OKC Thunder Offseason 2015

[Kizz Fastfists]

Well, if you don't match you have cap next year, even w/ KD's cap hold. So you can throw money at a guy then if you'd like assuming your confident w/ Durant.

They wouldn't have much to play with. They will be around $90M with the KD hold, the QO to Waiters that is going to anger me greatly, the hold for Augustin, etc. Even if they don't offer a QO to Waiters they are still going to be in the $84M range with will leave them with around $8M to offer out. Given the increase in the cap that is not going to land anything significant. Kyle Singler just got $5M/yr before the cap went up. A player like him will be getting $8M/yr next year, which is just insane to me. So basically you are saving cap room for a potential Kyle Singler over having Kanter. There is no reason not to match when it comes to financial flexibility or future roster moves. It is very simple. Is the team better with Kanter? If no then let Portland have him. If yes then match. Given that Presti acquired him to be something OKC needed, a low post scoring option, and he is one of the best in the NBA at it you match and let Russ berate him like CP3 does DeAndre Jordan until Kanter either plays harder or submits to being traded and you get something you want/need out of him from a team that needs low post scoring.

[Soonerule]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLf0hA638dY[/youtube]

Justin Anderson's 1st summer league game

[Marcus50]

Not sure how were not in the tax next 2 years with KD re signing even with the cap raise that is anticipated. By my Calc we remain a tax payer unless I can have KD taking less than the max or I drop more assets

I think there are 9 players commited (if player options are picked up) at ~52 mill.
10 at 70 if Kanter os resigned.
That's ~30 mill to sign KD and have the same lineup we've had.

OK Thanks.

[Marcus50]

I just want to say one last thing...

Yikes...nice chart.

I'm kinda hoping Presti doesn't match now, though I do believe a (motivated) 23 year old should be able to improve. However that risk may be too high.

I also had a long standing arguement with a friend that Lamb would go before PJ...so if we don't match Kanter..we don't have to get under the apron...Pj,and thus my continuing priding of PJ over Lamb can continue.

Best part of the chart? "No Kanter is good Kanter" OMG! Lesson learned.... never have a mouthful of hot coffee when you read something that funny!

Great Chart for all those who say Serge has to be on the court when Kanter is playing. Serge potentially goes from a all defensive first team to a 105+ DRTG player. big risk that serge becomes incredibly frustated

[Soonerule]

Well, if you don't match you have cap next year, even w/ KD's cap hold. So you can throw money at a guy then if you'd like assuming your confident w/ Durant.

They wouldn't have much to play with. They will be around $90M with the KD hold, the QO to Waiters that is going to anger me greatly, the hold for Augustin, etc. Even if they don't offer a QO to Waiters they are still going to be in the $84M range with will leave them with around $8M to offer out. Given the increase in the cap that is not going to land anything significant. Kyle Singler just got $5M/yr before the cap went up. A player like him will be getting $8M/yr next year, which is just insane to me. So basically you are saving cap room for a potential Kyle Singler over having Kanter. There is no reason not to match when it comes to financial flexibility or future roster moves. It is very simple. Is the team better with Kanter? If no then let Portland have him. If yes then match. Given that Presti acquired him to be something OKC needed, a low post scoring option, and he is one of the best in the NBA at it you match and let Russ berate him like CP3 does DeAndre Jordan until Kanter either plays harder or submits to being traded and you get something you want/need out of him from a team that needs low post scoring.

No, I see it now. See it all too well. I have been racking my brains trying to figure out why in the hell Presti ever brought this guy here... tada! Kizz, do the math. See if I'm right, I'm too tired. If Presti doesn't trade Perk and then doesn't sign him at the end of the season or signs him for what he would be worth with little or no hope of ever being able to trade him... it all makes sense. The season was toast by February.... hear me out. There is one little factoid that gets forgotten about KD"s foot injury, that area of the body gives up trying to heal after 6 months of trying. He had the original surgery in October and the trade occurred in February, 4 months later. KD wasn't coming back and Presti just kept it under wraps, made the move for Kanter knowing he would demand a big contract. If Enes worked out great, if not .... trade money space..

[slick_watts]

Once they pass on Kanter they can never spend that money to add a player. So even if the end game isn't Kanter. You still have to match and then move him next off-season for a piece you'd prefer. You can't not match. You have to give him a chance to show that he has matured at 23 and is ready to play defense. If not you have him do nothing but play defense in practice and limit his touches during games until he agrees to accept a trade because he doesn't like the way you are neglecting his one ability. I can't believe Portland made the offer and part me wants to just stick them with him because there is no way they really want to pay him that money to be coming off the bench for Mason Plumlee. It was a great offer by Portland because OKC has no choice but to match and they get to screw with a division rival.

I disagree with having no choice but to match. I also think that Sam Presti has to realize what a sunk cost is at some point. Make a decision for the basketball court, not for value. This is KD's FA year. The team should be doing their best to put the best team on the court possible. Even if money weren't a factor, it just doesn't seem like (from the data we have) that Enes Kanter is likely to be a part of the best basketball product they can put out there. The value choice is the match the offer sheet because the team has so much invested in Kanter already and not matching, as you say, probably means not even utilizing the salary slot. If it was any other year, I'd agree with this.

But imagine a Reggie Jackson like situation evolving with Kanter this season if he doesn't get what he wants. He just forced his way out of Utah after very publicly deriding the organization. He signed an offer sheet with Portland without giving the Thunder an option to negotiate on the same terms (and perhaps initiate a s&t if they couldn't match the terms). That's not a possibility I want anywhere near this team in KD's FA season. And worse, matching the offer sheet means we can't trade Kanter for a year without his consent. So he'd dictate trade terms if it came down to it mid-season.

The odds of this type of drama occurring seem way h\higher to me than the odds that Kanter will either accept a reduced role or change his habits on defense so suddenly.

[Kizz Fastfists]

Not sure how were not in the tax next 2 years with KD re signing even with the cap raise that is anticipated. By my Calc we remain a tax payer unless I can have KD taking less than the max or I drop more assets

I think there are 9 players commited (if player options are picked up) at ~52 mill.
10 at 70 if Kanter os resigned.
That's ~30 mill to sign KD and have the same lineup we've had.

As of right now they only have $36M in guaranteed salary for 2016-2017. Russ, Ibaka, Collison and Payne. Singler will also be locked in, but I'm not sure if that contract has been signed yet and I haven't seen the exact figures. We'll call Singler $5M since that is the yearly average. So $41M for 5 players. Then you have Adams, McGary, Morrow and Roberson who they have team options on and I expect them to pick them all up which adds another $11M. That gives you the $52M for 9 that Podirk gave. On top of that you have KD's cap hold, around $27M for a max with a $90M cap. Then you have a cap holds for Augustin and Novak, another $7M. Then the QO for Waiters, $6.77M and PJ3, $3M. So in total they will be sitting around $96M, which will be over the projected cap, before doing anything.

They could renounce the rights to Waiters, Augustin, Novak and PJ3 and be around $10-12M under the cap. With Kanter it doesn't matter they are over the cap before the holds, etc. If you put Kanter, $18M, on top of that and they will be right around $114M. Keep in mind that is assuming they offer QOs and with the cap holds that would give them a full 15 player roster. So by just releasing Novak and not offering the QO to Waiters and PJ3 and giving Christon the roster spot that Augustin has they would be at 12 players and under the tax, which will be around $106M. If Waiters shows improvement, something he has not done as a pro yet, then you could look into keeping him and moving Kanter for space. If Roberson shows up this year shooting 35% from 3 then Waiters becomes completely irrelevant and you let him walk because you have your 3&D guy and have no need for inefficient ball dominant SG.

[Kizz Fastfists]

I disagree with having no choice but to match. I also think that Sam Presti has to realize what a sunk cost is at some point. Make a decision for the basketball court, not for value. This is KD's FA year. The team should be doing their best to put the best team on the court possible. Even if money weren't a factor, it just doesn't seem like (from the data we have) that Enes Kanter is likely to be a part of the best basketball product they can put out there. The value choice is the match the offer sheet because the team has so much invested in Kanter already and not matching, as you say, probably means not even utilizing the salary slot. If it was any other year, I'd agree with this.

But imagine a Reggie Jackson like situation evolving with Kanter this season if he doesn't get what he wants. He just forced his way out of Utah after very publicly deriding the organization. He signed an offer sheet with Portland without giving the Thunder an option to negotiate on the same terms (and perhaps initiate a s&t if they couldn't match the terms). That's not a possibility I want anywhere near this team in KD's FA season. And worse, matching the offer sheet means we can't trade Kanter for a year without his consent. So he'd dictate trade terms if it came down to it mid-season.

The odds of this type of drama occurring seem way h\higher to me than the odds that Kanter will either accept a reduced role or change his habits on defense so suddenly.

Was no one else really expecting this exact thing to happen? Presti made a lower offer for Kanter like he should have. Kanter's agent looked for the best contract. When a max offer came along he signed the offer sheet. Did you expect him to take less to stay in OKC where he had only been for 30ish games? Everyone did exactly what I expected, although I thought the offer sheet would be a little below the max, but this is exactly what Presti should have seen coming. He should be ready to match it. This is was not something that was unexpected. We'd been talking about the fact that Presti had to match whatever offer sheet Kanter signed from the day he was traded. Now that is real some of you are freaking out. Nothing has changed. Presti matches and things move on as expected.

The key part of your post is the decision has to be made for the basketball court. So if the team is better with Kanter than without you match. I find it very hard to believe anyone things the team is better off with Dakari Johnson or Kendrick Perkins over Kanter. However, if you do feel that the roster would be better without Kanter then they shouldn't match. The money is irrelevant after everything Presti has said about keeping Kanter.

[KD35Brah]

Summer league.

And we haven't seen Cam at all.

I'm fine with the Cam pick and think he's going to be great.

But just imagine a 6'6" SG with an NBA ready body who could be a great onball defender and shoot 40% from 3

[slick_watts]

Was no one else really expecting this exact thing to happen? Presti made a lower offer for Kanter like he should have. Kanter's agent looked for the best contract. When a max offer came along he signed the offer sheet. Did you expect him to take less to stay in OKC where he had only been for 30ish games?

I disagree here. I think everything proceeded how Presti expected up until Kanter signed an offer sheet. I don't think he expected him to do that. I think he expected him to see what else is out there, then come back and give the Thunder an opportunity to match the offer. Signing the offer sheet puts him behind the 8-ball, eliminating a possibility I'm sure Presti may have considered (s&t).

The key part of your post is the decision has to be made for the basketball court. So if the team is better with Kanter than without you match. I find it very hard to believe anyone things the team is better off with Dakari Johnson or Kendrick Perkins over Kanter. However, if you do feel that the roster would be better without Kanter then they shouldn't match. The money is irrelevant after everything Presti has said about keeping Kanter.

Where are you getting Dakari Johnson and Kendrick Perkins from? The roster as is has a full complement of effective lineup combinations. Adams-Ibaka-Durant-Roberson-Westbrook. Ibaka-Durant small ball. McGary-Collison bench lineups. What do Johnson and Perkins have to do with anything?

I agree that the money is irrelevant.

My guess (and laugh at me later if I'm wrong): after the meeting in Chicago, Presti had no intention of keeping Kanter. He immediately signed Singler to a long term contract, and has shown no urgency with shedding salary. We'll see what happens.

[kanterman]

I took the liberty of making you guys a salary cap table.



I worked w/ a 5 year max for KD next year. And w/ a 4 year max contracts for Broodi, Ibaka and Adams the year after. Not what I think is going to happen rather worst case scenario. Enes' contract is going to look like change in comparison to those max contracts.

I did the math my self so if there are mistakes I apologize.

[Soonerule]

Once they pass on Kanter they can never spend that money to add a player. So even if the end game isn't Kanter. You still have to match and then move him next off-season for a piece you'd prefer. You can't not match. You have to give him a chance to show that he has matured at 23 and is ready to play defense. If not you have him do nothing but play defense in practice and limit his touches during games until he agrees to accept a trade because he doesn't like the way you are neglecting his one ability. I can't believe Portland made the offer and part me wants to just stick them with him because there is no way they really want to pay him that money to be coming off the bench for Mason Plumlee. It was a great offer by Portland because OKC has no choice but to match and they get to screw with a division rival.

I disagree with having no choice but to match. I also think that Sam Presti has to realize what a sunk cost is at some point. Make a decision for the basketball court, not for value. This is KD's FA year. The team should be doing their best to put the best team on the court possible. Even if money weren't a factor, it just doesn't seem like (from the data we have) that Enes Kanter is likely to be a part of the best basketball product they can put out there. The value choice is the match the offer sheet because the team has so much invested in Kanter already and not matching, as you say, probably means not even utilizing the salary slot. If it was any other year, I'd agree with this.

But imagine a Reggie Jackson like situation evolving with Kanter this season if he doesn't get what he wants. He just forced his way out of Utah after very publicly deriding the organization. He signed an offer sheet with Portland without giving the Thunder an option to negotiate on the same terms (and perhaps initiate a s&t if they couldn't match the terms). That's not a possibility I want anywhere near this team in KD's FA season. And worse, matching the offer sheet means we can't trade Kanter for a year without his consent. So he'd dictate trade terms if it came down to it mid-season.

The odds of this type of drama occurring seem way h\higher to me than the odds that Kanter will either accept a reduced role or change his habits on defense so suddenly.

I think the X factor in this whole equation at this point going into KD's FA year is KD himself. What does he think about Kanter? If Durant is as convinced as many of Kanter's supporters are that Enes is the missing piece then I don't think there is any way for Presti to back out, especially if he thinks it gives him a bargaining chip to play no matter the results. KD is the key. Presti re-signs KD or all bets are off.

[Soonerule]

Was no one else really expecting this exact thing to happen? Presti made a lower offer for Kanter like he should have. Kanter's agent looked for the best contract. When a max offer came along he signed the offer sheet. Did you expect him to take less to stay in OKC where he had only been for 30ish games?

I disagree here. I think everything proceeded how Presti expected up until Kanter signed an offer sheet. I don't think he expected him to do that. I think he expected him to see what else is out there, then come back and give the Thunder an opportunity to match the offer. Signing the offer sheet puts him behind the 8-ball, eliminating a possibility I'm sure Presti may have considered (s&t).

The key part of your post is the decision has to be made for the basketball court. So if the team is better with Kanter than without you match. I find it very hard to believe anyone things the team is better off with Dakari Johnson or Kendrick Perkins over Kanter. However, if you do feel that the roster would be better without Kanter then they shouldn't match. The money is irrelevant after everything Presti has said about keeping Kanter.

Where are you getting Dakari Johnson and Kendrick Perkins from? The roster as is has a full complement of effective lineup combinations. Adams-Ibaka-Durant-Roberson-Westbrook. Ibaka-Durant small ball. McGary-Collison bench lineups. What do Johnson and Perkins have to do with anything?

I agree that the money is irrelevant.

My guess (and laugh at me later if I'm wrong): after the meeting in Chicago, Presti had no intention of keeping Kanter. He immediately signed Singler to a long term contract, and has shown no urgency with shedding salary. We'll see what happens.

To be perfectly honest slick, if Kanter signing that offer sheet surprised Presti I'm disappointed in him. Now, someone being crazy enough to offer one, that's another story... But everything in Kanter's MO points to him jumping on the best deal for Enes and exactly why all I see with him on the roster next season is trouble.

Kizz, if you pose the question that way, I honestly don't think the Thunder are better with Kanter so I don't match the offer unless I have no doubt that if I don't KD walks after next season. As I told slick, what we don't know at this point is what KD thinks of Kanter.

[bondom34]

I'm pretty spot on w/ Soonerule right now. I don't think they're really notably better with Kanter, but if KD or Russ do, then match. If not, that's a terrible contract for a guy I wouldn't give more than about 13 mil. That's honestly what I expected and wasn't thrilled with the 15 Presti offered, this deal is absurd.

[Soonerule]

I'm pretty spot on w/ Soonerule right now. I don't think they're really notably better with Kanter, but if KD or Russ do, then match. If not, that's a terrible contract for a guy I wouldn't give more than about 13 mil. That's honestly what I expected and wasn't thrilled with the 15 Presti offered, this deal is absurd.

Your about $5 mil over what I think he is worth but HERE HERE! lol

There is another really big upside to Presti not matching and that is sticking it big time to both Portland and Kanter.

[Kiwi_thunder]

I am with Slick in his believe that Presti doesn't intent to sign Kanter. Why because everything Kanter stands for is about getting his. Buckets, boards and getting paid - he doesn't appear to make winning his number one priority and he I cannot see him being happy on a team where he must know that he will be sharing time with Adams and will get benched if he doesn't perform on defense. The Portland gig is ideal for him, he can be number two, get all the points and boards and they aren't expected to win. Perfect.

[bondom34]

I am with Slick in his believe that Presti doesn't intent to sign Kanter. Why because everything Kanter stands for is about getting his. Buckets, boards and getting paid - he doesn't appear to make winning his number one priority and he I cannot see him being happy on a team where he must know that he will be sharing time with Adams and will get benched if he doesn't perform on defense. The Portland gig is ideal for him, he can be number two, get all the points and boards and they aren't expected to win. Perfect.

Welcome man!

[Marcus50]

I took the liberty of making you guys a salary cap table.



I worked w/ a 5 year max for KD next year. And w/ a 4 year max contracts for Broodi, Ibaka and Adams the year after. Not what I think is going to happen rather worst case scenario. Enes' contract is going to look like change in comparison to those max contracts.

I did the math my self so if there are mistakes I apologize.

KD aint going to sign that deal. I expect a 2 year deal with a player option after 1 year so he can cash in the following year

[RTG HD]

Steve Adams won't get max but it also won't be a roster of 7 players. Some of the players could get replaced by draft picks each year of course but it is still salary.

[RTG HD]

I think Kanter gets matched and Novak gets moved at the price if some second round picks to an east coast team. That brings the tax under $10 million this year and dealing with a new Waiters contract is an issue for next year. Of course if Waiters has a good season it becomes hard to keep him in an offseason lacking in free agents and with many teams having cap space to throw around.