State of 'the Franchise'
Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:31 pm
All-right, the off season is still going on, but a lot of our questions have been answered, and new ones have come up. I am going to try and give my views on most of these issues, and see what other fans views are on the same subjects.
I. Do we have a "franchise player"
I think that the answer to this question is a lot less clear than people may think it is. Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer are certainly both superstars, and Deron just might be the best point guard in the NBA - but by definition a "franchise player" must be a player of a caliber of which if you build around him he can lead your team to a championship - not just to the finals. Therefor, I ask the question, who was the last point guard that lead their team to a championship? The answer - Magic Johnson in the 86-87 season, and 87-88 season. There are several point guards that have lead their teams to the finals, Jason Kidd did it several times in the early 2000s, Gary Payton did it in 1996 - but neither were good enough to win despite great supporting casts.
Conceivably Deron has to be able to play just as well as Magic Johnson in order to win a championship. I don't think he will be that good.
II. Do we have a 2nd "star" player?
The answer to this last year was an emphatic yes with our core of Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams - but this year it looks like Carlos is on his way out, and suddenly we have to wait for one of three candidates to fill his spot - Andrei Kirilenko, Paul Millsap, and Mehmot Okur. All of them have been, or have the potential to be players selected for the all-star game, but I don't think any of them can be lumped into the 2nd tier of star players that Carlos Boozer finds himself in. I think that two of these players are in what I would consider the 3rd tier - the best of the best in complimentary players (AK, Okur) - and Millsap will soon enter into that category.
III. Do we have the necessary 'role-players' to win a championship?
I think that at the beginning of last season everyone thought that we did have the necessary depth to compete for a championship - and we still have excellent role players - but with the possibility of Boozer leaving, the decline of Harpring, and the promotion of Paul Millsap we aren't quite there yet. I think that to prove us I am going to compare our bench to this year's Dallas Mavericks - a team arguably in the same position as us.
Dallas vs Utah:
JJ Barea - Ronnie Price
Advantage - Dallas
Erick Dampier - Kosta Koufos
Advantage - Dallas, for now
Drew Gooden - Andrei Kirilenko
Advantage - Utah
Jason Terry - Kyle Korver
Advantage - Dallas
Tim Thomas - CJ Miles
Advantage - They both suck, but Utah
Kyrylo Fesenko - Ryan Hollins
Advantage - Dallas
After looking at that it is not to promising for our Utah Jazz.
IV. New era, the third star.
Since Boston's acquisition of Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett there have been teams looking to have a tandem of three star players, or a "big-three". LA did not have any success either until they had a similarly talented beg three of Kobe, Pau Gasol, and Lamar Odom - with Ron Artest you could even call it a "Big Four". Orlando is now in a similar situation with Vince Carter, Dwight Howard, and Rashard Lewis. It can be argued though that the originators of the big three in this era are the San Antonio Spurs when they made their wonderful championship runs with Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili.
When we first got Carlos Boozer (mostly during 06-07) it looked like we were going to have the same type of system going with Andrei Kirilenko, Deron Williams, and Booz. What happened? Well, AK fell of the face of the earth, Carlos showed he has big flaws in his defensive game that a guy like Mehmot Okur can't make up for, and Deron was made to lead this team. That is not to undermine Carlos' talent - with a defensive force like Marcus Camby he wouldn't be such a liability - but Okur is also a great complimentary piece because of his shooting.
V. So who do we build around?
The obvious answer here is Deron Williams, but after that the complimentary pieces we have in place are somewhat questionable. I think it is time we ask ourselves which of our players are over-rated around the NBA, and which are undervalued. Using that system I think we can decide who should stay, and who could get us the pieces to become a championship contender.
Group A - Untouchable
Deron Williams ~ The best point guard in the NBA not named Chris Paul. Tough, gritty, a true competitor through and through.
Kosta Koufos ~ Prospects are always undervalued, and Kosta is one of the best in the NBA. Extremely long, gifted shot-blocker and scorer - hits open jump shots unlike most players his size.
Group B - On their way out
Carlos Boozer - Gifted scorer, extremely strong, great rebounder. Finishes with right or left hand and can get to the basket easily. Jumper is ugly but effective - if he is hitting it he becomes too complacent. Does not box-out well but still gets rebounds, foul prone, doesn't block shots.
Group C - Over-valued (trade pieces)
Ronnie Brewer ~ Fantastic role player, a true small forward. Capitalizes on attention payed to interior scorers. Extremely athletic, one of the better wing-defenders in the NBA. Relies too much on his athleticism, undersized, can't shoot.
Paul Millsap ~ Ultimate hustle player. Great defender against smaller power forwards - outmatched physically against larger ones but can still hold his position. Won't alter many shots - but if your center can Millsap will clean up after him and get the loose rebounds.
CJ Miles ~ Takes people one-on-one often and can occasionally capitalize. Above-average shooter but very streaky. Supreme athlete. Not efficient - defense is based on the challenge, doesn't always give 100%.
Group D - Under-rated (won't get the value they deserve)
Ronnie Price ~ Monster athlete, hustle player, extremely efficient when given minutes. Can play 1 or 2 guard despite his height. One of the fastest players in the NBA. Needs to work on being a 'floor-general', occasionally takes too many risks on defense. Doesn't hit enough threes despite nice form.
Eric Maynor ~ Gifted shooter, was a leader on the college level. Somewhat of an unknown at this point.
Andrei Kirilenko ~ Extremely long, good athleticism. Blocks shots at an alarming rate when he plays power forward. Best weak-side defender in NBA history. Can create a pass out of thin air, but can become turnover prone. Terrible 3-point shooter, below average jump-shooter for a small forward, OK for a power forward. Not enough muscle.
Kyle Korver ~ Better-than-advertised defender. Fantastic free-throw shooter, above average from three-point land. Very good passer, makes smart decisions, very high basketball IQ.
Kyrylo Fessenko ~ Fantastic size - moves well for his bulk. Can hit three point shots if he has to, good defender. Low basketball IQ and questionable motivation. Funniest player on the team (has to count for something).
Mehmot Okur ~ Best shooting big-man in the NBA, as good as Dirk at three-point shooting. Great size for power-forward position. Competes but is still inconsistent. Can drop 40 one night and 8 the next. Makes space for interior players to work.
I think that in order to become a championship contender we have to be able to do a couple of things
I. Turn 2 or more of our "over-rated" players into star players (preferably a center, or shot-blocking power forward)
II. Get a good package for Boozer (preferably including a good shooter).
III. Draft smart with the New York pick, or trade it for a "proven" star player.
I. Do we have a "franchise player"
I think that the answer to this question is a lot less clear than people may think it is. Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer are certainly both superstars, and Deron just might be the best point guard in the NBA - but by definition a "franchise player" must be a player of a caliber of which if you build around him he can lead your team to a championship - not just to the finals. Therefor, I ask the question, who was the last point guard that lead their team to a championship? The answer - Magic Johnson in the 86-87 season, and 87-88 season. There are several point guards that have lead their teams to the finals, Jason Kidd did it several times in the early 2000s, Gary Payton did it in 1996 - but neither were good enough to win despite great supporting casts.
Conceivably Deron has to be able to play just as well as Magic Johnson in order to win a championship. I don't think he will be that good.
II. Do we have a 2nd "star" player?
The answer to this last year was an emphatic yes with our core of Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams - but this year it looks like Carlos is on his way out, and suddenly we have to wait for one of three candidates to fill his spot - Andrei Kirilenko, Paul Millsap, and Mehmot Okur. All of them have been, or have the potential to be players selected for the all-star game, but I don't think any of them can be lumped into the 2nd tier of star players that Carlos Boozer finds himself in. I think that two of these players are in what I would consider the 3rd tier - the best of the best in complimentary players (AK, Okur) - and Millsap will soon enter into that category.
III. Do we have the necessary 'role-players' to win a championship?
I think that at the beginning of last season everyone thought that we did have the necessary depth to compete for a championship - and we still have excellent role players - but with the possibility of Boozer leaving, the decline of Harpring, and the promotion of Paul Millsap we aren't quite there yet. I think that to prove us I am going to compare our bench to this year's Dallas Mavericks - a team arguably in the same position as us.
Dallas vs Utah:
JJ Barea - Ronnie Price
Advantage - Dallas
Erick Dampier - Kosta Koufos
Advantage - Dallas, for now
Drew Gooden - Andrei Kirilenko
Advantage - Utah
Jason Terry - Kyle Korver
Advantage - Dallas
Tim Thomas - CJ Miles
Advantage - They both suck, but Utah
Kyrylo Fesenko - Ryan Hollins
Advantage - Dallas
After looking at that it is not to promising for our Utah Jazz.
IV. New era, the third star.
Since Boston's acquisition of Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett there have been teams looking to have a tandem of three star players, or a "big-three". LA did not have any success either until they had a similarly talented beg three of Kobe, Pau Gasol, and Lamar Odom - with Ron Artest you could even call it a "Big Four". Orlando is now in a similar situation with Vince Carter, Dwight Howard, and Rashard Lewis. It can be argued though that the originators of the big three in this era are the San Antonio Spurs when they made their wonderful championship runs with Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili.
When we first got Carlos Boozer (mostly during 06-07) it looked like we were going to have the same type of system going with Andrei Kirilenko, Deron Williams, and Booz. What happened? Well, AK fell of the face of the earth, Carlos showed he has big flaws in his defensive game that a guy like Mehmot Okur can't make up for, and Deron was made to lead this team. That is not to undermine Carlos' talent - with a defensive force like Marcus Camby he wouldn't be such a liability - but Okur is also a great complimentary piece because of his shooting.
V. So who do we build around?
The obvious answer here is Deron Williams, but after that the complimentary pieces we have in place are somewhat questionable. I think it is time we ask ourselves which of our players are over-rated around the NBA, and which are undervalued. Using that system I think we can decide who should stay, and who could get us the pieces to become a championship contender.
Group A - Untouchable
Deron Williams ~ The best point guard in the NBA not named Chris Paul. Tough, gritty, a true competitor through and through.
Kosta Koufos ~ Prospects are always undervalued, and Kosta is one of the best in the NBA. Extremely long, gifted shot-blocker and scorer - hits open jump shots unlike most players his size.
Group B - On their way out
Carlos Boozer - Gifted scorer, extremely strong, great rebounder. Finishes with right or left hand and can get to the basket easily. Jumper is ugly but effective - if he is hitting it he becomes too complacent. Does not box-out well but still gets rebounds, foul prone, doesn't block shots.
Group C - Over-valued (trade pieces)
Ronnie Brewer ~ Fantastic role player, a true small forward. Capitalizes on attention payed to interior scorers. Extremely athletic, one of the better wing-defenders in the NBA. Relies too much on his athleticism, undersized, can't shoot.
Paul Millsap ~ Ultimate hustle player. Great defender against smaller power forwards - outmatched physically against larger ones but can still hold his position. Won't alter many shots - but if your center can Millsap will clean up after him and get the loose rebounds.
CJ Miles ~ Takes people one-on-one often and can occasionally capitalize. Above-average shooter but very streaky. Supreme athlete. Not efficient - defense is based on the challenge, doesn't always give 100%.
Group D - Under-rated (won't get the value they deserve)
Ronnie Price ~ Monster athlete, hustle player, extremely efficient when given minutes. Can play 1 or 2 guard despite his height. One of the fastest players in the NBA. Needs to work on being a 'floor-general', occasionally takes too many risks on defense. Doesn't hit enough threes despite nice form.
Eric Maynor ~ Gifted shooter, was a leader on the college level. Somewhat of an unknown at this point.
Andrei Kirilenko ~ Extremely long, good athleticism. Blocks shots at an alarming rate when he plays power forward. Best weak-side defender in NBA history. Can create a pass out of thin air, but can become turnover prone. Terrible 3-point shooter, below average jump-shooter for a small forward, OK for a power forward. Not enough muscle.
Kyle Korver ~ Better-than-advertised defender. Fantastic free-throw shooter, above average from three-point land. Very good passer, makes smart decisions, very high basketball IQ.
Kyrylo Fessenko ~ Fantastic size - moves well for his bulk. Can hit three point shots if he has to, good defender. Low basketball IQ and questionable motivation. Funniest player on the team (has to count for something).
Mehmot Okur ~ Best shooting big-man in the NBA, as good as Dirk at three-point shooting. Great size for power-forward position. Competes but is still inconsistent. Can drop 40 one night and 8 the next. Makes space for interior players to work.
I think that in order to become a championship contender we have to be able to do a couple of things
I. Turn 2 or more of our "over-rated" players into star players (preferably a center, or shot-blocking power forward)
II. Get a good package for Boozer (preferably including a good shooter).
III. Draft smart with the New York pick, or trade it for a "proven" star player.