Hollinger's Per Diem 03/25/10
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2010 8:03 pm
"As predictable as this season has been so far, we might be in for a change as we head into the postseason. Oh, not in the East, where things couldn't be any chalkier: Orlando and Cleveland seem destined for a battle royale in the conference finals, and it's likely that the only drama between now and then will come when either the Hawks or Celtics meet Milwaukee in the first round.
Out West, however, it's a different story. The Lakers are running away with the top seed, leading No. 2 Dallas by six games. But that masks a new West reality: A postseason that once appeared to be the Laker Invitational now seems to be anyone's game.
That's partly because the Lakers have looked increasingly beatable. Aside from an Achilles injury to Andrew Bynum, L.A. has also been reasonably healthy -- at least, as healthy as their main competitors. Yet their play since the All-Star break has been a bit uninspired.
You don't believe me? Consider that the Lakers are 12-5 since the All-Star break despite playing a steady procession of bottom-feeders. In that span, L.A. has played Golden State twice, Sacramento, Indiana, Philadelphia, Minnesota and Washington. They won six of those seven games by more than 10 points. But in the 10 games against real teams, they're 5-5 with a negative scoring margin.
Over the most recent quarter of their schedule, the Lakers are only ninth in scoring margin, despite playing a fairly soft schedule. Similarly, they are only a hundredth of a point for the season ahead of Utah in scoring margin. L.A. once led the category handily, but the Jazz likely will overtake the Lakers this weekend when they play Indiana and Washington.
That's where we get to the other interesting part of this story. In the search for potential rivals for L.A., most folks have been looking in the wrong places. Denver, the presumptive No. 2 in the West, looks considerably weaker since Kenyon Martin's knee problems knocked him out of the lineup. Denver is just 8-6 in its past 14 games and has dropped three straight, and the health problems of coach George Karl provide another challenge heading into the playoffs.
As a result, the Nuggets are down to No. 7 in the Power Rankings, and they project to finish somewhere between second and fifth in the West. The "fifth" part is what should raise eyebrows in Denver. If the Nuggets lose at Phoenix in their last game of the season, both the Suns and Mavericks will own tiebreakers over Denver and could push the Nuggets down in the event of a tie. As of Thursday, they project to finish one game ahead -- an uncomfortably small margin given their current state.
The other Western hopeful to garner a lot of national attention has been Dallas. I won't belabor the point here, since I've made it repeatedly already, but suffice it to say that I remain skeptical of the Mavs' credentials in this department.
So if the Lakers are vulnerable, but the Nuggets and Mavs aren't playing well enough to beat them, then who will? Believe it or not, the best chances come from three teams long dismissed as legitimate contenders.
Let's start with San Antonio. Yes, San Antonio. I realize Wednesday night's second half didn't do wonders for the idea that the Spurs can make a run in the West, but check out the big picture. San Antonio has won 10 of its last 14 against a difficult schedule and did most of the damage without an injured Tony Parker. At full strength, the Spurs were good enough to the beat the Lakers by 20 in January; in fact, until Wednesday, they were ahead of the Lakers in the Power Rankings. The recent struggles of Tim Duncan are worrisome, but after 60 games of scuffling, San Antonio seems to be hitting its stride.
Another stronger-than-advertised hopeful is Phoenix. With Amare Stoudemire averaging almost 30 points and 10 rebounds in March, Robin Lopez providing an inside presence and the bench performing far better than expected, the Suns have been quietly rolling. Phoenix is 19-5 in its past 24 games even though Steve Nash has been battling back problems and has not played up to his usual standards (Nash hasn't scored more than 20 points since Feb. 5 and has only made eight 3-pointers in March). The 24-game stretch includes 11 double-figure wins and not a single double-figure loss.
The Suns are playing well enough that they may elbow their way to a top-four seed (although Dallas likely will have the tiebreaker if its wins the Southwest Division). While the Suns' credentials as "serious hopefuls" depend on Nash's reverting to form, they're playing too well of late to be ignored.
And then there's Utah. Why the Jazz continue to be dismissed as a serious contender is beyond me, because they're playing as well as any team in basketball and have been for three months.
The Jazz are 28-8 in their past 36 games and have done it despite numerous injuries. Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams, Andrei Kirilenko and Mehmet Okur have all missed time, but the Jazz haven't missed a beat. Utah has the West's best scoring margin over the last quarter of teams' schedules and will soon have the league's best margin.
Utah currently stands tied for third in the Western Conference, but with a fairly friendly closing schedule and just a half-game to make up on No. 2 Dallas, I'm projecting them to finish with 54 wins and the West's second seed.
Based on Thursday's Playoff Odds, I'm also projecting Phoenix to land the fifth seed and the Spurs to finish in the No. 8 spot because they lose the tiebreaker Portland.
This has to be of some concern if you're a Lakers fan, as the Lakers may have to run the gauntlet of the West's three best teams at the moment. All three can make a case they're playing better basketball than the Lakers right now (although San Antonio's claim was dented a bit Wednesday night), and each has had injury problems at least as bad as L.A.'s.
Thus, it's time to rethink our outlook on the Western Conference race. If you're expecting the West to be the Lakers' to win, or that the Nuggets and Mavs are the two teams with the best hopes of upsetting the apple cart in the West, think again. I still expect L.A. to be one of the last two teams left standing in the conference, but I'm not nearly as secure in this opinion as I was six weeks ago. So if it turns out that we get something like Utah-Phoenix in the conference finals instead, don't say you weren't warned."
Interesting stuff
Out West, however, it's a different story. The Lakers are running away with the top seed, leading No. 2 Dallas by six games. But that masks a new West reality: A postseason that once appeared to be the Laker Invitational now seems to be anyone's game.
That's partly because the Lakers have looked increasingly beatable. Aside from an Achilles injury to Andrew Bynum, L.A. has also been reasonably healthy -- at least, as healthy as their main competitors. Yet their play since the All-Star break has been a bit uninspired.
You don't believe me? Consider that the Lakers are 12-5 since the All-Star break despite playing a steady procession of bottom-feeders. In that span, L.A. has played Golden State twice, Sacramento, Indiana, Philadelphia, Minnesota and Washington. They won six of those seven games by more than 10 points. But in the 10 games against real teams, they're 5-5 with a negative scoring margin.
Over the most recent quarter of their schedule, the Lakers are only ninth in scoring margin, despite playing a fairly soft schedule. Similarly, they are only a hundredth of a point for the season ahead of Utah in scoring margin. L.A. once led the category handily, but the Jazz likely will overtake the Lakers this weekend when they play Indiana and Washington.
That's where we get to the other interesting part of this story. In the search for potential rivals for L.A., most folks have been looking in the wrong places. Denver, the presumptive No. 2 in the West, looks considerably weaker since Kenyon Martin's knee problems knocked him out of the lineup. Denver is just 8-6 in its past 14 games and has dropped three straight, and the health problems of coach George Karl provide another challenge heading into the playoffs.
As a result, the Nuggets are down to No. 7 in the Power Rankings, and they project to finish somewhere between second and fifth in the West. The "fifth" part is what should raise eyebrows in Denver. If the Nuggets lose at Phoenix in their last game of the season, both the Suns and Mavericks will own tiebreakers over Denver and could push the Nuggets down in the event of a tie. As of Thursday, they project to finish one game ahead -- an uncomfortably small margin given their current state.
The other Western hopeful to garner a lot of national attention has been Dallas. I won't belabor the point here, since I've made it repeatedly already, but suffice it to say that I remain skeptical of the Mavs' credentials in this department.
So if the Lakers are vulnerable, but the Nuggets and Mavs aren't playing well enough to beat them, then who will? Believe it or not, the best chances come from three teams long dismissed as legitimate contenders.
Let's start with San Antonio. Yes, San Antonio. I realize Wednesday night's second half didn't do wonders for the idea that the Spurs can make a run in the West, but check out the big picture. San Antonio has won 10 of its last 14 against a difficult schedule and did most of the damage without an injured Tony Parker. At full strength, the Spurs were good enough to the beat the Lakers by 20 in January; in fact, until Wednesday, they were ahead of the Lakers in the Power Rankings. The recent struggles of Tim Duncan are worrisome, but after 60 games of scuffling, San Antonio seems to be hitting its stride.
Another stronger-than-advertised hopeful is Phoenix. With Amare Stoudemire averaging almost 30 points and 10 rebounds in March, Robin Lopez providing an inside presence and the bench performing far better than expected, the Suns have been quietly rolling. Phoenix is 19-5 in its past 24 games even though Steve Nash has been battling back problems and has not played up to his usual standards (Nash hasn't scored more than 20 points since Feb. 5 and has only made eight 3-pointers in March). The 24-game stretch includes 11 double-figure wins and not a single double-figure loss.
The Suns are playing well enough that they may elbow their way to a top-four seed (although Dallas likely will have the tiebreaker if its wins the Southwest Division). While the Suns' credentials as "serious hopefuls" depend on Nash's reverting to form, they're playing too well of late to be ignored.
And then there's Utah. Why the Jazz continue to be dismissed as a serious contender is beyond me, because they're playing as well as any team in basketball and have been for three months.
The Jazz are 28-8 in their past 36 games and have done it despite numerous injuries. Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams, Andrei Kirilenko and Mehmet Okur have all missed time, but the Jazz haven't missed a beat. Utah has the West's best scoring margin over the last quarter of teams' schedules and will soon have the league's best margin.
Utah currently stands tied for third in the Western Conference, but with a fairly friendly closing schedule and just a half-game to make up on No. 2 Dallas, I'm projecting them to finish with 54 wins and the West's second seed.
Based on Thursday's Playoff Odds, I'm also projecting Phoenix to land the fifth seed and the Spurs to finish in the No. 8 spot because they lose the tiebreaker Portland.
This has to be of some concern if you're a Lakers fan, as the Lakers may have to run the gauntlet of the West's three best teams at the moment. All three can make a case they're playing better basketball than the Lakers right now (although San Antonio's claim was dented a bit Wednesday night), and each has had injury problems at least as bad as L.A.'s.
Thus, it's time to rethink our outlook on the Western Conference race. If you're expecting the West to be the Lakers' to win, or that the Nuggets and Mavs are the two teams with the best hopes of upsetting the apple cart in the West, think again. I still expect L.A. to be one of the last two teams left standing in the conference, but I'm not nearly as secure in this opinion as I was six weeks ago. So if it turns out that we get something like Utah-Phoenix in the conference finals instead, don't say you weren't warned."
Interesting stuff