2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

[Pillendreher]

so the defense is 2.5pp100 better than #2 boston after taking strength of opponent into account.

If you look at the average DRtG/A of the other 29 teams, the Thunder are actually 8.4 (!!!) pp100p better defensively than the average NBA team this season. If they kept that up throughout the season, that must be some kind of record one has to assume.

The numbers have fluctuated quite a bit since it's still early in the season, but they're actually on the verge of being in the Top 10 in every single one of the four factors defensively:

opp eFG%: 4th
opp FTr: 12th (this is big since they have been sending teams to the FT line quite often so far)
opp TOV%: 1st
opp ORB%: 12th

If only anybody on this team could shoot.

[ThunderBolt]

Weird. Hearing from 3 different Raptors fans that the word in Toronto was Patterson had a cocaine problem.

Anybody else hear of this?


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

Yes I read that last year on their board

[Old Man Game]

Weird. Hearing from 3 different Raptors fans that the word in Toronto was Patterson had a cocaine problem.

Anybody else hear of this?


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

Yes I read that last year on their board

If he could hit shots would anyone really care though?

[slick_watts]

[thekaoswithin]

I'm from Toronto, it's well known here that 2Pat is a party animal. Seen in our clubs frequently all the time, even in playoffs. Cocaine I have also heard locally but the sourcing for that is a little more shady.

[ThunderBolt]

I'm from Toronto, it's well known here that 2Pat is a party animal. Seen in our clubs frequently all the time, even in playoffs. Cocaine I have also heard locally but the sourcing for that is a little more shady.

That’s basically what I read when I was reading about him on the Toronto boards after they cut him and we had just missed out on Rudy gay.

[slick_watts]

so i did a quick exercise. i adjusted all player 3pt% this year to their cumulative 3pt% the prior three seasons. for players with less than three years experience, i used career through 2017-18. for rookies i just used this year's %. with that adjustment, and on the same volume of shots currently, our team 3pt% goes from 30.8% to 34.5%.

[bondom34]

Mini Melo?

[ThunderBolt]

so i did a quick exercise. i adjusted all player 3pt% this year to their cumulative 3pt% the prior three seasons. for players with less than three years experience, i used career through 2017-18. for rookies i just used this year's %. with that adjustment, and on the same volume of shots currently, our team 3pt% goes from 30.8% to 34.5%.

So do you assume that the difference will average out or there is a reason for the struggles?

[slick_watts]

Mini Melo?

i posted this with a little tongue in cheek, but taking a close look at the first 20 games of schroder experience... maybe not melo bad, but possibly kanter bad. someone that's bad but the media can get away with describing as a 'luxury'.

the westbrook-schroder-george-grant-adams 'closing' lineup is -5.5pp100, and westbrook-schroder as a player pair is 6pp100 worse on defense than all other westbrook lineups.

the trade and schroder himself are getting far too much premature praise. i saw it described as the trade of the summer, already.

So do you assume that the difference will average out or there is a reason for the struggles?

westbrook, abrines, felton and patterson seem the most likely to regress to our benefit.

grant and schroder seem the most likely to regress not to our benefit.

big x-factor if he continues to play big minutes is ferg, who is at 26% for the season but my adjustment used last year's 33%.

[ThunderBolt]

Mini Melo?

i posted this with a little tongue in cheek, but taking a close look at the first 20 games of schroder experience... maybe not melo bad, but possibly kanter bad. someone that's bad but the media can get away with describing as a 'luxury'.

the westbrook-schroder-george-grant-adams 'closing' lineup is -5.5pp100, and westbrook-schroder as a player pair is 6pp100 worse on defense than all other westbrook lineups.

the trade and schroder himself are getting far too much premature praise. i saw it described as the trade of the summer, already.

So do you assume that the difference will average out or there is a reason for the struggles?

westbrook, abrines, felton and patterson seem the most likely to regress to our benefit.

grant and schroder seem the most likely to regress not to our benefit.

big x-factor if he continues to play big minutes is ferg, who is at 26% for the season but my adjustment used last year's 33%.

When you figured total volume did you do it based on average 3pa per game for each player or the team as a whole? Obviously Ferguson won’t shot twelve threes in a game.

[slick_watts]

Mini Melo?

i posted this with a little tongue in cheek, but taking a close look at the first 20 games of schroder experience... maybe not melo bad, but possibly kanter bad. someone that's bad but the media can get away with describing as a 'luxury'.

the westbrook-schroder-george-grant-adams 'closing' lineup is -5.5pp100, and westbrook-schroder as a player pair is 6pp100 worse on defense than all other westbrook lineups.

the trade and schroder himself are getting far too much premature praise. i saw it described as the trade of the summer, already.

So do you assume that the difference will average out or there is a reason for the struggles?

westbrook, abrines, felton and patterson seem the most likely to regress to our benefit.

grant and schroder seem the most likely to regress not to our benefit.

big x-factor if he continues to play big minutes is ferg, who is at 26% for the season but my adjustment used last year's 33%.

When you figured total volume did you do it based on average 3pa per game for each player or the team as a whole? Obviously Ferguson won’t shot twelve threes in a game.

i didn't do anything with volume, just figured what team 3pt % would be if everyone took the same # of threes as they have this year but at the adjusted percentages.

ferguson has attempted 46 threes or something like that even with the games he's missed, so +/- 8% for him would make a big deal to team %.

it just shows that we're shooting way worse from three than expected even with current shot distribution.

[ThunderBolt]

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/position/5

[hardenASG13]

so the defense is 2.5pp100 better than #2 boston after taking strength of opponent into account.

if this continues, billy deserves >a lot< of credit imo. with 'dre out, losing adrian griffin, bringing in an incompetent to replace him... it would be a scott brooks, post-ron adams like achievement only x100 if this hold the rest of the year.

Or maybe dre has been wildly overrated by the stat heads, who have comically argued how irreplaceable he is defensively to justify him being so bad on offense. His absence has not been noticeable. Keep choosing to ignore it if you want, but I was right. It didnt show last year bc his replacements were brewer and huestis (out of the league), and melo was playing heavy minutes (out of the league). Keep saying I was wrong if it pleases you, but then what do you make of the fact that the D has been extremely good with competent role players, without Roberson, like I've always said?

bruh.. you were wrong. the role players who were better than 'dre last year, according to you, were abrines, ferguson, huestis, brewer, basically everyone. you called him the worst offensive sg in the nba. two of those four guys are still on the team and now they're suddenly adequate 'dre replacements. lol. none of this was correct!

it's certainly possible that 'dre's impact on defense was overstated! but it does not seem likely with the reams of evidence against over the course of three+ seasons. it seems a lot more likely to me that the thunder are benefiting from melo no longer being around and various schematic changes to get the defense to function better without 'dre. i.e. adams' role in pnr defense has changed drastically.

if you're not excited about the prospect of adding a healthy 'dre to this defense i dunno what to tell you. we could have something real special here defensively if he's ok.

Don't think I ever advocated for Ferguson he has looked lost since day 1. Abrines has improved since last year.....do you disagree? I'll admit I was too high on what I thought huestis could do offensively, it turns out he isn't an NBA caliber player. Same w brewer, who also is out of the league.

I've always said he could be replaced by any competent nba level player and the D wouldn't fall off, while the offense would improve, you know, since nobody else plays a sg who can basically only dunk or shoot a layup, while creating nothing for teammates, 25-30mpg. That's what we are seeing in an improved abrines, Schroeder, diallo, and Burton, who I think all are NBA level rotation pieces and clearly better than roberson offensively. I've enjoyed the offense not going into maddening, stagnant cold stretches for long periods of the game on a consistent basis.

I am excited about adding Roberson to the rotation (as long as he/Donovan are still giving up on parking him in the corner where he kills them) but think he's better suited for a significantly reduced role, based on matchups (his defense isnt always needed. If you deny how smooth the offense has looked this year, dating back as far as I can remember, then you are lying to yourself. Removing an extremely limited Roberson probably has a lot to do with that. The defense is still very good, since defense is a team thing, without him and with the competent replacements. Not sure how you can argue that either. Even the numbers, which have been your main arguing point, would agree with it.

[hardenASG13]

Mini Melo?

You guys realize Schroeder does things in terms of activity, collapsing/ probing the D, stabilizing the second unit, applying ball pressure and helping to close driving gaps off the ball (hes very good at that)that melo didn't, which are having a major positive effect on the team, right? Those things aren't in the numbers. What a ridiculous comparison, schroeder and the team have been great.

[ThunderBolt]

Or maybe dre has been wildly overrated by the stat heads, who have comically argued how irreplaceable he is defensively to justify him being so bad on offense. His absence has not been noticeable. Keep choosing to ignore it if you want, but I was right. It didnt show last year bc his replacements were brewer and huestis (out of the league), and melo was playing heavy minutes (out of the league). Keep saying I was wrong if it pleases you, but then what do you make of the fact that the D has been extremely good with competent role players, without Roberson, like I've always said?

bruh.. you were wrong. the role players who were better than 'dre last year, according to you, were abrines, ferguson, huestis, brewer, basically everyone. you called him the worst offensive sg in the nba. two of those four guys are still on the team and now they're suddenly adequate 'dre replacements. lol. none of this was correct!

it's certainly possible that 'dre's impact on defense was overstated! but it does not seem likely with the reams of evidence against over the course of three+ seasons. it seems a lot more likely to me that the thunder are benefiting from melo no longer being around and various schematic changes to get the defense to function better without 'dre. i.e. adams' role in pnr defense has changed drastically.

if you're not excited about the prospect of adding a healthy 'dre to this defense i dunno what to tell you. we could have something real special here defensively if he's ok.

Don't think I ever advocated for Ferguson he has looked lost since day 1. Abrines has improved since last year.....do you disagree? I'll admit I was too high on what I thought huestis could do offensively, it turns out he isn't an NBA caliber player. Same w brewer, who also is out of the league.

I've always said he could be replaced by any competent nba level player and the D wouldn't fall off, while the offense would improve, you know, since nobody else plays a sg who can basically only dunk or shoot a layup, while creating nothing for teammates, 25-30mpg. That's what we are seeing in an improved abrines, Schroeder, diallo, and Burton, who I think all are NBA level rotation pieces and clearly better than roberson offensively. I've enjoyed the offense not going into maddening, stagnant cold stretches for long periods of the game on a consistent basis.

I am excited about adding Roberson to the rotation (as long as he/Donovan are still giving up on parking him in the corner where he kills them) but think he's better suited for a significantly reduced role, based on matchups (his defense isnt always needed. If you deny how smooth the offense has looked this year, dating back as far as I can remember, then you are lying to yourself. Removing an extremely limited Roberson probably has a lot to do with that. The defense is still very good, since defense is a team thing, without him and with the competent replacements. Not sure how you can argue that either. Even the numbers, which have been your main arguing point, would agree with it.

The problem is every time someone has a good game you deem them a competent replacement for Roberson. I’m as hopeful as anyone for guys Diallo and Burton but you’re so eager to be right about this you jump the gun with every player that has a good game.

[bondom34]

Mini Melo?

You guys realize Schroeder does things in terms of activity, collapsing/ probing the D, stabilizing the second unit, applying ball pressure and helping to close driving gaps off the ball (hes very good at that)that melo didn't, which are having a major positive effect on the team, right? Those things aren't in the numbers. What a ridiculous comparison, schroeder and the team have been great.

Was a joke, he's been solid. Not great, but not awful. Melo would have stabilized 2nd units too.

[spearsy23]

. When have we ever seen a this play with him?


.

http://www.nba.com/video/2018/02/11/0021700839-mem-okc-play7

It did happen a couple of times last season.

You know how I know that that whole thing is fake? Raymond Felton supposedly threw a lob pass that connected. Yeah, right.

This was actually the game I went to last year, the lob was so awful that it made the play spectacular. Some random guy and I were totally geeking about the catch more so than the finish.

[slick_watts]

Don't think I ever advocated for Ferguson he has looked lost since day 1.

you began advocating for him after the lakers game but before the thunder acquired corey brewer. you and a lot of other thunder fan casuals, actually.

Abrines has improved since last year.....do you disagree?

alex abrines is shooting 29.9% from three and looking real bad. i think he should start and i think he should definitely pick up the shooting if he continues to get an opportunity... but looks improved? really?

I'll admit I was too high on what I thought huestis could do offensively, it turns out he isn't an NBA caliber player. Same w brewer, who also is out of the league.

so waiters, brewer, huestis, ferguson, abrines... all advocated by you at various points over 'dre and all relative failures over the long run. tell me why i'm supposed to take it seriously now so early in the season?

That's what we are seeing in an improved abrines, Schroeder, diallo, and Burton, who I think all are NBA level rotation pieces and clearly better than roberson offensively. I've enjoyed the offense not going into maddening, stagnant cold stretches for long periods of the game on a consistent basis.

the thunder offense with the andre roberson starters (keep in mind, melo was in this group) were better last year relative to league average than lineups with westbrook and schroder together have been this year.

better than westbrook and abrines lineups this year, better than westbrook and burton lineups this year, better than westbrook and diallo lineups this year. the only player pair wing with westbrook who has exceeded 'dre starters last year is terrance ferguson-- who is shooting 25% from three with high turnovers.

this is what happens when you use the dang eye test for everything, you have no sense of what's actually occurring on the court. the thunder have the 25th ranked offense this year if you take opponent defensive strength into account and you're here praising the smooth offense devoid of stagnant cold stretches. it makes -no sense-.

If you deny how smooth the offense has looked this year, dating back as far as I can remember, then you are lying to yourself.

i don't care how it looks, i care how it performs. and the offense has been atrocious this season so far. the only player pair 'dre replacement wing with westbrook who has had success is ferguson. and he's been atrocious offensively so it's a really glib statement to assign the credit for the offensive improvement to ferguson over roberson.

The defense is still very good, since defense is a team thing, without him and with the competent replacements. Not sure how you can argue that either. Even the numbers, which have been your main arguing point, would agree with it.

the defense has been excellent! i'm open to the possibility that 'dre's impact was overstated on defense because i do not close myself to possibilities until evidence supports a conclusion. but the overwhelming preponderance of evidence suggests that 'dre is not overstated, and the defense being great has a lot more to do with removing melo, schematic changes, etc. than anything. the performance defensively of westbrook-schroder lineups relative to westbrook-anyone attests to that.

what would you say to the possibility that the defense can be even better, and the offense can be better too? because relative to our other options, when you look at the thunder last year with dre and take melo into account-- that seems to be what could be possible with a healthy return.

[slick_watts]

Mini Melo?

You guys realize Schroeder does things in terms of activity, collapsing/ probing the D, stabilizing the second unit, applying ball pressure and helping to close driving gaps off the ball (hes very good at that)that melo didn't, which are having a major positive effect on the team, right? Those things aren't in the numbers. What a ridiculous comparison, schroeder and the team have been great.

Was a joke, he's been solid. Not great, but not awful. Melo would have stabilized 2nd units too.

i'd like to clarify that i was not joking with my comments on schroder / kanter.