Rank the Bigs

[erudite23]

As we all know, the Jazz are likely going to be drafting for size with #23, and this year's crop has a
glut of upside types that could potentially make a team look really smart (or the reverse) down the
road. Of all the bigs in the draft, only the Beasley, Love and the Lopez twins seem to have zero
chance of slipping to us. The rest--with one exception whom I will address in further detail later--
are listed below. Rank them according to your preference. A little explanation would be nice, but
whatever:

Hibbert
McGee
Ajinca
Arthur
Speights
Ibaka
Koufous
Hickson
Thompson




I'm going like this:

1. Hibbert
2. Ajinca
3. Speights
4. Koufous
5. Ibaka
6. McGee
7. Arthur
8. Hickson
9. Thompson


Hibbert has been the popular pick to go to us for awhile, and I, after some doubt, have settled on
him as my ideal choice there. He seems to be athletic enough to be a factor as a help defender in
the league, and his size is something we just don't have in our rotation right now. He is also more
skilled than people give him credit for, and quite intelligent. I don't think he'll be there, but I will
be a happy camper if we get him.

Ajinca seems to be the best upside guy available in the whole draft, imo. He is huge, and athletic.
With a defensive bent, and a great work ethic and drive. I don't know why, but I see him being an
NBA player for a long time.

After that, Speights has all the measurables, but a bad attitude. I wouldn't normally want to touch
the guy, but he was still reasonably productive without a great motor, and could potentially be a
guy who figures it out just a little bit later. Even if he doesn't, I can see him being a solid backup
with defensive and rebounding potential. That's all we really need.

Koufos is the worst fit, skill wise, but I like the guy a lot. If I was drafting strictly BPA, I would
probably tab him. Unfortunately he duplicates Memo too much.

After those four it gets dicey. I don't like McGee, he just seems to have bust--AKA Patrick O'Bryant--
written all over him. Ibaka is miles and miles away, and I don't really like what I've heard. Arthur
almost certainly won't be there, and he is a horrible fit, AND he isn't the type of player that
succeeds on a Jerry Sloan team. Hickson is too small and offensive minded for my tastes, while
Thompson seems like a soft player who will almost certainly bust.




Finally, there is the issue of DeAndre Jordan. Before the season started, I would have thought that
the only way we might have a shot at drafting him is if Deron and Boozer decided to do Plastic Man
imitations at midcourt of the season opener and ended up blowing their ACLs out the side of the
knees onto the Jazz logo.

Now, he appears to be free falling down the draft board. The guy legitimately has super star
potential from a physical standpoint, though I would give 4-to-1 odds that he will be a massive
bust.....Still, if he ended up falling into our laps, and then developing into even HALF the player he
could become, I would be willing to mortgage my home to bet on a Jazz championship in the near
future. That is how big he could be for us. So, it's a long shot, and it certainly is still unlikely that
he even gets to us. But a guy with his size and defensive ability prowling the lane is something that
I haven't even let myself dream about, its so surreal to think about. I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'......

[fivas14]

1. Arthur
2. Jordan (He's been falling like crazy in mocks lately)
3. Hibbert
4. Koufos
5. Thompson
6. Speights
7. McGee (He's not a defensive minded player)
8. Ibaka
9. Hickson
10. Ajinca

[GP]

Not terribly familiar with the other guys on the list, so here are my top 3:

1. Speights - this guy has all the tools and seems to be "NBA ready", he would be ready to get pt immediately, again like Erud mentioned, the guy is a bit of a head case. If he puts it all together he's going to be a force in the league.

2. Ajinca - this guy has the highest potential of the three, but he's a long term project (very raw).

3. Hibbert - seems to have a lower ceiling than the top 2 centers, but is more consistent. Has a good attitude.

I would take speights in a sec if he's still on the board (he won't be though). Ajinca will take few years to start to develop. Hibbert seems to be a good fit. I guess who the jazz pick could also have to do with how far along Fez is. If the FO thinks he is ready to get min, maybe the jazz would have time to develop ajinca. If they think Fez need another year or two, they will probably go with speights or hibbert.

[loserX]

Just out of curiosity, no Robin Lopez on your list? I'd have him over at least a couple of guys you named.

[erudite23]

Addressed that in my original post. He is basically a lock to be off the board by that point. If not, I would have him #2 after Hibbert.

[HammerDunk]

David Locke seems to be pretty high on Hibbert right now, mentioning that he would even trade up for him. I don't know much about the other guys as I haven't studied the draft whatsoever, but from what Locke was saying, it sounds like Hibbert would be a good addition to the team.

[The Sheik]

I think your a little harsh on Thompson. He seems like a competitor, he isnt a beast like Millsap, but I think he has a lot of upside on the offensive end, and who really knows about any of these players except perhaps Robin Lopez on the defensive end.

Im doing my rankings purely based on my assessments on the bigs from video and mock draft analysis as well as the Jazz needs and what they are most likely looking for:

1. Hibbert
2. Koufos
3. Ajinca
4. Arthur
5. Speights
6. Thompson
7. Hickson
8. Jordan
9. Mcgee
10. Ibaka

The latter 3 have tons of talent, but kids like that are a complete crap shoot. The Jazz already have one player like that and I with their track record of developing very young players I dont see them touching Jordan or Mcgee if they drop that far.

I was surprised Jordan came out at all. He was basically no different then a euro big, has a ton of talent, but didnt play a lot last season. How can a pre-season top 5 pick not get playing time. Right now Jordan is as raw as Ibaka as far as skills go. The same can be said for Mcgee...the guy is frail though.

Ive never been a fan of these "upside" guys. My approach to these real young players is you look for something that you know you will get from them, not something you might. Sure Gerald Green had way more upside then CJ Miles...the next T-Mac, right. But the Jazz knew that CJ was good (maybe not great) at a lot of things (shooting, ball handling etc.). They knew that the only if they needed from him was to grow into his body. I will take a guy like CJ over an Uber prospect like Gerald Green anyday.

Hickson and Speights could definitely be sleepers in the draft, they are both physically ready to play in the league, but need to fine tune there game, still learn some things on the court and mature. I could definitely see one of those 2 being a starting quality PF.

Thompson and Arthur are similar guys that play that Dirk/Antwan Jamison type 4 game..a lot of face up with good mid range jump shooting. Arthur has more upside, but Thompson has better length.

Koufos looks like the real deal and I think he could have easily been a top 10 pick next yr. He has great skills and touch for a big man, has a good feel for the game and has the ability to play good D on the other end of the floor.

Im always hesitant of Euro bigs because I have no idea what they will do in the NBA. On paper and video Ajinca looks great, he played against good competition last yr, seems to have his mind in the right place, sounds like he wants to work and get better. But will he be the first euro big to play a game similar to Dalembret with a jumper or will he be Johan Petro, Saer Sene etc.

Hibbert is definitely the only sure fire guy that I know will have a long pro career. He passes the ball well, has a great understanding of the game. He can score and disturb shots on D. He has a great attitude and work ethic. He is the perfect fit for the Jazz and hopefully they get him.

[JDubJazz]

1. Hibbert - He's a classic Jazz style center. Not super mobile, but a good passer. If he can throw the outlet pass off the rebound like Eaton used to do, then he would be worth trading up to get him.
2. Koufos - I think there's basically zero chance of him being there and he duplicates Memo, but I'm not sure thats a bad thing.
3. Tomic - I'm surprised he's not on anyone's list yet, because I think this may be the guy the Jazz go with. He's huge, active and they can leave him overseas for a year or two.
4. Ajinca - I love this guys potential and his wingspan (7'8") is insane. There's a high Saer Sene bust factor there, though.
5. Speights - I'm really ambivalent towards him.
6. Jordan - Once again, I think he'll be gone, but if he's there you almost have to take the chance. He's another Andrew Bynum type prospect.
7. - 10. Thompson, McGee, Hickson: el busto

[loserX]

The latter 3 have tons of talent, but kids like that are a complete crap shoot. The Jazz already have one player like that and I with their track record of developing very young players I dont see them touching Jordan or Mcgee if they drop that far.

This is a great point that I think a lot of us are overlooking. We already have our "gamble/upside" big man prospect in Fesenko. Taking another one makes no sense. It would be a lot smarter to look at contributors first, "projects" second or not at all.

[erudite23]

My big thing is this:

With these many bigs that all have potential, and knowing the history and nature of the draft, you KNOW that there is at least one future star among these 10 players. Every year there is a guy that emerges from the pack of mid-to-late 1st rounders to become at least a high quality starter and often a bonafide star player. It usually takes some time, like 2 or 3 years or so, but it happens in almost every draft.

2005- Monta Ellis and David Lee
2004- Kevin Martin
2003- David West and Josh Howard
2002- Carlos Boozer and Tayshaun Prince
2001- a ton of players: Parker, Wallace, Randolph, Arenas, Okur etc


All of these players were in the mid-to-late 1st round mix at some time during their respective draft processes. With this many big men that fit the mold, its basically a lock that one is a future star/high level starter. WE NEED TO FIND THAT GUY. It doesn't matter when or how he develops, it just matters that we get him. For my money, I think that Hibbert is a lock to be a solid player with an outside shot at being a All Star. I see Koufos, Ajinca and Speights--in that order--as being the sleeper big guy who makes it big.

[The Sheik]

To me it seems like worst case scenario...if we do draft Hibbert he ends up being Greg Ostertag...which isnt a bad thing compared to Jarron Collins. Best case scenario is he becomes an effective 10, 6 and 1-2 guy.

I think Koufos has the greatest potential, but with the fail rate of these Euro-style guys who knows. I think he, Ajinca and Speights are the class of these available big men.

Unlike Fes, this is a guaranteed contract for 4 yrs(well 2 with 2 options), so the Jazz have to take a sure thing at 23. I have no problem taking a project guy in the 2nd rd. If Omer Asik or Jawai are there at 45 that would be amazing.

[GP]

If hibbert turns into ostertag, I would be ecstatic. Tag was the wrong type of player for that jazz team, he would be perfect for this team. Tag was a mess on offense, no hands, slow.....However, on defense he was always good for clogging the lane. This is exactly what the jazz need, they don't need another scorer, just a guy who can clog the lane and make players hesitant to drive into the lane.