2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1381 » by Dn4sty » Wed Dec 5, 2018 5:17 am

getrichordie wrote:
Bergmaniac wrote:Possible cause for concern is that since Westbrook came back from the ankle sprain, your offense is back to being terrible when he is on the bench. 83.7 ORTG when he has been on the bench in the last 7 games. Patterson not being able to hit anything is a big reason for that.


Patterson sucking and Abrines, Ferguson, and Diallo all missing time hurts too.


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I think this accounts for a pretty significant part of it. You have a backup PF who has been one of the worst players in the NBA to start the season, combined with a weird sickness thing and a rash of sprained ankles.
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1382 » by Pillendreher » Wed Dec 5, 2018 10:16 am

https://www.welcometoloudcity.com/2018/12/3/18124941/thunder-vs-pistons-score-2018-adams-george-grant

Do you get the feeling this team has begun to take on a little of Paul George’s persona? To be sure Russ will always have his fingerprint on everything, but the way the team has systematically taken down the last three teams, largely in the same methodical way, resembles how George doesn’t force much of anything. He moves within the rhythms of the game on both ends and leaves his mark.


I think this is an interesting thought. It certainly looks like they're playing with more of a "systematic approach". Less chaotic, more disciplined and structured.
"I don't know of any player that, when the shot goes up, he doesn't want it to go in," Donovan said
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1383 » by Pillendreher » Wed Dec 5, 2018 12:50 pm

For what it's worth (I'm a little sceptical towars removing data by criteria that are unclear and can lead to biased results), cleaningtheglass.com currently has us as the 2nd best team by NetRtG at +8.2 in (again: by their definition) non-garbage time minutes (I think the jump actually comes from them mostly winning games by a big margin (they have the 2nd best NetRtG in wins at +15.3) and then not being fully commited in the 4th quarter)): 14th in offense, 1st in defense. Per cleaningtheglass, we're the only team in the whole league that ranks 10th or better in each of the four defensive four factors. Seven teams crack the top 10 in those defensive four factors twice (SAS, POR, MIN, PHI, LAL, TOR, DET) and only Boston crack the top 10 thrice.

Btw: 22 games in and they're still at just 3 games (!) where the opposing offense outperformed its season average (per stats.nba.com):

Image

So far they've kept opposing offenses to 8.06 pp100p below their season average. :o
"I don't know of any player that, when the shot goes up, he doesn't want it to go in," Donovan said
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1384 » by Old Man Game » Wed Dec 5, 2018 1:22 pm

Pillendreher wrote:https://www.welcometoloudcity.com/2018/12/3/18124941/thunder-vs-pistons-score-2018-adams-george-grant

Do you get the feeling this team has begun to take on a little of Paul George’s persona? To be sure Russ will always have his fingerprint on everything, but the way the team has systematically taken down the last three teams, largely in the same methodical way, resembles how George doesn’t force much of anything. He moves within the rhythms of the game on both ends and leaves his mark.


I think this is an interesting thought. It certainly looks like they're playing with more of a "systematic approach". Less chaotic, more disciplined and structured.


I love this thought. I think the defensive identity that the team has established definitely aligns with the sentiment.
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1385 » by slick_watts » Wed Dec 5, 2018 1:49 pm

i think that thought is a reach on defense, since they are playing similarly to last year on defense just better. and a laughable notion on offense considering george's comments over the summer.

geore has been outstanding to start the year overall and i think that can be appreciated without attaching this sort of narrative to him. our gambling style on both ends is still very reminiscent of westbrook's identity.
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1386 » by Old Man Game » Wed Dec 5, 2018 1:57 pm

slick_watts wrote:i think that thought is a reach on defense, since they are playing similarly to last year on defense just better. and a laughable notion on offense considering george's comments over the summer.

geore has been outstanding to start the year overall and i think that can be appreciated without attaching this sort of narrative to him. our gambling style on both ends is still very reminiscent of westbrook's identity.


Don't get so caught up in minutia that you miss the forest for the trees, bro.
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1387 » by Pillendreher » Wed Dec 5, 2018 2:25 pm

slick_watts wrote:since they are playing similarly to last year on defense just better.


Similar in what regard? Style or performance?
"I don't know of any player that, when the shot goes up, he doesn't want it to go in," Donovan said
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1388 » by getrichordie » Wed Dec 5, 2018 2:26 pm

Old Man Game wrote:
slick_watts wrote:i think that thought is a reach on defense, since they are playing similarly to last year on defense just better. and a laughable notion on offense considering george's comments over the summer.

geore has been outstanding to start the year overall and i think that can be appreciated without attaching this sort of narrative to him. our gambling style on both ends is still very reminiscent of westbrook's identity.


Don't get so caught up in minutia that you miss the forest for the trees, bro.


It’s just funny that someone can believe that a team can “take on” a single player’s identity.


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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1389 » by slick_watts » Wed Dec 5, 2018 2:33 pm

Pillendreher wrote:
slick_watts wrote:since they are playing similarly to last year on defense just better.


Similar in what regard? Style or performance?


it's mostly the same we did last year. swapping melo for grant (and noel for grant in the backups) has made a big difference. but yeah pretty much the same, with the weakness being weak side shooters due to how we help. i guess there have been more 'wrinkles' game to game i.e. the blake doubling.

performance? obviously they are not going to perform this well the entire year. i expect it'll be similar to the robes defense last year.
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1390 » by hardenASG13 » Wed Dec 5, 2018 4:10 pm

slick_watts wrote:
Pillendreher wrote:
slick_watts wrote:since they are playing similarly to last year on defense just better.


Similar in what regard? Style or performance?


it's mostly the same we did last year. swapping melo for grant (and noel for grant in the backups) has made a big difference. but yeah pretty much the same, with the weakness being weak side shooters due to how we help. i guess there have been more 'wrinkles' game to game i.e. the blake doubling.

performance? obviously they are not going to perform this well the entire year. i expect it'll be similar to the robes defense last year.


Bruh, you (and almost everyone on this board) have spent years arguing against this notion (upgrading a few spots to make Roberson irrrlevant). You scoffed at the notion that the defense in fact didn't need him, because he was so incredible defensively and there was no way they could replace him. Well, it turns out there was a way. Fill the roster full of NBA talent (they added a backup center for near the minimum, which they could do every year, gave grant the minutes he deserves (which I've been advocating for), and added Schroeder who I told you was a better defender than he showed on a tanking Atlanta, a concept alot of you guys couldn't wrap your head around. )

This season, without Roberson and with the defense playing so well is making you and others look pretty bad. Just think if they'd done this when they had KD (grant is the man, but he's not young ibaka). All your years of stats on his impact didn't take into context that his impact was only due to how bad his on roster replacements were. It was a mirage as we are seeing this season. The D is really good, so is the offense and team.
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1391 » by Bergmaniac » Wed Dec 5, 2018 4:22 pm

The offense isn't really good at all, it's mediocre at best (17th in ORTG despite playing a lot of bad defensive teams, your adjusted for opponent strength ORTG is 26th in the league). It was never as bad when Roberson played, not even in 2016/17.
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1392 » by hardenASG13 » Wed Dec 5, 2018 4:31 pm

Bergmaniac wrote:The offense isn't really good at all, it's mediocre at best (17th in ORTG despite playing a lot of bad defensive teams, your adjusted for opponent strength ORTG is 26th in the league). It was never as bad when Roberson played, not even in 2016/17.


They had Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. That could've had something to do with it. Those teams never hit their potential offensively, in large part bc of Roberson playing 30mpg. I don't care what their ortg was. It was always a grind, they just happened to have 2 of the maybe top 20 offensive players in history on those teams. He should've been shelved, with NBA level replacements (always available) added years ago. It's really a shame they squandered it (I don't blame KD for leaving it). Hopefully they can still shock the world this year and/or next.
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1393 » by ThunderBolt » Wed Dec 5, 2018 7:18 pm

hardenASG13 wrote:
Bergmaniac wrote:The offense isn't really good at all, it's mediocre at best (17th in ORTG despite playing a lot of bad defensive teams, your adjusted for opponent strength ORTG is 26th in the league). It was never as bad when Roberson played, not even in 2016/17.


They had Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. That could've had something to do with it. Those teams never hit their potential offensively, in large part bc of Roberson playing 30mpg. I don't care what their ortg was. It was always a grind, they just happened to have 2 of the maybe top 20 offensive players in history on those teams. He should've been shelved, with NBA level replacements (always available) added years ago. It's really a shame they squandered it (I don't blame KD for leaving it). Hopefully they can still shock the world this year and/or next.

If you don’t care what the offensive rating was with Roberson then why should anyone care what the defense looks like without Roberson? I could just argue that regardless of how good it looks, Paul George and Russ are just having to work too hard without Andre out there.
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1394 » by spearsy23 » Wed Dec 5, 2018 7:48 pm

hardenASG13 wrote:This season, without Roberson and with the defense playing so well is making you and others look pretty bad. Just think if they'd done this when they had KD (grant is the man, but he's not young ibaka). All your years of stats on his impact didn't take into context that his impact was only due to how bad his on roster replacements were. It was a mirage as we are seeing this season. The D is really good, so is the offense and team.

Bring good on defense this season doesn't invalidate what Roberson has done for the past five years in any way.
“If you're getting stops and you're making threes and the other team's not scoring, that's when you're going to see a huge point difference there,” coach Billy Donovan said.
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1395 » by hardenASG13 » Wed Dec 5, 2018 8:40 pm

spearsy23 wrote:
hardenASG13 wrote:This season, without Roberson and with the defense playing so well is making you and others look pretty bad. Just think if they'd done this when they had KD (grant is the man, but he's not young ibaka). All your years of stats on his impact didn't take into context that his impact was only due to how bad his on roster replacements were. It was a mirage as we are seeing this season. The D is really good, so is the offense and team.

Bring good on defense this season doesn't invalidate what Roberson has done for the past five years in any way.


Keep telling yourself that. You guys have argued for years he was irreplaceable and extremely valuable. You would've scoffed at the notion that a guy like shroeder and abrines taking his minutes would work, and would've cited their Drtg, net rating, etc., whatever stat you wanted to pull to make your argument look good. You know that is true, as the arguments have been had many times.

They haven't missed a beat without him this year, flat out. Don't even notice he's gone. Some went as far to say he was the 2nd or 3rd most valuable player on the team, which is just laughable. It's a shame because prior to last year, the top end talent was clearly enough to win a title on this team, yet they had to settle with roberson, a 1 way defensive specialist who can dribble in the half court, collapse a defense, shoot 3s, shoot off a dribble, a pull up, can't shoot midrange, and can't post up. He wasn't just limited, all he could do was shoot layups or dunks he didn't generate. There is a reason nobody else in the league uses guys like that, and hasn't for about 10 years, believe it or not.

It turns out playing 5 on 5 on both ends is a good thing, and like I always told it would be, the defense is fine without him. Not sure how you can argue otherwise?
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1396 » by hardenASG13 » Wed Dec 5, 2018 8:41 pm

ThunderBolt wrote:
hardenASG13 wrote:
Bergmaniac wrote:The offense isn't really good at all, it's mediocre at best (17th in ORTG despite playing a lot of bad defensive teams, your adjusted for opponent strength ORTG is 26th in the league). It was never as bad when Roberson played, not even in 2016/17.


They had Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. That could've had something to do with it. Those teams never hit their potential offensively, in large part bc of Roberson playing 30mpg. I don't care what their ortg was. It was always a grind, they just happened to have 2 of the maybe top 20 offensive players in history on those teams. He should've been shelved, with NBA level replacements (always available) added years ago. It's really a shame they squandered it (I don't blame KD for leaving it). Hopefully they can still shock the world this year and/or next.

If you don’t care what the offensive rating was Roberson then why should anyone care what the defense looks like without Roberson. I could just argue that regardless of how good it looks, Paul George is just and Russ are having to work too hard without Andre out there.



What?
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1397 » by spearsy23 » Wed Dec 5, 2018 9:03 pm

hardenASG13 wrote:
spearsy23 wrote:
hardenASG13 wrote:This season, without Roberson and with the defense playing so well is making you and others look pretty bad. Just think if they'd done this when they had KD (grant is the man, but he's not young ibaka). All your years of stats on his impact didn't take into context that his impact was only due to how bad his on roster replacements were. It was a mirage as we are seeing this season. The D is really good, so is the offense and team.

Bring good on defense this season doesn't invalidate what Roberson has done for the past five years in any way.


Keep telling yourself that. You guys have argued for years he was irreplaceable and extremely valuable. You would've scoffed at the notion that a guy like shroeder and abrines taking his minutes would work, and would've cited their Drtg, net rating, etc., whatever stat you wanted to pull to make your argument look good. You know that is true, as the arguments have been had many times.

They haven't missed a beat without him this year, flat out. Don't even notice he's gone. Some went as far to say he was the 2nd or 3rd most valuable player on the team, which is just laughable. It's a shame because prior to last year, the top end talent was clearly enough to win a title on this team, yet they had to settle with roberson, a 1 way defensive specialist who can dribble in the half court, collapse a defense, shoot 3s, shoot off a dribble, a pull up, can't shoot midrange, and can't post up. He wasn't just limited, all he could do was shoot layups or dunks he didn't generate. There is a reason nobody else in the league uses guys like that, and hasn't for about 10 years, believe it or not.

It turns out playing 5 on 5 on both ends is a good thing, and like I always told it would be, the defense is fine without him. Not sure how you can argue otherwise?

You can't be this stupid, it's like arguing curry isn't that good because the raptors are winning without him.
“If you're getting stops and you're making threes and the other team's not scoring, that's when you're going to see a huge point difference there,” coach Billy Donovan said.
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1398 » by slick_watts » Wed Dec 5, 2018 9:14 pm

i want you to think on the following.

the thunder last year allowed 99.86pp100 with the starters in the game. that is, westbrook-roberson-george-anthony-adams.

all other lineups with westbrook-george-anthony-adams combined for 114.15pp100.

this includes the lineup with ferguson replacing roberson, which allowed 118.13pp100.

before we move on to anything else, lets all agree that this is strong evidence for andre roberson's effect on the defense. regardless of what happens this year or what is happening this year, the thunder saw a 15pp100 drop-off in non-roberson starting lineups last season. we'll get back to that.

the thunder this year are allowing 95.88pp100 with the starters in the game. that is, westbrook-ferguson-george-grant-adams.

all other lineups with westbrook-george-grant-adams combine for 109.42pp100.

taking this all in, do you know what i see? i see that the 2017-18 thunder starters posted an opponent pp100 nearly 20pp100 worse when replacing roberson with ferguson. and i see that (mostly) same lineup performing about as well as the roberson starters in 2018-19. now, i know this might be difficult, but can anyone think of a difference between the 2018 thunder and the 2019 thunder that might account for this discrepancy?

i think that the conclusion, at least insofar as roberson and the starters go, this season is that the starting unit last year with melo (and roberson) being #1 in the nba was an unbelievable achievement. because when fielding the same ferguson lineup sans melo this year we're achieving nearly the same results that was an abject failure last season. unless we're supposing that ferguson turned into a 1st team all defense player in the span of one season i don't see another possible conclusion. melo was a poison that only andre roberson's presence seemed to be able to cure.

the thunder's performance defensively this season isn't invalidating what roberson accomplished last season, it is strengthening it. especially in concert with what we've seen from melo this year in houston. if roberson was present with these starters this year, the question should be: how great would the defense have been?

and lets not move the goal posts on what your arguments were last year, which was that roberson could be replaced and the defense would be fine. and it wasn't. now that melo is gone (remember, you supported him too) and we replaced him with grant you want to turn this into an apples to apples comparison when it is not. do you think this defense would be performing like this if you replaced grant with melo? think about that, please.

i'll add that many of the posters here, myself included, theorized that the thunder could possibly reclaim the loss of roberson defensively by replacing melo and especially with the addition of noel. the thunder so far have hit the high end of that range. we'll see if it continues.

no one said roberson is irreplaceable. i know you're desperate for a win, but you're not going to fool anyone by making things up... bro, we were all here lol.

i'm not very interested in talking about your points on offense, since the offense hasn't been very good and terrance ferguson is unambiguously worse than roberson on that end.
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1399 » by Dn4sty » Wed Dec 5, 2018 10:03 pm

It’s not worth it guys
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Re: 2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope 

Post#1400 » by slick_watts » Wed Dec 5, 2018 11:07 pm

Dn4sty wrote:It’s not worth it guys


what would the world look like today if socrates decided it wasn't worth it? or gallileo? bertrand russell? karl marx? jaime escalante?

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