That got me wondering how the Jazz stack relatively so I busted out the spreadsheet. I don't know if the numbers mean much but here they are....
- The teams the Jazz have lost to have an average winning % of .568
(Nuggets x3, Rockets, Mavericks, Kings, Celtics, Cavaliers, Thunder x2, Minnesota x2, Lakers, Hawks, Magic, Heat, Hornets, Grizzlies)
- The teams the Jazz have won against have an average winning % of .496
- Total winning % for teams the Jazz have played this season is .527
- The remaining teams on the Jazz schedule have an average winning % of .505
So on average, the schedule gets easier through the back half of the season. Assuming the Jazz manage to win games at their current rate through the remainder of the season, they project to have a record of 47-35. How does that compare to last year? It is one game behind last year's pace of 48-34. So one might expect last year's result in the standings too, right?
Maybe not. Here is how teams current winning % stands vs. their winning % last year:
Indicative of parity in the league, the biggest improvement belongs to the teams at the bottom of the west last year:
Thunder - +29.1% - 1 more win after 42 games than they managed in 82 last year
Grizzlies - +24.4% - 2 games shy of last year's 24 win mark already
Clippers - +23.1% - Hard to believe improving 23% in wins still keeps you in the bottom 2 in the west
Kings - +15.9% - Also 2 wins from last year's mark of 15 wins
These teams also are managing to win at or better than last year's pace:
Mavericks - +5.7% - Could improve on their 50 wins last year
Suns - +2% - Projecting at 1.6 wins better than last year so far
Nuggets - +0.0% - Same as last year
These teams are slipping from last year’s winning %:
Jazz - -1.4% - Holding steady – only about 1 game off last year
Lakers - -3.1% - As good as they are, their pace has slowed
Spurs - -4.9% - Sliding a bit but not much
Trailblazers - -5.4% - Amazing in spite of all the injuries
Warriors - -5.4% - Started much lower than the Blazers…
Hornets - -6.1 % - This slide could jeopardize their return to the playoffs in 2010
Timberwolves - -8.4% - Still looking for that 10th win
Rockets - -8.5% - The biggest loser in the west, they’ve slipped but not dropped like a stone
So what about the Eastern Conference?
Wizards - +10.9%
Bobcats - +9.8%
Hawks - +8.6%
Raptors - +8.6%
Knicks - +2.5%
Bucks - +1%
Heat - -1.2%
Bulls - -5%
Cavaliers - -5.5%
Magic - -7.7%
Celtics - -8.1%
Pacers - -10.6
Pistons - -11%
76ers - -18.3%
Nets - -34.2%
In summary, it looks like the west is getting tighter with the top teams slowing a bit and some teams that finished poorly last year showing improvement. All in all, it’s nice to see the Jazz hanging in there. I hope to not see any dramatic trades or the chemistry disruption could knock the legs right out of any playoff hopes this year. Personally I'd like to see how they fare even if they enter as the 8th seed.
The east is a bit more of an anomaly with teams showing smaller improvements but bigger drop-offs.
Ok, I’m putting my slide rule back in my pocket protector now….
