Tanking- an honest discussion

[SoCalJazzFan]

How often has tanking worked for teams, and how often has it not?

For those teams for which it has arguably worked out, how long has it taken and what were the results?

Let's focus on the past decade or so.

[SoCalJazzFan]

I'll start with the 76ers and the well-known Hinkie " The Process".

How long did it take? 9 years (6 top 11 draft picks over that time) (edit: Simmons 1st overall pick, Fultz 1st, Okafur 3rd, Embiid 3rd- what are odds of getting 4 top 3 picks over that time frame?)

Result= Essentially Embiid and Simmons (or now Harden).
Playoff results=
2022- 2nd round
2021- 2nd round
2020- 1st round
2019- 2nd round
2018- 2nd round

[SoCalJazzFan]

While it seems that the Knicks have been tanking for as long as memory serves, they were outright doing it intentionally in the 2014/15 season. The team ended up winning a couple of games at the end of the season, which infurioted the fans and resulted in them getting the #4 pick. The top 4 picks that year?
1. Kat
2. D'Lo
3. Okafur
4. Porzingis

Knicks have only been to the playoffs once since that draft, and without Porzingis. The top 3 really haven't helped their teams have much playoff success either.

[D Rog]

If you only look back 10 years I think only 3 teams intentionally tanked (OKC, Houston and Philly). Philly had several top 10 picks that just didn't pan out. It is too early to comment on Houston and OKC.

Tanking takes too long and requires good drafting which also requires some luck. By the time a team develops a player into a top 10 or top 20 player they demand a trade to a large market, marquise franchise with other good players if they have not yet been to the finals. I can't remember this being as big an issue in the 90s but it certainly is an issue now.

Unless the NBA owners re-gain control over these Prima-Donna players demanding trades or leaving in free agency it doesn't matter if you tank or if you are a regular playoff team. Very few teams win the title. Boston and the Lakers have about 50% of all championships in league history. in the last 40 years I believe only 3 or 4 less desirable markets or small market teams have won a title.

Milwaukee won 1 (Giannis),
Cleveland won 1 (Lebron),
Toronto won 1 (Kawhi)
San Antonio won 5 (Duncan / Robinson / Ginobli / Parker)

I apologize for getting a little off subject. I did state that I think tanking takes too long and I believe a large part of that problem is good players demanding to be traded and the league pacifying them. The one thing I find interesting we can all name players that forced their way out of a smaller market or less desirable market. Kobe forced his way out of Charlotte before he put on the jersey. Lebron waited until free agency. AD out of New Orleans. This list goes on Chris Paul out of New Orleans, Kawhi Leonard out of San Antonio, Paul George out of Indiana, Carmello Anthony out of Denver. What foreign players in the last 20 years have demanded a trade? I can't think of one. Can you name a foreign player in the NBA that has demanded a trade? There are some good players that stuck with their teams.

https://hoopshype.com/lists/75-greatest-international-players-ever-the-hoopshype-list/

Hope the league re-gains some control to level the playing field

[bkohler]

I think there’s tanking and then there’s TANKING, often tanking is a one to two year process while TANKING that is done by a competent organization and lasts more than 4 years is really rare.

Most of the time it’s after a superstar leaves or team ages out.

Examples:

NOP after the Chris Paul trade (Anthony Davis)
CLE after Lebron left (Kyrie, Wiggins, Bennet, Thompson, Waiters)
Milwaukee after Bogut was traded (Jabari Parker)
Memphis with Conley/Gasol (Morant)
NOP with AD (Zion)
BOS with their big 3 (Brown/Tatum)
LAL after Kobe (Ball, Ingram)
Min after Kevin love trade (Towns)
Dallas after (kinda) dirk (Luka)

[SoCalJazzFan]

People probably forget that the Suns went a tanking for a bit recently.

After a bad year in 2012/13 that netted them #4 Alex Len in the draft, they canned Gentry and hired Hornacek. Hornacek had a turbulant two years, where they were an improved, but middling team. This netted them TJ Warren #14 and Devin Booker #13 (Jazz passed on Booker much to the chagrin of many on this board).

Then, the Suns went full on tank after canning Horny. This was the result over 5 years:
2015/16- #4 Bender
2016/17- #4 Josh Jackson
2017/18- #1 Ayton
2018/19- #6 Jarrett Culver (smartly traded to the TWolves for #11 (Cam Johnson) and Saric)
2019/20- #10 Jalen Smith

While the Suns improved somewhat in the final year of the tank, it wasn't until they traded their 2022 first round pick in Nov of 2020 to OKC for CP3 that they began to turn it around, going to the finals in 2021 and losing the 7th game in the 2nd round this past year.

While they have been named the presumptive winner of the KD sweepstakes, this was due more so to them having CP3 and Booker and their coach than the results of the tanking. In fact, they announced that they were going to not re-sign Ayton (their best top 10 pick over 5 years) before the KD announcement.

[ForeverRDjazz]

Tim Duncan......Spurs made it pay off pretty nice.

[WinterSoldier]

Tanking is the only avenue for a team like the Jazz to get elite talent. They have never gotten a superstar free agent, and they have never traded for one. They can do draft trades like for Mitchell and Gobert but it still leads back to draft as the only means they get real talent.

[SoCalJazzFan]

If you only look back 10 years I think only 3 teams intentionally tanked (OKC, Houston and Philly). Philly had several top 10 picks that just didn't pan out. It is too early to comment on Houston and OKC.

Tanking takes too long and requires good drafting which also requires some luck. By the time a team develops a player into a top 10 or top 20 player they demand a trade to a large market, marquise franchise with other good players if they have not yet been to the finals. I can't remember this being as big an issue in the 90s but it certainly is an issue now.

Unless the NBA owners re-gain control over these Prima-Donna players demanding trades or leaving in free agency it doesn't matter if you tank or if you are a regular playoff team. Very few teams win the title. Boston and the Lakers have about 50% of all championships in league history. in the last 40 years I believe only 3 or 4 less desirable markets or small market teams have won a title.

Milwaukee won 1 (Giannis),
Cleveland won 1 (Lebron),
Toronto won 1 (Kawhi)
San Antonio won 5 (Duncan / Robinson / Ginobli / Parker)

I apologize for getting a little off subject. I did state that I think tanking takes too long and I believe a large part of that problem is good players demanding to be traded and the league pacifying them. The one thing I find interesting we can all name players that forced their way out of a smaller market or less desirable market. Kobe forced his way out of Charlotte before he put on the jersey. Lebron waited until free agency. AD out of New Orleans. This list goes on Chris Paul out of New Orleans, Kawhi Leonard out of San Antonio, Paul George out of Indiana, Carmello Anthony out of Denver. What foreign players in the last 20 years have demanded a trade? I can't think of one. Can you name a foreign player in the NBA that has demanded a trade? There are some good players that stuck with their teams.

https://hoopshype.com/lists/75-greatest-international-players-ever-the-hoopshype-list/

Hope the league re-gains some control to level the playing field

The NBA could certainly use some NFL rules. If Aaron Rodgers had been in the NBA last year going to the media and demanding a trade he absolutely would have been traded. Instead, the Packers said no, we’re not only not going to trade you, we’re not going to pay you if you don’t come to work. The result? Rodgers showed up for work, a 13-4 season with playoff appearance and Rodgers the MVP.

[SoCalJazzFan]

Tim Duncan......Spurs made it pay off pretty nice.

You have to wonder if this was the genesis of tanking. However, not every team has one of the best players in the league (Admiral) who is injured for the entire year, gets the worst record (this might have started the lottery) and afterwards had two of the best players in the league. Lightening in a bottle stuff.

[SoCalJazzFan]

Tanking is the only avenue for a team like the Jazz to get elite talent. They have never gotten a superstar free agent, and they have never traded for one. They can do draft trades like for Mitchell and Gobert but it still leads back to draft as the only means they get real talent.

The interesting thing is that the Jazz haven’t really ever gone full tank. When they lost Boozer, they went out and traded for Al Jefferson. When they traded away DWill, they kept Big Al (probably a mistake) and got a decent player in Devin Harris and newly drafted #2 Derrick Favors, and a pick that netted them #3 Enes Kanter /Freedom. Gordon Hayward #9 came from a pick acquired in a trade with the Suns several years before. Only Exum #5 came from a really bad season where they only won 25 games, but they weren’t tanking, or successfully tanking, before or after that.

It is worth noting that those four top 10 drafted players had limited success.

The Jazz’ best players have been from later picks or trade ups in the draft, and not a result of tanking.
Stockton #13
Malone #16
Deron williams trading several picks to move up and get him (teams aren’t able to do that very often now)
Mitchell #13
Gobert #27

I guess this proves the point that the Jazz get their best players from the draft, but not as a result of tanking for high draft picks.

[WinterSoldier]

Tanking is the only avenue for a team like the Jazz to get elite talent. They have never gotten a superstar free agent, and they have never traded for one. They can do draft trades like for Mitchell and Gobert but it still leads back to draft as the only means they get real talent.

The interesting thing is that the Jazz haven’t really ever gone full tank. When they lost Boozer, they went out and traded for Al Jefferson. When they traded away DWill, they kept Big Al (probably a mistake) and got a decent player in Devin Harris and newly drafted #2 Derrick Favors, and a pick that netted them #3 Enes Kanter /Freedom. Gordon Hayward #9 came from a pick acquired in a trade with the Suns several years before. Only Exum #5 came from a really bad season where they only won 25 games, but they weren’t tanking, or successfully tanking, before or after that.

It is worth noting that those four top 10 drafted players had limited success.

The Jazz’ best players have been from later picks or trade ups in the draft, and not a result of tanking.
Stockton #13
Malone #16
Deron williams trading several picks to move up and get him (teams aren’t able to do that very often now)
Mitchell #13
Gobert #27

I guess this proves the point that the Jazz get their best players from the draft, but not as a result of tanking for high draft picks.

You could easily argue the reason the Jazz haven't gotten truly elite talent is because they haven't tanked.

Top five picks in the last 20 something years
Deron Williams #3 great pick.
#3 Enes Kanter in what was arguably one of the worst drafts ever, Kawhi went #15, Klay went #11. No one in the top 10 was that good.
Exum's draft was thought to be good but ended up terrible.

The Jazz are really good at finding players who slip through the cracks, If they actually truly tanked for 3 or 4 years and got some elite talent they could fill the gaps with really good pieces and build a special team that could win multiple championships.

[SoCalJazzFan]

You could easily argue the reason the Jazz haven't gotten truly elite talent is because they haven't tanked.

Top five picks in the last 20 something years
Deron Williams #3 great pick.
#3 Enes Kanter in what was arguably one of the worst drafts ever, Kawhi went #15, Klay went #11. No one in the top 10 was that good.
Exum's draft was thought to be good but ended up terrible.

The Jazz are really good at finding players who slip through the cracks, If they actually truly tanked for 3 or 4 years and got some elite talent they could fill the gaps with really good pieces and build a special team that could win multiple championships.

For all of the really good picks the Jazz have made, they have passed over just as many great players (Booker and Giannis off the top of my head), and have, like the rest of the league, whiffed on many, many picks. As I mentioned, their three top 5 pick players (Exum, Favors, Kanter) even with Gordon Hayward didn't get them to the Finals or anywhere close to it. Also, the guys who were supposedly "so good at finding talent" in the past are no longer with the Jazz. If we are completely honest, the draft is a bit of a crap shoot.

[FJS]

Draft is luck.

We have had Enes, Exum and Williams in top 5 in those last years and only Deron was good...
Then we had a good year in 2017 losing in the 2nd round, we lost Hayward, Hill and we finished with Mitchell... and we finished in the 2nd round too.

Warriors tanked sitting Curry. They had Wiseman and... he did not play when they were champs this season.
We drafted Stockton being in the playoffs
We drafted Malone being in the Playoffs.

[bkohler]

If we are completely honest, the draft is a bit of a crap shoot.

Definitely true, however, I think that the point of tanking is the higher up the draft you move the more likely you are to get a hit. If you look at the projected expected value for each draft pick the top 5 picks have a WAY higher probability of becoming stars than any other draft pick. Source: https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

That's really the goal is to try and move the odds in your favor.

[jrj202]

Draft is luck.

We have had Enes, Exum and Williams in top 5 in those last years and only Deron was good...
Then we had a good year in 2017 losing in the 2nd round, we lost Hayward, Hill and we finished with Mitchell... and we finished in the 2nd round too.

Warriors tanked sitting Curry. They had Wiseman and... he did not play when they were champs this season.
We drafted Stockton being in the playoffs
We drafted Malone being in the Playoffs.

Yeah people act like if you tank you're guaranteed to get a good player. You can bottom out and end up with someone like Morant or Doncic but you can also just as easily end up with Kanter or Exum.

[WinterSoldier]

Draft is luck.

We have had Enes, Exum and Williams in top 5 in those last years and only Deron was good...
Then we had a good year in 2017 losing in the 2nd round, we lost Hayward, Hill and we finished with Mitchell... and we finished in the 2nd round too.

Warriors tanked sitting Curry. They had Wiseman and... he did not play when they were champs this season.
We drafted Stockton being in the playoffs
We drafted Malone being in the Playoffs.

Yeah people act like if you tank you're guaranteed to get a good player. You can bottom out and end up with someone like Morant or Doncic but you can also just as easily end up with Kanter or Exum.

Yes and you'll statistically almost always end up with a Exum or Kanter post lottery and almost never find a Morant of Doncic past the lottery. Partially because of the year in college rule teams are better at drafting and talent doesn't fall in the draft nearly as much as it used to.

[jrj202]

Yes and you'll statistically almost always end up with a Exum or Kanter post lottery and almost never find a Morant of Doncic past the lottery. Partially because of the year in college rule teams are better at drafting and talent doesn't fall in the draft nearly as much as it used to.

Statistically most draft picks don't work out, I just don't think tanking is best for us ATM when we have the assets to quickly retool the roster.

[WinterSoldier]

Yes and you'll statistically almost always end up with a Exum or Kanter post lottery and almost never find a Morant of Doncic past the lottery. Partially because of the year in college rule teams are better at drafting and talent doesn't fall in the draft nearly as much as it used to.

Statistically most draft picks don't work out, I just don't think tanking is best for us ATM when we have the assets to quickly retool the roster.

A retool won't get the get a team like the Jazz enough talent to win. They already tried this too many times with almost exactly the same result a first round playoff exit, one time it lead to conference finals and one time the second round. 20+ years of retooling has proved not to work at all for the Jazz.

[FJS]

Yes and you'll statistically almost always end up with a Exum or Kanter post lottery and almost never find a Morant of Doncic past the lottery. Partially because of the year in college rule teams are better at drafting and talent doesn't fall in the draft nearly as much as it used to.

Statistically most draft picks don't work out, I just don't think tanking is best for us ATM when we have the assets to quickly retool the roster.

A retool won't get the get a team like the Jazz enough talent to win. They already tried this too many times with almost exactly the same result a first round playoff exit, one time it lead to conference finals and one time the second round. 20+ years of retooling has proved not to work at all for the Jazz.

We have tried different ways.
The Deron, Boozer, AK, Okur team was a nice team. They played WCF (with a little bit of luck) and they gave trouble to the Bryant-Gasol-Odom lakers.
Boozer leaving, Deron fiasco ended that era (we had a rookie future all-star in Hayward in this team) and Millsap who was allstar several years but we gave up on him.
Then we had some top 5 draft picks next years. Favors (via Deron) #3, Kanter 3#, EXum #5. Only Favors was serviciable... but he was even all-star.
Our next all-star were found where nobody expected in Gobert and Mitchell... Once again, maybe if Hayward stayed this team would have been different.

So, you have 2 ways to find this talent with top picks and without, and there's no solution.