Game 45: Utah Jazz (21-23) vs Orlando Magic (16-26)

Post #1 » by **Inigo Montoya** » Fri Jan 13, 2023 3:59 pm

A good opportunity to gain some ground for a high pick. Hoping for a quality loss.

FranchisePlayer · Post #2 » by **FranchisePlayer** » Fri Jan 13, 2023 6:57 pm

In my view a quality chance to beat the hell out of the opponent and feel good about your team.

I reckon The Finnisher is puttin' on a show although Banchero could outperform him.

Post #3 » by **Inigo Montoya** » Fri Jan 13, 2023 7:13 pm

FranchisePlayer wrote:In my view a quality chance to beat the hell out of the opponent and feel good about your team.

I reckon The Finnisher is puttin' on a show although Banchero could outperform him.

Eh. If that was all that matters we could have kept Gobert and Mitchell and roll with that roster for the next 5 years because that team won a lot of regular season games. Personally, I don't feel good about a team that has no chance to go anywhere in the playoffs, it makes the regular season meaningless and makes me lose interest. If we are serious about building a championship team, we can't skip the painful part and magically become contenders, it almost never happens (I really can't think of an example).

Almost the entire roster we have is temporary, and it's obvious this team isn't going anywhere or that it has a shot at contending. Hell, it may not even make the play-in. We found some cornerstones in Markkanen and Kessler. The rest are not likely to not be here in 2-3 years. I'm tired of beating teams in the regular season and get ousted early in the playoffs, often in humiliating fashion. We are in a position to have a pretty high draft pick in a very strong draft. I'll take that over trying to make the playoffs and get bounced in the first round, again. If that was good enough, we wouldn't have broken up the previous roster.

FranchisePlayer · Post #4 » by **FranchisePlayer** » Fri Jan 13, 2023 7:33 pm

Inigo Montoya wrote:
FranchisePlayer wrote:In my view a quality chance to beat the hell out of the opponent and feel good about your team.

I reckon The Finnisher is puttin' on a show although Banchero could outperform him.

Eh. If that was all that matters we could have kept Gobert and Mitchell and roll with that roster for the next 5 years because that team won a lot of regular season games. Personally, I don't feel good about a team has no chance to go anywhere in the playoffs, it makes the regular season meaningless and makes me lose interest. If we are serious about building a championship team, we can't skip the painful part and magically become contenders, it almost never happens (I really can't think of an example).

Almost the entire roster we have is temporary, and it's obvious this team isn't going anywhere or that it has a shot at contending. Hell, it may not even make the play-in. We found some cornerstones in Markkanen and Kessler. The rest are not likely to not be here in 2-3 years. I'm tired of beating teams in the regular season and get ousted early in the playoffs, often in humiliating fashion. We are in a position to have a pretty high draft pick in a very strong draft. I'll take that over trying to make the playoffs and get bounced in the first round, again. If that was good enough, we wouldn't have broken up the previous roster.

I understand and don't necessarily disagree with the points you made. Here comes the but:

I don't support losing on purpose in professional sports to meet any purpose. I support it and even do it when I want my 6 year old not to get upset when we take a round of chess or something. But in pro sports... never. IMO losing is for losers and if you do it on purpose you're a complete loser.

It's been crystal clear for a couple of months we disagree on this subject and neither one is going to change his mind so we might as well skip going this back and forth. Waste of time, really. Better just to learn and try to deal with the opinions that differ from yours.

red4hf · Post #5 » by **red4hf** » Sat Jan 14, 2023 2:59 am

Kessler is a beast!!

Cappy_Smurf · Post #6 » by **Cappy_Smurf** » Sat Jan 14, 2023 5:34 am

Inigo Montoya wrote: If we are serious about building a championship team, we can't skip the painful part and magically become contenders, it almost never happens (I really can't think of an example).

This is being overstated IMO.

If Utah had lost Gobert and Mitchell in FA for nothing like they did with Jefferson/Millsap, then I would 100% agree.

Instead, they have 2 significant pieces and a crap ton of assets to build with. They have enough assets to trade for 2 all-star level players if they wanted to. Really hard to make claims about a limited ceiling when they have the ability to add multiple stars.

The other side of that coin is the 14% chance at a 1st overall pick being the very best they could do with an outright tank. If people think Utah's only chance is to tank for a star, they should prepare for 10 years at the bottom of the league, because the odds aren't with us even if we did bottom out.

There are also other angles to this, such as trying to make sure Lauri actually wants to stick around. He's finally having a break out year after a rough start to his career. I don't think he'd be too happy to find out his first all-star level season was going to the first of many years of losing all the time. Not only that, but in order for him to make the all-star team, it helps out if Utah is a decent team. Every year there are players who get snubbed, and if they are choosing between 2 guys that both deserve it, team record can come into play.

Having said all that, I think the ideal season would be for Lauri to make all-star and than have the jazz bottom out the rest of the year. If that happens, the difference between percentages of getting a top pick will be minimal.

Finally, if you look around the league, there are plenty of teams that have been a the top of the league the last few years who's best player was not taken at the top of the draft. Denver, Clips, Suns, Bucks just off the top of my head.

Post #7 » by **Inigo Montoya** » Sat Jan 14, 2023 10:50 am

Sorry in advance for the long post.

Cappy_Smurf wrote:If Utah had lost Gobert and Mitchell in FA for nothing like they did with Jefferson/Millsap, then I would 100% agree.

Instead, they have 2 significant pieces and a crap ton of assets to build with. They have enough assets to trade for 2 all-star level players if they wanted to. Really hard to make claims about a limited ceiling when they have the ability to add multiple stars.

My argument about a ceiling is for this season, based on the current roster. I think we can both agree that as presently constructed, we are not contending this season and we might not even make the playoffs. Yes, we have assets and hopefully we'll be able to consolidate for a star but I don't think it's likely it happens this season. As things stand, I'd much rather get a high lottery pick in a strong draft than fight for the right to be bounced in the first round, if we even get there. I also expanded on this point here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=101986342#p101986342

Cappy_Smurf wrote:The other side of that coin is the 14% chance at a 1st overall pick being the very best they could do with an outright tank. If people think Utah's only chance is to tank for a star, they should prepare for 10 years at the bottom of the league, because the odds aren't with us even if we did bottom out.

It's 14% for the top pick but 27% for a top-3 pick. Scoot Henderson would be a #1 pick in almost any other year, so already the chance for a really good player doubles.

As I said in other threads, I'm not advocating for years of tanking. I'm advocating for tanking this season given the unique circumstances and opportunities presented. This draft has essentially two #1 picks (VM and Henderson, one of them is considered a generational talent and the best prospect ever) and is considered a strong draft. We blew up our team and headed to a rebuild at the perfect time. We were widely expected to suck given our roster and a rookie head coach (props to all of them for wildly exceeding expectations). If ever was a time to do it, it is now.

Cappy_Smurf wrote:There are also other angles to this, such as trying to make sure Lauri actually wants to stick around. He's finally having a break out year after a rough start to his career. I don't think he'd be too happy to find out his first all-star level season was going to the first of many years of losing all the time. Not only that, but in order for him to make the all-star team, it helps out if Utah is a decent team. Every year there are players who get snubbed, and if they are choosing between 2 guys that both deserve it, team record can come into play.

Having said all that, I think the ideal season would be for Lauri to make all-star and than have the jazz bottom out the rest of the year. If that happens, the difference between percentages of getting a top pick will be minimal.

It's a fair point about Lauri, but I would think that he would be very happy to stick around with a team that finally unlocked his potential and made him an allstar (I hope) after years of being considered a disappointment. He's now in the perfect situation with a coach and a system that are perfect for him. And again, I'm not arguing we should tank every season, only this one. Honestly, I think he's in the perfect situation and wouldn't be quick to want to leave.

Cappy_Smurf wrote:Finally, if you look around the league, there are plenty of teams that have been a the top of the league the last few years who's best player was not taken at the top of the draft. Denver, Clips, Suns, Bucks just off the top of my head.

That's true, but these are the exceptions and not the rule. It is much harder to find this level of players the further you go down the draft. The idea of getting the highest pick possible is to have as many choices as possible, instead of being dependent on other teams screwing up. Here is how important it is to get as high of a pick as possible:

Spoiler:

I think this data lays out very clearly why it is important to get the highest pick possible instead of hoping to luck out in the lower part of the draft. It is hard enough to hit a home-run with a top #3 pick, it is so much harder to hit a home-run the further down you go.

Post #8 » by **Inigo Montoya** » Sat Jan 14, 2023 11:14 am

The game was entertaining, if a bit messy. The Jazz had a lot of turnovers (24) and were out of sync for a lot of the time.

Markkanen continues to impress. 17-21 from the line. He has had a lot of games with 10+ free throw attempts. Those are superstar numbers, and one of the marks of a superstar is being able to produce even when his offense isn't going that well. Markkanen's ability to draw fouls pretty much ensures he'll finish (no pun intended) games with 20+ points. He's awesome.

Kessler was also great. 7 blocks in 27 minutes. He's currently 3rd in the league overall for total blocks with 83 (4th in the league by average, with 2.0 per game). Ahead of him are Brook Lopez with 103 and Nic Claxton with 100. Lopez plays 30 minutes per game. Claxton plays 28. Kessler plays 19.

Sexton was pretty good and had some important buckets in the final stretch.

As for the Magic, Suggs seems to be falling out of favor over there. He only played 14 minutes of the bench.

I was honestly more impressed by Franz Wagner than I was by Banchero.

Interesting thought - would Jazz fans be willing to trade for Isaac and Suggs as reclamation projects, and what would they be willing to give up?

FranchisePlayer · Post #9 » by **FranchisePlayer** » Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:16 pm

They're starting to respect Markkanen. The refs I mean.

21 FT's. What would be the Jazz record? He could clinch that one, too.