21-22 Outlook-Games played

[AingesBurner]

I think the Jazz are going to be more conservative with the amount of games played by our guys come playoff time. I’m not sure the #1 seed is as important after the playoffs. I think player rest is going to be huge this season so they are ready come playoffs and we will see our important players will rest against bad teams. Here is how I see how games played:

Rudy Gobert: 70 games
Donovan: 72 games
Conley: 55 games
Bogey*: 72 games
Ingles*: 70 games
O’Neale: 75 games
Clarkson: 75 games
Rudy Gay: 70 games
Whiteside: 72 games
Paschall: 41 games(20 with major minutes)
Butler: 50 games(30 with major minutes)
Oni: 50 games(10 with major minutes)


*signifies possibly traded

Feel free to post thinking on games played.

[babyjax13]

I really doubt Ingles gets traded, I think he is a Jazz lifer.

I think we can do a reasonable approximation of what will happen with games played w/rest, etc. based on the 18-19 schedule:

As part of the 2018-19 schedule, the number of times when teams play games on back-to-back days will be an all-time low for the fourth consecutive season. The team average is 13.3 back-to-backs this season, down 31 percent since the 2014-15 season (19.3 per team). For the second season in a row, no team is scheduled to play a stretch with four games in five days. In addition, instances when teams play five games in seven days (0.7 per team) has been reduced by 42 percent from last season (1.2 per team) and 77 percent from the 2016-17 season (3.0 per team).

So, let's call that 14 games Conley and Ingles won't play with back-to-backs. I also think we will rest older guys prior to the all-star break, so let's say the three games before, that way they can essentially get an extra week of rest+recovery. I think Bogey rests some back-to-backs as well, but not all of them. I'll say 1/3rd of them + the 3 game stretch before the all-star break (maybe we do this with Mitchell + Gobert as well, since 3 games is pretty inconsequential for awards, but the extra rest would be great for recovery). Then, I think the last week of the season (again, we will say 3 games) we rest all of Conley/Ingles/Bogdanovic, and the rest of the rotation sees reduced minutes. So lets call that:

Conley: 62 games (-7 due to injuries/rest, see below)
Ingles: 62 games
Bogdanovic: 71 games
Gay: 76 games
Gobert: 79 games
Mitchell: 79 games
Paschall: 72 games (41 with major minutes)

We probably stagger the games Ingles and Conley miss on back-to-backs, which opens up 28 games Paschall gets minutes. He will also play those games before the all-star break and end of season, so that is another 6. That gives him 34 games with major minutes. Then, you have to assume that there are some games missed with injury, Conley tends to miss a lot, so we will say 10% of the games he is slated to play he misses (so, he is down to 55 games) which opens up another 7 games of major minutes for Paschall as we shift around rotations, giving him 41, which sounds about right. I think he at least gets garbage-time minutes in every game that we win by a large margin, and plays in games where guys have foul trouble, and I will just call that 31 games for lulz.

I really like where our rotation is, I'm imagining it as:

Conley + Ingles games:
Gobert 32/Whiteside 16
Bogdanovic 28/Gay 16/Paschall 4
O'neale 24/Ingles 24
Mitchell 24/Clarkson 24
Conley 30/Mitchell 10/Butler 8

Conley - Ingles games:
Gobert 32/Whiteside 16
Bogdanovic 8/Gay 20/Paschall 20
O'neale 24/Bogdanovic 24
Mitchell 24/Clarkson 24
Conley 30/Mitchell 10/Butler 8

Ingles - Conley games:
Gobert 32/Whiteside 16
Bogdanovic 16/Gay 20/Paschall 12
Ingles 24/O'neale 10/Bogdanovic 14
Clarkson 30/Mitchell 4/O'neale 14
Mitchell 30/Butler 10/Forrest 8

[AingesBurner]

I really doubt Ingles gets traded, I think he is a Jazz lifer.

I think we can do a reasonable approximation of what will happen with games played w/rest, etc. based on the 18-19 schedule:

As part of the 2018-19 schedule, the number of times when teams play games on back-to-back days will be an all-time low for the fourth consecutive season. The team average is 13.3 back-to-backs this season, down 31 percent since the 2014-15 season (19.3 per team). For the second season in a row, no team is scheduled to play a stretch with four games in five days. In addition, instances when teams play five games in seven days (0.7 per team) has been reduced by 42 percent from last season (1.2 per team) and 77 percent from the 2016-17 season (3.0 per team).

So, let's call that 14 games Conley and Ingles won't play with back-to-backs. I also think we will rest older guys prior to the all-star break, so let's say the three games before, that way they can essentially get an extra week of rest+recovery. I think Bogey rests some back-to-backs as well, but not all of them. I'll say 1/3rd of them + the 3 game stretch before the all-star break (maybe we do this with Mitchell + Gobert as well, since 3 games is pretty inconsequential for awards, but the extra rest would be great for recovery). Then, I think the last week of the season (again, we will say 3 games) we rest all of Conley/Ingles/Bogdanovic, and the rest of the rotation sees reduced minutes. So lets call that:

Conley: 62 games (-7 due to injuries/rest, see below)
Ingles: 62 games
Bogdanovic: 71 games
Gay: 76 games
Gobert: 79 games
Mitchell: 79 games
Paschall: 72 games (41 with major minutes)

We probably stagger the games Ingles and Conley miss on back-to-backs, which opens up 28 games Paschall gets minutes. He will also play those games before the all-star break and end of season, so that is another 6. That gives him 34 games with major minutes. Then, you have to assume that there are some games missed with injury, Conley tends to miss a lot, so we will say 10% of the games he is slated to play he misses (so, he is down to 55 games) which opens up another 7 games of major minutes for Paschall as we shift around rotations, giving him 41, which sounds about right. I think he at least gets garbage-time minutes in every game that we win by a large margin, and plays in games where guys have foul trouble, and I will just call that 31 games for lulz.

I really like where our rotation is, I'm imagining it as:

Conley + Ingles games:
Gobert 32/Whiteside 16
Bogdanovic 28/Gay 16/Paschall 4
O'neale 24/Ingles 24
Mitchell 24/Clarkson 24
Conley 30/Mitchell 10/Butler 8

Conley - Ingles games:
Gobert 32/Whiteside 16
Bogdanovic 8/Gay 20/Paschall 20
O'neale 24/Bogdanovic 24
Mitchell 24/Clarkson 24
Conley 30/Mitchell 10/Butler 8

Ingles - Conley games:
Gobert 32/Whiteside 16
Bogdanovic 16/Gay 20/Paschall 12
Ingles 24/O'neale 10/Bogdanovic 14
Clarkson 30/Mitchell 4/O'neale 14
Mitchell 30/Butler 10/Forrest 8

Great in-depth analysis!