Breaking down the Jazz roster so far (heavy on statistics)
Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2009 2:29 pm
Right now we are starting to get a clearer picture of what the Jazz roster will look like, even though there is still a lot of time left to find out exactly what happens with Millsap, Korver, Boozer, and Okur but I think now is one of the times where we should take stock. We just drafted two players who should fill roles for us as third-string backups but it looks like we still might need to get a small forward if one of Boozer/Millsap leaves and AK plays minutes at backup power forward.
I did a ton of digging for stats, so behind some of the nonsense you are going to find what is, IMO, really good stuff that really points out things about this team. Two things that I am going to warn you about now is how much Ronnie Price helps this team, and what we can do when Kyle Korver is hitting his shots and receiving starter's minutes.
--------------------------------------------Point Guard----------------------------------------------
Deron Williams 19p 3r 11a 1s 31% 3-pt
Ronnie Price 4p 1r 2a 1s 31% 3-pt
Eric Maynor 22p 4r 6a 2s 36% 3-pt (NCAA)
Williams is arguably the best point guard in the NBA. He can pass, score, and he plays a physical style that very few, if any point guards can match. There were a couple of big stories with Deron this year; the injury that caused him to miss 14 games, and the 8% drop in his three point field goal percentage. He also emerged as a better scorer and leader of the team--I think that last season was a major transition for him and that he is the unquestioned leader of the Jazz. When the team was doing well Williams routinely got 15+ assists--he also hit more clutch shots than I care to count.
I think Price has been severely underrated as a player on this forum and in the NBA. Sure, he is not the best backup point guard in the NBA, but he is not the worst either (that title belongs to Anthony Carter). He is a pure energy player, and just like he did in the playoffs last year (against Houston, and LA) he proved that he deserves a spot on an NBA team with a gutsy performance against a top NBA team (and this time it was the champion). With the decline of Matt Harpring Price is gradually starting to fill the role of energy player. As a starter Price was stellar in the stead of Deron Williams, averaging 8p 2r 4a 1s, shooting 38% from 3-pt and 94% from the free throw line with 26 mpg over a stretch that spanned 17 games. When he received consistent minutes Price produced, when he got more than 10 minutes we were 18-12 (3% improvement on win percentage for the season). With the absence of Knight this year (and possibly Korver) and the decline of Matt Harpring; Price will be receiving more minutes than ever--and he is going to produce.
Eric Maynor now is going to step in as our 3rd point guard, and possibly receive some minutes at shooting guard. Right now the only complaint that anyone could have about Maynor is his weight. He is 6-3 and only 164 pounds. For comparison Ronnie Price is 6-2 and 184 pounds. Eric has had gutsy performances against a lot of good teams, UCLA, Duke and George Mason are the most notable performances. He is a good shooter but does not have picture perfect form (not many players do), he is fairly quick and gets into the lane well. Outside of that though there is not much I know about him. I think Maynor can develop into a key player for this team and fill the role that Howard Eisley did in the John Stockton days.
When the Jazz go against Dallas, New Orleans, LA, Chicago and Boston we will have the advantage at the point guard position, no questions asked. The only playoff team that has a rotation we should be worried about is San Antonio with Tony Parker, George Hill, Jacque Vaughn and Nando De Colo. Parker is the only player in the NBA who consistently does well against Deron and I think that as backups Vuaghn and Hill are, for now, better than Price and Maynor.
-----------------------------------------Shooting Guard-------------------------------------------
Ronnie Brewer 14p 4r 2a 2s 70% FT 26% 3-pt
Kyle Korver 9p 3r 2a 1s 89% FT 39% 3-pt
Ronnie Price 4p 1r 2a 1s 31% 3-pt
The big story of the shooting guard position this year was its decline in efficency. Ronnie Brewer and Kyle Korver started off the season terribly, Brewer was only hitting 50% of his shots and Korver was forced into limited minutes and was only hitting 76% of his free throws. As the season wore on Brewer started to get better and better while Korver still was struggling with a wrist injury.
As soon as February hit though both players began to hit their stride, and lead this team to through a blistering 10-1 pace. Contrary to popular belief, it was not Deron alone who lead this team to that record (he averaged 23 and 11 through this stretch), it was the play of Ronnie Brewer and the emergence of Kyle Korver from his shooting slump. Brewer showed exactly what he is capable of, putting in an AK-47 like stat line, 18ppg 5rpg 2apg 2spg 1bpg. During this month he was aggressive and not afraid to pull up for the short 10-12 foot jumper, most of which he converted. Korver also did well, putting in 10 points on 38% shooting from 3-point land and shooting 100% from the free-throw line...
February was the only month of the season where we had a shooting guard rotation that could match up scoring-wise to the rest of the shooting guard rotations in the NBA. Despite Brewer's defense and Korver's shooting we still lack that scorer that can put this team over the top. No knock on the guys that we have, but when the other team is defending them there are only two things they have to do, with Brewer it is sag-off and force him to hit jump shots and with Korver it is play him tight and make him drive. Late in the season Kyle stepped up his game, and in my mind solidified himself as the "best-bet" coming into next year as a starter. He played scrappy, hit 100% of his free throws in February, shot 54% in March, and 51% from the three point line. When Korver has been able to score the Jazz are twice the team then when he isn't. We were 9-7 when he scores 15 points or more, but that does not tell the entire story. During every single one of those games he hit clutch shots, and kept us tight with the games best teams. Miami, Orlando, Cleveland and LA are among the teams that we lost against, but LA and Boston are among the teams he helped us to beat. In games were he shot 50% or more from 3 we were 23-12, in games where he shot between 40% and 50% we were 4-5 and in games where he shot below that total we were only 20-18--so all told when he shoots above 50% from 3 we have a 67% (10% improvement in win percentage on the season) chance of winning, otherwise we only have a 50% chance of winning. I know which sounds better to me. Another cool stat is that when he plays 24 minutes or more we are 25-17, which means we are better with him on the court than off of it (2% improvement in win-percentage on the season).
Our shooting guard position is not the worst in the NBA, but when you compare its production against the better teams in the NBA you have to question how we are going to win a championship as-is. It is going to take Korver getting back to where he was in Philadelphia (14p, 43% 3-pt) for it to not be so much of a problem. Next year Brewer hopefully will not be relied upon as heavily to be a primary scorer and he can go back to feeding off all of those baseline cuts and the attention that Boozer gets in the high post. If those two things happen I would be willing to call our shooting guard position average--but when Brewer and Korver are facing Kobe Bryant, Manu Ginobili, Tracy McGrady, Vince Carter, Eric Gordon, Ben Gordon and the likes don't expect them to out-perform their rivals, just to try and keep up with them.
-------------------------------------------Small Forward-------------------------------------------
CJ Miles 9p 2r 2a 1s 35% 3-pt 88% FT
Andrei Kirilenko 12p 5r 3a 1s 1b 28% 3-pt 79% FT
Matt Harpring 4p 2r .4a 11mpg
Here is where I am going to go off on a bit of a rant. CJ Miles is a crap player, he is too young to contribute, too selfish, needs to have the ball in his hands to score, is not a spot-up shooter, is not a good complimentary player--he's a lazy defender and he did not help the team. When he was off the floor we were a better team (28-19 when he plays under 20 minutes, 22-18 when he plays over 20 minutes). When he is off the floor we have a 5% better winning percentage. Miles has always been billed as the team's best "practice shooter", but somehow he has not brought that into games. I think he still has several years of development before he starts getting more than 15mpg. There was only one month during the entire season where Miles had multiple 20 point games, and if he is going to be a fixture on this team that is going to have to change. When motivated Miles can help us, but those moments seem to be very few and far-between. The only things he is to us right now are potential and depth--are those things good? Yes, but not 3.7 million dollars good.
Andrei Kirilenko is another over payed player, but unlike Miles he adds another dimension to our team, and when one of Boozer/Millsap leaves and he is getting power forward minutes he will be playing up to the expectations we (or just I) had of him, somewhere to the tune of 15 8 3 2 and 2, take off a point, add an assist, whatever, as long as it is better than 12 5 3 2 and 1. AK used to be the most versatile player in the NBA, and when he played in the Olympics he proved he still had every last bit of that talent that took what was supposed to be the worst team in NBA history to a 42 win season, and 1 victory over the Nuggets from the playoffs. From 2003-2004 to 2005-2006 Andrei was far-and-away the best player on our team, look for him to step up and become Deron's Robin (or a modern Pippen with less shooting ability and more defense). When Andrei scores 14 points or more we are 14-7, when he gets 2 blocks or more we are 15-4, when he gets 2 steals or more we are 16-10, when he has 6 rebounds or more we are 12-4, when he gets 4 assists or more we are 11-5......the point is that when Andrei "gets his touches" and is active we are a MUCH better team. And to further prove that CJ is not the answer at Small Forward, when AK gets 27 minutes or more we are 23-12. That is a big difference compared to what CJ Miles has given us. As soon as we can give Andrei 12-15 minutes at power forward, and another 15-18 at small forward he will be able to get more blocks, other teams will be more afraid of him, his field goal percentage will rise, his confidence will go up, and he will again be "The Cat Man".
During next season I hope to see Andrei and CJ both getting about 18 mpg at the small forward position and then have the other 12 go to Korver so he can get minutes next to Brewer (I feel that is when those two are most effective), or better yet move CJ to shooting guard and have Korver play small forward. If Harp is back then we will have to worry about minute distribution a little more, but it will be worth it if Matt can give us one more year of what he did last season. Harpring deserves one more run at the title with the Jazz before he goes off "into the Sunset". He gives this team a mean streak, and when he is in the rest of the team plays more physical and with more effort. I am not going to give any cool stats for Matt, he is our proven veteran, I just hope to see him back next year.
Comparing our small forward position to the rest of the NBA I think that we are actually pretty good. It is not our best position, but if Andrei gets his swagger back it is certainly top 5--really the only teams with better rotations are those where their best or second best player is a small forward--which really is not all that many teams. AK might have trouble with Richard Jefferson, and if we make it to the finals he has to deal with Hedo Turkoglu, Vince Carter, LeBron James, or Paul Pierce, but he has the ability to at minimum make life difficult for them--which gives us a lot better chance of winning. When Andrei was healthy during this season he played close to his old level (just needs some more blocks), but that was only for about 2/3rds of the season, and people always remember when you play bad rather than when you play well (see Carlos Boozer).
-------------------------------------------Power Forward------------------------------------------
Carlos Boozer 16p 10r 2a 1s
Paul Millsap 14p 8r 2a 1s 1b 53% FG
Andrei Kirilenko 12p 5r 3a 1s 1b 28% 3-pt 79% FT
The Jazz power forward position is one of the best in the NBA. Outside of Dallas (Dirk-Bass), Boston (KG, Davis, Powe) and San Antonio (Duncan-Bonner) no one can compete with us. That includes Phoenix with A'mare, Toronto with Bosh, and LA with Gasol. When we run our pick-and-role offense (which contrary to popular belief is less than 75% of NBA teams) we are an absolute deadly team. Carlos and Millsap were statistically the best power-forward duo for the past two years, and talent wise they compete with some of the best rotations in NBA HISTORY. If we can retain both that would be great, but in my mind if we keep only Carlos we are still up there with the NBA's best. Millsap? Not so much, I think I like the guy as much as any one on this forum, I have always said that he helped our team just as much as Boozer, but that was before the beginning of this NBA season when Boozer saved our team from being among the worst in the NBA without Deron.
To start the season Boozer pulled off a monster game, 25 points and 14 rebounds--then he kept that up through November. Carlos was like Tim Duncan on offense, reliable, did the right thing, didn't score in bunches very often but still had some fantastic stretches where he took over the team. In the month of November he averaged 20 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 assists and actually played, IMO, fantastic defense. There was the occasional push/grab, but he boxed out and played smart most of the time and was actually what I would consider above-average (only averaged 3 personal fouls per game, compared to 4 the rest of the season). And I don't think anyone will ever forget the fantastic performances he had against the Lakers, especially his 23 point, 22 rebound outburst. No one--and I mean no one could have stopped him that night, and that is the kind of play that Carlos can give us every-once in a while, the rest of the time he is his usual 20 and 12 self.
When Carlos scored 20 points or more during the season we were 9-5, without Deron and with Boozer we were 8-4, and Carlos started us off on a 5 game win streak to start the season.
I think that everyone in the NBA knows about Paul Millsap's 19 game double-double streak, and his perfect play in the absence of Boozer. Paul is an above average starter in the NBA, but has struggles against taller and longer players. During December Millsap averaged 19 points and 12 rebounds, then during January 16 and 11. When he was not injured Millsap was able to give us exactly what we needed from the power forward position. He made us forget Carlos for a while, but when he got banged up we started to remember the elite-level play that Boozer can give us. Carlos, Bosh, Duncan, KG and Dirk are the five best power forwards in the NBA, then you have the tier with Al Jefferson, Pau Gasol, Jamison and Brand--right below those players is Millsap's tier, along with guys like David Lee and LaMarcus Aldridge. All of them have the potential to get into the second tier, but I just don't see Paul giving us the same production that Boozer can (despite his obvious advantage in durability). Letting Millsap go would be dangerous since he is only 24 and just about to enter his prime (he is actually the same age as several rookies this year), but Carlos is a star so if we are forced to choose between the two our decision has to be Boozer. With Millsap playing 30 minutes or more we were 23-17 (57% win percentage, 2% below season mark), but had we had Boozer during that stretch I think that we would have been more like 26-14.
------------------------------------------------Center---------------------------------------------------
Mehmet Okur 17p 8r 2a 1s 1b 49% FG 45% 3-pt 82% FT
Kosta Koufos 5p 3r .4a 1b 51% FG
Kyrylo Fesenko 2p 2r .3a 1b 58% FG
Our center position is pretty unique compared to a lot of team in the NBA. Instead of having a big, bruising shot blocker we have Mehmet Okur, one of the best three point shooters in the NBA. He allows our offense to flow so much better than it would otherwise. There is no center in the NBA who shoots as well as Memo, and Dirk is the only big-man that comes close. When Okur is on our team does great, we were 26-9 when he scored 18 points or more, and 21-6 when he hit 2 or more three point shots. He was injured for part of the year, and his father died, but he was still able to help pick up the slack when Boozer was gone. When Memo does well, the Jazz do well.
Kosta Koufos was another revelation this year, he really helped the Jazz out when Boozer and Okur were out averaging 10p 7r 1a and 2b as a starter (7 games). Koufos has length, skill, athleticism and a mean streak that makes him into a better player. 3 seasons ago when Greg Oden came out he was supposed to be the best center Ohio State had had in the past 10 years, the truth is that Kosta Koufos matched Oden's production in college, and in the NBA has been able to flourish on one of the best teams.
The last player that I want to look at is Kyrylo Fesenko. During the month of December we finally called on his number and he actually produced to the tune of 6p 4r 1a and 2b in 14 minutes of play. I think that he proved that he can be a key part of this team if he is motivated. This year is the final season for him to prove himself before he is shipped out of the NBA, and I think that he will have an impact on this team and really help us.
The Jazz have had a lot of trouble in the past against teams with length, part of it was because our minutes at center were split between Mehmet Okur and Carlos Boozer. Next season we most likely will not have the luxury of having Boozer and Millsap, but that is going to open up minutes for Fesenko and Koufos, so we will have a lot more length on the court, and that is going to help us a lot if they play well. Matching up against the best centers in the NBA (Howard, Ming, O'neil) we are at a big disadvantage (as are most teams), but against the rest of the NBA our center position is better offensively than theirs. I think with Koufos and Fesenko getting more minutes it will also improve defensively and that fact will make us a much better team than we were last season.
To conclude, the Jazz seem to be their best when Williams, Price, Korver, Brewer, AK, Boozer, and Okur get their minutes; our core players (by the numbers) are Deron, Boozer, AK and Okur and our key role players are Brewer, Korver, Price and Millsap. We are better when CJ Miles gets less minutes (further proving my point that he is not ready to play major minutes) and when Kirilenko is active. Next year I would like to see Millsap and Boozer back, but if it doesn't happen then (again statistically) we have a good shot at actually being a better team which should come as a major shock to most people. I am not saying that will be the case, but Millsap just is not quite good enough to be the centerpiece of our offense--and he most likely never will be either. He can be a great third option, the best backup in the NBA, and an OK defender (not an enforcer but a great rebounder). Boozer is our first option, he is as good defensively as Paul and once he is back to normal along side Deron our team will be much better.
I think if we are able to add anyone to our roster it needs to be a guy who can shoot and play 10-12 minutes per game, preferably a small forward. We were the second worst three-point shooting team in the NBA (the worst being Minnesota). The 3-point shot is relied upon heavily by a lot of teams, and if we can't keep up in that category it is going to hurt us. Right now the only consistent shooters we have are Memo and Korver, and if one of them goes down opposing defenses only have to worry about defending one of them. A guy like Steve Novak could be a great addition to this team--or if we have the chance, Hedo Turkoglu.
I did a ton of digging for stats, so behind some of the nonsense you are going to find what is, IMO, really good stuff that really points out things about this team. Two things that I am going to warn you about now is how much Ronnie Price helps this team, and what we can do when Kyle Korver is hitting his shots and receiving starter's minutes.
--------------------------------------------Point Guard----------------------------------------------
Deron Williams 19p 3r 11a 1s 31% 3-pt
Ronnie Price 4p 1r 2a 1s 31% 3-pt
Eric Maynor 22p 4r 6a 2s 36% 3-pt (NCAA)
Williams is arguably the best point guard in the NBA. He can pass, score, and he plays a physical style that very few, if any point guards can match. There were a couple of big stories with Deron this year; the injury that caused him to miss 14 games, and the 8% drop in his three point field goal percentage. He also emerged as a better scorer and leader of the team--I think that last season was a major transition for him and that he is the unquestioned leader of the Jazz. When the team was doing well Williams routinely got 15+ assists--he also hit more clutch shots than I care to count.
I think Price has been severely underrated as a player on this forum and in the NBA. Sure, he is not the best backup point guard in the NBA, but he is not the worst either (that title belongs to Anthony Carter). He is a pure energy player, and just like he did in the playoffs last year (against Houston, and LA) he proved that he deserves a spot on an NBA team with a gutsy performance against a top NBA team (and this time it was the champion). With the decline of Matt Harpring Price is gradually starting to fill the role of energy player. As a starter Price was stellar in the stead of Deron Williams, averaging 8p 2r 4a 1s, shooting 38% from 3-pt and 94% from the free throw line with 26 mpg over a stretch that spanned 17 games. When he received consistent minutes Price produced, when he got more than 10 minutes we were 18-12 (3% improvement on win percentage for the season). With the absence of Knight this year (and possibly Korver) and the decline of Matt Harpring; Price will be receiving more minutes than ever--and he is going to produce.
Eric Maynor now is going to step in as our 3rd point guard, and possibly receive some minutes at shooting guard. Right now the only complaint that anyone could have about Maynor is his weight. He is 6-3 and only 164 pounds. For comparison Ronnie Price is 6-2 and 184 pounds. Eric has had gutsy performances against a lot of good teams, UCLA, Duke and George Mason are the most notable performances. He is a good shooter but does not have picture perfect form (not many players do), he is fairly quick and gets into the lane well. Outside of that though there is not much I know about him. I think Maynor can develop into a key player for this team and fill the role that Howard Eisley did in the John Stockton days.
When the Jazz go against Dallas, New Orleans, LA, Chicago and Boston we will have the advantage at the point guard position, no questions asked. The only playoff team that has a rotation we should be worried about is San Antonio with Tony Parker, George Hill, Jacque Vaughn and Nando De Colo. Parker is the only player in the NBA who consistently does well against Deron and I think that as backups Vuaghn and Hill are, for now, better than Price and Maynor.
-----------------------------------------Shooting Guard-------------------------------------------
Ronnie Brewer 14p 4r 2a 2s 70% FT 26% 3-pt
Kyle Korver 9p 3r 2a 1s 89% FT 39% 3-pt
Ronnie Price 4p 1r 2a 1s 31% 3-pt
The big story of the shooting guard position this year was its decline in efficency. Ronnie Brewer and Kyle Korver started off the season terribly, Brewer was only hitting 50% of his shots and Korver was forced into limited minutes and was only hitting 76% of his free throws. As the season wore on Brewer started to get better and better while Korver still was struggling with a wrist injury.
As soon as February hit though both players began to hit their stride, and lead this team to through a blistering 10-1 pace. Contrary to popular belief, it was not Deron alone who lead this team to that record (he averaged 23 and 11 through this stretch), it was the play of Ronnie Brewer and the emergence of Kyle Korver from his shooting slump. Brewer showed exactly what he is capable of, putting in an AK-47 like stat line, 18ppg 5rpg 2apg 2spg 1bpg. During this month he was aggressive and not afraid to pull up for the short 10-12 foot jumper, most of which he converted. Korver also did well, putting in 10 points on 38% shooting from 3-point land and shooting 100% from the free-throw line...
February was the only month of the season where we had a shooting guard rotation that could match up scoring-wise to the rest of the shooting guard rotations in the NBA. Despite Brewer's defense and Korver's shooting we still lack that scorer that can put this team over the top. No knock on the guys that we have, but when the other team is defending them there are only two things they have to do, with Brewer it is sag-off and force him to hit jump shots and with Korver it is play him tight and make him drive. Late in the season Kyle stepped up his game, and in my mind solidified himself as the "best-bet" coming into next year as a starter. He played scrappy, hit 100% of his free throws in February, shot 54% in March, and 51% from the three point line. When Korver has been able to score the Jazz are twice the team then when he isn't. We were 9-7 when he scores 15 points or more, but that does not tell the entire story. During every single one of those games he hit clutch shots, and kept us tight with the games best teams. Miami, Orlando, Cleveland and LA are among the teams that we lost against, but LA and Boston are among the teams he helped us to beat. In games were he shot 50% or more from 3 we were 23-12, in games where he shot between 40% and 50% we were 4-5 and in games where he shot below that total we were only 20-18--so all told when he shoots above 50% from 3 we have a 67% (10% improvement in win percentage on the season) chance of winning, otherwise we only have a 50% chance of winning. I know which sounds better to me. Another cool stat is that when he plays 24 minutes or more we are 25-17, which means we are better with him on the court than off of it (2% improvement in win-percentage on the season).
Our shooting guard position is not the worst in the NBA, but when you compare its production against the better teams in the NBA you have to question how we are going to win a championship as-is. It is going to take Korver getting back to where he was in Philadelphia (14p, 43% 3-pt) for it to not be so much of a problem. Next year Brewer hopefully will not be relied upon as heavily to be a primary scorer and he can go back to feeding off all of those baseline cuts and the attention that Boozer gets in the high post. If those two things happen I would be willing to call our shooting guard position average--but when Brewer and Korver are facing Kobe Bryant, Manu Ginobili, Tracy McGrady, Vince Carter, Eric Gordon, Ben Gordon and the likes don't expect them to out-perform their rivals, just to try and keep up with them.
-------------------------------------------Small Forward-------------------------------------------
CJ Miles 9p 2r 2a 1s 35% 3-pt 88% FT
Andrei Kirilenko 12p 5r 3a 1s 1b 28% 3-pt 79% FT
Matt Harpring 4p 2r .4a 11mpg
Here is where I am going to go off on a bit of a rant. CJ Miles is a crap player, he is too young to contribute, too selfish, needs to have the ball in his hands to score, is not a spot-up shooter, is not a good complimentary player--he's a lazy defender and he did not help the team. When he was off the floor we were a better team (28-19 when he plays under 20 minutes, 22-18 when he plays over 20 minutes). When he is off the floor we have a 5% better winning percentage. Miles has always been billed as the team's best "practice shooter", but somehow he has not brought that into games. I think he still has several years of development before he starts getting more than 15mpg. There was only one month during the entire season where Miles had multiple 20 point games, and if he is going to be a fixture on this team that is going to have to change. When motivated Miles can help us, but those moments seem to be very few and far-between. The only things he is to us right now are potential and depth--are those things good? Yes, but not 3.7 million dollars good.
Andrei Kirilenko is another over payed player, but unlike Miles he adds another dimension to our team, and when one of Boozer/Millsap leaves and he is getting power forward minutes he will be playing up to the expectations we (or just I) had of him, somewhere to the tune of 15 8 3 2 and 2, take off a point, add an assist, whatever, as long as it is better than 12 5 3 2 and 1. AK used to be the most versatile player in the NBA, and when he played in the Olympics he proved he still had every last bit of that talent that took what was supposed to be the worst team in NBA history to a 42 win season, and 1 victory over the Nuggets from the playoffs. From 2003-2004 to 2005-2006 Andrei was far-and-away the best player on our team, look for him to step up and become Deron's Robin (or a modern Pippen with less shooting ability and more defense). When Andrei scores 14 points or more we are 14-7, when he gets 2 blocks or more we are 15-4, when he gets 2 steals or more we are 16-10, when he has 6 rebounds or more we are 12-4, when he gets 4 assists or more we are 11-5......the point is that when Andrei "gets his touches" and is active we are a MUCH better team. And to further prove that CJ is not the answer at Small Forward, when AK gets 27 minutes or more we are 23-12. That is a big difference compared to what CJ Miles has given us. As soon as we can give Andrei 12-15 minutes at power forward, and another 15-18 at small forward he will be able to get more blocks, other teams will be more afraid of him, his field goal percentage will rise, his confidence will go up, and he will again be "The Cat Man".
During next season I hope to see Andrei and CJ both getting about 18 mpg at the small forward position and then have the other 12 go to Korver so he can get minutes next to Brewer (I feel that is when those two are most effective), or better yet move CJ to shooting guard and have Korver play small forward. If Harp is back then we will have to worry about minute distribution a little more, but it will be worth it if Matt can give us one more year of what he did last season. Harpring deserves one more run at the title with the Jazz before he goes off "into the Sunset". He gives this team a mean streak, and when he is in the rest of the team plays more physical and with more effort. I am not going to give any cool stats for Matt, he is our proven veteran, I just hope to see him back next year.
Comparing our small forward position to the rest of the NBA I think that we are actually pretty good. It is not our best position, but if Andrei gets his swagger back it is certainly top 5--really the only teams with better rotations are those where their best or second best player is a small forward--which really is not all that many teams. AK might have trouble with Richard Jefferson, and if we make it to the finals he has to deal with Hedo Turkoglu, Vince Carter, LeBron James, or Paul Pierce, but he has the ability to at minimum make life difficult for them--which gives us a lot better chance of winning. When Andrei was healthy during this season he played close to his old level (just needs some more blocks), but that was only for about 2/3rds of the season, and people always remember when you play bad rather than when you play well (see Carlos Boozer).
-------------------------------------------Power Forward------------------------------------------
Carlos Boozer 16p 10r 2a 1s
Paul Millsap 14p 8r 2a 1s 1b 53% FG
Andrei Kirilenko 12p 5r 3a 1s 1b 28% 3-pt 79% FT
The Jazz power forward position is one of the best in the NBA. Outside of Dallas (Dirk-Bass), Boston (KG, Davis, Powe) and San Antonio (Duncan-Bonner) no one can compete with us. That includes Phoenix with A'mare, Toronto with Bosh, and LA with Gasol. When we run our pick-and-role offense (which contrary to popular belief is less than 75% of NBA teams) we are an absolute deadly team. Carlos and Millsap were statistically the best power-forward duo for the past two years, and talent wise they compete with some of the best rotations in NBA HISTORY. If we can retain both that would be great, but in my mind if we keep only Carlos we are still up there with the NBA's best. Millsap? Not so much, I think I like the guy as much as any one on this forum, I have always said that he helped our team just as much as Boozer, but that was before the beginning of this NBA season when Boozer saved our team from being among the worst in the NBA without Deron.
To start the season Boozer pulled off a monster game, 25 points and 14 rebounds--then he kept that up through November. Carlos was like Tim Duncan on offense, reliable, did the right thing, didn't score in bunches very often but still had some fantastic stretches where he took over the team. In the month of November he averaged 20 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 assists and actually played, IMO, fantastic defense. There was the occasional push/grab, but he boxed out and played smart most of the time and was actually what I would consider above-average (only averaged 3 personal fouls per game, compared to 4 the rest of the season). And I don't think anyone will ever forget the fantastic performances he had against the Lakers, especially his 23 point, 22 rebound outburst. No one--and I mean no one could have stopped him that night, and that is the kind of play that Carlos can give us every-once in a while, the rest of the time he is his usual 20 and 12 self.
When Carlos scored 20 points or more during the season we were 9-5, without Deron and with Boozer we were 8-4, and Carlos started us off on a 5 game win streak to start the season.
I think that everyone in the NBA knows about Paul Millsap's 19 game double-double streak, and his perfect play in the absence of Boozer. Paul is an above average starter in the NBA, but has struggles against taller and longer players. During December Millsap averaged 19 points and 12 rebounds, then during January 16 and 11. When he was not injured Millsap was able to give us exactly what we needed from the power forward position. He made us forget Carlos for a while, but when he got banged up we started to remember the elite-level play that Boozer can give us. Carlos, Bosh, Duncan, KG and Dirk are the five best power forwards in the NBA, then you have the tier with Al Jefferson, Pau Gasol, Jamison and Brand--right below those players is Millsap's tier, along with guys like David Lee and LaMarcus Aldridge. All of them have the potential to get into the second tier, but I just don't see Paul giving us the same production that Boozer can (despite his obvious advantage in durability). Letting Millsap go would be dangerous since he is only 24 and just about to enter his prime (he is actually the same age as several rookies this year), but Carlos is a star so if we are forced to choose between the two our decision has to be Boozer. With Millsap playing 30 minutes or more we were 23-17 (57% win percentage, 2% below season mark), but had we had Boozer during that stretch I think that we would have been more like 26-14.
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Mehmet Okur 17p 8r 2a 1s 1b 49% FG 45% 3-pt 82% FT
Kosta Koufos 5p 3r .4a 1b 51% FG
Kyrylo Fesenko 2p 2r .3a 1b 58% FG
Our center position is pretty unique compared to a lot of team in the NBA. Instead of having a big, bruising shot blocker we have Mehmet Okur, one of the best three point shooters in the NBA. He allows our offense to flow so much better than it would otherwise. There is no center in the NBA who shoots as well as Memo, and Dirk is the only big-man that comes close. When Okur is on our team does great, we were 26-9 when he scored 18 points or more, and 21-6 when he hit 2 or more three point shots. He was injured for part of the year, and his father died, but he was still able to help pick up the slack when Boozer was gone. When Memo does well, the Jazz do well.
Kosta Koufos was another revelation this year, he really helped the Jazz out when Boozer and Okur were out averaging 10p 7r 1a and 2b as a starter (7 games). Koufos has length, skill, athleticism and a mean streak that makes him into a better player. 3 seasons ago when Greg Oden came out he was supposed to be the best center Ohio State had had in the past 10 years, the truth is that Kosta Koufos matched Oden's production in college, and in the NBA has been able to flourish on one of the best teams.
The last player that I want to look at is Kyrylo Fesenko. During the month of December we finally called on his number and he actually produced to the tune of 6p 4r 1a and 2b in 14 minutes of play. I think that he proved that he can be a key part of this team if he is motivated. This year is the final season for him to prove himself before he is shipped out of the NBA, and I think that he will have an impact on this team and really help us.
The Jazz have had a lot of trouble in the past against teams with length, part of it was because our minutes at center were split between Mehmet Okur and Carlos Boozer. Next season we most likely will not have the luxury of having Boozer and Millsap, but that is going to open up minutes for Fesenko and Koufos, so we will have a lot more length on the court, and that is going to help us a lot if they play well. Matching up against the best centers in the NBA (Howard, Ming, O'neil) we are at a big disadvantage (as are most teams), but against the rest of the NBA our center position is better offensively than theirs. I think with Koufos and Fesenko getting more minutes it will also improve defensively and that fact will make us a much better team than we were last season.
To conclude, the Jazz seem to be their best when Williams, Price, Korver, Brewer, AK, Boozer, and Okur get their minutes; our core players (by the numbers) are Deron, Boozer, AK and Okur and our key role players are Brewer, Korver, Price and Millsap. We are better when CJ Miles gets less minutes (further proving my point that he is not ready to play major minutes) and when Kirilenko is active. Next year I would like to see Millsap and Boozer back, but if it doesn't happen then (again statistically) we have a good shot at actually being a better team which should come as a major shock to most people. I am not saying that will be the case, but Millsap just is not quite good enough to be the centerpiece of our offense--and he most likely never will be either. He can be a great third option, the best backup in the NBA, and an OK defender (not an enforcer but a great rebounder). Boozer is our first option, he is as good defensively as Paul and once he is back to normal along side Deron our team will be much better.
I think if we are able to add anyone to our roster it needs to be a guy who can shoot and play 10-12 minutes per game, preferably a small forward. We were the second worst three-point shooting team in the NBA (the worst being Minnesota). The 3-point shot is relied upon heavily by a lot of teams, and if we can't keep up in that category it is going to hurt us. Right now the only consistent shooters we have are Memo and Korver, and if one of them goes down opposing defenses only have to worry about defending one of them. A guy like Steve Novak could be a great addition to this team--or if we have the chance, Hedo Turkoglu.