The Jazz have a problem: They're not that bad.

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The Jazz have a problem: They're not that bad. 

Post#1 » by Catchall » Fri Oct 11, 2024 5:06 am

Like last year, the Jazz can put out a starting lineup with young vets, including Lauri, Sexton and a maturing Kessler. Then add Keyonte, who is shooting well and playing with more discipline and maturity, and add Taylor Hendricks, who's become a solid, versatile defender. The Jazz's starting lineup is probably going to keep pace with most of the 35 - 45-win teams.

Off the bench, the Jazz have Clarkson, who's playing well, John Collins, who actually works in a more limited role, and Brice Sensabaugh who has improved his body and his confidence. The Jazz are long, athletic and they play hard every possession. Everybody defends. Everybody rebounds. Even Cody Williams and Isaiah Collier are having an impact defensively.

On offense, the Jazz have a few sets that get Lauri open looks or open lanes where he's really tough to stop. Then between Sexton, Clarkson and Keyonte, the Jazz have multiple guards who can go off for a quarter.

I don't think the Jazz are anywhere near the zip code of Brooklyn, Washington, Detroit or Portland. The Jazz might instead find themselves on pace with Houston, Golden State and the struggling Clippers. More front-office measures are likely needed, or this team will probably win 35 games again.
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Re: The Jazz have a problem: They're not that bad. 

Post#2 » by Inigo Montoya » Fri Oct 11, 2024 9:32 am

The Jazz do play in a much harder conference than Brooklyn, Washington and Detroit so it will help them rack up some losses. They are also not better than last season and got even younger. I expect we'll see a lot of phantom injuries to vets. They managed to win 31 games last season when they tried to win for half a season, hopefully being younger and worse and also being mindful of the goal (top 3 pick) will help with executing the tank properly.

But it might be a frustrating season in the sense that we'll complain no matter what: if the Jazz win then they're screwing up the tank, if they lose they suck and not fun to watch.
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KqWIN wrote:Why are we talking about Middleton, Harris, and Porter?

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Re: The Jazz have a problem: They're not that bad. 

Post#3 » by FJS » Fri Oct 11, 2024 10:55 am

Probably we are going to be better than expected, but it will depend in how our young core do.
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Re: The Jazz have a problem: They're not that bad. 

Post#4 » by SoCalJazzFan » Fri Oct 11, 2024 8:34 pm

It's preseason, and some of the better opposing players haven't played or played sparingly. The Jazz look better than expected when the youngins are sprinkled in with the vets, but look dreadful on their own, like 4Q last night.
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Re: The Jazz have a problem: They're not that bad. 

Post#5 » by Catchall » Sat Oct 12, 2024 7:58 pm

SoCalJazzFan wrote:It's preseason, and some of the better opposing players haven't played or played sparingly. The Jazz look better than expected when the youngins are sprinkled in with the vets, but look dreadful on their own, like 4Q last night.


A couple thoughts on this... First, some teams are going to rest stars or play them sparingly against the Jazz like they did last year. Second, the Jazz are going to have to strategically reduce minutes to guys like Lauri, Colin, both JCs, and possibly Walker as well if they want to pad their loss column. The way to tank is to weaken the bench, or in our case, overplay the bench players.
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Re: The Jazz have a problem: They're not that bad. 

Post#6 » by bkohler » Tue Oct 15, 2024 3:38 pm

I'm not really sure what we can do about it. We can't trade Lauri, JC and JC are stuck unless we give up value for them. Which I guess leaves Sexton and Walker? I could see a world where those two are moved together to make the tank more tanky. But I bet we wait until Dec 15th and see how our record stands and then make some moves to ensure we get a top 5 pick.
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Re: The Jazz have a problem: They're not that bad. 

Post#7 » by BigJimFinn » Wed Oct 16, 2024 7:08 am

Catchall wrote:
SoCalJazzFan wrote:It's preseason, and some of the better opposing players haven't played or played sparingly. The Jazz look better than expected when the youngins are sprinkled in with the vets, but look dreadful on their own, like 4Q last night.


A couple thoughts on this... First, some teams are going to rest stars or play them sparingly against the Jazz like they did last year. Second, the Jazz are going to have to strategically reduce minutes to guys like Lauri, Colin, both JCs, and possibly Walker as well if they want to pad their loss column. The way to tank is to weaken the bench, or in our case, overplay the bench players.


If anything, playing JC & JC a lot of minutes will help the tank. Against Sacramento, Collins looked nice and active at both ends, yet he was -10 in 20 minutes. Clarkson was -11 with 6 TOs. Telling Lauri to keep trying to create off the dribble in traffic also works, even if it makes him look bad, and it seems Hardy still has hope he can improve making plays off post-ups, the final skill he needs to be a true star.

As long as Jazz are giving up 20+ turnovers, a lot of them live giveaways around midcourt, and 20 offensive rebounds I would not worry about them being too good.
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Re: The Jazz have a problem: They're not that bad. 

Post#8 » by stitches » Thu Oct 17, 2024 4:50 pm

The good thing is we will have Lauri for the next 3 35 win seasons...
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Re: The Jazz have a problem: They're not that bad. 

Post#9 » by bkohler » Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:21 pm

stitches wrote:The good thing is we will have Lauri for the next 3 35 win seasons...


I think there’s a good chance Lauri is moved at the draft for another lottery pick.
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Re: The Jazz have a problem: They're not that bad. 

Post#10 » by Inigo Montoya » Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:24 pm

Sprained earlobes are a thing.
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KqWIN wrote:Why are we talking about Middleton, Harris, and Porter?

The real decision the Jazz FO is making is between Continuity, Cap Flexibility, and Cash Considerations.
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Re: The Jazz have a problem: They're not that bad. 

Post#11 » by FJS » Sat Oct 19, 2024 11:56 am

Yesterday they were that bad...

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Re: The Jazz have a problem: They're not that bad. 

Post#12 » by dr0welf » Sat Oct 19, 2024 5:49 pm

That was ugly basketball. It was not entertaining in the least bit. Cooper Flaggs couldn't fix that brand of basketball. Maybe we should play the teams G-league affiliate to make it more interesting
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Re: The Jazz have a problem: They're not that bad. 

Post#13 » by Daddy 801 » Sat Oct 19, 2024 7:06 pm

The Jazz are going to be just fine losing a ton of games. The schedule is brutal at the start of the season which I love. Hardy can play Keyonte, Kessler, and Hendricks a ton of minutes the first third of the season and we should be able to figure out really quick if these guys are going to live up to their potential and still lose a ton of games due to the schedule.

Then the second third Hardy should start integrating the rookies more and seeing what they can do. Hopefully at trade deadline we can move Collins and Clarkson to teams that are looking for role players to help them in the playoffs, and that forces Hardy to play the rookies more.

And the last third of the season Lauri plays half the time and we just let all the young players get more time than they deserve so we can figure out who we need to trade come next draft.

We can’t keep all of our young players and all the draft picks we have. And with the new CBA teams lacking picks but looking to compete now that need rotation players are going to be looking to get young cheap decent players in trade. I wouldn’t be surprised to see moves in the draft where Danny unloads a vet (if we have any) and a young player or two to move up in the draft for a higher pick and maybe a bad expiring contract. The teams like us and OKC with so many picks can’t possibly keep all the picks we have. Veteran teams like Lakers, Warriors, etc will probably trade a 17th pick and bad contract for the 25th pick, Clarkson, and one of our young players who has shown potential but Danny doesn’t believe will be a long term piece. Maybe someone like Hendricks who plays decent this year but doesn’t perform to an elite enough level to be a long term piece. (Sidenote to that thought….doesn't OKC have the Clippers pick this year? OKC could end up with a top ten pick again. They are going to dominate for the next decade. Their GM is a master)

If the Jazz come out and are a .500 team the first 20-30 games that would be shocking but it would probably mean Keyonte and Kessler have improved beyond what we are all expecting. Which is a good problem to have. Also would be a huge tip of the hat to Hardy, even though none of us want to see that happen. So again, a good problem to have if Hardy can somehow pull that off.

The only scary thing to me is if all of our starters are playing well and then Clarkson and Collins have a bounce back season because they are playing off the bench and the second unit is dominating. If that happens Ainge has to move them asap to get some value and get the second unit full of basically only rookies. And of course I want the best value we can get for Clarkson and Collins, but it would be nice if we could trade them to an actual contending team so those guys have a chance at a ring. Think we owe it to Clarkson to send him to a decent team. He’s been a pro the whole time he has been here. At least from what I have seen.

I’d put the chance of us being better than we should be at maybe 10-15%. The probability of Hardy basically being perfect with game plans, Keyonte, Kessler, and Hendricks all over performing, and Clarkson and Collins being efficient off the bench is very low. I don’t see how we win a lot of games unless all of that happens. If it does happen Ainge better do his thing quick though.
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Re: The Jazz have a problem: They're not that bad. 

Post#14 » by dr0welf » Sun Oct 20, 2024 1:21 pm

The chances of tanking and pulling off a great team is slim. Unless you are the Spurs, who have timed it right twice with Duncan and VW. We missed our chance on VW by poorly tanking. I feel our chances of properly tanking and getting what we want out of it is just as slim as having all our players excel this year and it killing the tank. Either way we are not good.
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Re: The Jazz have a problem: They're not that bad. 

Post#15 » by Inigo Montoya » Sun Oct 20, 2024 1:57 pm

dr0welf wrote:The chances of tanking and pulling off a great team is slim. Unless you are the Spurs, who have timed it right twice with Duncan and VW. We missed our chance on VW by poorly tanking. I feel our chances of properly tanking and getting what we want out of it is just as slim as having all our players excel this year and it killing the tank. Either way we are not good.

The good news are the Jazz don't need the get the #1 pick. A top 3-4 pick would also be a success as there are other very good prospects other than Flagg.
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KqWIN wrote:Why are we talking about Middleton, Harris, and Porter?

The real decision the Jazz FO is making is between Continuity, Cap Flexibility, and Cash Considerations.
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Re: The Jazz have a problem: They're not that bad. 

Post#16 » by Catchall » Sun Oct 20, 2024 6:40 pm

Brooklyn, Washington, Detroit, and I think Toronto, are clearly worse than the Jazz. Portland may turn out to be half-decent.
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Re: The Jazz have a problem: They're not that bad. 

Post#17 » by Inigo Montoya » Sun Oct 20, 2024 6:47 pm

Catchall wrote:Brooklyn, Washington, Detroit, and I think Toronto, are clearly worse than the Jazz. Portland may turn out to be half-decent.

On the other hand, Brooklyn, Washington and Detroit are playing in an easier conference and will have to play each other 4 times (I haven't checked) so they are bound the pick up some mandatory wins.
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KqWIN wrote:Why are we talking about Middleton, Harris, and Porter?

The real decision the Jazz FO is making is between Continuity, Cap Flexibility, and Cash Considerations.
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Re: The Jazz have a problem: They're not that bad. 

Post#18 » by babyjax13 » Sat Oct 26, 2024 6:33 am

well...
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Re: The Jazz have a problem: They're not that bad. 

Post#19 » by MalonesElbows » Sat Oct 26, 2024 12:33 pm

The good news: Jazz look bad enough to finish 4th. That's really all you need since the odds for Cooper are 13.2% pretty much same as finishing worst (14%)

The bad news: I see no improvement in George, Hendricks, Kessler....this young core is far inferior to the potential when we had Favors, Kanter, Burks, Hayward, Burke, Exum......
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Re: The Jazz have a problem: They're not that bad. 

Post#20 » by BigJimFinn » Fri Nov 1, 2024 8:14 am

Problem solved!
When losing Kris Dunn hurts you because the team doesn't have a single reliable dribbler and passer...
you are definitely bad enough. The overall team level of ballhandling, passing and decision making is clearly worse than last season even, so they should aim to break turnover records while chasing the top pick. Worst in West looks safe.

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