OKC Thunder Offseason 2015

[Soonerule]

I don't have the time right now but I may debunk some of the claims he's made later.

I just want to say one last thing...

Yikes...nice chart.

I'm kinda hoping Presti doesn't match now, though I do believe a (motivated) 23 year old should be able to improve. However that risk may be too high.

I also had a long standing arguement with a friend that Lamb would go before PJ...so if we don't match Kanter..we don't have to get under the apron...Pj,and thus my continuing priding of PJ over Lamb can continue.

Best part of the chart? "No Kanter is good Kanter" OMG! Lesson learned.... never have a mouthful of hot coffee when you read something that funny!

[Podirk]

Not sure how were not in the tax next 2 years with KD re signing even with the cap raise that is anticipated. By my Calc we remain a tax payer unless I can have KD taking less than the max or I drop more assets

I think there are 9 players commited (if player options are picked up) at ~52 mill.
10 at 70 if Kanter os resigned.
That's ~30 mill to sign KD and have the same lineup we've had.

[NaturalThunder]

I'm going to take what apears to be an unpopular stance here, but I think Kanter's defensive flaws are being overblown here. Not that he's not a terrible defensive player, because he his. But I still think he's a "luxury" that would be very nice to have if used correctly.

Yes, Kanter's defense was comically terrible last year. However, I'm not sure he was ever really put in a good position to be passable on defense. Ibaka missed a little over a month after Kanter got traded to OKC, Roberson missed a few weeks, and Durant was injured the entire time. That's our three best defensive players. I'd like to think Donovan is smart enough to put Kanter in the best possible situations for him and the Thunder to succeed which means putting him on the floor with our best defensive lineups. I'm mostly in the camp of "match the offer sheet" because I still think the added dimension of Kanter's low post scoring ability is something that we sorely need. I know we've had top flight offenses the last few seasons despite that, but it's an added dimension that can be valuable come playoff time in my opinion. With Kanter, we could put some devastatingly, possibly historically great offensive lineups on the floor in my opinion. Something like Westbrook-Morrow-Durant-Ibaka-Kanter would be unfair and provide insane floor spacing.

I want Kanter back, but only if he's in a more minor, 20-25 MPG role, not a featured 30-35 MPG role. That's instilling a lot of confidence in the coaching staff, but if they can handle Kanter correctly, and put him in the best possible situations, then I think he's more than just a "luxury." I think he could be a very valuable piece for us in the playoffs and en route to a championship.

[bondom34]

Oh, I would gladly take 20-25 mpg of Kanter off the bench, my problem is that I don't know if a 4/70 contract and a guy with his previous attitude will take that. He doesn't strike me as someone who's willing to play a role, which is ultimately what the Thunder need in the worst way.

[slick_watts]

I'm going to take what apears to be an unpopular stance here, but I think Kanter's defensive flaws are being overblown here. Not that he's not a terrible defensive player, because he his. But I still think he's a "luxury" that would be very nice to have if used correctly.

Yes, Kanter's defense was comically terrible last year. However, I'm not sure he was ever really put in a good position to be passable on defense. Ibaka missed a little over a month after Kanter got traded to OKC, Roberson missed a few weeks, and Durant was injured the entire time. That's our three best defensive players. I'd like to think Donovan is smart enough to put Kanter in the best possible situations for him and the Thunder to succeed which means putting him on the floor with our best defensive lineups. I'm mostly in the camp of "match the offer sheet" because I still think the added dimension of Kanter's low post scoring ability is something that we sorely need. I know we've had top flight offenses the last few seasons despite that, but it's an added dimension that can be valuable come playoff time in my opinion. With Kanter, we could put some devastatingly, possibly historically great offensive lineups on the floor in my opinion. Something like Westbrook-Morrow-Durant-Ibaka-Kanter would be unfair and provide insane floor spacing.

I want Kanter back, but only if he's in a more minor, 20-25 MPG role, not a featured 30-35 MPG role. That's instilling a lot of confidence in the coaching staff, but if they can handle Kanter correctly, and put him in the best possible situations, then I think he's more than just a "luxury." I think he could be a very valuable piece for us in the playoffs and en route to a championship.

This is mostly agreeable and well reasoned. I don't think there's any way he's retained for that role. He just forced his way out of Utah Reggie Jackson style, and Reggie is anathema to Thunder fans.

[NaturalThunder]

I'm going to take what apears to be an unpopular stance here, but I think Kanter's defensive flaws are being overblown here. Not that he's not a terrible defensive player, because he his. But I still think he's a "luxury" that would be very nice to have if used correctly.

Yes, Kanter's defense was comically terrible last year. However, I'm not sure he was ever really put in a good position to be passable on defense. Ibaka missed a little over a month after Kanter got traded to OKC, Roberson missed a few weeks, and Durant was injured the entire time. That's our three best defensive players. I'd like to think Donovan is smart enough to put Kanter in the best possible situations for him and the Thunder to succeed which means putting him on the floor with our best defensive lineups. I'm mostly in the camp of "match the offer sheet" because I still think the added dimension of Kanter's low post scoring ability is something that we sorely need. I know we've had top flight offenses the last few seasons despite that, but it's an added dimension that can be valuable come playoff time in my opinion. With Kanter, we could put some devastatingly, possibly historically great offensive lineups on the floor in my opinion. Something like Westbrook-Morrow-Durant-Ibaka-Kanter would be unfair and provide insane floor spacing.

I want Kanter back, but only if he's in a more minor, 20-25 MPG role, not a featured 30-35 MPG role. That's instilling a lot of confidence in the coaching staff, but if they can handle Kanter correctly, and put him in the best possible situations, then I think he's more than just a "luxury." I think he could be a very valuable piece for us in the playoffs and en route to a championship.

This is mostly agreeable and well reasoned. I don't think there's any way he's retained for that role. He just forced his way out of Utah Reggie Jackson style, and Reggie is anathema to Thunder fans.

Right, I don't think he's retained for that role...initially. But, for now anyway, I have enough faith in our coaching staff to "limit" him to that role if his defense warrants it. Like bondom said and you're alluding to, though, then the coaching staff and fans might have to worry about Kanter's attitude which could cause even more problems.

[Soonerule]

Oh, I would gladly take 20-25 mpg of Kanter off the bench, my problem is that I don't know if a 4/70 contract and a guy with his previous attitude will take that. He doesn't strike me as someone who's willing to play a role, which is ultimately what the Thunder need in the worst way.

and that is the $70 mil question.

This will be the first time in Kanter's NBA career in which he has the opportunity to play for a team with a legitimate shot at a championship. High expectations come with tremendous pressures, we all know that, and Enes has not had to deal with that in his career. The closest he has come to that was last season in Utah. As a fourth year player he was expected to step up and prove his worth and when the team was still struggling and the expectation switched to him being willing to sacrifice minutes for the good of the team he balked, demanded a trade and then threw his former team under the bus to cover for his failures after he got his wish.

That whole, "I've never been happy in the NBA" speech was very convenient considering the hit the terms of that trade had on his future contract. The whole thing reeked of damage control... still does.

During this 72 hour period after Kanter signed Portland's offer sheet I hope Presti has taken off the car salesman hat and replaced it with the hat with the word "BOSS" in big bold letters on the front. Now that the BS of contract negotiation is out of the way it's hog boiling time.

There's the blue pill, Presti doesn't match Portland's offer. Kanter can go there and do pretty much what he has been doing the last 4 years. He and Lilliard can run up and down the floor and just have a high old time with virtually no pressure and make $70 mil doing it.... or the red pill, Presti does match the offer, same money but Kanter comes here and goes to work for real with a clear understanding that the team comes first and his playing time will be dictated by the team's performance and not his personal highlight reel.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6a3g8pFc0rg[/youtube]

Presti gets this one wrong, it could be his job. If I were he, I would do everything in my power to make sure Kanter is really ready before I gave him the red pill.

[Pillendreher]

Next season, KD and Serge will return to the lineup and Kanter's scoring opportunities will decrease as a result. As the #3 or #4 scoring option vs being the #2 option he will be attempting that treacherous river crossing with a smaller paddle in the same leaky rowboat. There is only one solution to the river dilemma and Kanter successfully crossing it, patch the boat and reduce the leaking.

Excellent point. He's gonna be the 4th option, his usg% is gonna drop and his offensive impact is gonna be reduced. On the other end though teams will still attack him relentlessly.

[Soonerule]

Next season, KD and Serge will return to the lineup and Kanter's scoring opportunities will decrease as a result. As the #3 or #4 scoring option vs being the #2 option he will be attempting that treacherous river crossing with a smaller paddle in the same leaky rowboat. There is only one solution to the river dilemma and Kanter successfully crossing it, patch the boat and reduce the leaking.

Excellent point. He's gonna be the 4th option, his usg% is gonna drop and his offensive impact is gonna be reduced. On the other end though teams will still attack him relentlessly.

Next season for Kanter will be very similar to Bosh's first season in Miami. His DBPM stayed relatively the same but his OBPM dropped from 3.0 as Toronto's number 1 option to 0.1 as Miami's number 3. His DBPM rose 1 pt but his overall BPM dropped from 2.3 to 0.4 .

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/boshch01.html

When Kanter was traded to OKC his DBPM stayed basically the same, -1.7, but his OBPM got a bump to 3.0 as OKC's #2 option, for a BPM of 1.2.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kanteen01.html

When KD and Serge get back it doesn't take very much drop in Kanter's OBPM to drop him back into the negative overall which points to limiting his role which leads to the question, will Kanter accept a smaller role? His history says no.

[Pillendreher]

And you have to consider paying 70/4 for a 20 mpg guy. That's like paying Jamal Crawford that amount for being the scoring punch off the bench. Yikes.

[Soonerule]

And you have to consider paying 70/4 for a 20 mpg guy. That's like paying Jamal Crawford that amount for being the scoring punch off the bench. Yikes.

yikes is right.

I'm going to play devil's advocate to myself, otherwise I won't be getting any sleep for the next couple of months.

1. Kanter has unique low post skills. Based upon his previous work history regarding his defense I have to assume most of it is pure instinct.

2. This is the first time Kanter is stepping into a championship level results driven environment and I have to believe there is a competitive bone somewhere inside there.

3. Donovan is a gung ho college coach with a history of developing player relationships.

4. KD and Russell are total gym rats with unquenchable desires to win a championship.

5. Adams has this whole Tongan/Maori mana thing going and drives himself relentlessly.

6. McGary is an energizer bunny with a non-stop motor and definitely wants to get paid somewhere down the road and seems to have a solid grasp how to make that happen.

7. Collison is a no-nonsense, rock solid, blue collar mentor who has been able to communicate well and help accelerate the McGary and Adam's learning curves.

8. Serge is ... Serge. Ready to do whatever.

9. Morrow, another gym rat, is on a personal quest to improve his defense along with his quik-shot. His defense is still green, but he was showing signs of improvement. (and that quik-shot of his was deadly and could improve even more)

There is no way any of these guys fail to recognize that Kanter's defense sucks eggs and he will be getting paid more than anyone not named Kevin Durant. Everyone is going into the season fresh and under new leadership and I could see myself stepping into either Adam's or McGary's shoes and having no qualms whatsoever about kicking Kanter's prissy butt if he doesn't put on his big boy pants every day. Same thing goes for Westbrook... no, it especially goes with Westbrook and if he ever sees Kanter as a liability, heaven help him.

Screw it, if the billionaires want to spend the money, let 'em. If Kanter tries to wimp out again the kids will beat him into shape or have him begging to be traded. I would avoid the possibility of Kanter mucking up the works and not waste the money but it isn't my money.

[Kizz Fastfists]

Screw it, if the billionaires want to spend the money, let 'em. If Kanter tries to wimp out again the kids will beat him into shape or have him begging to be traded. I would avoid the possibility of Kanter mucking up the works and not waste the money but it isn't my money.

You are missing the biggest part of this. Even if Kanter wimps out and doesn't improve his defense he can still be traded for another contract. The cap went up $3M more than projected for this season to $70M with a $84.74M tax line. Next year the cap will be over $90M with the tax over $105M. A max contract signed next off-season will be worth $27M! Kanter will still be on the old scale meaning he'll be around $18M. That is going to be the salary of a 2nd tier player under the new cap. If Kanter decides he wants out because the team is being to hard on him by expecting him to play defense they will be able to trade him for a better fit. Kanter's flashy offense will have lots of teams wanting him. They will ignore his lack of defense because he will pass the eye test even if he is a negative player on the court and there are still some teams who don't use advanced metrics and enjoy being lottery teams.

Once they pass on Kanter they can never spend that money to add a player. So even if the end game isn't Kanter. You still have to match and then move him next off-season for a piece you'd prefer. You can't not match. You have to give him a chance to show that he has matured at 23 and is ready to play defense. If not you have him do nothing but play defense in practice and limit his touches during games until he agrees to accept a trade because he doesn't like the way you are neglecting his one ability. I can't believe Portland made the offer and part me wants to just stick them with him because there is no way they really want to pay him that money to be coming off the bench for Mason Plumlee. It was a great offer by Portland because OKC has no choice but to match and they get to screw with a division rival.

[Soonerule]

Screw it, if the billionaires want to spend the money, let 'em. If Kanter tries to wimp out again the kids will beat him into shape or have him begging to be traded. I would avoid the possibility of Kanter mucking up the works and not waste the money but it isn't my money.

You are missing the biggest part of this. Even if Kanter wimps out and doesn't improve his defense he can still be traded for another contract. The cap went up $3M more than projected for this season to $70M with a $84.74M tax line. Next year the cap will be over $90M with the tax over $105M. A max contract signed next off-season will be worth $27M! Kanter will still be on the old scale meaning he'll be around $18M. That is going to be the salary of a 2nd tier player under the new cap. If Kanter decides he wants out because the team is being to hard on him by expecting him to play defense they will be able to trade him for a better fit. Kanter's flashy offense will have lots of teams wanting him. They will ignore his lack of defense because he will pass the eye test even if he is a negative player on the court and there are still some teams who don't use advanced metrics and enjoy being lottery teams.

Once they pass on Kanter they can never spend that money to add a player. So even if the end game isn't Kanter. You still have to match and then move him next off-season for a piece you'd prefer. You can't not match. You have to give him a chance to show that he has matured at 23 and is ready to play defense. If not you have him do nothing but play defense in practice and limit his touches during games until he agrees to accept a trade because he doesn't like the way you are neglecting his one ability. I can't believe Portland made the offer and part me wants to just stick them with him because there is no way they really want to pay him that money to be coming off the bench for Mason Plumlee. It was a great offer by Portland because OKC has no choice but to match and they get to screw with a division rival.

I get all that, (to use a Billy Donovan type turn of phrase) I really really do and I have Woj's twitter page pulled up waiting on the death knoll, I just really really don't have to like it. lol

Donovan is going to have enough on his plate getting everyone up to speed with a new system without dealing with some prissy prima donna that plays the "hayır İngilizce anlamak" (no understand English) card every time he doesn't want to get his hands dirty on defense. It is a recipe for dissension and resentment.

[Podirk]

Screw it, if the billionaires want to spend the money, let 'em. If Kanter tries to wimp out again the kids will beat him into shape or have him begging to be traded. I would avoid the possibility of Kanter mucking up the works and not waste the money but it isn't my money.

You are missing the biggest part of this. Even if Kanter wimps out and doesn't improve his defense he can still be traded for another contract. The cap went up $3M more than projected for this season to $70M with a $84.74M tax line. Next year the cap will be over $90M with the tax over $105M. A max contract signed next off-season will be worth $27M! Kanter will still be on the old scale meaning he'll be around $18M. That is going to be the salary of a 2nd tier player under the new cap. If Kanter decides he wants out because the team is being to hard on him by expecting him to play defense they will be able to trade him for a better fit. Kanter's flashy offense will have lots of teams wanting him. They will ignore his lack of defense because he will pass the eye test even if he is a negative player on the court and there are still some teams who don't use advanced metrics and enjoy being lottery teams.

Once they pass on Kanter they can never spend that money to add a player. So even if the end game isn't Kanter. You still have to match and then move him next off-season for a piece you'd prefer. You can't not match. You have to give him a chance to show that he has matured at 23 and is ready to play defense. If not you have him do nothing but play defense in practice and limit his touches during games until he agrees to accept a trade because he doesn't like the way you are neglecting his one ability. I can't believe Portland made the offer and part me wants to just stick them with him because there is no way they really want to pay him that money to be coming off the bench for Mason Plumlee. It was a great offer by Portland because OKC has no choice but to match and they get to screw with a division rival.

Solid post!
I stood up and clapped it was that good.

I'm gonna go read it again.

[bondom34]

Screw it, if the billionaires want to spend the money, let 'em. If Kanter tries to wimp out again the kids will beat him into shape or have him begging to be traded. I would avoid the possibility of Kanter mucking up the works and not waste the money but it isn't my money.

You are missing the biggest part of this. Even if Kanter wimps out and doesn't improve his defense he can still be traded for another contract. The cap went up $3M more than projected for this season to $70M with a $84.74M tax line. Next year the cap will be over $90M with the tax over $105M. A max contract signed next off-season will be worth $27M! Kanter will still be on the old scale meaning he'll be around $18M. That is going to be the salary of a 2nd tier player under the new cap. If Kanter decides he wants out because the team is being to hard on him by expecting him to play defense they will be able to trade him for a better fit. Kanter's flashy offense will have lots of teams wanting him. They will ignore his lack of defense because he will pass the eye test even if he is a negative player on the court and there are still some teams who don't use advanced metrics and enjoy being lottery teams.

Once they pass on Kanter they can never spend that money to add a player. So even if the end game isn't Kanter. You still have to match and then move him next off-season for a piece you'd prefer. You can't not match. You have to give him a chance to show that he has matured at 23 and is ready to play defense. If not you have him do nothing but play defense in practice and limit his touches during games until he agrees to accept a trade because he doesn't like the way you are neglecting his one ability. I can't believe Portland made the offer and part me wants to just stick them with him because there is no way they really want to pay him that money to be coming off the bench for Mason Plumlee. It was a great offer by Portland because OKC has no choice but to match and they get to screw with a division rival.

I get all that, (to use a Billy Donovan type turn of phrase) I really really do and I have Woj's twitter page pulled up waiting on the death knoll, I just really really don't have to like it. lol

Donovan is going to have enough on his plate getting everyone up to speed with a new system without dealing with some prissy prima donna that plays the "hayır İngilizce anlamak" (no understand English) card every time he doesn't want to get his hands dirty on defense. It is a recipe for dissension and resentment.

I'm in the same boat, but I'll say one thing about the trade idea:
It takes 2 to tango, and the longer Kanter's in the NBA without significant improvement on D, the less likely a team is to take that off your hands.

[Soonerule]

Screw it, if the billionaires want to spend the money, let 'em. If Kanter tries to wimp out again the kids will beat him into shape or have him begging to be traded. I would avoid the possibility of Kanter mucking up the works and not waste the money but it isn't my money.

You are missing the biggest part of this. Even if Kanter wimps out and doesn't improve his defense he can still be traded for another contract. The cap went up $3M more than projected for this season to $70M with a $84.74M tax line. Next year the cap will be over $90M with the tax over $105M. A max contract signed next off-season will be worth $27M! Kanter will still be on the old scale meaning he'll be around $18M. That is going to be the salary of a 2nd tier player under the new cap. If Kanter decides he wants out because the team is being to hard on him by expecting him to play defense they will be able to trade him for a better fit. Kanter's flashy offense will have lots of teams wanting him. They will ignore his lack of defense because he will pass the eye test even if he is a negative player on the court and there are still some teams who don't use advanced metrics and enjoy being lottery teams.

Once they pass on Kanter they can never spend that money to add a player. So even if the end game isn't Kanter. You still have to match and then move him next off-season for a piece you'd prefer. You can't not match. You have to give him a chance to show that he has matured at 23 and is ready to play defense. If not you have him do nothing but play defense in practice and limit his touches during games until he agrees to accept a trade because he doesn't like the way you are neglecting his one ability. I can't believe Portland made the offer and part me wants to just stick them with him because there is no way they really want to pay him that money to be coming off the bench for Mason Plumlee. It was a great offer by Portland because OKC has no choice but to match and they get to screw with a division rival.

Solid post!
I stood up and clapped it was that good.

I'm gonna go read it again.

Yep, I've done my homework:

84. How do simultaneous trades work? How much salary can a team take back in a simultaneous trade?
Taxpaying teams can take back up to 125% of their outgoing salaries, plus $100,000, no matter how much salary the team is sending away. For example, a taxpaying team trading away $10 million in salaries can acquire one or more replacement players making up to $12.6 million.

Which means the Thunder could trade for a player up to $21.35 mil, or a combination of multiple players up to that amount (if they created the roster space)

of course, in order for that to be a possibility next season Kanter ( I hate a name with the word CAN'T in it) would have to agree to it before the trade deadline. After the season he can go hang if he doesn't like it. I get it... I .. just ...don't ... have to ... ... like it!

Oh yeh, I would give him a chance to prove something all right, and when he doesn't I would cast him to the Sodomites asap.

[Soonerule]

You are missing the biggest part of this. Even if Kanter wimps out and doesn't improve his defense he can still be traded for another contract. The cap went up $3M more than projected for this season to $70M with a $84.74M tax line. Next year the cap will be over $90M with the tax over $105M. A max contract signed next off-season will be worth $27M! Kanter will still be on the old scale meaning he'll be around $18M. That is going to be the salary of a 2nd tier player under the new cap. If Kanter decides he wants out because the team is being to hard on him by expecting him to play defense they will be able to trade him for a better fit. Kanter's flashy offense will have lots of teams wanting him. They will ignore his lack of defense because he will pass the eye test even if he is a negative player on the court and there are still some teams who don't use advanced metrics and enjoy being lottery teams.

Once they pass on Kanter they can never spend that money to add a player. So even if the end game isn't Kanter. You still have to match and then move him next off-season for a piece you'd prefer. You can't not match. You have to give him a chance to show that he has matured at 23 and is ready to play defense. If not you have him do nothing but play defense in practice and limit his touches during games until he agrees to accept a trade because he doesn't like the way you are neglecting his one ability. I can't believe Portland made the offer and part me wants to just stick them with him because there is no way they really want to pay him that money to be coming off the bench for Mason Plumlee. It was a great offer by Portland because OKC has no choice but to match and they get to screw with a division rival.

I get all that, (to use a Billy Donovan type turn of phrase) I really really do and I have Woj's twitter page pulled up waiting on the death knoll, I just really really don't have to like it. lol

Donovan is going to have enough on his plate getting everyone up to speed with a new system without dealing with some prissy prima donna that plays the "hayır İngilizce anlamak" (no understand English) card every time he doesn't want to get his hands dirty on defense. It is a recipe for dissension and resentment.

I'm in the same boat, but I'll say one thing about the trade idea:
It takes 2 to tango, and the longer Kanter's in the NBA without significant improvement on D, the less likely a team is to take that off your hands.

True, but it gives us the room to trade for what we REALLY need, a real deal 3 and D SG if we get a chance. Dangit Kizz, I found all this researching http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q84 last night I just didn't want to say it out loud. Now I have to take the red pill and Kanter will too, but I would still lay out what he better get ready for.

[bondom34]

I get all that, (to use a Billy Donovan type turn of phrase) I really really do and I have Woj's twitter page pulled up waiting on the death knoll, I just really really don't have to like it. lol

Donovan is going to have enough on his plate getting everyone up to speed with a new system without dealing with some prissy prima donna that plays the "hayır İngilizce anlamak" (no understand English) card every time he doesn't want to get his hands dirty on defense. It is a recipe for dissension and resentment.

I'm in the same boat, but I'll say one thing about the trade idea:
It takes 2 to tango, and the longer Kanter's in the NBA without significant improvement on D, the less likely a team is to take that off your hands.

True, but it gives us the room to trade for what we REALLY need, a real deal 3 and D SG if we get a chance. Dangit Kizz, I found all this researching http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q85 last night I just didn't want to say it out loud. Now I have to take the red pill and Kanter will too, but I would still lay out what he better get ready for.

Well, if you don't match you have cap next year, even w/ KD's cap hold. So you can throw money at a guy then if you'd like assuming your confident w/ Durant.

[KD35Brah]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLf0hA638dY[/youtube]

Justin Anderson's 1st summer league game

[bondom34]

Summer league.

And we haven't seen Cam at all.