2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

[slick_watts]

1. Even if we absorb Snell into Melo TPE this year?

that does not make a difference, we're still adding salary.

2. Can I use DRPM here? Ferguson DRPM = -0.88. Snell DRPM= -0.93. That’s this year. If you want to back to Snell (20 mpg) on the Bulls, he was ranked 3rd in DRPM just ahead of Roberson and only getting beat out by Danny Green and Jeremy Lamb (18mpg). We just need him to be a be a better version of Ferguson.

snell's drpm rankings among sg:

2013-14 36 of 45
2014-15 21 of 48
2015-16 3 of 51
2016-17 35 of 65
2017-18 73 of 87

he's had one standout year in drpm. 2015-16 is also the only season where his shot contesting numbers look impressive. i'm initially skeptical of wing defenders who are thought of as 'good' even though they don't get blocks and steals. snell gets even fewer of those than ferguson, who is not a stand out in that regard.

i just don't see it with snell, it would be a foolish thing for them to gamble away not only ferguson's potential future (having invested so much time into it already) but $22 million in tax payments and the melo tpe for the hope that tony snell could replicate his one decent season.

[retrobro90]

Snell is awful. Ask any intelligent Bucks fan. Imagine if Ferguson could do even less off the bounce. We really gonna trade a 20 year old on a rookie deal for a trash fish on a terrible contract? This is the worst trade proposal I've seen on this board since people legitimately wanted MCW because they think basketball is played on a DRPM spreadsheet.

[slick_watts]

Snell is awful. Ask any intelligent Bucks fan. Imagine if Ferguson could do even less off the bounce. We really gonna trade a 20 year old on a rookie deal for a trash fish on a terrible contract? This is the worst trade proposal I've seen on this board since people legitimately wanted MCW because they think basketball is played on a DRPM spreadsheet.

they can't use mcw properly in houston because their offense is reliant on everyone being about to make threes but he'd be great here.

also, i watched a lot of mcw video last year and looked into his shot contesting and defense which is stylistically similar to roberson. he would be a good fit-- and that's not a conclusion that was reached by just looking at a 'drpm spreadsheet', thank you.

[getrichordie]

There is no way we move Ferguson for snell. George isn’t going to be the staring 3 and the backup 4. He can’t play 48 minute a game.

And if i remember correctly when paul george was in Indiana Larry Bird wanted him to play PF and George said no.

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7% of Paul’s minutes have come at the 4 this year. Wood should be able to play @ back-up 4 just fine with Snell being on the wing. George doesn’t have to get all of Patterson’s minutes.

Furthermore, Indiana wanted to start George at the 4 and play him there primarily. I don’t think George is opposed to playing small ball 4 (sparingly) if it means succeeding and winning.


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[Mattv]

There is no way we move Ferguson for snell. George isn’t going to be the staring 3 and the backup 4. He can’t play 48 minute a game.

And if i remember correctly when paul george was in Indiana Larry Bird wanted him to play PF and George said no.

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7% of Paul’s minutes have come at the 4 this year. Wood should be able to play @ back-up 4 just fine with Snell being on the wing. George doesn’t have to get all of Patterson’s minutes.

Furthermore, Indiana wanted to start George at the 4 and play him there primarily. I don’t think George is opposed to playing small ball 4 (sparingly) if it means succeeding and winning.


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Oh i agree he would mind play there a few min per game.Heck as much as they switch nowadays everone technically plays the 4 proubly 5% to 10% a game.

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[ThunderBolt]

It comes down to if we can get anything decent for Patterson and a 2rp. I don’t think we move much more than that unless it’s filler.

[Mattv]

I read somewhere that the bulls want to trade Justin Holiday all they where asking is a player closer to there core guys age.
Holiday for Tlc?
And if not would Hoilday and Portis for Ferguson and P Pat make sense for both teams only bad thing for Okc is they both only have 1 year left under contract.



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[getrichordie]

I’m pretty much at the point where I want to trade Patterson sooner rather than later. I’d hate for his value to drop due to poor play later in year.


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[getrichordie]

I read somewhere that the bulls want to trade Justin Holiday all they where asking is a player closer to there core guys age.
Holiday for Tlc?
And if not would Hoilday and Portis for Ferguson and P Pat make sense for both teams only bad thing for Okc is they both only have 1 year left under contract.

I don’t see Presti making this move. It’s a little short-sighted. We need to make moves where the players we are bringing back have at least 2 years on their contract, and no more than 3 I would presume. The reason being is that, given the current salary construction of this team, Presti has little to no wiggle room in free agency next year with Noel possibly opting out and Abrines being a RFA. Another real possibility is that Patterson could also opt out if he finds more money.

If we do that trade, you are pretty much killing all meaningful flexibility.



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[Mattv]

I’m pretty much at the point where I want to trade Patterson sooner rather than later. I’d hate for his value to drop due to poor play later in year.


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Does he have any value?He has played like crap the last year and a half.He did look better last night though on offense and defense maybe he keeps it up and starts playing well.

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[getrichordie]

I’m pretty much at the point where I want to trade Patterson sooner rather than later. I’d hate for his value to drop due to poor play later in year.


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Does he have any value?He has played like crap the last year and a half.He did look better last night though on offense and defense maybe he keeps it up and starts playing well.

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I think he still has a little value around the league, albeit not much.


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[Old Man Game]

I'm disappointed to see people already coming up with trades for Ferguson. This is a guy who has been pretty effective this year defensively.

[getrichordie]

I'm disappointed to see people already coming up with trades for Ferguson. This is a guy who has been pretty effective this year defensively.

Oh, I agree 100% that he’s been effective. But I think the idea is to make us contenders for this year, next year, and hopefully(!) the year after that.


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[CROklahoma]

We aint trading Ferg, and his contract, especially not for bottom trash like Snell.
Fergs defensive impact will be 2x greater than Snell's ever soon ...

[ThunderBolt]

Snell is awful. Ask any intelligent Bucks fan. Imagine if Ferguson could do even less off the bounce. We really gonna trade a 20 year old on a rookie deal for a trash fish on a terrible contract? This is the worst trade proposal I've seen on this board since people legitimately wanted MCW because they think basketball is played on a DRPM spreadsheet.

they can't use mcw properly in houston because their offense is reliant on everyone being about to make threes but he'd be great here.

also, i watched a lot of mcw video last year and looked into his shot contesting and defense which is stylistically similar to roberson. he would be a good fit-- and that's not a conclusion that was reached by just looking at a 'drpm spreadsheet', thank you.

So I’m curious, I watch Ferguson and he seems to be playing defense but the analytics aren’t completely supporting this yet. Why?

[slick_watts]

Snell is awful. Ask any intelligent Bucks fan. Imagine if Ferguson could do even less off the bounce. We really gonna trade a 20 year old on a rookie deal for a trash fish on a terrible contract? This is the worst trade proposal I've seen on this board since people legitimately wanted MCW because they think basketball is played on a DRPM spreadsheet.

they can't use mcw properly in houston because their offense is reliant on everyone being about to make threes but he'd be great here.

also, i watched a lot of mcw video last year and looked into his shot contesting and defense which is stylistically similar to roberson. he would be a good fit-- and that's not a conclusion that was reached by just looking at a 'drpm spreadsheet', thank you.

So I’m curious, I watch Ferguson and he seems to be playing defense but the analytics aren’t completely supporting this yet. Why?

rapm and all prior informed metrics are designed to be skeptical of short term outliers and ferg himself only has barely over 1k minutes played to begin with.

most analytics we talk about, or at least all rapm-liked ones, are predictive rather than descriptive. which is why they will appear to be skeptical.

something like DBPM would be descriptive, and ferguson currently has a decent DBPM this season. DBPM is sorta shoddy but you get the point.

[ThunderBolt]

they can't use mcw properly in houston because their offense is reliant on everyone being about to make threes but he'd be great here.

also, i watched a lot of mcw video last year and looked into his shot contesting and defense which is stylistically similar to roberson. he would be a good fit-- and that's not a conclusion that was reached by just looking at a 'drpm spreadsheet', thank you.

So I’m curious, I watch Ferguson and he seems to be playing defense but the analytics aren’t completely supporting this yet. Why?

rapm and all prior informed metrics are designed to be skeptical of short term outliers and ferg himself only has barely over 1k minutes played to begin with.

most analytics we talk about, or at least all rapm-liked ones, are predictive rather than descriptive. which is why they will appear to be skeptical.

something like DBPM would be descriptive, and ferguson currently has a decent DBPM this season. DBPM is sorta shoddy but you get the point.

After how many minutes will RAPM no longer be skeptical?

[getrichordie]

We aint trading Ferg, and his contract, especially not for bottom trash like Snell.
Fergs defensive impact will be 2x greater than Snell's ever soon ...

So, just so we are clear, you think Ferguson’s defensive impact will be twice what Snell’s best impact was, right?

Let’s say you are making the trade today.

As far as the basketball player you are putting on the court today, are you taking Ferguson’s defensive impact + his offensive impact over Snell’s defensive impact + offensive impact?


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[Dn4sty]

We aint trading Ferg, and his contract, especially not for bottom trash like Snell.
Fergs defensive impact will be 2x greater than Snell's ever soon ...

So, just so we are clear, you think Ferguson’s defensive impact will be twice what Snell’s best impact was, right?

Let’s say you are making the trade today.

As far as the basketball player you are putting on the court today, are you taking Ferguson’s defensive impact + his offensive impact over Snell’s defensive impact + offensive impact?


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I think Snell is better today, but I’m not convinced you move Ferg or Diallo unless the player you are getting in return is significantly better than just letting Ferg and Diallo develop.

[Dn4sty]

We aint trading Ferg, and his contract, especially not for bottom trash like Snell.
Fergs defensive impact will be 2x greater than Snell's ever soon ...

Loadin’ that hot take cannon there ain’t you