2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

[slick_watts]

I think an underrated thing when discussing Ferguson over Roberson is that he is just more offensively skilled than Roberson. Cutting, offensive recognition, passing (even if it doesn’t lead to an assist), running floor in transition, vision, leaping ability, and he’s just plain faster on his cuts and running off screens which does cause some kind of misdirection at times where as defenses just know to sag off of Roberson at all times.

heh what. 'dre is much better than ferg on a lot of these things. especially in transition, as a passer, "offensive recognition", etc. what are you watching?

one major thing 'dre did was set effective screens. especially back screens on CENTERS for adams on those lobs, and the pin-down screens for paul george. he's so much better at this than any of our other wings. and ferg might be the worst at it.

i don't get how you could view their relative skillsets this way with an honest viewing of them on offense. especially transition. 'dre is an extraordinary player in transition.

[spearsy23]

. When have we ever seen a this play with him?


.

http://www.nba.com/video/2018/02/11/0021700839-mem-okc-play7

It did happen a couple of times last season.

[CROklahoma]

.

You have to dig deeper then ORtG/DRtG because you're missing the big discrepancies that lead to the bigger NetRtG for the Ferguson starters so far.

The base for said comparison is Roberson-George-Adams. That 3-man-lineup allowed 93.2 pp100p per stats.nba.com. Per basketball-reference.com, that was the 2nd best defense last year among all 3-man-units with at least 500 mp. The only better lineup was Rubio-Mitchell-Gobert (96.8 for Roberson-George-Adams compared to 95.9 for the Utah lineup).
Now this season Ferguson-George-Adams is at 97.5 DRtG. That right there is a ~5p100p swing. 97.5 DRtG is still excellent (per ctg, the Ferguson lineup ranks in the 98th percentile; the Roberson one in the 99th percentile), but it is a difference after all. So the difference in NetRtG is not due to a better defense, but due to a better offense: 106.0 ORtG for the Roberson one, 116.7 ORtG for the Ferguson one. That's a big swing and one might be inclined to point at Roberson as the main culprit, but I'd say this is actually quite easy to explain: Shooting.

This is the 3P% of our starters in the Roberson lineup:

Westbrook: 26 % on 61 tries
Roberson: 26 % on 23 tries
George: 39 % on 105 tries
Melo: 34 % on 101 tries

And this is the 3PT% of the Ferguson starters:

Westbrook: 33 % on 6 tries
Schröder: 36 % on 22 tries
George: 41 % on 54 tries
Grant: 58 % on 19 tries

Ferguson-George-Adams has an eFG% of 56.4 % (that's better than the Rockets last season and almost as good as last year's Warriors), Roberson-George-Adams at 52.7 % (which is slightly above league average). And furthermore, the Ferguson starters have been much less turnover prone (77th percentile compared to 18th percentile for the Roberson starters) and have been getting to the line (66th percentile compared to 15th percentile for the Roberson starters).

You can certainly make the argument that not playing Roberson might have a positive effect on the team, but I highly doubt that since Ferguson can't shoot either and can't do anything offensively anyway. I suspect we're simply talking about variance and some changes in the offensive approach that Roberson didn't benefit of last year.

I think an underrated thing when discussing Ferguson over Roberson is that he is just more offensively skilled than Roberson. Cutting, offensive recognition, passing (even if it doesn’t lead to an assist), running floor in transition, vision, leaping ability, and he’s just plain faster on his cuts and running off screens which does cause some kind of misdirection at times where as defenses just know to sag off of Roberson at all times.


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What the hell are you on ?
Ferguson is not better in any single department u mentioned than Robes. Any. Not yet.

[getrichordie]

My question would be is if those changes in offensive approach are actually due to not having Roberson and are effective, because whether or not Ferguson might not be a consistent shooter, he is still respected on offense to a significantly greater degree than Roberson. After all, Roberson is a historically bad shooter. Even Ferguson isn’t that bad and won’t be that bad.

Well, no, he is not. He is a career 31.3 % 3pt shooter. He can't shoot either. The only difference is that Roberson does not want to shoot whereas Ferguson has no problem with letting it fly. That might make a difference on the court, but after all, neither one of them can shoot. When teams start gameplaning for our offense, they will sag off of Ferguson just as well.

I think an underrated thing when discussing Ferguson over Roberson is that he is just more offensively skilled than Roberson. Cutting, offensive recognition, passing (even if it doesn’t lead to an assist), running floor in transition, vision, leaping ability, and he’s just plain faster on his cuts and running off screens which does cause some kind of misdirection at times where as defenses just know to sag off of Roberson at all times.

Everything you've just said is what Roberson is better at than Ferguson. When, pray tell, is Ferguson doing these things you're ascribing to him? Because more often then not he's just standing in the corner. He's not cutting with regularity, he doesn't even have the ball in his hands to pass, and most importantly he can't set a screen to save his life. Our offense really started humming last sesaon when they started reversing Roberson and Melo on offense with Anthony being parked at the perimeter and Roberson playing like a four, setting screens and playing closer to the basket.

You talk about Ferguson like he's constantly dashing to the rim. When have we ever seen a this play with him?





Remember, this was the exact same play he injured himself on. They were doing this regularly, smartly taking advantage of Roberson's defender ignoring Roberson when he was positioned in the corner. With Ferguson's athleticism, we should be seeing this with regularity as well, no?

Ferguson actually gets the fewest touches per game among the 221 players with at least 20 mpg at 13.5. He's also averaging the fewest "touch minutes" per game amongst those 221 guys: He has the ball in his hands for not even 21 seconds (!!!) per game (!!!). He also averages the fewest passes per game amongst said 21 guys at 7.9. That's how much of a non-factor offensively he is for this team.

I don’t mean to make it sound like he’s dashing to the rim a ton. I just think he has a bit better offensive awareness and stretches the defense just enough more than Roberson does to give a little bit more breathing space to the guys you want taking the majority of the shots.

It’s funny that you ask me if I’ve ever seen him cut to the rim using the baseline to get behind the defense and the answer is yes. Go watch the Houston game highlights from earlier this year. He makes 4 threes and his other FGM is a backdoor baseline cut where he is fed by Adams who is being doubled.

Also, if you pay attention to those highlights, Paul (one of the smartest players in the game) is not sagging off of Ferguson the way he would sag off of Roberson.


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[getrichordie]

Watch on YouTube

Ferguson is doing this kind of stuff in second year. Kid is freaky athletic albeit small compared to Roberson.

He’s a damn pogo stick.

I don’t recall Roberson ever doing anything remotely close to this.


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[Pillendreher]

. When have we ever seen a this play with him?


.

http://www.nba.com/video/2018/02/11/0021700839-mem-okc-play7

It did happen a couple of times last season.

You know how I know that that whole thing is fake? Raymond Felton supposedly threw a lob pass that connected. Yeah, right.

[ThunderBolt]

Am I the only one that remembers Dre cutting to the basket last year? Just because Dre is sorely lacking with offensive skills doesn’t mean he isn’t athletic.

[bondom34]

Synergy stats aren't fully updated but through 7 games Ferguson averaged 0.4 cuts per game. Roberson averaged 1.6 last year and scored at a well better rate on them (1.24 to 0.67 PPP).

[slick_watts]

Watch on YouTube

Ferguson is doing this kind of stuff in second year. Kid is freaky athletic albeit small compared to Roberson.

He’s a damn pogo stick.

I don’t recall Roberson ever doing anything remotely close to this.

'dre's ORB% last year was 7.8%. that's more than 2x what ferguson's is at this year. 'dre last year averaged nearly 3x as many 2nd chance points than ferg is this year or last year.

it's not even close. wow, nice putback dunk, i guess that's athletically impressive? 'dre's just way more prolific at this than ferguson.

[slick_watts]

Synergy stats aren't fully updated but through 7 games Ferguson averaged 0.4 cuts per game. Roberson averaged 1.6 last year and scored at a well better rate on them (1.24 to 0.67 PPP).

even through the 7 games they are not accurate. it's been deprecated by stats.nba.com. i wouldn't trust them at all.

[getrichordie]

Watch on YouTube

Ferguson is doing this kind of stuff in second year. Kid is freaky athletic albeit small compared to Roberson.

He’s a damn pogo stick.

I don’t recall Roberson ever doing anything remotely close to this.

'dre's ORB% last year was 7.8%. that's more than 2x what ferguson's is at this year. 'dre last year averaged nearly 3x as many 2nd chance points than ferg is this year or last year.

it's not even close. wow, nice putback dunk, i guess that's athletically impressive? 'dre's just way more prolific at this than ferguson.

I don’t totally understand ORB% but isn’t it going to be lower if you aren’t missing as many shots? And does individual ORB% have any significant weight to it if the team isn’t missing as many shots or if your team, collectively, is still rebounding at a similar rate?


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[Pillendreher]

I don’t mean to make it sound like he’s dashing to the rim a ton. I just think he has a bit better offensive awareness and stretches the defense just enough more than Roberson does to give a little bit more breathing space to the guys you want taking the majority of the shots.

And where does that "offensive awareness" manifest itself? Again: His role is to stand in the corner and stay there. That's it.

It’s funny that you ask me if I’ve ever seen him cut to the rim using the baseline to get behind the defense and the answer is yes. Go watch the Houston game highlights from earlier this year. He makes 4 threes and his other FGM is a backdoor baseline cut where he is fed by Adams who is being doubled.

Also, if you pay attention to those highlights, Paul (one of the smartest players in the game) is not sagging off of Ferguson the way he would sag off of Roberson.

Before Ferguson's dunk:



Before Ferguson's first 3:



Before Ferguson's second 3 (defense was scrambling because they over-commited to Schröder's drive):



Before Ferguson's third 3:



Before Ferguson's fourth 3 (He's a little to the right of the top of the key):



Teams don't care about Terrance Ferguson shooting 3s. Why should they? He's not making them. All of them position themselves close to the basket because Ferguson spotting up is not a threat to them.

[slick_watts]

Watch on YouTube

Ferguson is doing this kind of stuff in second year. Kid is freaky athletic albeit small compared to Roberson.

He’s a damn pogo stick.

I don’t recall Roberson ever doing anything remotely close to this.

'dre's ORB% last year was 7.8%. that's more than 2x what ferguson's is at this year. 'dre last year averaged nearly 3x as many 2nd chance points than ferg is this year or last year.

it's not even close. wow, nice putback dunk, i guess that's athletically impressive? 'dre's just way more prolific at this than ferguson.

I don’t totally understand ORB% but isn’t it going to be lower if you aren’t missing as many shots? And does individual ORB% have any significant weight to it if the team isn’t missing as many shots or if your team, collectively, is still rebounding at a similar rate?

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orb% is an estimate of the percentage of available offensive rebounds a player secures. so it is controlling for the frequency of missed shots.

[Pillendreher]

I don’t totally understand ORB% but isn’t it going to be lower if you aren’t missing as many shots? And does individual ORB% have any significant weight to it if the team isn’t missing as many shots or if your team, collectively, is still rebounding at a similar rate?

Then look at adjusted oreb chance %: Percentage of rebounds gathered when given a rebound chance on offense; excludes all deferred rebounds

Roberson since they strated tracking this stuff:

2013/14: 43.9 (86 total chances)
2014/15: 29.7 (206 total chances)
2015/16: 38.0 (216 total chances)
2016/17: 32.0 (313 total chances)
2017/18: 42.2 (165 total chances)

Ferguson so far:

2017/18: 63.3 (33 total chances)
2018/19: 68.8 (16 total chances)

I think due to to the lack of sample size for Ferguson, you have to disregard his % at this point. One thing you can take into account though is this: Even though both players start at the 2, Roberson has been generating way more chances at the offensive glass than Ferguson so far. Roberson's at 3.7 per 36 minutes in those five years and Ferguson's at 1.6 per 36 minutes (since 15/16 Roberson's actually even better at 5.0 per 36 minutes).

[getrichordie]

I don’t mean to make it sound like he’s dashing to the rim a ton. I just think he has a bit better offensive awareness and stretches the defense just enough more than Roberson does to give a little bit more breathing space to the guys you want taking the majority of the shots.

And where does that "offensive awareness" manifest itself? Again: His role is to stand in the corner and stay there. That's it.

It’s funny that you ask me if I’ve ever seen him cut to the rim using the baseline to get behind the defense and the answer is yes. Go watch the Houston game highlights from earlier this year. He makes 4 threes and his other FGM is a backdoor baseline cut where he is fed by Adams who is being doubled.

Also, if you pay attention to those highlights, Paul (one of the smartest players in the game) is not sagging off of Ferguson the way he would sag off of Roberson.

Before Ferguson's dunk:



Before Ferguson's first 3:



Before Ferguson's second 3 (defense was scrambling because they over-commited to Schröder's drive):



Before Ferguson's third 3:



Before Ferguson's fourth 3 (He's a little to the right of the top of the key):



Teams don't care about Terrance Ferguson shooting 3s. Why should they? He's not making them. All of them position themselves close to the basket because Ferguson spotting up is not a threat to them.

So what you are saying is Ferguson took advantage of an open look and knocked it down? Go watch the highlights again. Even when Ferguson isn’t getting the ball, look where his defender is relative to him.

Look. The fact is that Ferguson is shooting .256 on 3s so far this year where as he shot 33% last year. On the Thunder’s 11-2 run, Ferguson shot 31.3% on obviously higher attempts per 100 possessions. I think he’s still getting comfortable in his starting role, but 33% is a sustainable and achievable goal for Ferguson this year and can even be improved upon by the sophomore as he gets more comfortable in his role.

Ferguson may not be that good of a shooter yet, but he is still that much better than Roberson’s complete and utter lack of shooting. Roberson’s career 3P% is .256. For all of Ferguson’s shooting woes, he’s still about 6% points better. And when the Thunder are sorely lacking shooting, every make counts.

point 2 5 6



I think this could be a case of a lot of little under the radar things adding up to cumulatively help the Thunder reach a higher offensive ceiling under a Westbrook-led team.


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[bondom34]

I'd say the forced turnovers leading to a much higher rate of transition opportunities is more likely to reach a higher offense than a 31% 3 point shooter.

[Pillendreher]

So what you are saying is Ferguson took advantage of an open look and knocked it down?

No, I'm saying that Ferguson doesn't matter to opposing teams.

Go watch the highlights again. Even when Ferguson isn’t getting the ball, look where his defender is relative to him.

I don't have to watch highlights of him. I just showed you where his defender was relative to every basket of this. They have their heads turned away from him with one foot basically in the paint. They don't respect him, period.

Look. The fact is that Ferguson is shooting .256 on 3s so far this year where as he shot 33% last year. On the Thunder’s 11-2 run, Ferguson shot 31.3%. I think he’s still getting comfortable in his starting role, but 33% is a sustainable and achievable goal for Ferguson this year and can even be improved upon by the sophomore as he gets more comfortable in his role.

Ferguson may not be that good of a shooter yet, but he is still that much better than Roberson’s complete and utter lack of shooting.

What value is there to shooting ~30 % from 3? Opposing defenses don't care about that kind of shot because they've made sure that they take away the worst shots for them: Open cracks at the basket (teams are shooting 62.7 in the restricted area this season which is - at 1.25 PPS - the equivalent of shooting 41 % from 3) and open 3s to good shooters.
Ferguson shooting 31 % from 3 is not providing any real value offensively. On average, he's going to need more than 3 3s a game to even make a shot. That's more than 3 possessions each game you're just wasting because the return will be well below what an average team scores on a shot. That's at 1.04 PPS while Ferguson taking 3s is at 0.93 PPS. What's the point? That you get "at least something" out of him? Letting a guy shoot until he finally makes one is not an approach that will survive in the Playoffs.

I think this could be a case of a lot of little under the radar things adding up to cumulatively help the Thunder reach a higher offensive ceiling under a Westbrook-led team.

Don't beat around the bush. What are the "under the radar things" Ferguson is supposedly doing when

a) He doesn't even touch the ball to generate shots for others

b) He doesn't attack the rim with regularity

c) He can't set screens

d) He doesn't create 2nd chances for his team regularly (He's 228th out of 235 players with at least 300 mp in 2nd chance points)

Where is said "unseen value" coming from?

[getrichordie]

I'd say the forced turnovers leading to a much higher rate of transition opportunities is more likely to reach a higher offense than a 31% 3 point shooter.

Are we forcing more turnovers when Ferguson is on the floor versus Roberson on the floor?


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[slick_watts]

i think something that's missing in this discussion, if we're going to be harping on lineup data differences so much, is that 'dre played his starter's minutes with melo on the court last year.

[bondom34]

I'd say the forced turnovers leading to a much higher rate of transition opportunities is more likely to reach a higher offense than a 31% 3 point shooter.

Are we forcing more turnovers when Ferguson is on the floor versus Roberson on the floor?


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Opponent TO% was 19.5% on a much larger sample last year with Dre and 19.3% with Ferguson this year using CTG.

They're running in transition 17.5% of the time with Ferguson this year and it was 20.2% with Roberson last year (actually most was off of rebounds).