Is it time to give up on Taylor Hendricks ever being anything on offense?

[HadAnEffectHere]

Jaden McDaniels is one of the worst offensive starters in the NBA and averaged 26.6 PPG as a second year player during summer league.

Hendricks has the shooting and size to be a very good offensive player, but he's so bad at every other aspect of offense that it seems nearly insurmountable for him to get to an interesting level. Against hard closeouts, Hendricks can do.... nothing. Can't pass to an open man, can't dribble and score at all, can't score in the paint if a big man is there.

It feels like Hendricks will just be a guy who shoots a couple threes a game (with low volume due to how bad the rest of his offensive package is, which allows for very hard closeouts) and that's about all he can do. Maybe his ceiling is close to Aaron Wiggins at this point?

[babyjax13]

John Collins can't do anything with the ball in his hands and has still been somewhat valuable offensively. That's where I see Hendricks' ceiling on offense, but his defense should be better.

[red4hf]

I don't agree with this assessment of Hendricks........ I saw marked improvement on the offensive end in Summer League from him...... I think there's serious room for growth, if he keeps working at it......

[Inigo Montoya]

Did anyone have any expectations of Hendricks to be more than a catch and shoot guy + points from cuts, offensive boards, etc.? His calling card (to me) was always a big, athletic wing who can guard multiple positions and can shoot well from 3. It was never his game to score a lot of points and that wasn't his skill set. That's why I always thought that he was a 'safe' pick with limited upside. He'll be a decent NBA player but he'll be a role player, not a star. He's not going to average 20, and there will be nights where he'll score 5 points. His ability to score is dependent on his shot falling, and other players setting him up.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Did anyone have any expectations of Hendricks to be more than a catch and shoot guy + points from cuts, offensive boards, etc.? His calling card (to me) was always a big, athletic wing who can guard multiple positions and can shoot well from 3. It was never his game to score a lot of points and that wasn't his skill set. That's why I always thought that he was a 'safe' pick with limited upside. He'll be a decent NBA player but he'll be a role player, not a star. He's not going to average 20, and there will be nights where he'll score 5 points. His ability to score is dependent on his shot falling, and other players setting him up.

Again, Jaden McDaniels is about as bad as you can be offensively while still being a viable starter at the wing and McDaniels averaged 26 PPG in summer league.

Hendricks cannot get off many threes simply because he can't do anything against closeouts.

You have to (as a perimeter player) be able to dribble well enough in the NBA to punish fly-bys and if you can dribble that well, you can destroy people in summer league and... that didn't happen at all.

It feels like the ceiling for Hendricks has gone from Jaden McDaniels to some guy a lot worse than McDaniels... And that's a bench player...

He's starting to just feel like a future 9th man who isn't very relevant to the team's success or failure.

[bkohler]

A bit quick on this type of judgment, IMO.

If you look at Hendricks per 36 numbers vs. Jaden McDaniels, he averaged the same amount of points on better percentages (also had nearly identical advanced stats) during the regular season last year, and that was Hendricks's first year vs. Jaden's 4th. I think these stats matter far more than any summer league stats. Assuming that Hendricks will never be better than Jaden seems a bit premature as, stat-wise, he is already as impactful/if not better.

Let's look at a few other comparisons to help give us a bit more faith in his potential, perhaps:


Brandon Miller: Taylor put up better-advanced numbers on both defense and offense(!). He (Miller) averaged six more points a game... but did it taking six more shots!

Paul George: Taylor averaged one less point on one less shot and shot better from each area (3s,2s, FT) compared to Paul as a rookie

Jaylen Brown: Same story as Paul George, except Taylor also was more impactful on defense and offense according to most advanced stats)

Pascal Siakam: He didn't surpass Taylor's counting stats (per 36 mins) until his 3rd year as a 24-year-old!

Jabari Smith Jr: Taylor averaged two points less on three shots less while shooting better percentages and having better advanced stats across the board.

Jerami Grant: Didn't exceed Taylors' numbers (in any variety) from last year until he was 23 and in his fourth year.

Using Crafted NBA's similarity scores, Taylor Hendricks looks like OG Ananoby, Bobby Portis, Otto Porter, Aaron Nesmith on Offense, Giannis, Aaron Gordon, and Rudy Gay on Defense. If you limit it to just comparing it to people's rookie years, it includes Chris Bosh, Miles Bridges, and Rasheed Wallace as similar. It projects Hendricks to be a Quality Long-term starter (it also projects Keyonte and Kessler to be in the same category FYI).

Honestly, after looking at all of these numbers, I am only willing to buy up all of the Taylor Hendrick Island land you may be selling. Also, I ran all of these numbers for Keyonte as well... and ugh, I might need to sell my stake on that island.

[HadAnEffectHere]

A bit quick on this type of judgment, IMO.

If you look at Hendricks per 36 numbers vs. Jaden McDaniels, he averaged the same amount of points on better percentages (also had nearly identical advanced stats) during the regular season last year, and that was Hendricks's first year vs. Jaden's 4th. I think these stats matter far more than any summer league stats. Assuming that Hendricks will never be better than Jaden seems a bit premature as, stat-wise, he is already as impactful/if not better.

Let's look at a few other comparisons to help give us a bit more faith in his potential, perhaps:


Brandon Miller: Taylor put up better-advanced numbers on both defense and offense(!). He (Miller) averaged six more points a game... but did it taking six more shots!

Paul George: Taylor averaged one less point on one less shot and shot better from each area (3s,2s, FT) compared to Paul as a rookie

Jaylen Brown: Same story as Paul George, except Taylor also was more impactful on defense and offense according to most advanced stats)

Pascal Siakam: He didn't surpass Taylor's counting stats (per 36 mins) until his 3rd year as a 24-year-old!

Jabari Smith Jr: Taylor averaged two points less on three shots less while shooting better percentages and having better advanced stats across the board.

Jerami Grant: Didn't exceed Taylors' numbers (in any variety) from last year until he was 23 and in his fourth year.

Using Crafted NBA's similarity scores, Taylor Hendricks looks like OG Ananoby, Bobby Portis, Otto Porter, Aaron Nesmith on Offense, Giannis, Aaron Gordon, and Rudy Gay on Defense. If you limit it to just comparing it to people's rookie years, it includes Chris Bosh, Miles Bridges, and Rasheed Wallace as similar. It projects Hendricks to be a Quality Long-term starter (it also projects Keyonte and Kessler to be in the same category FYI).

Honestly, after looking at all of these numbers, I am only willing to buy up all of the Taylor Hendrick Island land you may be selling. Also, I ran all of these numbers for Keyonte as well... and ugh, I might need to sell my stake on that island.

To be clear, I'm assuming that Hendricks will never be close to as good as Jaden McDaniels (who is like the 20th best SF in the league) and that he's more similar to Aaron Wiggins in terms of impact.

Hendricks is OK shooting a low volume of threes, but any time he's been asked to scale up (such as in the G-League or Summer League), he has done nothing despite massively outclassing his competition physically.

If Hendricks can't dribble and score against closeouts and can't provide much defensive impact, he's a bench PF and like an 8th or 9th man.

[bkohler]

Here's the thing, by almost every advanced metric (PER, VORP, LEBRON, D-LEBRON, O-LEBRON, WAR, WAR-LEBRON) Hendricks was as impactful as Mcdaniels last year. I get that it looks like a teenager growing into his body (kinda cause it is) but his shooting and defense were already impactful last year.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Here's the thing, by almost every advanced metric (PER, VORP, LEBRON, D-LEBRON, O-LEBRON, WAR, WAR-LEBRON) Hendricks was as impactful as Mcdaniels last year. I get that it looks like a teenager growing into his body (kinda cause it is) but his shooting and defense were already impactful last year.

His defense was not at all impactful last year. He's a little too slow for SF and way too small for C, leaving him position locked at PF and his feel for the game, toughness, and motor are not good either.

Again, we were the worst defense in NBA history post ASB last year... You're not really doing that if your 3rd best defender is a game changer.

His offensive stats are juiced as well by the fact that the Jazz have him constantly go after offensive rebounds instead of running back in transition.

[bkohler]

You're not really doing that if your 3rd best defender is a game changer.

Hendricks put up better defensive metrics than Gobert did in his rookie year, and that defense was also awful. I'm not saying Hendricks is a world-beater, but I am saying that any attempts to pass a final judgment on what a 20-year-old kid can and cannot be seems premature. His statistics do not confirm he's got an all-NBA future, nor do they say he's a bust. He's what most rookies are: a talented ball of clay that still needs to be molded.

[Catchall]

Just pretend he's Dorian Finney-Smith and you'll be happy. He defends. He rebounds. He makes corner 3s. He fills the lane.

[bkohler]

Not to be a broken record but according to both advanced and per minute stats DFS has had a single year that was better than Hendricks last year.

I think at some point our eyes might be the problem and as awkward as it looks Hendricks, especially if he takes a step forward, is an archetype of a player that is tremendously impactful.

I think some of the angst is that he doesn’t create for himself with the ball in his hand at the moment, but he can either develop that or develop around that limitation and still be a near all-star level player.

I also think some expectation management on our ends might be worthwhile, Hendricks just had by both counting stats and advanced stats the best rookie season of any 9th pick in the past five years, really - what are we expecting?

[Catchall]

Not to be a broken record but according to both advanced and per minute stats DFS has had a single year that was better than Hendricks last year.

I think at some point our eyes might be the problem and as awkward as it looks Hendricks, especially if he takes a step forward, is an archetype of a player that is tremendously impactful.

I think some of the angst is that he doesn’t create for himself with the ball in his hand at the moment, but he can either develop that or develop around that limitation and still be a near all-star level player.

I also think some expectation management on our ends might be worthwhile, Hendricks just had by both counting stats and advanced stats the best rookie season of any 9th pick in the past five years, really - what are we expecting?

His inability to handle, pass and self-create makes him a role player, but he can be valuable in his role. If he can put up 11/6/1.3b while shooting 38% on 3PAs, he's fine. He's basically a 4th or 5th starter.

[jazzvintage]

Hendricks was raw, drafted on perceived potential as a versatile defender with good room to grow on the other side of things. I'd say he's on his expected path. Too early to draw lines. Not that it matters or even make sense, but I can see him become a longer and probably a little bit better DFS.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Not to be a broken record but according to both advanced and per minute stats DFS has had a single year that was better than Hendricks last year.

I think at some point our eyes might be the problem and as awkward as it looks Hendricks, especially if he takes a step forward, is an archetype of a player that is tremendously impactful.

I think some of the angst is that he doesn’t create for himself with the ball in his hand at the moment, but he can either develop that or develop around that limitation and still be a near all-star level player.

I also think some expectation management on our ends might be worthwhile, Hendricks just had by both counting stats and advanced stats the best rookie season of any 9th pick in the past five years, really - what are we expecting?

His inability to handle, pass and self-create makes him a role player, but he can be valuable in his role. If he can put up 11/6/1.3b while shooting 38% on 3PAs, he's fine. He's basically a 4th or 5th starter.

I mean, Aaron Wiggins can basically do that if given starter minutes (and on 49% shooting from three) and is unplayable in the postseason.

You have to be really really really great at defense to be a starting wing who can do nothing on offense except shoot corner threes and Hendricks was, what, the 3rd or 4th best defender on the worst defense in NBA history last year?

Hendricks has a lot of issues defensively too to overcome.

-No positional versatility: Too slow to play SF, too small+soft to play center
-Just very poor feel for the game
-Doesn't play hard or tough on defense
-Below average rebounder

[bkohler]

If he’s still worse than Aaron Wiggins in 4 years when he’ll be the same age Aaron was this last year then yeah, you’ve got problems.

Writing Hendricks off right now is like continually opening the oven while baking bread and wondering why it doesn’t look like the stuff that’s already been cooked.

Let it chill in the oven a bit more before we make a determination one way or another. It’s got all the ingredients to be delicious and being upset dough isn’t bread yet seems kinda silly.

[babyjax13]

Jerami Grant couldn't dribble or shoot when he came in the league, and Hendricks can at least shoot.

[HadAnEffectHere]

If he’s still worse than Aaron Wiggins in 4 years when he’ll be the same age Aaron was this last year then yeah, you’ve got problems.

Writing Hendricks off right now is like continually opening the oven while baking bread and wondering why it doesn’t look like the stuff that’s already been cooked.

Let it chill in the oven a bit more before we make a determination one way or another. It’s got all the ingredients to be delicious and being upset dough isn’t bread yet seems kinda silly.

I mean, the thing is that he's way worse than Aaron Wiggins currently and while he can get to Aaron Wiggins' level, it's not clear how he's going to get better than Aaron Wiggins on offense as Hendricks' offense other than spot-up shooting isn't improving at all.

Defensively, Hendricks was below average in the NBA and disastrous in the G League and Summer League. Not clear he will get to an elite level on defense.

[bkohler]

If he’s still worse than Aaron Wiggins in 4 years when he’ll be the same age Aaron was this last year then yeah, you’ve got problems.

Writing Hendricks off right now is like continually opening the oven while baking bread and wondering why it doesn’t look like the stuff that’s already been cooked.

Let it chill in the oven a bit more before we make a determination one way or another. It’s got all the ingredients to be delicious and being upset dough isn’t bread yet seems kinda silly.

I mean, the thing is that he's way worse than Aaron Wiggins currently and while he can get to Aaron Wiggins' level, it's not clear how he's going to get better than Aaron Wiggins on offense as Hendricks' offense other than spot-up shooting isn't improving at all.

Defensively, Hendricks was below average in the NBA and disastrous in the G League and Summer League. Not clear he will get to an elite level on defense.

We're just going to have to agree to disagree here. I'm more than willing to revisit this in three years and take the L if that's what happens. I'm willing to take any and all of your Taylor Hendricks island land off your hands, feels like a good gamble to me.

[Inigo Montoya]

Wiggins is 25 years old with 3 seasons under his belt. Hendricks played like 40 games as a rookie. Sure, he's got some weaknesses in his game and he's not going to be a star but he can be a very useful player as long as he continues to improve defensively and improve his shot.