravity** » Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:42 pm

Inigo Montoya wrote:
MTJazzv3 wrote:After the loss to the hated ROX last night any fan media I've checked is basically checking out on the Jazz prospects right now, beat writers include. I really think this collapse of interest relates to the fact that the franchise was "supposed" to be a contender this year and the reality is who knows if they get out of the first round. Very little time for the Jazz to show anything beyond what we have seen all season - a good team who inevitably trips over their own butts on a maddening basis and won't even let the fans sniff contender base on season long performance.

Unfortunately it's worse than that. Due to the pending DM max and Gobert supermax deals, we won't have the cap space or assets to become much better than we are for the next 4-5 years after Conley expires. This was supposed to be it--the Jazz putting together a true contender finally, and we're not. We're about the same as we were in the past 3 seasons or so. It's not only that we're unlikely to get past the 2nd round this season, we're unlikely to do that for the next 4-5 seasons. We're going to be treadmilling for the next half-decade because of the Conley trade.

The moves the FO made were a calculated risk, and seemed like smart moves overall. Big trades, signing, etc. were being clamored for by the fanbase, and the timing of the Warriors short-demise made it the right time to go for it. Going all-in while on DM's rookie deal was also a factor. I'm not mad at the front office for the effort. Sometimes even smart, well thought out ideas just don't work out.

The one thing that was glaring to me from the get-go, was they traded in their defensive identity & size which were the hallmarks of their past few years success. Gobert alone doesn't make team defense. I get that Ed Davis & Jeff Green didn't pan out as they hoped, and seemed like good bench pieces. Still, the thought that Bogy (who is a terrible defender, rebounder ... not to mention dribbler & passer) was going to play "power forward" was silly. Granted, he was a pivot from Mirotic, who would have been a better fit, so again, can I be mad at the FO for getting a 20ppg guy after their primary target bailed to Spain? Probably not.

Conley's struggles couldn't have been foreseen, even if you were someone who thought he was not worth his contract.

Still, while I appreciated the Clarkson move, I wish I would have seen something to add some length & toughness to this team before the trade deadline. They get outworked on a pretty regular basis, which is frustrating to see. At this point, I don't see the drawback to infusing a little life with trying out someone like Brantley, or possibly signing a veteran player to restructure the bench a bit (I didn't do enough research to know if any of these guys are under contract in Europe or elsewhere); R.Anderson, Gortat, Monroe, Jerebko, M.Beasley. Amir Johnson, A.Bennett, Faried, Mbah a Moute, Wesley Johnson.

There's just "something" missing with this collective. They have a ton of talent. Are they simply too nice? Are they full of themselves? Is there some kind of internal power-struggle going on that we are oblivious to? Are they _____? I have no clue. I just know that they are under-performing. Eye test says it's something in the effort, but that's really hard to measure & change.

I don't want to continue fast forwarding through my DVR'd games for 5-8 minutes at a time (or 2.5 quarters in the case of the Spurs game), because I can literally see when the effort collapse is going to happen and can't stomach watching it. I don't care about missed open shots. I care about missed defensive assignments, allowing offensive rebounds, not fighting for loose balls, etc.. I don't really think it is on the coaches, but if the players can't fix it, then maybe a statement needs to be made by Snyder. Effort over talent. Defense over 3's. Heart & toughness over paycheck size.

They have time to turn this around, and the talent to be good. Plus, anything can happen in the playoffs, especially if a team with as many weapons as the Jazz gets hot. Right the ship, Jazzmen!