Post#192 » by slick_watts » Wed Jan 27, 2021 5:32 pm
sga has had an encouraging start to this season. if he keeps it up i'm comfortable with a max extension this summer. i'm not sure i'm convinced he'll become a top 10-15 player, but i think the potential is rapidly increasing.
sga is currently at >.400 FTr and >.300 3PAr (with 3PT% > league average) on > 25% usage. this tends to be the realm where the most consistent scorers operate. over the last five seasons, the only players who routinely do this are james harden and kevin durant. isiah thomas and lou williams have done it during their peak years. and elite stretch bigs have done it also, like kevin love or demarcus cousins. sga is one of four players meeting these criteria this season, along with aforementioned harden and durant, and damian lillard.
assuming this holds, it'll be a huge step in the right direction for shai, particularly the FTr. .400 FTr or higher would insulate his offensive impact from shooting variance. it's the thing that make 'star' players like jamal murray and donovan mitchell frustrating to watch. they have to rely so much on their mediocre jump shots. if shai draws fouls like this, he won't have to.
this is also evidenced by his improved shot distribution. so far this season only 28% of sga's FGA have been 2-point attempts outside the restricted area. a 10% reduction from last year. that he is shooting a better percentage at the rim and from three as well-- well, that's why he's at 62%+ TS at the moment.
so yeah if he maintains this, it would be super exciting for the team's future. at that point the only thing holding him back from super stardom would be his usage, which seems to be sticking in that 25-27% range. sga doesn't seem comfortable, yet, extending his usage into the 30%+ like the elite volume scorers do. but if he keeps up what he's doing now AND can do so while taking the workload of an elite scorer? he'd be a top 10 player or very, very close to it.
hoping sga continues his strong play because it'll be the most exciting thing to look forward to in terms of player development for the thunder since durant / harden / westbrook.
