RealGM

Posted: **Fri Jul 25, 2008 4:00 pm**

I posted a thread in the Gen board about this and got locked because the dumbass mod failed to see the point. Yes, this is an Euro related thread, but it's a whole new spin that hasn't been either posted nor discussed, and since there isn't an "official" thread, there was no reason for him to lock it. I however, would like to at least debate the subject (that's what the freaking boards are for, no?) so I bring it here.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=828290

I wrote:OK, first of all, for those of you who do "see it", don't get pissed off by the title, I know some of you "see it" but "Some of you still can't see it" title isn't as dramatic, you know?

On to "it".

The Euro wave, or better said, the USAan wave onto Europe that has been widly discussed around here is a LOT more serious than most give credit. I find it laghable (and rather pathetic) when some posters come out and claim that the NBA will "NEVER" drop to 2nd tier behind Europe because the top players will "NEVER" jump ship, or continent. That right there, is actually true, as I think it's safe to say all the current crop of superstars will not go over to Europe, at least not in their primes (Maybe a 38-40 year old Kobe could go to play in Italy or something, etc.)

However, this is what sadly, most of you don't or refuse to see. The same way many young players were brought at 17 from Europe, what can prevent Europe from doing the same thing?

The NBA, as it stands right now, requires all player to be one year removed from HS, or 19 years of age to enter the NBA draft in order to enter the league. And as a rule in the draft, salaries are "assigned" to the picks if you will. So there is only so much a draftee could get in his first couple of seasons.

My point is, right now, yes, most top players are in the NBA, but what about the future "top players"?

Lets take this case for example...

2009's crop of HS sensations features LeBron Oden (yeah, it's a fictional case, so don't get all exited, and yes, he'd look REALLY OLD). At 18, he's graduating HS.

Now, in order to enter the NBA, he has to, by rule, play a year in college, where he will NOT earn any profesional money and risks a career threatning injury, or to just drop his stock. And, in the best case, he blows the NCAA competition out of the water, is drafted no. 1 overall to a salary of around $1.8 M net (correct me if I'm wrong here please) for his first 3-4 years.

On the other hand, lets say the Real Madrid has been following the kid since his junior year, and at graduation (maybe even before) they come to him and offer him something around 2 M € net a year while paying for college in Madrid. Not that at the moment, 2 million € equals $ 3.14 million. They also give him the option to enter the NBA draft if he wants once he's eligble.

So, what do you think the kid will do? You think a young kid will turn down over $3 million to go to college for FREE, where he can get hurt and at best come out earning just $ 1.8 million a year after?

This is what can and most likely will end the NBA's reign as the no. 1 elilte league in the world. Not the current crop of players heading east. That's just a sign of what's to come IMO.

P.S. If I remember correctly, the NBA is looking at augmenting the age and years removed from HS to 20 and 2 respectivly.

Posted: **Fri Jul 25, 2008 4:22 pm**

It was locked because he is right... There are several threads already about this on the general board. No real need for another one.

The first pick in the draft gets about $4 mil per year not $1.8.

So in your scenario he goes to Europe for one year and then comes back. Europe is heading in the right direction but I just don't see it overtaking the NBA in the next 20 years.

Posted: **Fri Jul 25, 2008 5:36 pm**

The issue now is the value of the dollar. These guys getting these contracts in Euros are getting inflated value because our contracts are worth less for the same number. The Euro teams aren't inflating the value of their contracts as much as it seems because the numbers are being converted to dollars. A few teams may try and get the 18 year old Americans but I think they will find that to not be a wise investment. They are better served by developing players who will stay with them for at least some time.

Posted: **Fri Jul 25, 2008 6:04 pm**

You want to know who to blame?

Posted: **Fri Jul 25, 2008 7:12 pm**

I'm not sure if the NBA will ever become 2nd tier like the article says. I think due to our lack of performance in the last couple of Olympics people perceive the NBA no longer as the premier league it once was. However, I still believe the level of competition and players in the NBA is above all at this time and will continue to be the Mecca of professional basketball.

The one thing I have noticed however is how playing overseas has become a viable option for different caliber players. No longer does it seem just an option for "washed-out" or "NBA-rejects," but now young promising players like Childress are receiving lucrative contracts and lured out of the NBA. Also, like mentioned in the article, high school NBA prospects will now look overseas as an option instead of the one year college requirement. I believe this trend could defeat the initial purpose of the rule which was to expose these high school NBA porspects to a college education and environment.

The NBA will now have to view these recent trends and adjust their decision/rules accordingly. Perhaps making rules where it would more difficult for a player who leaves the NBA to play overseas and who later decides to return or modifying the "one and done" rule to serve a different purpose. Regardless, I think the game of Basketball is expanding and it's encouraging that these overseas leagues are investing the the time, effort and money to bring talent to their leagues. Perhaps the NBA is nearing the days where we will have an international teams as part of the NBA!

Posted: **Fri Jul 25, 2008 8:09 pm**

First, the $ 1.8 is net, not gross. I'm not sure if the number is that accurate, but I'm preatty sure the net amount is much less than the $ 4 M gross. Also, on the HSers, I'm not talking DeShawn Stevenson or CJ Miles here (allthough I think CJ could be really good), I'm talking LeBron James, Oden, Durant type players out of HS, than can no longer jump directly into the league. A phenom if you will. If there is a big name HS phenom, there is nothing stopping an Euro club from offering something like 3-4M € a year plus college (Euro games are less (I think) and more appart (one per week I think), so they could attend a college while playing prefesionally). When that happenes, where is the NBA gonna get it's next Kobe, KG, LBJ, Howard, Durant, Oden, etc players???? That's when it'll get interesting. You can say that young top Euro talent has stopped coming over and now regular talent is leaving the NBA. So it's evening out. But... What's going to happen when top young USA talent starts to leave???

Also, I think what will happen is not a global NBA, but an international league following the Euroleague model. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the Euroleague is a composed of teams from DIFFERENT leagues. Each country has their "top" league, like the ACB in Spain. Out of those leagues, some of the top clubs compose what is known as the Euroleague which they actually play along side their respective domestic leagues. And I think there are more then one, just that the Euroleague is the very best, but there's the ULEB and so on that follow the same principle, to a lesser level.

So, an international league following that principle wouldn't affect nor change anything.

Imagine, the top 8 NBA clubs, Euroleague clubs, top Asian, African? Australian? and American (non NBA) clubs participating while playing in their own leagues. Say the Celtics play the Heat in the NBA, and in two days, the Celtics face off against the Real Madrid in an International League bout. I think that's where we are headed, and also think it's an awsome idea.

Posted: **Fri Jul 25, 2008 9:04 pm**

Nba plays too many games and would have to travel too much for them to be part of a league like that. I would love to see them cut the number of games and add something like that but it won't happen.

There is nothing stopping HS going to europe out of HS instead of college. Jennings is going to do it this year. In the end though, their goal would be to come back to the US and play in the NBA.

Posted: **Fri Jul 25, 2008 10:31 pm**

In one sense, your point is well-taken. We will see more and more HS kids doing Europe for a couple years instead of college. However, as you yourself admit, their ultimate goal is to come to the NBA, so how could that fact alone lead to the NBA being basketball's second tier? That's like arguing that the NBA is second tier to the NCAA.

I do believe that the NBA's middle-tier talent pool will be diluted, though, as "decent"-level players like Josh Childress continue to go overseas for more money.

Posted: **Sat Jul 26, 2008 2:11 pm**

JStockLivesOn wrote:In one sense, your point is well-taken. We will see more and more HS kids doing Europe for a couple years instead of college. However, as you yourself admit, their ultimate goal is to come to the NBA, so how could that fact alone lead to the NBA being basketball's second tier? That's like arguing that the NBA is second tier to the NCAA.

I do believe that the NBA's middle-tier talent pool will be diluted, though, as "decent"-level players like Josh Childress continue to go overseas for more money.

They could "want" to return to the NBA, but if they go to Europe, develope over there and become superstars, do you think they'll submit to the NBA draft and what that means salary wise??

They'll probably not go for that much (2 M €) initially out of HS, but if they do develope over there and become superstars (world class elite players) don't you think they'll recieve a HUGE amount to stay?? If Childress and co. are earning $ 10 M (6.4 M €), don't you think a young stud would recieve even more?? And given the fact that the difference in competition isn't as much now, and will diminish even more in the future, the goal of returning to the NBA will most likely be displaced. My guess is the guys that don't pan out in Europe will opt. to return (kind of funny actually, up to a few years ago it was completly the opposite).

Posted: **Sat Jul 26, 2008 2:14 pm**

To say "the difference in competition isn't much" now is a bit disingenuous. Sure, there's LESS of a gap. But the NBA is still significantly superior.

I think this is just a pipe dream...

RealGM

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