2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

[Dn4sty]

By the way, can I just say how much I appreciate George's effort on the defensive end. Like last night he took a shot that missed badly, but instead of get down on himself he turned around and harassed Ingles at the other end and get the ball back. Impressive stuff.

George isn’t really a tough guy or fighter but I think he really hates Jingles after the playoffs last year.

Jingles is really good, but as nice as George is, I don’t think he will be sending a Christmas card to Jingles.

By the way, Utah should trade for THJ

[getrichordie]

You really need someone to explain this to you?!

Please. I really do. I don’t know how a player who just suffered an avulsion fracture + an inconsistent bench shooter in Abrines + Steven Adams is more valuable than Bradley **** Beal.

Yeah, I need some kind of explanation.


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I think my biggest concern with Beal is if he can be ok not being the guy. I think he believes he can/should be the alpha of a team. GSW works so well because Klay and Draymond are completely fine just playing their roles.

I don’t know if he’d be ok playing the Klay Thompson role, which is what I think he would become on this team.

Plus the massive downgrade this team would then encounter with the lack of offensive rebounding and cleaning up all the bad that comes with a player like Russ (please don’t run with this and think that I’m anti Russ, Im ride or die with Russ for life) that Adams brings to this team. He covers over a multitude of Russ sins, and allows Russ to reach levels of play that I don’t think would be possible without him on the floor. I can’t think of a better center to pair with a player like Russ.

But in order to get the best version of the Thunder team without Adams and with Beal, Russ would likely need to morph into a 3pt shooter he will never be. That’s why this trade scares the crap out of me.

You should check into Mahinmi’s stats.


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[bondom34]

4/3/1 in 13 minutes per game with a replacement level BPM. Yikes

[bondom34]

Was curious, Adams off and Westbrook on has been a 112.8 ORtg in 141 possessions (small sample obviously), Westbrook + Adams a 114.0 in 806 possessions.

Updated a week later:

Westbrook and no Adams: 110.9 OR/105.8 DR, 5.1 net

Westbrook/Adams: 115.9/101.0, 14.9 net

[slick_watts]

trading adams for beal you're making a bet that beal can improve efg enough that it makes up for losing adams on the orb and the easy rw / sa pnr. it might make up for it, or more than make up for it.

but it makes things questionable on defense without an adequate replacement. noel is great as a bench big but he cannot be relied on in a starting role playing the way he is.

if that trade was on the table straight up i'd probably do it if only for the speculative value of replacing adams over the summer and really shooting for the moon in 2019-20. but i can't see how that trade would be on the table straight up, washington would get more-- and it'd be an odd mis-season move by presti who imo is waiting until the draft / summer for possible shake ups. trading adams for beal pretty much puts most of our defensive game plan and some of our offensive game plan in the trash. we'd be punting the season away. might not be up presti's alley.

[getrichordie]

trading adams for beal you're making a bet that beal can improve efg enough that it makes up for losing adams on the orb and the easy rw / sa pnr. it might make up for it, or more than make up for it.

but it makes things questionable on defense without an adequate replacement. noel is great as a bench big but he cannot be relied on in a starting role playing the way he is.

if that trade was on the table straight up i'd probably do it if only for the speculative value of replacing adams over the summer and really shooting for the moon in 2019-20. but i can't see how that trade would be on the table straight up, washington would get more-- and it'd be an odd mis-season move by presti who imo is waiting until the draft / summer for possible shake ups. trading adams for beal pretty much puts most of our defensive game plan and some of our offensive game plan in the trash. we'd be punting the season away. might not be up presti's alley.

I see what you are saying. I agree with the bet you have detailed and I am willing to bet (and I bet Presti is too) that defense takes a hit but our offensive output goes way up. I think our NetRtg is ultimately higher. We will have some bad games, but he will also have some historical nights in terms of offense.

If we think Mahinmi can replace 75% of Adams impact (offensively and defensively) and Beal can increase Ferguson/Abrines offensive output ceiling by 75%, I think it’s a pretty fair trade off and I think we match up better in the playoffs.

If we can keep Ferguson, we can stagger him with Beal so Beal can run with second unit next to Schroder. And George can stagger w/ Diallo to have some run in second unit as well.


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[Dn4sty]

Please. I really do. I don’t know how a player who just suffered an avulsion fracture + an inconsistent bench shooter in Abrines + Steven Adams is more valuable than Bradley **** Beal.

Yeah, I need some kind of explanation.


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I think my biggest concern with Beal is if he can be ok not being the guy. I think he believes he can/should be the alpha of a team. GSW works so well because Klay and Draymond are completely fine just playing their roles.

I don’t know if he’d be ok playing the Klay Thompson role, which is what I think he would become on this team.

Plus the massive downgrade this team would then encounter with the lack of offensive rebounding and cleaning up all the bad that comes with a player like Russ (please don’t run with this and think that I’m anti Russ, Im ride or die with Russ for life) that Adams brings to this team. He covers over a multitude of Russ sins, and allows Russ to reach levels of play that I don’t think would be possible without him on the floor. I can’t think of a better center to pair with a player like Russ.

But in order to get the best version of the Thunder team without Adams and with Beal, Russ would likely need to morph into a 3pt shooter he will never be. That’s why this trade scares the crap out of me.

You should check into Mahinmi’s stats.


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Sell me on Mahinmi, because I don’t see it. I see a backup Center who just happened to hit the FA lotto during the cap spike and drunken spending of incompetent GMs.

[RalphSampsonJr]

If we think Mahinmi can replace 75% of Adams impact (offensively and defensively)


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You either think Mahinmi is way better than he is or Adams is a whole lot worse..

[getrichordie]

If we think Mahinmi can replace 75% of Adams impact (offensively and defensively)


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You either think Mahinmi is way better than he is or Adams is a whole lot worse..

I just think he can be effective in a reduced role for center on our team. The 5 won’t be as important with another threat on the wing.


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[bondom34]

Yeah Mahinmi's currently backing up a 2nd year 2nd round player and is paid a ton of money. He's one of the worst deals in the NBA and can't play.

[RalphSampsonJr]

If we think Mahinmi can replace 75% of Adams impact (offensively and defensively)


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You either think Mahinmi is way better than he is or Adams is a whole lot worse..

I just think he can be effective in a reduced role for center on our team. The 5 won’t be as important with another threat on the wing.


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How does the 5 become less important?
Beal is shooting 33% from 3 this season its not like hes 40+% and he will just magically get the rest of the team shooting well.

A team with a lack of shooting like the thunder desperately depend upon rebounding. Whether it be 2nd chance points or defensively.
That need doesnt just go away because you added a 2 guard that can shoot and create hos own shot a bit.

Beal will not take, i repeat WILL NOT TAKE any shots away from Russ and PG if he came over. That, along with the rest of the teams terrible shooting neeeeeeds rebounding.

And i havent even started with the disruption it could cause on defense. You know the thing that actually makes this team elite

[getrichordie]

You either think Mahinmi is way better than he is or Adams is a whole lot worse..

I just think he can be effective in a reduced role for center on our team. The 5 won’t be as important with another threat on the wing.


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How does the 5 become less important?
Beal is shooting 33% from 3 this season its not like hes 40+% and he will just magically get the rest of the team shooting well.

A team with a lack of shooting like the thunder desperately depend upon rebounding. Whether it be 2nd chance points or defensively.
That need doesnt just go away because you added a 2 guard that can shoot and create hos own shot a bit.

Beal will not take, i repeat WILL NOT TAKE any shots away from Russ and PG if he came over. That, along with the rest of the teams terrible shooting neeeeeeds rebounding.

And i havent even started with the disruption it could cause on defense. You know the thing that actually makes this team elite

1. Bradley is a career 38% three point shooter. Just because he’s shooting 33% on a dysfunctional Wizards team isn’t cause for concern.

2. Russ has been feeding George. Russ can feed Beal too. His assists would definitely go up. Presti just needs to trust that he can make the adjustment. We’ve already seen that he’s beginning to change his game.

3. Mahinmi is a plus defender. His career DBPM is a 2.2. You could argue that this year’s DBPM #s are concerning but it’s a relatively small sample size (198 minutes) on a bad Wizards team. For comparison, Adams career DBPM is a 1.5.

4. As far as rebounding goes, Mahinmi is sitting at 13.3 rebounds per game and averaged 13.5 last year. Adams sits at 13.6 rebounds per 100 for his career and posted a 13.7 and is currently posting a 14.0 this year. Mahinmi can replace most of that.

This might help:

http://bkref.com/tiny/Li2QM

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[bondom34]

Mahinmi plays 13 minutes a game. He absolutely can't do that lol.

And Russ's DBPM is probably over 2.2. DBPM isn't a good defensive measure

[getrichordie]

Mahinmi plays 13 minutes a game. He absolutely can't do that lol.

And Russ's DBPM is probably over 2.2. DBPM isn't a good defensive measure

Russ’ career DBPM is 1.5 and gets better as he plays more minutes with Roberson and George and Adams who make up for his defensive ineptitude. We know this.

DBPM is solid for measuring big men.

Also, Mahinmi finished ahead of Adams in DRPM last year.

IM = 1.45
SA = 0.82

...quite the difference.

[bondom34]

Mahinmi plays 13 minutes a game. He absolutely can't do that lol.

And Russ's DBPM is probably over 2.2. DBPM isn't a good defensive measure

Russ’ career DBPM is 1.5 and gets better as he plays more minutes with Roberson and George and Adams who make up for his defensive ineptitude. We know this.

DBPM is solid for measuring big men.

Also, Mahinmi finished ahead of Adams in DRPM last year.

IM = 1.45
SA = 0.82

...quite the difference.

Because RPM uses BPM as a prior. And Mahinmi barely plays.

By BPM Noel and Russ are the 2 best defenders on OKC this year. Russ was best last year.

[getrichordie]

Mahinmi plays 13 minutes a game. He absolutely can't do that lol.

And Russ's DBPM is probably over 2.2. DBPM isn't a good defensive measure

Russ’ career DBPM is 1.5 and gets better as he plays more minutes with Roberson and George and Adams who make up for his defensive ineptitude. We know this.

DBPM is solid for measuring big men.

Also, Mahinmi finished ahead of Adams in DRPM last year.

IM = 1.45
SA = 0.82

...quite the difference.

Because RPM uses BPM as a prior. And Mahinmi barely plays.

By BPM Noel and Russ are the 2 best defenders on OKC this year

He averaged 15 minutes a game last year. How many minutes was McGee averaging when he got signed by the Warriors?


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[bondom34]

Because the Warriors have 4 top 25 players. OKC would have 2. And Mahinmi is worse and paid $15M a year. And Adams is close to Beal in impact relative to the rest. Nevermind, I shouldn't have said anything. Trade them away.

[getrichordie]

Lol @ how accustom OKC fans have become to being reliant on a 5. The league is going away from big money 5s who don’t have an elite offensive impact. It’s an inefficiency.

Also, it’s hilarious how glued you guys are to the current iteration of the Thunder. A lot of you take the “if I can’t see it and the stats don’t immediately back it up, then it doesn’t mean anything” view instead of actually considering others’ arguments for why something might work instead of why it won’t.

Always looking at the negatives and never the positives.

I honestly think I might write a piece on “negative analytics” vs “positive analytics” philosophy.


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[RalphSampsonJr]

I just think he can be effective in a reduced role for center on our team. The 5 won’t be as important with another threat on the wing.


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How does the 5 become less important?
Beal is shooting 33% from 3 this season its not like hes 40+% and he will just magically get the rest of the team shooting well.

A team with a lack of shooting like the thunder desperately depend upon rebounding. Whether it be 2nd chance points or defensively.
That need doesnt just go away because you added a 2 guard that can shoot and create hos own shot a bit.

Beal will not take, i repeat WILL NOT TAKE any shots away from Russ and PG if he came over. That, along with the rest of the teams terrible shooting neeeeeeds rebounding.

And i havent even started with the disruption it could cause on defense. You know the thing that actually makes this team elite

1. Bradley is a career 38% three point shooter. Just because he’s shooting 33% on a dysfunctional Wizards team isn’t cause for concern.

2. Russ has been feeding George. Russ can feed Beal too. His assists would definitely go up. Presti just needs to trust that he can make the adjustment. We’ve already seen that he’s beginning to change his game.

3. Mahinmi is a plus defender. His career DBPM is a 2.2. You could argue that this year’s DBPM #s are concerning but it’s a relatively small sample size (198 minutes) on a bad Wizards team. For comparison, Adams career DBPM is a 1.5.

4. As far as rebounding goes, Mahinmi is sitting at 13.3 rebounds per game and averaged 13.5 last year. Adams sits at 13.6 rebounds per 100 for his career and posted a 13.7 and is currently posting a 14.0 this year. Mahinmi can replace most of that.

This might help:

http://bkref.com/tiny/Li2QM

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Lol

[RalphSampsonJr]

Because the Warriors have 4 top 25 players. OKC would have 2. And Mahinmi is worse and paid $15M a year. And Adams is close to Beal in impact relative to the rest. Nevermind, I shouldn't have said anything. Trade them away.

Yea i feel the same way..