2/17/21 | OKC Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies | 8 PM CST

[ThunderBolt]

I want that pick to be 9-11. Don't want to risk a 35% chance of that pick not to convey just to go up one or two spots.

It’s a lottery. Risk is unavoidable. Right now the three picks are 6,7,8. Teams aren’t going to stay locked in specific spots for months. Even if we lose the pick, I would rather risk losing it than risk houston making the playoffs and drafting another long term project that can’t shoot.

I know there's a risk but the risk/reward isn't worth it to me. If they are bottom 5-8 they have 31.9% to get a top 4 pick or a pick between 7-9 pick most likely. If bottom 9-10 it's lower than 20% to get a pick just behind that (9-11 basically). Don't think there's a huge talent gap in the draft between those spots that are worth a 10+% risk for that pick swap not to convey.

But I'm already asssuming there's no risk Houston will make the playoffs. Just can't see it happening.

Worrying about mid to late lottery seeding for Houston in February seems premature. Two weeks ago it looked like a healthy houston team was a playoff team. It’s way to early to worry about houston being so bad they keep their pick. Wood will be back at some point and they’ll stop the free fall.

[Dadouv47]

It’s a lottery. Risk is unavoidable. Right now the three picks are 6,7,8. Teams aren’t going to stay locked in specific spots for months. Even if we lose the pick, I would rather risk losing it than risk houston making the playoffs and drafting another long term project that can’t shoot.

I know there's a risk but the risk/reward isn't worth it to me. If they are bottom 5-8 they have 31.9% to get a top 4 pick or a pick between 7-9 pick most likely. If bottom 9-10 it's lower than 20% to get a pick just behind that (9-11 basically). Don't think there's a huge talent gap in the draft between those spots that are worth a 10+% risk for that pick swap not to convey.

But I'm already asssuming there's no risk Houston will make the playoffs. Just can't see it happening.

Worrying about mid to late lottery seeding for Houston in February seems premature. Two weeks ago it looked like a healthy houston team was a playoff team. It’s way to early to worry about houston being so bad they keep their pick. Wood will be back at some point and they’ll stop the free fall.

Fair enough. I just think it's more likely Houston ends up with a bottom 4-6 record than they would make the playoffs so I don't really root for them to keep losing so many games.

[ThunderBolt]

I know there's a risk but the risk/reward isn't worth it to me. If they are bottom 5-8 they have 31.9% to get a top 4 pick or a pick between 7-9 pick most likely. If bottom 9-10 it's lower than 20% to get a pick just behind that (9-11 basically). Don't think there's a huge talent gap in the draft between those spots that are worth a 10+% risk for that pick swap not to convey.

But I'm already asssuming there's no risk Houston will make the playoffs. Just can't see it happening.

Worrying about mid to late lottery seeding for Houston in February seems premature. Two weeks ago it looked like a healthy houston team was a playoff team. It’s way to early to worry about houston being so bad they keep their pick. Wood will be back at some point and they’ll stop the free fall.

Fair enough. I just think it's more likely Houston ends up with a bottom 4-6 record than they would make the playoffs so I don't really root for them to keep losing so many games.

I think their starters have only played like 6 games together. It would suck to lose that pick but I just can’t see them being that bad unless wall and wood miss extended time.