2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

[Pillendreher]

https://sports.yahoo.com/paul-george-returned-thunder-authentic-now-make-genuine-contenders-025737377.html

An example: Play angry, often.

“Every time he is annoyed or upset, he shifts it to a different level,” Donovan said. “How do you create that mindset all the time?”

George agrees.

“Absolutely,” George said. “Sometimes it takes that for me to really get to that potential.”

[ThunderBolt]

https://sports.yahoo.com/paul-george-returned-thunder-authentic-now-make-genuine-contenders-025737377.html

An example: Play angry, often.

“Every time he is annoyed or upset, he shifts it to a different level,” Donovan said. “How do you create that mindset all the time?”

George agrees.

“Absolutely,” George said. “Sometimes it takes that for me to really get to that potential.”

This is one area I think this team will really feel the loss of Singler. He really helped take take guys like russ and George to a different level. It’s impossible to look at that haircut and not becsome instantly annoyed or upset.

[Old Man Game]

Looks like tonight's game is a pick 'em. -1.5 line. http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/las-vegas/

[Pillendreher]

For a team that has pushed the "We're going to place fast" talking point all offseason long, we haven't really played yet, have we? stats.nba.com says our pace throughout the first two games has been higher than our average pace last season, but to me it didn't look like we were playing with tempo all that often.

[Pillendreher]

A couple of very, very early tracking stats for us:

-34 catch and shoot attempts per game, 27 of them are 3s. Both of those numbers would have ranked 1st last season. Unfortunately, the team is just 3/14 on 2s (21.4 %) and 15/54 on 3s (27.8 %). Giving more of those shots to guys who can shoot and actual shooters should help with that.
-31 pull up attempts per game, 26 of them are 2s. Both of those numbers would have ranked 1st last season. And yet again, the team has not hit anything on those shots: 15/52 (28.8 %) on pull up 2s.
-In conclusion: 57% of their shots have been c&s 3s and pull up 2s and their eFG% on those shots has been 35.4 %.
-36 drives per game, which would have ranked 28th last season. 27.6 FG% on those drives and 33.3 PTS%. I know Russ has been out these first two games, but the team has to be way better than that. 32 drives by Schröder so far and just 6 points (2/13 shooting) with 4 assists on those drives. That's not going to cut it at all.
-241 passes per game, 19.5 adjusted assits per game. Not much has changed here. Puts a big dent into the "We're going to move the ball this season" talking point though.

[Pillendreher]

Credit where credit is due btw: Noel and Adams have played well so far. Over the first two games, this is what the Center spot has provided on average in 48 minutes:

23 ppg
20.5 rpg
2.5 apg
2.5 spg
0.5 bpg
1.0 tpg
63.6 TS%
141.5 ORtG

if they can keep this up throughout the season, I think we can be very happy with our Center rotation this season. And if Noel can keep performing, it offers up some interesting lineup possibilities with the bench once Russ comes back.

[wco81]

Didn’t see the Clippers game but it sounds like two really poor shooting games, 36/24/68 through 2 games.

What percentage of shots were uncontested? They have to be able to generate open looks while Westbrook is out.

[Pillendreher]

Didn’t see the Clippers game but it sounds like two really poor shooting games, 36/24/68 through 2 games.

What percentage of shots were uncontested? They have to be able to generate open looks while Westbrook is out.

I can give you the following numbers:

per stats.nba.com - closest defender shot data:

vs Warriors: 10.1 % very tight (44.4 eFG%) | 34.8 % tight (40.3 eFG%) | 29.2 % open (46.2 eFG%) | 25.8 % wide open (32.6 eFG%)
vs Clippers: 11.7 % very tight (36.4 eFG%) | 40.4 % tight (36.8 eFG%) | 27.7 % open (32.7 eFG%) | 20.2 % wide open (50.0 eFG%)

per stats.nba.com - boxscore player tracking (numbers don't quite add up with the total FGA):

vs Warriors: 44 uncontested FGA (34.1 FG%) | 40 contested FGA (35.0 FG%)
vs Clippers: 58 uncontested FGA (36.2 FG%) | 37 contested FGA (35.1 FG%)

I think they missed some open shots, but I also would say they're shots have been of poor quality so far. Second Spectrum tracking would be interesting on that one.

.

You have access, don't you?

[spearsy23]

It's such a weird dichotomy watching other teams shooting wide open shots and expecting them to go down vs watching us and just hoping maybe this one will.

[Andre Roberstan]

.

You have access, don't you?

I think I have Synergy through DT, but I haven't used it in a minute and it uses Silverlight so IDK if I can access it or not rn.

[Pillendreher]

.

You have access, don't you?

I think I have Synergy through DT, but I haven't used it in a minute and it uses Silverlight so IDK if I can access it or not rn.

Got ya. That's probably the same synergy stuff that's available through stats.nba.com, huh?

[Pillendreher]

https://newsok.com/article/5612404/thunder-buddies-podcast-talking-thunder-clippers-with-dan-woike-of-the-los-angeles-times

Erik Horne on Donovan (starts at 21:23):

Question: How does Donovan still have a job?

Horne: Good question. You know, I had a discussion with somebody last night about this. I think that it is getting - I'm not saying that Billy Donovan should be fired - but it is getting to the point to where you have to wonder how much the players are taking what Billy is telling them and converting it on the court. It doesn't seem like they're doing much of that at all. At least not in the moments where they really need to be doing it the most. I think last night was one of the few moments I can remember in 3 years I've been around Billy Donovan that he pretty much threw the players under the bus. The Orlando game last year when the Thunder started 8-12 and they got blown out by Orlando. That was a game where he pretty much put in on the players. And this game he put it on the players too I think. He said they didn't execute in any facet on offense or defense, they didn't execute well enough, they had to be better. They got stagnant and he usually doesnt't do that. And I think you have to wonder if there's a disconnect. I don't know if there is any coach out there that could get through to Russell Westbrook or Paul George and get them to play and take efficient shots, or get them to play better shots, because as good as Paul George is, he took some bad shots last night. As good as he was in the Warriors game where he got hot in the 3rd quarter and they came back, he was taking some ridiculously contested shots, like in Kevin Durant's face, and they were just going in. That's well and good, you can ride that to a certain extent, but I don't think you develop as a team when you're continually relying on superlative talents to just make crazy shots over guys night in, night out. That's the stuff you marvel at, and you marvel at what Russell Westbrook and Paul George can you, but it doesn't really get you anywhere. You're still going out in the first round against Utah because you're not seeking the most efficient shot possible. So I think that that's a problem. I think that it's a real problem with Billy Donovan. I don't think that these players - at times - consistently translate what he wants to do for 48 minutes. And I feel like we've been talking about that for four years now. And if you're talking about that for 3.5, 4 years, then you gotta wonder if a chance is necessary. I think I've discussed this - maybe not on the podcast, but somewhere - and again, two games, they need to give it some time. You're not gonna fire a game after two games. That's not what the Thunder does, even if you the listener or I, the writer, thinks that something should be changed, you gotta understand that's not how the Thunder operates. It's not a PJ Carlisimo situation. Billy Donovan's a guy they believe in. Now wether or not that believe is legitimate, I mean I guess that's up to us to decide, but, you know, if you've been sitting around for three years and seeing the same things happening, guys running their heads into the wall, not really getting the message of, you know, taking efficient shots, or, you know, seeking the best shot, or giving, you know, maximum thought and effort into each end of the floor, you gotta wonder if the message's getting through. I'm not sure if the message can get through to a Russell Westbrook or a Paul George, nine, ten years into their careers, but it might be time to find out for somebody else. That was not me calling for Billy Donovan to get fired, that was just me saying I do have serious doubt as to wether or not Billy Donovan can get this particular team over the hump, but frankly I have doubts that any coach can get a Russell Westbrook-Paul combination in this NBA [...]

Interesting that this gets brought up like this two games into the season. I fear Horne might be falling for Donovan's PR speak though. He's assuming that Donovan is coaching, but is not getting through to the players. I suspect that Donovan is indeed coaching, but not what he's saying to the media. When the whole offensive system is the equivalent of Germany's soccer legend, Franz Beckenbauer, telling the German national team as the HC back in 1990 to just "go out and play soccer", this is what you're getting. Paul George basically admitted that there's no real offensive gameplan in place (I'm talking about the choas quote from one or two weeks ago). You can't just rely on guys "freestyling" it out there. This is the NBA, not Rucker Park.
He may be talking about it, but I highly doubt he's actually coaching it. At least not the degree that it actually made a difference on the court. Think about where we have been as a franchise for the last four 3 years: It's a gif worthy moment for the Thunder to make two extra passes to find the open shot. That's how rudimentary this team's offense has been since Donovan replaced Brooks. They have gone through at least 30 to 40 different players in Donovan's three seasons and it's always been the same issues, year in, year out. Some of it is Westbrook's and his limitations, but at the end of the day, it's still part of the head coaches job description to actually coach and create some sort of plan for the team to follow. It is possible to be a "player's coach" without actually surrendering gameplanning to the players. Westbrook probably requires more "freedom" to create the kind of chaos he lives in, but that doesn't force the coaching staff to just sit back and be a bystander.
It is unfortunate though that we might be wasting yet another season with Donovan. Ideally, there should have been a cut at least after last season and the team's complete inability to generate offense without forcing steals and its inability to defend at a somewhat reasonable level with 25 minutes of Andre Roberson per game.

[ThunderBolt]

Interesting that he speaks of George as if he has a ten year career where he’s been out of control the whole time. My understanding was that George didn’t play this careless until he came to OKC and then developed started playing more of the my turn/your turn offense.

[Pillendreher]

Interesting that he speaks of George as if he has a ten year career where he’s been out of control the whole time. My understanding was that George didn’t play this careless until he came to OKC and then developed started playing more of the my turn/your turn offense.

Good catch. I think he's alluding to George's tendency of "trying to take over". I don't know if the played like that regularly in Indiana, but he has had some stretches here where he was forcing shots up, trying to dance opposing players out of their shoes, that kind of stuff. If Donovan's offensive gameplan is indeed "Just play, you got this", then I can see that that's feeding said desires by George.
The balance between individual talent, discipline and strategy is a delicate one, but you can't just roll over and hand over the reigns to the players almost completely. If that has been Donovan's approach over the last 3,4 seasons...

PS: I know this is a lot of talk after two games, but it's the same issues we've been talking about for three years. Almost no roster turnover besides the Melo trade and getting a couple of young wings. If the team had worked on becoming better offensively, we should have seen at least glimpes of it. But honestly, whatever I saw in preseason has become less and less visible. It's like you could see the smallest things here and there (Adams passing out of the high post, some guy actually cutting, not defaulting to isolation after you can't get through with the first attack, etc.), but as time went on, those small adjustments just vaporized. How is that possible? Is this team really that uncoached?

[ThunderBolt]

PS: I know this is a lot of talk after two games, but it's the same issues we've been talking about for three years.

Our team reminds me of a team like USC football right now. Not as talented as bama but still high end talent. Yet when you watch them, it’s clear there is no discipline and any moderate success is due to talent.

I rewatched the fourth quarter of the game to see why we were so horrible. Basic fundamentals on how the game is played are lacking. On offense Steven Adams was getting trapped with the ball at the top of the key and couldn’t get rid of it. Our guys kept getting bunched together.

Alex Abrines gets a rebound and he and Steven Adams are the only two players that aren’t already half way down court. Instead of Alex bringing the ball up the court he passes it to Adams and then runs away. Adams then awkwardly has to start to bring the ball up cour until gergemcomes back to him. Is that part of playing faster? Having your guards afraid to dribble?

Although Abrines was shooting coming off screens as the game went on he wasn’t getting set. He was often fading and falling away like russ does. How about that inbounds pass he threw the grants ankles?

I don’t like the way Felton plays but he was better than schroder. We will likely beat the kings tonight based on talent and that we are playing at home. After the clipper game I have the same feeling about the team that I had most of last year and in the Utah series. Losing doesn’t bother me as much as not having confidence that this team will ever play the right away. It’s hard to watch.

[slick_watts]

horne saying what i've been saying all along. westbrook is not a coachable player. he wants to be like lebron coaching himself. and george is similar, as was reinforced by his comments during camp. sam knows all this and this is why we have a coach like billy donovan and not one like mike d'antoni.

when billy came in he had a pretty good idea of how he wanted to defend pnr and had to abandon it because kanter and westbrook could not do it consistently. or would not. the idea that a coach with billy's experience can't design an effective offense with nba talent is ludicrous. so much blame is put on him when there's so much evidence that westbrook is not the kind of leader who is going to signal boost the coach's gameplan. i mean, lets be serious for a minute-- do we honestly think it's billy donovan's desire that westbrook launch a three pointer off the dribble against san antonio for the final shot?

horne knows what the issues are, katz knew, darnell knew, etc. there's a reason why the there's an inverse relationship in okc between opportunity and bbiq.

[ThunderBolt]

Billy knows what he wants done on offense but russ kept sending out those George-led bench units last year.

[bondom34]

I haven't seen anything from him saying that, but feels like this is the weirdest time to blame him for losses. Like literally he can't escape it.

[Pillendreher]

Billy knows what he wants done on offense but russ kept sending out those George-led bench units last year.

I'm perfectly willing to concede that Russ is most likely not the easiest player to coach. Extremely confident (to a fault even), at the same time he appears to be quite stubborn and has a big chip on his shoulder. So I am too assuming that coaching the team on offense must take a certain kind of approach and effort. But that doesn't excuse that the team looks almost completely uncoached offensively and that Donovan has been horrible in so many other aspects of coaching in today's NBA.

Westbrook being a tough player to deal with does not force Donovan to give Raymond Felton the green light even though he's the point guard and not some elite wing (278 players have played for at least 1000 minutes over the last two seasons; out of those 278, Felton is 112th in USG% despite being 256th in TS% and 196th in ORtG). It does not force Donovan to make Jerami Grant a 30 minutes a night player even though he's clearly not good enough for that. It does not force Donovan to play Semaj Christon next to Russell Westbrook. It does not force Donovan to bury Anthony Morrow on the bench. It does not force Donovan to lull his team to sleep during halftime so they come out flat as hell in the 3rd quarter. It does not force Donovan to say things like "It doesn't matter wether Ferguson starts". It does not force Donovan to waste George on those bench lineups even though they never worked. It does not force Donovan to prioritize athletes that look like they could be good defenders over better players. It does not force Donovan to praise Carmelo Anthony for this team's defense last season. It does not force Donovan to not instill some sense of urgency within his team which prevents them to lose to horrible squads and show no sense of discipline and self-awareness. It does not force Donovan to randomly change rotations. It does not force Donovan to stick with things that have never worked while ignoring things that have worked and will most likely work in the future as well.

And so on and so on. Westbrook being less coachable than other players does not equal Donovan not being at fault here. The only way that works is if he is indeed coaching his butt of every single day and 30 to 40 different people have ignored it completely for three straight years just because Russell Westbrook says so. I don't find that scenario very believable.
Unless Westbrook is able to control other people's minds and has been getting away with it since forever, there is very clear pattern to see here. Unless they're willing to concede to never getting better and wasting top tier talent like this, that pattern will still be there and we will still see the very same problems we have seen ever since Presti handed his buddy this job.

[Kizz Fastfists]

I haven't seen anything from him saying that, but feels like this is the weirdest time to blame him for losses. Like literally he can't escape it.

Weird time to blame Russ or Billy? It is a great time to blame Billy because Russ isn't there to stop the ball movement. If Billy had put an offensive system into place now would be when you would expect to see it. Instead we are getting the expected Schroder and PG iso show with the surprise addition of Jerami Grant. This just shows that while Billy says nice catch phrases like "ball movement" and "moving without the ball" he isn't teaching it or enforcing it.