Draft Odds / Pick Watch

[SoCalJazzFan]

I think that what I wrote on another game thread perhaps deserves it own thread to disspel misconceptions.

Here is a link that shows the odds of teams getting draft picks in 2023 based on their overall record (worst record on top of list).

www.tankathon.com/pick_odds (perhaps someone with more time or skill could add in the image below for easy reference)

[SoCalJazzFan]

If you have the worst record, you end up with only a 14% chance of the #1 pick, but you have a 100% chance of a top 5 pick.
2nd worst record, 14% and 100% chance of top 6 pick, and 80% chance of top 5 pick.
3rd worst record, 14% and 100% chance of top 7 pick, 93% chance of top 6 pick.
4th worst record, a 12.5% chance of #1, 100% chance of top 8 and over 80% chance of top 6 pick.

Moreover, the worst 3 teams have more than 2x the chance of getting the top overall #1 pick as the worst 6-9 teams, and over a 7x chance compared to the worst 10-12 teams. Let that sink in.

If you are tanking, you want to be in the bottom 3, and really, really need to be in the bottom 5 to realistically improve your chances to move up in the draft.

If #6- odds are you'll end up with #7 or #8 pick
If #7- odds are #8 pick
If #8- odds are #8 or #9
If #9- odds are #9 or #10
If #10- overwhelming odds #10 or #11
If #11- overwhelming odds #11
If #12- overwheliming odds #12
If #13- nearly certain #13
If #14- nearly certain #14

[SoCalJazzFan]

Also, for consideration, the 3 worst teams have a 12% better chance of getting the #1 pick than the 4th worst team, and a 33% better chance than the 5th worst team. It is then that the odds drop off a cliff with a better than 2X chance vs the #6-#9 teams and a roughly 6.5X chance than the #10-#12 teams.

Don't half ass the job, Ainge.

[vryadli]

You shouldn't stop on that but at least to compare that chances to get a great player outside top - taking in account that though chances per one place are smaller, but the number of places outside top is bigger. In physics this concept is called "phase space": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_space#Thermodynamics_and_statistical_mechanics.

Like Antecoumpo and Malone - n13, Kahwi - 15... even Curry was

Amnd how many n1 pick really brought in the Ring?

2007 - Oden :: considered as super..
2008 - Rose
2009 - Griffin
2010 - Wall
2011 - Irving
2012 - Davis -considered and proved as super... but no chances for The Ring for drafters.
2013 - Bennet ??!!
2014 - Wiggins ??!!
2015 - KAT not bad - and so what's about The Ring?
2016 - Simmons... ??!!
2017 - Fultz ??!!
2018 - Ayton ??!!
2019 - Zion :: considered as super.. let's wait, but doesn't look like The Ringer now.
2020 - Edwards

Looking from the other side - only players who actually show "bring The Ring" impact were to the team of draft LeBron, Greek and (arguably) Curry. And only Greek's case is clear case of The Path of the Control of The Fate.

By the way it looks for me that for the last 15 years n1 pick was giving rather funny results.

[Rauxcee]

Thanks for that info. For those that beat the "only 14% odds" drum, I would like to get the odds on being able to use our assets to trade for a franchise player. It's a mystery player right now, as there is no player currently attainable that will change the direction of this team by trading future draft picks.

And if that player becomes available, who is to say the Jazz would even have a better package to offer over OKC, Houston, and the Pelicans?

14% seems like much better odds than waiting for a trade that doesnt even exist right now to happen with our assets. The top 2 players in next years draft do exist. I'll take those chances over the unknown everytime.

[vryadli]

Thanks for that info. For those that beat the "only 14% odds" drum, I would like to get the odds on being able to use our assets to trade for a franchise player. It's a mystery player right now, as there is no player currently attainable that will change the direction of this team by trading future draft picks.

And if that player becomes available, who is to say the Jazz would even have a better package to offer over OKC, Houston, and the Pelicans?

14% seems like much better odds than waiting for a trade that doesnt even exist right now to happen with our assets. The top 2 players in next years draft do exist. I'll take those chances over the unknown everytime.

You forgot to multiply this 14% for t
1) the chance to "him" to be "him" and not just other Oden
2) to stay on small market loosing team for 5-10 years
3) front office of loosing small market team to build a decent team around that unicorn.

Basically for all history of NBA there is one "Greek" case, one "Pop" case and one "Detroit" case. All other is big market, star allianses and huge money cases which are absolutely inapplicable for Utah.

[Inigo Montoya]

I edited the title of this thread, and we can use it for watching the Jazz and Wolves picks.

Right now the Jazz are 20-22. We are 3 losses away from having a top 5 pick. If the Lakers manage to overtake the 10th seed, we could end up with two lottery picks.

[AingesBurner]

I edited the title of this thread, and we can use it for watching the Jazz and Wolves picks.

Right now the Jazz are 20-22. We are 3 losses away from having a top 5 pick. If the Lakers manage to overtake the 10th seed, we could end up with two lottery picks.

I wonder if we would make both picks, consolidate picks for a higher pick, or use one in a trade for a #1.

[Inigo Montoya]

I wonder if we would make both picks, consolidate picks for a higher pick, or use one in a trade for a #1.

I don't think any team would trade the #1 pick this year.

[AingesBurner]

I wonder if we would make both picks, consolidate picks for a higher pick, or use one in a trade for a #1.

I don't think any team would trade the #1 pick this year.

I mean player, not the #1 pick; like if Trae Young becomes available or if Presti is extremely drunk because he somehow got the #1 pick and trades us Shai

[Crunch 99]

I think that what I wrote on another game thread perhaps deserves it own thread to disspel misconceptions.

Here is a link that shows the odds of teams getting draft picks in 2023 based on their overall record (worst record on top of list).

www.tankathon.com/pick_odds (perhaps someone with more time or skill could add in the image below for easy reference)

Seems to me the Jazz have a strong possibility of finishing with the 8th pick or better. The Lakers, Bulls and Thunder, all 6-4 over last ten games, have good probability of finishing season with more wins. Wizards and Raptors may well finish with more wins as well, but Beale is missing games with hamstring issues and VanVleet is suffering with career low shooting percentages.

Hypothetically speaking, if the Jazz were to finish 7th and the Wolves finish 8th in draft rankings, the Jazz' chances for various picks in the lottery would be the sum of the two teams' probabilities, so the Jazz would have a 7.5 + 6.0, or 13.5%, chance at top pick. Wolves might be playing their way out of the lottery though; we'll see.

Top ten picks panning out are far from a sure thing, but Ainge has been as good a draft talent evaluator as anyone.

[SoCalJazzFan]

If the Jazz end up with the 8th-10th pick, it will pretty much be a fail, IMO. That means that we weren't good enough to be competitive or even in the playoffs, yet too good to have a chance at a top pick. In other words, a half as*** tank/rebuild effort- and I have been a fan of Ainge.

[Crunch 99]

I named some teams in my post above that might pass by us for more wins, but I failed to notice two teams that were above us that are losing more than we are --- the Suns and Blazers. The Suns have an injury excuse. They played last night's game with only 1/5 of their healthy starting lineup. The Blazers are losing with no excuse. They have too much talent to continue to perform this poorly imho.

[TNJazz]

I read that the Suns have the worst record in the league since Dec 1. That is a bit shocking considering the really bad teams in the league.

[Inigo Montoya]

I'll just leave this here, for your reference.


Article: Here's where NBA stars are most likely to be drafted
Source: https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/6/25/5831860/nba-draft-picks-2014-superstars-chart


Source: https://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2015/05/18/nba-draft-lottery-odds-infographic



Source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-to-sign-an-nba-player-to-the-max/




Source: https://medium.com/the-knicks-wall/making-sense-of-a-potential-knicks-blazers-trade-centered-around-picks-78def00660a3


Article: What Research Says about NBA Draft Pick Value, Part 2
Source: https://tonyelhabr.github.io/nba-decision_analysis/what-research-says-about-nba-draft-pick-value-part-2.html

[Hoops Addict]

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/cam-whitmore/

[SoCalJazzFan]

https://www.si.com/nba/jazz/.amp/news/jazz-tanking-three-reasons

I don't see the Jazz even getting a top 10 pick, unless the TWolves get even worse than they have been. I think that the tank is off (really never started due to the circumstances of who we got in the DM and RG trades and Hardy being a good coach) and that the Jazz are going to be buyers, instead of sellers, between now and the trade deadline.

[SoCalJazzFan]

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/cam-whitmore/

I have my eye on this guy as Conley's replacement.
https://www.nbadraft.net/players/cason-wallace/

[Crunch 99]

https://www.si.com/nba/jazz/.amp/news/jazz-tanking-three-reasons

I don't see the Jazz even getting a top 10 pick, unless the TWolves get even worse than they have been. I think that the tank is off (really never started due to the circumstances of who we got in the DM and RG trades and Hardy being a good coach) and that the Jazz are going to be buyers, instead of sellers, between now and the trade deadline.

Yes, I posted not too long ago there was some chance for a 7 and 8 pick out of Wolves and Jazz, but with the emergence of Kessler, with both Markkanen and Clarkson getting more productive in fourth quarters, with an easier schedule going forward and with the Wolves going 7-3 over last ten games, the hope to get a high draft pick has been diminishing.

I am excited to see what Trader Ainge does at the trade deadline.

Jazz Expected To Listen To Trade Offers For Almost Entire Roster
https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/270091/Jazz-Expected-To-Listen-To-Trade-Offers-For-Almost-Entire-Roster

[Hoops Addict]

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/cam-whitmore/

I have my eye on this guy as Conley's replacement.
https://www.nbadraft.net/players/cason-wallace/

heck yes. ( Utah Speak) Cason Wallace gets a 9 for size, strength and defense. A big point guard would be great.