Jazz future, who stays, who goes?

[babyjax13]

http://thesaltpalace.blogspot.com/

read tuesday July 29th post...

Considering that the Jazz are going to have to invest a lot of money in players like Brewer, Boozer, Okur, and Millsap who will be out of the picture in the Jazz future? I think that most Jazz fans are of the opinion that AK will be gone soon, traded for a more reasonable contract, but considering our defensive situation I have to disagree---unless we can get a very good interior defender.

What I see:

2009: Jazz predicted payroll $47,000,000 (about 13 mill in cap space, draft picks signed)

Boozer opts out of contract (currently 11.5, 09: 12.3) I am just going to assume that the Jazz give him a big pay raise to the 14-18 million dollar range with 8% increases every year, or flatlined. I think though that the best move may be front-loading his contract, and then having decreases of 5-8%, but with our cap looking like it does I don't see that happening. Actually with our cap the way it is I can't see the Jazz re-signing Boozer witout a somewhat major trade happening.

-$2,000,000 (approx)

I think Harpring will be ready to retire, so his salary is gone.

I don't think that Okur will opt out of his contract becuase a new one won't be worth much more unless he has a career season, so we're ok there...

Now comes the next three free agents (all unrestricted): Ronnie Price, Brevin Knight, and Jarron Collins. I think Collins will be gone, and we will give Price a 3-year contract worth about six million. Knight may resign for the vets minimum (about 1.1 million), but I doubt it.

-$4,000,000 (approx)

Next we have the restricted free agent: Paul Millsap.... Lots of teams will be after him to back up their star forwards.

-$10,000,000 so we need to clear space, if we don't we're in trouble...

When you look at the salaries you can see where we will have problems...
a) we can't resign all of our unrestricted free agents, and we'll really be in trouble if Boozer, Okur, and Korver opt out, and Harpring decides not to retire.
b) our draft picks take off about $2,000,000 of cap space.
c) what will teams throw at Millsap? I'm thinking we could see him being signed for the full mle, so I think we may have to trade him, or let him walk.
d) we can't resign a good player to replace Boozer untill 2010 (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/stor ... ents-09-10)
e) if all of our free agents opt out, and Harpring retires we can only afford to resign Boozer, Price, and Millsap. This means that we will lose all of our best shooters (Okur, Korver), as well as Knight. We will also only have 9 players under contract (11 counting rookies), so we will have to sign some players for the minimum.

Everyone seems to be worried about who the Jazz could trade to become an elite team that competes for the tittle, when they should be worried about our team getting broken up next year...So my question to you is, what do we do?

disregard the trades, they were a bad idea...lesson learned.

[pink22]

Those trades you posted are HORRENDOUS trades for the Jazz. Agreed that something must be done, but not like that.

[fivas14]

Bargs? We just drafted a project like him.

[babyjax13]

Any trade we do would most likely have bad value for the Jazz, but it's better to lose talent at one position than to lose half the team to free agency..

[hoops4life]

I am not so sure we have to have bad value coming back to the Jazz, especially if you are going to include Milsap, Almond, or a pick (which by the way can't be traded until the '11 season).

[fivas14]

And the Memo trade is AWFUL. Why would we trade him to PORTLAND?

[babyjax13]

Well, what do you guys think we can do? My ideas obviously suck, but then again I'm not brilliant (wish I was). What I really wanted to know is what everyone else thinks we can do, next time I ask a question I won't even talk about trades, it just muddles up the entire thing....

[fivas14]

You're all right, I was being a dick.

We need to do something, after watching these olympics I'm not impressed with booz anymore and is becoming more move able every day.

[hoops4life]

Booz is playing next to Howard in the Olympics, of course he isn't going to look like a defensive beast next to him.

I really think that Ak is the one that is going to go. The Jazz can get value for AK, I am just afraid that they are going to want too much. We can't get a lot of players back due to roster spots and cap. I wouldn't be shocked to see Almond traded as well. I have a hard time seeing Harpring retiring with a year on his contract. I guess it really depends on what happens this year and how healthy he can stay.

[fivas14]

Boozer comes in and plays the other teams scrubs, he doesn't play with Howard.

Although, he and Deron are looking better.

[The Sheik]

Personally I think AK needs to go. He has never showed me that he is about the team. He is always complaining about me this and me that. His stats are ever declining and he only cares about getting offensive touches yet doesnt deliver on the defensive end. I think AK is the biggest loser and mentally weak player on this team(well that plays, Im sure Fess is just as bad). Im personally just not big fans of Europeans, Memo and Manu are the exceptions. Its been 3 yrs and he still wont except a role, and he wont ever go back to his old ways. Its like Locke says, there are Ballers and people that play basketball because they are 6'10". I dont think AK is a baller, and those arent the kinda players I want on this team.

We have made investments in CJ and Korver, eventually we should make one in Ronnie Brewer as well. I think we just need to deal AK for cap relief and a pick and start Korver next to Brewer, he takes the pressure off Ronnie to be an outside shooter and CJ moves into the backup role and similarly works an opposites game with Matt.

[carrottop12]

3 years from now my guess it the Jazz still have most of this core intact. Maybe no Andrei or Memo.

Deron
Boozer
Ronnie
CJ
Millsap
Fesenko
Koufos

They will be here, the rest will be retired or traded.

[hoops4life]

Don't forget Tomic.

I sure hope that Okur sticks around.

[idajazz]

For whatever reason my brain just can't see Memo going anywhere.

Boozer or AK will be gone, my gut says AK

[erudite23]

Well, one of the Boozer/Okur/AK trio will have to leave. With LHM stating unequivocally in the papers the other day that he is not going to allow the Jazz to drift into luxury tax land, that is a hard and fast line they are taking. There is no way to avoid paying the tax with those 3 and Deron all under contract, so one obviously must go.

Who it is, though, will depend--at least imo--almost entirely on how this year plays out.

For example, I can easily see Kosta showing off his all around game, pushing for some minutes and making Memo expendable. Then, when Memo opts out, we allow him to walk or facilitate some sort of S&T deal where we get non-guaranteed contracts back.

Or, lets say that Boozer has his hammy act up again, or his back, or wtfever, and misses a 10 game stretch. Now Millsap gets a chance to start and he comes in and show the ability to bang night in and night out with NBA bigs for 35mpg. After the season we let Booz walk and re-sign Paul to a lucrative--but still much more palatable--extension.

Or, in another twist of circumstance, AK suddenly is hooked up the the Juvenation Machine, and returns to his previously dominant form, thus making it nearly impossible to trade him and forcing our hand with either Memo or Booz.

A host of different things could happen. CJ could really come on and actually make it in our best interest to get AK out of the way so he could get more PT. Brewer could completely blow up (maybe the most likely of all the things I've listed) and demand 35mpg with his play, which would relegate AK to the 20mpg role that RB was getting. I could go on all day long.

Bottom line for me is that we need to seize the day this year. I think we have a chance to take the whole shebang, and we need to not waste this opportunity. After this year, we are going to lose a very good player, but luckily we have talented enough young guys that we could make up for it, as well as a potentially huge asset in the NYK 2010 pick.

Who leaves is anyones guess. If I had to guess today I would say that we end up trading AK for cap relief and a late 1st (a pittance, and a sad sack of trash compared to what he used to be worth), but this situation is so fluid that anything could happen. Hell, Booz and Memo could both have bad enough years that neither opts out at all. Stranger things have happened.

[BiggMann]

Talk about beating a dead horse... but i understand we've got very little else to talk about. But here's my synopsis. Boozer will opt out, and get a large offer, Utah will match this offer.

Memo COULD opt out, but I doubt it. Unless he wants to bolt to Europe. Korver... I could care less if he opts out. We've got CJ that needs minutes, and I'd rather give those minutes to CJ than Kyle.

If we are able to swing a trade for AK that brings in decent talent and cap relief I think we'll jump on it. If nothing comes along for AK, it could mean bye bye Boozer because he holds the most value right now.

[tankster]

Arrgh........And the end of the world as we know it, may be upon us!

[loserX]

It's tough for me to figure.

If Boozer and Okur opt out, they will be UNrestricted free agents. Utah will not have a right to match their contracts; if they want to go, they can go.

That's why I don't know that we can afford to trade AK for salary relief. What if we do that to clear space to re-sign Boozer...and then Boozer decides he likes Miami better anyway? The one guy we could have slotted in as his replacement at PF (unless Millsap is 100% ready) is now gone, and we've almost completely gutted the team.

Maybe that's why we re-signed CJ? As protection? So if Boozer leaves, we can slide AK over to PF and play Ronnie and CJ on the wing? I don't know, just thinking "out loud". Be interesting to see what happens.

[BiggMann]

It's tough for me to figure.

If Boozer and Okur opt out, they will be UNrestricted free agents. Utah will not have a right to match their contracts; if they want to go, they can go..

it's not a matter of matching. Utah can offer more that any other team, so if Miami comes with a ridiculous offer. Utah can counter, and Boozer can decide which offer to accept.

[loserX]

it's not a matter of matching. Utah can offer more that any other team, so if Miami comes with a ridiculous offer. Utah can counter, and Boozer can decide which offer to accept.

Exactly. So in other words, we are guaranteed nothing. If Boozer wants to leave, he can leave no matter how much capspace we clear. If we're going to give away "core" players for salary purposes, we have to take that risk into account, that's all.