What are the odds we are among the 3 worst teams next year?

Hoops Addict · Post #1 » by **Hoops Addict** » Sun Mar 24, 2024 4:02 am

Trading Olynyk and Ochi away made the Jazz a lot worse. The team is terrible. Could we be the 3rd worse next year?

I do not mind if we are in the top 5 picks in the draft the next 2 years,

I guess there is a 25% chance the Jazz are in the bottom 3 next year,

Hugi Mancura · Post #2 » by **Hugi Mancura** » Sun Mar 24, 2024 9:31 am

Utah will be very bad. I think Utah will play with current roster, add 3 rookies and couple veterans, which they try to trade during season. Utah will win about 20 games next year, even with Markkanen. But that would mean they would be around bottom 5 this year. Will next year have as many bad teams as this year? Probably couple of those bottom feeders want to be better, but still that would mean 5 or so teams will be bad. So Utah have a good change to be bottom 3, but I do think teams like Washington, Toronto and Portland will be lousier. Probably not bottom 3, but bottom 5 is almost locked.

Post #3 » by **Inigo Montoya** » Sun Mar 24, 2024 10:05 am

If they want to be that bad they'll need to either trade Markkanen or not play him.

Hugi Mancura · Post #4 » by **Hugi Mancura** » Sun Mar 24, 2024 10:26 am

Not sure is that necessary to trade Markkanen. Utah have been worst team in NBA after the trade deadline. Adding 2-3 rookies won't make team better. True Markkanen have been injured most of the games, so probably they wouldn't be the worst team with him. Right now Utah have two good NBA players; Sexton and Markkanen, so I think trading one of them could be enough to make sure team will be very bad next year.

Young players usually develops during summer, but so does young players from all the bad teams and there is no reason to believe Utah youths develop more than youths from other teams. So I wouldn't put too much faith on development for next year.

AGE1207 · Post #5 » by **AGE1207** » Sun Mar 24, 2024 8:30 pm

Barring injuries, I doubt very much we will be among the worst 3 teams next season.
During summer I expect we will try to “extend” Markannen and if so, he will surely have his demands, including on the team’s roster and strength. I am pretty sure this current “strategy” isn’t working for him. Once u add a really strong extra player, next to Sexton and Markannen, it becomes impossible to be among the worst teams next season.

Of course it becomes a whole different ball game if Markannen refuses to extend and starts seeking a way out. Then all bets are off…

ForeverRDjazz · Post #6 » by **ForeverRDjazz** » Fri Apr 12, 2024 4:33 pm

AGE1207 wrote:Barring injuries, I doubt very much we will be among the worst 3 teams next season.
During summer I expect we will try to “extend” Markannen and if so, he will surely have his demands, including on the team’s roster and strength. I am pretty sure this current “strategy” isn’t working for him. Once u add a really strong extra player, next to Sexton and Markannen, it becomes impossible to be among the worst teams next season.

Of course it becomes a whole different ball game if Markannen refuses to extend and starts seeking a way out. Then all bets are off…

So if Markannen gets offer for max from top 16 teams why would he resign with team in rebuild mode that very easy trade him for picks and keep rebuild? He has some control for what team he wishes to play for. Jazz might not be top 3 but they will be top 15 for worst teams next year. It's time to totally go rebuild and tried both JC and LM and get out of top 16 and get into top 3 next year.

Cappy_Smurf · Post #7 » by **Cappy_Smurf** » Sun Jun 9, 2024 2:14 am

Inigo Montoya wrote:If they want to be that bad they'll need to either trade Markkanen or not play him.

Utah finished the year with an 8% lesser chance at the #1 pick than the worst team in the league. They are clearly worse after the deadline trade.

At this point, dumping Lauri will make the team only slightly worse than where they are now. That 14% chance at the #1 pick for the worst team is being oversold.

Post #8 » by **Inigo Montoya** » Sun Jun 9, 2024 9:39 am

Cappy_Smurf wrote:
Inigo Montoya wrote:If they want to be that bad they'll need to either trade Markkanen or not play him.

Utah finished the year with an 8% lesser chance at the #1 pick than the worst team in the league. They are clearly worse after the deadline trade.

At this point, dumping Lauri will make the team only slightly worse than where they are now. That 14% chance at the #1 pick for the worst team is being oversold.

And they sat out Markkanen to do that, so what I wrote still holds--they'll need to either trade him or not play him.

I'll add that:

1. 8% is a lot.

2. Next season there will be several good players as consolation prizes even if the Jazz miss on the #1 pick so you'd still want to be as bad as possible and not finish at the 8-10 range.

Gert42 · Post #9 » by **Gert42** » Sun Jun 9, 2024 3:40 pm

If they trade Lauri, worst 3 for sure.

If they re-sign and extend Lauri and look to trade Clarkson/Collins, they will still be one of the 5-7 worst teams.

I hope they take the second route. The odds are better but not that good and we know what they have with Lauri. I also think if he goes to a team as a #2 or #3 guy, he makes that team MUCH better and we have 1RP's in the 20's again.

We're also not going to make our young players better without some talent around them.

babyjax13 · Post #10 » by **babyjax13** » Mon Jun 10, 2024 3:44 am

We are a 33-win pace team when Lauri plays and a 25-win pace team when he does not. If we get rid of ... say, two veterans for assets, I feel pretty confident we could win under 30 with him.

Post #11 » by **Inigo Montoya** » Mon Jun 10, 2024 9:55 am

babyjax13 wrote:We are a 33-win pace team when Lauri plays and a 25-win pace team when he does not. If we get rid of ... say, two veterans for assets, I feel pretty confident we could win under 30 with him.

It depends how you look at it. In both seasons the Jazz were about a .500 team until they decided to pivot and tank, which included sidelining Markkanen.

SoCalJazzFan · Post #12 » by **SoCalJazzFan** » Mon Jun 10, 2024 8:25 pm

Jazz are in control of their own pick next year, so it really depends on how much they are invested in maximizing it.

Trade John Collins and JC for ineffective players and I have a hard time seeing Markk, Sexton and the near rookies and rookies breaking 30 wins. Rest Markk and Sexton for any ailment, and you get even fewer.

Just need to be in the bottom 4 to have near equal odds of the 1st pick and high odds of staying in the top 4. Zainge can make this happen if they want, IMO, and the future of the franchise most likely depends on it.

Catchall · Post #13 » by **Catchall** » Mon Jun 17, 2024 9:17 pm

Bottom 3? We're talking Washington, Charlotte, Portland... and that assumes Detroit improves. Seems like a reach.

SoCalJazzFan · Post #14 » by **SoCalJazzFan** » Yesterday 5:28 am

Even with Markk, Sexton, and the JCs, the Jazz were bad after the trade deadline. Maybe they were gutted, but they needed Olynyk and Fontechio badly.

To put some numbers and context to the end of last season:

Markkanen played 14 games from the trade deadline to the end of the season. The Jazz went 1-13.

Sexton played in all 14 of those games.

Clarkson played in 11 of the 14 games.

John Collins played in 13 of the 14 games.

Trade away the JCs for bad contracts/picks and don't pick up anyone that would move the needle in free agency, and it would seem that the Jazz will be pretty bad. Perhaps even bottom 3-4 bad.