Not an OKC fan - but I have to vent about the Harden trade

[Durins Baynes]

The fact you don't rate Presti enough to even know what teams told him makes you almost not worth a reply.

We know Presti tried to get Beal and Klay, among others. He was offering Harden for a high pick in the 2012 draft... nobody was biting. So your theory is dumb.

[NaturalThunder]

It was plausible. Per usual, you simply aren't familiar with the topic you're discussing.

But here’s the real killer. Multiple sources have told me that, when Oklahoma City’s Sam Presti decided to shop James Harden, Golden State was his first call. He wanted Klay Thompson and a pick. The Warriors would only consider the trade if Oklahoma City took back Biedrins or Jefferson for 2013 expirings, knowing they’d get crushed by the luxury tax in 2014 with Harden’s extension plus Steph Curry’s extension plus David Lee plus Bogut/Jefferson/Biedrins.13 At that point, Presti went to Washington (offering Harden for Bradley Beal, and unbelievably getting turned down), then Houston (where the shopping heated up). [b]Presti never ended up calling Golden State back.

http://thehoopdoctors.com/online2/2013/ ... es-harden/

On the other hand, Presti could have sat on Harden until the trade deadline, allowing him to generate more value(Harden now has more value than any of the above players) while also giving himself more leverage in trade discussions, and more time to accept and contemplate package proposals.


Also, Washington is Washington for a reason.

Huh? That says nothing about a big man. It says, almost word for word, the exact same thing I said.

And if you sit on a player until the deadline, just hoping he generates more value, then dealing him, you're leaving yourself a month and change to integrate the new pieces into the lineup/rotation for the playoffs. That's risky.

[Chalky White]

Huh? That says nothing about a big man. It says, almost word for word, the exact same thing I said.

And if you sit on a player until the deadline, just hoping he generates more value, then dealing him, you're leaving yourself a month and change to integrate the new pieces into the lineup/rotation for the playoffs. That's risky.

I misread your post. Perhaps because I stumbled upon the illogical fallacy in assuming that because Sam Presti did not opt to negotiate with Golden State, or that a poorly run franchise in Washington made a horrendous decision in opting to keep Beal in lieu of OKC's proposal, that OKC therefore could not have shopped him elsewhere for a big.


Not sure how your end response is relevant. Presti has dealt players at the deadline before.

[NaturalThunder]

Huh? That says nothing about a big man. It says, almost word for word, the exact same thing I said.

And if you sit on a player until the deadline, just hoping he generates more value, then dealing him, you're leaving yourself a month and change to integrate the new pieces into the lineup/rotation for the playoffs. That's risky.

I misread your post. Perhaps because I stumbled upon the illogical fallacy in assuming that because Sam Presti did not opt to negotiate with Golden State, or that a poorly run franchise in Washington made a horrendous decision in opting to keep Beal in lieu of OKC's proposal, that OKC therefore could not have shopped him elsewhere for a big.

Your suggestions were for All-Star caliber big men like Horford, Aldridge, or Noah; and two young big men with a lot of potential in Monroe and Drummond. So no, my logic wasn't flawed, because if we couldn't get Klay Thompson or a rookie for Harden, it's pretty safe to say we couldn't have gotten an All-Star caliber big man for Harden.

Not sure how your end response is relevant. Presti has dealt players at the deadline before.

When has he traded an integral part of the team at the deadline in a season he expected us to win the championship or at least make a run at the championship? Because there's a big difference in trading a small piece at the deadline in a championship year, or trading a "core" piece like Green in a building year, than there is in trading a key piece mid-season in a year you're making a run at best record in the West, which would've been the case this year.

[Chalky White]

Your suggestions were for All-Star caliber big men like Horford, Aldridge, or Noah; and two young big men with a lot of potential in Monroe and Drummond. So no, my logic wasn't flawed, because if we couldn't get Klay Thompson or a rookie for Harden, it's pretty safe to say we couldn't have gotten an All-Star caliber big man for Harden.

FIrstly, you don't know whether or not OKC could have gotten Thompson because the Thunder chose not to negotiate in lieu of packages Presti believed more appropriate. Secondly, Golden State nor Washington dictate Harden's market value, so even we were to assume that those two franchises did not realize his worth, that does not necessitate that the remaining 28 franchises would value him similarly. Hence the reason you shop, but Mr. Presti was in a rush to deal Harden, for whatever reason, ultimately handicapping his leverage. Thirdly, if Presti so undervalued Harden that the above were the only packages he felt he could get for a 22 year old SG with Harden's level of talent, than that emphasizes his incompetence. James is one of the most valuable pieces in the NBA.

However, It is more likely, given the evidence that discussions took place with three franchises, and the center piece of each of those packages was a SG, that Presti was looking for a young perimeter player on a rookie contract(cheap) and never shopped for a big.

When has he traded an integral part of the team at the deadline in a season he expected us to win the championship or at least make a run at the championship? Because there's a big difference in trading a small piece at the deadline in a championship year, or trading a "core" piece like Green in a building year, than there is in trading a key piece mid-season in a year you're making a run at best record in the West, which would've been the case this year.

He obviously did not believe the talent in question was the difference between OKC making a run at a championship or not, so unless that would have changed by the deadline, I'm still not seeing the relevance in your point. And I repeat; he's made trades at the deadline before, your arbitrary stipulations be damned.

[NaturalThunder]

Firstly, you don't know whether or not OKC could have gotten Thompson

Nor do you know if they could've gotten him. There's more evidence pointing towards "couldn't have gotten him" than there is pointing at "could've gotten him".

because the Thunder chose not to negotiate in lieu of packages Presti believed more appropriate.

They wanted us to take on either the terrible contract of Jefferson or Biedrins, who both had another season remaining on their contracts, if they gave us Klay for Harden. It's not hard to figure out that's a terrible deal. What other options did he have if that's what they wanted?

Secondly, Golden State nor Washington dictate Harden's market value, so even we were to assume that those two franchises did not realize his worth, that does not necessitate that the remaining 28 franchises would value him similarly. Hence the reason you shop, but Mr. Presti was in a rush to deal Harden, for whatever reason, ultimately handicapping his leverage. Thirdly, if Presti so undervalued Harden that the above were the only packages he felt he could get for a 22 year old SG with Harden's level of talent, than that emphasizes his incompetence.

I'm guessing Houston was the third team he called, no? He liked the deal and took it. But you're insinuating that he could've somehow gotten an All-Star caliber big like Horford, Noah, or Aldridge, or young bigs with a lot of potential (and bigs like that will always have more valuable than guards) like Drummond or Monroe is ignorant and baseless. I'm at least basing my belief on something that happened: if we couldn't get Klay Thompson or Beal for Harden, there's absolutely no way in hell a team was going to part with an All-Star caliber big or a young big with good potential for Harden.

But I guess it makes it easier for you to pompously sit atop your ivory tower and smirk and belittle Prest and the FO for not asking the Blazers if they'd give us Aldridge for Harden, or the Bulls if they'd give us Noah for Harden; which is a HUGE leap from the rejected trades -- that actually happened -- that couldn't net us Thompson and Beal.

James is one of the most valuable pieces in the NBA.

At the time of the trade? Absolutely not.

However, It is more likely, given the evidence that discussions took place with three franchises, and the center piece of each of those packages was a SG, that Presti was looking for a young perimeter player on a rookie contract(cheap) and never shopped for a big.

Probably not, but that doesn't mean he could've netted someone like Horford, Aldridge, Noah, Drummond, or Monroe for Harden. All of those options would've been very unlikely. But he wasn't looking for a big, so what? It's clear his intention was to try and replace Harden's absence as a bench scoring guard with another player with at least similar ability to produce in that role. If not, then our only guards coming off the bench would've been Maynor or Reggie, and...Liggins? Whether you like it or not, I think Presti was set and fine with our frontcourt rotation of Ibaka, Collison, Perkins, and Thabeet, not to mention Durant's ability to slide over and play in the frontcourt.

If you trade Harden for a big, you're left with a very weak backcourt rotation, unless you get another serviceable backcourt bench player in the same trade. Presti got a one year holdover, a potential replacement who was a lottery pick, and another future lottery pick.

He obviously did not believe the talent in question was the difference between OKC making a run at a championship or not, so unless that would have changed by the deadline, I'm still not seeing the relevance in your point.

How are you not getting this? You sit on Harden until the deadline and then trade him, you then have to integrate the new pieces and hope they mesh almost seamlessly, and you have a little over a month to do it before the playoffs start. It doesn't mean he didn't think Harden wasn't the difference in winning a championship or not. I think he just knew that once Harden rejected the 4yr/$55M deal, keeping him wasn't happening (within their price range), and decided to get the deal done now so the team could work out the kinks with the new players sooner rather than later. And guess what? It worked. OKC's offensive numbers were up across the board, they won 60 games, and finished 1st in the West. And if it wasn't for a freak injury, there's a decent chance they're back in the Finals.

And I repeat; he's made trades at the deadline before, your arbitrary stipulations be damned.

Arbitrary? So context means absolutely nothing to you? Are you so blinded by your disdain for Presti and OKC"s FO that you can't see the difference in trading a player like Green in a season we were just fighting to even make the playoffs, than trading a player like Harden when the team is on their way to 60+ wins and the 1-seed in the West? Because there's a difference, and not all deadline trades and deadline situations/scenarios are equal.

[Podirk]

A steal? Please. It would have upgraded a terrible trade to a bad trade maybe.

Your right! If only we could have traded for Dunleavy Jr and Tobias Harris..championships here we come..now we will barely limp into the playoffs(sarcastic font).

I would have settled for a competent big man. Say; Andre Drummond(not a stretch, hadn't seen the court), or even a Greg Monroe, Al Horford, Kenneth Faried, Lemarcus Aldridge, Joakim Noah, or anyone that can catch and score at the 5 spot.

No sarcasm.

a competent big man is worth more than a competent guard. Big men get grossly overpaid. At that time I don't reme
Mover any of these players being on the block or in rumors...though I am excited to see Adams progress, hopefully, this year.

[Podirk]

Just so we are clear we are talking about trading 2012 Harden right? The one who showed flashes of brilliance...as a 6th man. The one who could come up big one night!...and look like daequan cook the next.

It seems some like to look back at the trade and incision 2013 Harden instead of 2012 Harden.

[Podirk]

Just so we are clear we are talking about trading 2012 Harden right? The one who showed flashes of brilliance...as a 6th man. The one who could come up big one night!...and look like daequan cook the next.

It seems some like to look back at the trade and incision 2013 Harden instead of 2012 Harden.

[wizkid27]

Just so we are clear we are talking about trading 2012 Harden right? The one who showed flashes of brilliance...as a 6th man. The one who could come up big one night!...and look like daequan cook the next.

It seems some like to look back at the trade and incision 2013 Harden instead of 2012 Harden.

I don't disagree with you guys entirely about the Harden trade being the right decision, but this line gets WAY more credit than it deserves. Harden was WIDELY considered one of the top let's say 5 SGs in the league even after a disappointing appearance in the finals. Heading into the finals, he was so widely respected that I heard SEVERAL people discussing if this was a changing of the guard (nice pun huh?) in that Harden may overtake Wade as the single BEST SG IN THE LEAGUE. He was not somebody seen as a rising star than may or may not pan out. After the Finals there was a slight shadow cast on him making it as a superstar because of his disappointing performance, but other than that he should have been viewed as a completely legit star for trading purposes by both sides.

[JonFromVA]

A lot of attention on the Thunder was focused on Westbrook and Durant. Nobody knew what Harden was going to be able to do as the first option on a team, and teams aren't willing to hand out max contracts like candy anymore.

You have to judge his value around the league by the offers the Thunder got for him. If the Wizards thought Harden was going to become a superstar, then why in the world would they refuse to trade Beal for him?

[Chalky White]

Nor do you know if they could've gotten him. There's more evidence pointing towards "couldn't have gotten him" than there is pointing at "could've gotten him".

Golden State made an offer, an obvious indicator that they were willing to play ball. Presti chose to pursue other options without engaging in negotiations.

They wanted us to take on either the terrible contract of Jefferson or Biedrins, who both had another season remaining on their contracts, if they gave us Klay for Harden. It's not hard to figure out that's a terrible deal. What other options did he have if that's what they wanted?

Golden State's package was better than what OKC ended up getting in the end, never mind the point of negotiations. We did not have to take on Jefferson nor Biedrins, and it was not Golden State that walked away from the table.

I'm guessing Houston was the third team he called, no? He liked the deal and took it. But you're insinuating that he could've somehow gotten an All-Star caliber big like Horford, Noah, or Aldridge, or young bigs with a lot of potential (and bigs like that will always have more valuable than guards) like Drummond or Monroe is ignorant and baseless.

Neither ignorant nor baseless. Most individuals with even a rudimentary understanding of advanced metrics realized Harden's talent level and potential.

viewtopic.php?t=1150270&f=64

Thread was created January of 2012.

He posted a better line, and was a more valuable player in 11-12 than Horford, Monroe, or Noah; and trade rumors had been following Aldridge throughout last season. Never mind the fact that Monroe and Drummond may not be able to play together due to spacing issues, therefore making the premier PnR guard an ideal fit, and Chicago has been searching for a SG and second ball handler for the past three years.

I'm at least basing my belief on something that happened: if we couldn't get Klay Thompson or Beal for Harden, there's absolutely no way in hell a team was going to part with an All-Star caliber big or a young big with good potential for Harden.

Your beliefs are irrelevant. Harden's level of talent compounded with his youth suggest his market value was enough that he could have attracted a competent, lesser talented big. Particularly at PF, a much deeper position than SG.

But I guess it makes it easier for you to pompously sit atop your ivory tower and smirk and belittle Prest and the FO for not asking the Blazers if they'd give us Aldridge for Harden, or the Bulls if they'd give us Noah for Harden; which is a HUGE leap from the rejected trades -- that actually happened -- that couldn't net us Thompson and Beal.

Not a huge leap. You flat just don't know what you're talking about. And I repeat; Golden State nor Washington dictate Harden's market value, so even we were to assume that those two franchises did not realize his worth, that does not necessitate that the remaining 28 franchises would value him similarly.

Such is the purpose of shopping.

At the time of the trade? Absolutely not.

Yes, he was. Hence he was awarded a max extension as well as the opportunity to lead a team. Your being ignorant to his worth does not mean the rest of us were.

Shocked. I actually can’t come up with any examples of a player of his caliber and age getting traded at the time he was traded – it really has never happened. So we were obviously very aggressive and we gave up a lot – Oklahoma City does a great job; we gave up some great players in Kevin (Martin) and Jeremy (Lamb) and some great draft picks – but a top player like James really never gets traded so we jumped at the chance.

- Morey

http://nba.si.com/2012/10/29/rockets-da ... den-trade/

Probably not, but that doesn't mean he could've netted someone like Horford, Aldridge, Noah, Drummond, or Monroe for Harden.

Harden is a better player and a more valuable asset than each of those guys. The only player with comparable value is Drummond. Your failure to realize this only speaks to your ignorance of the sport you chose to follow.

All of those options would've been very unlikely.

Your guesstimation contradicts Harden's value, which would suggest otherwise.

But he wasn't looking for a big, so what? It's clear his intention was to try and replace Harden's absence as a bench scoring guard with another player with at least similar ability to produce in that role. If not, then our only guards coming off the bench would've been Maynor or Reggie, and...Liggins? Whether you like it or not, I think Presti was set and fine with our frontcourt rotation of Ibaka, Collison, Perkins, and Thabeet, not to mention Durant's ability to slide over and play in the frontcourt.

So that emphasizes his incompetence. There is no defensible reason to replace what does not need replaced, particularly when you're replacing the replaced with a significantly lesser talent that has not shown the ability to fill in where necessary.

If you trade Harden for a big, you're left with a very weak backcourt rotation, unless you get another serviceable backcourt bench player in the same trade. Presti got a one year holdover, a potential replacement who was a lottery pick, and another future lottery pick.

Presti received a terrible package that has weakened the team. Filling the gaping chasm and overall negative that is the Thunder's 5 rotation would have mitigated Harden's loss, provided the team with balance, and better equipped OKC for the post season.

[NaturalThunder]

Chalky, I read you post, and will leave it at this. It's not worth the time or effort anymore, because we're never going to see eye to eye. If you want to believe this is me waving the white flag, and that you bested me, so be it. I really don't care. It's just not worth my time or effort anymore to continue arguing in circles with you.

A lot of what you're posting isn't any less rooted in opinion than what I'm posting, but you keep attacking my intelligence, repeatedly telling me I'm ignorant, and telling I have no clue what I'm talking about; but I've done the same to you a few times and I apologize for that. A message board argument, once it's reached this level of vitriol, just needs to end.

[tsherkin]

Chalky, you need to scale back the tone of your posts; that one was borderline.

[Chalky White]

Take it seriously.

[spearsy23]

Harden has become overrated. There, I said it, flame away. He is an exceptional offensive player, but he's been exposed against athletic defenses on a fairly consistent basis now and his raw stats are being inflated by Houston's pace. His defense is abhorrent, literally some of the worst in the league, and he's gotten far too much credit for the small upward swing that houston had last year. Calling him one of the most valuable players in the league is an overestimation of his impact, unless you're talking purely in terms of trade value.

He may still become one of the league's top players, but as of right now he is a second rate superstar and his impact on the court is grossly overestimated. I say this as someone who still likes James harden, I like him as a player and as a person, and I'll still defend him against the haters who say he 'sucks.' But he isn't the player some others make him out to be either.

[tsherkin]

Harden has become overrated. There, I said it, flame away. He is an exceptional offensive player, but he's been exposed against athletic defenses on a fairly consistent basis now

You mean in two series, in one of which he was a first-time first option scorer with a fairly limited team that didn't back him up offensively? I don't know that it's fair to look at a first-time starter at 23 and drop the E-bomb on him. If it happens again THIS season, I think that'd be fair, but remember which teams you're talking about.

The 2012 Heat were a VERY good team at taking away the foundation of his efficacy, which is the PnR and the Thunder this past season weren't exactly slouches, nor were they overly pressed by the offensive potency of Harden's Houston teammates. He most certainly needs a mid-range game to develop to a new tier, but "overrated" isn't really an accurate assessment for a guy whom many still rate below healthy Wade and Kobe at his position even after a breakout first year heading his own franchise (and minding how long even someone like KD or Bron took to really properly adjust to that role).

and his raw stats are being inflated by Houston's pace.

Not really, no. I mean, we even saw it in the OKC series, he averaged 28.5 ppg with 7 rpg and 5 apg over the last two games of the series at an average pace of 90.4; he's proven capable of operating at lower pace because most of what he does is based around a highly effective half-court set.

His defense is abhorrent, literally some of the worst in the league, and he's gotten far too much credit for the small upward swing that houston had last year. Calling him one of the most valuable players in the league is an overestimation of his impact, unless you're talking purely in terms of trade value.

This is also inaccurate. In 2012, Houston was a 105.5 ORTG team, ranked 12th in the league offensively. They were a 34-32 squad (+0.57 SRS), 17th on D (105.2). In 2013, they were the 6th-best offense in the league (109.7), 16th on D (106.1) and a 45-win team at 3.69 SRS.

That's not a "small upward swing," that's a considerable shift in team efficacy. They'd have been the third-best team in the East with that SRS and by record alone, the 5th seed (though again, they'd have won more games out East). After the team lost Martin, Scola and Lowry, no one expected them to dominate that way on offense and while Asik had his role (as did Lin), it was clearly Harden driving that squad's RS efficacy on offense and it was clearly their offense which won them games.

So it would be terribly inaccurate to say that he's getting too much credit for what happened in Houston.

He's not someone who should be compared directly to a guy like prime Kobe or Wade, that much is certainly true as a result of his extreme one-way play, which you mentioned... but his offensive utility to Houston is very clearly MASSIVE.

[NaturalThunder]

I know this can be tricky, because you'd need to figure out how many of these minutes Harden was off the floor at the same time as Asik....but Houston's opponents had a 107.4 ORtg with Harden on the floor, and a 103.2 ORtg without Harden on the floor. Couple that with Houston having a 110.2 ORtg with Harden on the floor and a 109.6 ORtg without Harden floor, and you get a combined -3.5 on/off for Harden.

[tsherkin]

I know this can be tricky, because you'd need to figure out how many of these minutes Harden was off the floor at the same time as Asik....but Houston's opponents had a 107.4 ORtg with Harden on the floor, and a 103.2 ORtg without Harden on the floor. Couple that with Houston having a 110.2 ORtg with Harden on the floor and a 109.6 ORtg without Harden floor, and you get a combined -3.5 on/off for Harden.

Problem with the on/off?

ON: 2984 minutes
OFF: 972 minutes

That's a better than 3:1 ratio of on to off, which throws the data into doubt. Do you really think that Houston could have maintained a 109.6 ORTG without Harden all season long?

Harden was a +6/0 xRAPM player on offense, -0.9 on defense. His regular oRAPM was +6.6, -0.9 dRAPM.

His offensive impact kind of really shows through, regardless of raw on/off and it's unreliable sample size from a single season, one which doesn't make sense logically when you consider the players involved.

[bondom34]

I'd say he's rated about properly (at least on this site/PC board). Some media overhype a little, but that happens with all stars. He's an amazing offensive talent with some defensive issues, though I wouldn't go so far to say worst in the league bad. tsherkin pointed out the stats, his oRAPM is actually better than KD, his defense is just much worse (around 3 points). OKC needed to do something to get what they could for him, and they did. I won't say the trade was a "win", but it can still be salvaged if Adams ends up productive, which I still have hope for. Put it this way, this franchise has the highest rated under 25 talent, a front office that drafts relatively well, and has only 1 bad contract to its name, and a team that grows together yearly and is easy to root for. There's a lot of other franchises much more questionably run, and I'm glad to be a fan of this group.