Taking stock as we head down the stretch

[erudite23]

Here we are, finally on the other side of the road trip. 15 games left. 8 road, 7 home. A game up on the 8th seed. A game and a half from the 3rd seed. Where do we stand, and what are our chances of making a serious push--not just for playoff position, but for the whole enchilada?


Road Woes
I thought going into the road trip that a 3-2 record--at minimum--would be necessary in order to declare it a success. Everything looked good in the 3rd quarter during the game last Wednesday. We had mostly controlled each game in the trip and imposed our will upon our opponents in Toronto and Indiana, and were in the process--it appeared--of doing the same against Atlanta.

Unfortunately, we fell apart in the final quarter-- and really, just the final 6 minutes--and the complexion of everything suddenly shifted. We give the game away in Atlanta (with some truly horrific officiating providing an assist).

Then came the nightmare in Miami. A game which I said at TWO DIFFERENT POINTS "well, we have this one." And I only ever say that when it is all but assured that we will win. Like, at a point where no reasonable outcome will result in a loss. And I said it TWICE.

After that barn burner, its no surpise what happened in Orlando. The team had been beaten, battered and, maybe, broken.

So what can we take from it? Its easy to give in to the pressure and declare this team a lost cause. They can't take good teams on the road. Say what you want, but they just can't do it.

That is the easy route.

But if you want the truth, you really have to look at the way they lost. With the obvious exception of the Orlando game, we were clearly the best team on the floor for each game on the trip. We were in control, we were playing hard, and we were playing with confidence.

As everyone knows, Rome wasn't built in a day. Going from being a really bad road team to an excellent one isn't going to happen like flipping a switch. On this trip, I saw a team that was had committed to winning road games. A team that had built the determination to do so. Unfortunately, we ran into a few unusual circumstances, mixed in generously with our own mistakes. But its still something we can build on.

Its hard to say, but this road trip was a win.


Health

Is Boozer healthy? He doesn't look like himself yet. What I'm really confused about is...how does a bum knee affect your hands? The dude has muffed so damn many passes and easy plays with unforced TOs that I've literally wanted to reach into the TV and straighten out the wrinkles on his head. Ultimately, though, if we want to be serious contenders, we have to have Boozer operating at 100%. He is getting back to hitting his fadeaway Js and converting more going to the basket. He's made progress, but I need to see more.


The bigger thing, though, is that Kyle Korver is now finally operating at max capacity. It has been a hugely underrated story line this year, but his wrist has hurt us nearly as bad as AK's ankle, Memo's back and maybe even Boozer's knee. Now that he's healthy, teams are seeing what a dangerous weapon he can be in this offense. I look for this to only get better.

Overall, this team is really starting to get a total cohesive healthiness that I seriously doubted would ever happen, and it is the reason why....


Contenders?

I say we are legit contenders. Not favorites. Definitely not in that stratosphere, as I seriously felt we would be going into this year. But it is certainly within the realm of plausibility to think we could knock off the Lakers and take the West.

We are as deep as any team in the league. Most nights our second unit is really a difference maker. We are versatile and dangerous in as many ways as any team in the league. We can play any type of game, and we can match up with any team.

Most people are still reeling from that devastating end to the road trip, so they don't want to hear this. But I think the Jazz could be poised to make a real leap here. Its not definite, and I certainly don't want to indicate that I am buying my Finals tickets here or anything, but I see a little something gestating here. And I think that something could be greatness.

*shrug*

Maybe I'm wrong

[buzzer]

erudite 23 ... I've been reading this forum for many months ... have chosen not to post until now . Kudos to you ... you have impressed me with most, if not all, of your posts and your analysis of the situation with the jazz ... I totally agree with your assessment of this team, it's players, and their potential to be something great. especially your assertion that this recent 5 game road trip was, in fact, a win and could very well be the catalyst to propel this team far into the playoffs ... and barring any serious injury to any of our players ... perhaps even a western conference championship and dare I say it ... NBA Championship. I suspect that this post will draw a lot of criticism from those who seem to look for all the negatives and who like to dwell on past history and use statistics to prove to anyone who would dare to think otherwise ... that this Jazz team will never be a contender. To them I say ... they are entitled to their opinion and their right to express it. To you, erudite 23, I say ... Thanks for your thoughtful assessments and keep up the great posts !!!

[carrottop12]

It's all about the front line.

Boozer, Okur, Kirilenko and Millsap shoul dominate every team in the league.

If they all play their best, the Jazz are legit.

If any of them disappear, so will the Jazz' finals hopes.

[el loco]

Here we are, finally on the other side of the road trip. 15 games left. 8 road, 7 home. A game up on the 8th seed. A game and a half from the 3rd seed. Where do we stand, and what are our chances of making a serious push--not just for playoff position, but for the whole enchilada?


Road Woes
I thought going into the road trip that a 3-2 record--at minimum--would be necessary in order to declare it a success. Everything looked good in the 3rd quarter during the game last Wednesday. We had mostly controlled each game in the trip and imposed our will upon our opponents in Toronto and Indiana, and were in the process--it appeared--of doing the same against Atlanta.

Unfortunately, we fell apart in the final quarter-- and really, just the final 6 minutes--and the complexion of everything suddenly shifted. We give the game away in Atlanta (with some truly horrific officiating providing an assist).

Then came the nightmare in Miami. A game which I said at TWO DIFFERENT POINTS "well, we have this one." And I only ever say that when it is all but assured that we will win. Like, at a point where no reasonable outcome will result in a loss. And I said it TWICE.

After that barn burner, its no surpise what happened in Orlando. The team had been beaten, battered and, maybe, broken.

So what can we take from it? Its easy to give in to the pressure and declare this team a lost cause. They can't take good teams on the road. Say what you want, but they just can't do it.

That is the easy route.

But if you want the truth, you really have to look at the way they lost. With the obvious exception of the Orlando game, we were clearly the best team on the floor for each game on the trip. We were in control, we were playing hard, and we were playing with confidence.

As everyone knows, Rome wasn't built in a day. Going from being a really bad road team to an excellent one isn't going to happen like flipping a switch. On this trip, I saw a team that was had committed to winning road games. A team that had built the determination to do so. Unfortunately, we ran into a few unusual circumstances, mixed in generously with our own mistakes. But its still something we can build on.

Its hard to say, but this road trip was a win.


Health

Is Boozer healthy? He doesn't look like himself yet. What I'm really confused about is...how does a bum knee affect your hands? The dude has muffed so damn many passes and easy plays with unforced TOs that I've literally wanted to reach into the TV and straighten out the wrinkles on his head. Ultimately, though, if we want to be serious contenders, we have to have Boozer operating at 100%. He is getting back to hitting his fadeaway Js and converting more going to the basket. He's made progress, but I need to see more.


The bigger thing, though, is that Kyle Korver is now finally operating at max capacity. It has been a hugely underrated story line this year, but his wrist has hurt us nearly as bad as AK's ankle, Memo's back and maybe even Boozer's knee. Now that he's healthy, teams are seeing what a dangerous weapon he can be in this offense. I look for this to only get better.

Overall, this team is really starting to get a total cohesive healthiness that I seriously doubted would ever happen, and it is the reason why....


Contenders?

I say we are legit contenders. Not favorites. Definitely not in that stratosphere, as I seriously felt we would be going into this year. But it is certainly within the realm of plausibility to think we could knock off the Lakers and take the West.

We are as deep as any team in the league. Most nights our second unit is really a difference maker. We are versatile and dangerous in as many ways as any team in the league. We can play any type of game, and we can match up with any team.

Most people are still reeling from that devastating end to the road trip, so they don't want to hear this. But I think the Jazz could be poised to make a real leap here. Its not definite, and I certainly don't want to indicate that I am buying my Finals tickets here or anything, but I see a little something gestating here. And I think that something could be greatness.

*shrug*

Maybe I'm wrong

Good Post, and most of your posts are, but as a fan from the outside looking in. I could say that you were lucky against the Raptors, they had a decent lead heading into the 4th and choked that game away and it evened out when you played the Heat. I was impressed with the win in Indy. They have played top teams well at home and beaten most of the top teams in the league this season. When you guys took that game, I woke up and took a little more notice, but in the back of my mind I was still thinking they will drop off on this trip and you did. Eastern road trips aren't easy this time of the year, so to come off of that trip with a few wins is still a success. This is a tight race and teams 2-8/9 in the west are all pretty evenly matched.

[J_Ray]

When Utah have their swagger & Deron isn't bashful about attacking/scoring, Utah can beat anyone. But when Deron is passive & let's everyone else do their thing, that's when Utah doesn't seem right IMO. Deron is one of the best clutch players in the game if you ask me, and to see him pass up a shot @ the end of one of the OT's to feed Boozer somewhat was a surprise. The team obviously feeds off of Deron, and when he's playing with the killer instinct in his eyes, Utah is deadly. In road games, Deron just has to take things into his own hands sometimes to silence the crowd or stop the bleeding at some points on the road. With the East Coast dip out of the way & some western conference teams ahead of us, this is when Utah usually gets going.

[carrottop12]

When Utah have their swagger & Deron isn't bashful about attacking/scoring, Utah can beat anyone. But when Deron is passive & let's everyone else do their thing, that's when Utah doesn't seem right IMO. Deron is one of the best clutch players in the game if you ask me, and to see him pass up a shot @ the end of one of the OT's to feed Boozer somewhat was a surprise. The team obviously feeds off of Deron, and when he's playing with the killer instinct in his eyes, Utah is deadly. In road games, Deron just has to take things into his own hands sometimes to silence the crowd or stop the bleeding at some points on the road. With the East Coast dip out of the way & some western conference teams ahead of us, this is when Utah usually gets going.

Boozer is really throwing off the offense right now. They are forcing the ball to go through him and it isn't working quite yet. I think they are forcing it to get him back before the playoffs, but the reason the team has been better in fourth quarters (Miami Excluded) is because Boozer has been on the bench.

[J_Ray]

Boozer is really throwing off the offense right now. They are forcing the ball to go through him and it isn't working quite yet. I think they are forcing it to get him back before the playoffs, but the reason the team has been better in fourth quarters (Miami Excluded) is because Boozer has been on the bench.

Yeah, the only game that I've seen where he hasn't thrown off the offense that much was against Houston when he didn't get that much PT. Still, Deron is the man and he has to be the one to take the last shot, not be passing it up to feed Boozer. That decision gave Wade a chance to add another buzzer beater against Utah to his resume of greatness.

Utah needs more respect from the refs too, Deron doesn't get the same calls as other superstars & Brewer always gets jobbed against these other stars. Sloan needs to pull a Larry Brown

[MeestR]

2 years ago, with a visit to the WCF, the jazz were only a year away. last year, the lakers got in the way and the jazz were only a year away. this year was all cuz of the injuries. it seems the jazz again are just one year away. this year, the jazz can only do their best and try to get in the best position possible. but NEXT year....well, look out.

oh the life of the jazz fan........

[outerspacefella]

Postseason's the only real thing, and there you have to beat the better teams sooner or later. This team is not at such a level yet. They're not contenders. They're darn good yet not that good.
Boozer, Okur, Kirilenko and Millsap are not enough, they're just SOFT, and they're not the only ones if you ask me... take Harpring out of this team and you have a beatifull gummy bears set. It's just what they are, no fault there. It's the particular set of soft players what's separating us from a legit contender.
It's ok with me; I'll enjoy the ride no matter what.

[drivewayball]

I don't think Williams has been passing the ball well at all. He seems to be ignoring simple passes that will lead to layups and fouls and passing to perimeter shooters instead.

[drivewayball]

I don't think Williams has been passing the ball well at all. He seems to be ignoring simple passes that will lead to layups and fouls and passing to perimeter shooters instead.

[Soul Patch]

We need grit. I'm hoping Fesenko will turn in to the bad mutha who don't take no crap offa nobody.

[JDubJazz]

Nice post e23. I think the Jazz are headed for an early exit, though. I know this isn't a popular opinion on this board, but I really hope that neither Boozer or Millsap is starting for this team next year. Both of those guys are just good enough to get you beat. If I was Jazz management, I would be looking to move them both and get a PF who can play well against a tall, athletic opponent. As long as Jerry's offense revolves around the PG-PF pick-and-roll, we are kidding ourselves if we think we are legitimate contenders with our current roster.

I think the Jazz have the potential to do some real damage in the playoffs, and with a little luck, we could even make it back to the Western Finals, but we just do not have the length and speed to contend with the likes of the Lakers, Cavs or Celtics in a seven game series.

If we hadn't relegated Koufos to official towel boy, we would have a better chance against a few of these teams, because he has the length that Booz and Memo and Millsap so sorely lack. Does he make mistakes? yep. But as the Miami game proved, so do a lot of our veterans. We should have been developing him so that we have a legitimate post defender for the playoffs. No we are stuck with our same rotation of guys who are all just a little to small for their positions.

Also, can we FINALLY bench CJ Miles and Ronnie Brewer? Ronnie is a good player who deserves minutes, but Korver should be starting. AK should be starting. No one is respecting CJs or Ronnie's shots (even though they is getting better at making them) and it is killing our spacing. AK should be playing 35 minutes a game. CJ should be playing 5. Collins should be playing zero. Also, Brevin Knights inability to make any kind of shot is killing the subs. Its time to get Ronnie Price back on the court. Maybe I'm nuts (a distinct possibility), but I think we should have our best players on the floor for he most minutes (a novel concept, I know).

[jazzfan1971]

What I'm looking for is Boozer's slip move to the basket from the high post. That seemed to be his best move prior to his injury, but, I haven't hardly seen him even attempt it since returning.

Where did the slip move go?

[outerspacefella]

IMHO KK and AK should be starting, and Brewer shwould be getting big miniutes coming from the bench. Miles has had all the oportunities to take the next step nut he refuses to do so, so it seems to be tge right time to bench him and use him based on matchups against sub guards; may be that way he can succed based on his lenghth and athleticism.
And we need some interior lenght and grit for sure. Fesenko should be there available for some minutes... Collins' not playing anyway.....

[qman]

I agree with most of what was said in original post: I believe there are a couple of other factors.

First Boozer coming back and being inefficent has killed because A. boozer is playing bad, B. it pushing AK to SF and C. Harpring off the court.

I normally kill Harpring but he was playing well for several games in a row with a consistent role off the bench.

The other biggest factor is the bench unit of Knight, Korver, AK, Millsap and Okur/Collins hasn't been as good as our Knight,Korver,Harpring, AK and Millsap. The 2nd lineup is a quick lineup that can play pressure defense (remember Harpring at PF). Has 3 hustlers getting boards and just enough shooters on the floor. It is also very effective in the open floor. The first lineup doesn't get out and run because it has trouble getting stops.

[JStockLivesOn]

I think it's a monumental stretch to call this road trip a success, but I agree that it isn't the basis on which we should judge the team going down the stretch. I am concerned, though, about how poorly we played against Washington. Against any competent team, that wouldn't have been a blow-out -- probably not even a win.

KK has been playing out of his mind, and I love what I've seen from Brewer. AK is inconsistent right now from game to game, and Boozer hasn't found his way back yet. Deron, though playing at a very high level in general, is still making an awful lot of bad decisions with the ball. He talks a lot about getting his turnovers down, but hasn't put it into practice yet. He'll need to if we have any hope for a legitimate playoff run.

[erudite23]

Some excellent commentary so far, and a lot of good points have been made.

I am not surprised, JStock, to hear you call my assertion that the road trip was a success "a stretch".

Most Jazz fans, maybe even the vast majority of them, would disagree. I just think that we saw something out of this team that we've never seen. They controlled 4 straight games against a wide variety of opponents from the standpoint of skill level, composition and philosophy. At any point in each of those games, it was clear who the better team was by simply watching the game. The team never lost their focus, they never got rattled. At times, they just didn't have it going enough to produce the "W". That's fine. The best teams in the NBA have embarrassing road losses every year...and even the occasional home stinker. LA lost to Charlotte at home. SA continues to be beaten by Milwaukee every year on the road. The Cavs required an epic 4th quarter fail by the Clips to win their most recent tilt. It happens, even to the very best teams....and fairly often.

They haven't gotten there yet, but we know they have the ability. Its all mental/emotional/intangible stuff that is standing in our way. We've shown it. We've beaten the best teams in the league on the road. We just haven't shown consistency, and we haven't brought it against bad teams.

So, while the 2-3 record is a real disappointment. From a developmental standpoint I would have to say that we saw a very, very important step taken. Even if it doesn't quite show up as well in the win column. If I'm right, we'll look back in retrospect and everyone will realize that this was a key step. If not....*shrug*, all will be forgotten and we'll bitch about the next series of failures.


As to some of the other points being made, I do think that we have what it takes, right here, right now. Everyone has this idea in thier heads about what the prototype looks like. We've watched a decade of basketball that has been dominated by Shaq and Duncan, so everyone thinks you have to have a guy like that. I disagree. That is mostly after-the-fact re-making of history. You just have to be really, really good. I think the Suns could easily have been champions if not for a few twists of fate. The Mavs SHOULD have been champions. The Pistons were champions. The Bulls were, too.

We can be.



Also, thanks for the kind word, Buzzer. Nice to have you, and welcome to the board.

[carrottop12]

IMO the Jazz had to go at least 2-3 on the trip, anything else would have been a disaster. Now granted we should have gone 3-2 but some horrible things happened and it didn't work out that way.

I wouldn't rate it a success, but it wasn't a total loss.

What I would like to see the Jazz do is start to limit Boozer's touches. Make him get his points off of offensive rebounds and getting to the free-throw line.

17 foot jumpers aren't what we need from our power forward, especially when we have the best shooting Center in the league. Boozer needs to be playing 5-8 feet from the hoop at most, using his back to the basket game to get those easy lefty lay ups and get the other team into foul trouble.

Limit him to those post up opportunities and the pick and roll, and let the other players do the rest.

Boozer knows he needs to get his points for his contract, and he'll crash the boards to get them. The Jazz are best when Boozer isn't shooting jumpers, so simply take the opportunity away.

I'm also not opposed to tinkering with the line up a bit. I would love to shift around the Miles, Brewer, Korver, AK situation some, even if it's just for a couple of games to see if anything drastic happens. There is going to be a bit of give and take no matter what route you take, but it could be a nice expiriment before the playoffs come.

[ColdBlue]

I don't see Sloan pulling the plug on this, but I'm in the camp of starting Korver and limiting CJ's minutes off of the bench. It's not that I think CJ has completely sucked, but the opposite... I think he has made strides this year and could be poised to fill in a gap in the future.

As far as E23's original point on us being contenders...I'm not quite there yet, but wavering. I think we have a possibility of putting a nice run together if we are firing on all cylinders. I also think DW can go toe to toe with anyone in the 4th, and play champion caliber ball. I just hope that we have a few other guys that can contribute and not get gunshy in the big games. Memo? maybe... Booze... don't think so... Brew... not for a couple years... Korver... maybe.