20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News

Post #221 » by **ThunderBolt** » Thu Feb 4, 2021 11:10 am

Seems fair to say that Lu Dort has come back down to earth. Shooting is probably improved but he still is very inconsistent.

jake_swivel · Post #222 » by **jake_swivel** » Thu Feb 4, 2021 2:46 pm

I’m not gonna lie, this non-tank tank year is a bummer. We are gonna turn into the jazz unless Presti gets crazy lucky and pulls a Giannis out of his draft hat.

Post #223 » by **ThunderBolt** » Thu Feb 4, 2021 3:24 pm

jake_swivel wrote:I’m not gonna lie, this non-tank tank year is a bummer. We are gonna turn into the jazz unless Presti gets crazy lucky and pulls a Giannis out of his draft hat.

Agreed. Maybe we trade for a young guy that’s kind of good and he makes a leap. I wouldn’t be as upset if someone besides shai looked like they could be an all star level player.

Post #224 » by **ThunderBolt** » Thu Feb 4, 2021 5:36 pm

Nice video on Dort by KOC.

Watch on YouTube

Read on Twitter

thedoppelganger · Post #225 » by **thedoppelganger** » Fri Feb 5, 2021 2:38 am

Read on Twitter

thedoppelganger · Post #226 » by **thedoppelganger** » Fri Feb 5, 2021 3:01 pm

Was bored and curious how past teams that ended with the worst records started off their seasons. Looked at final records and where they were at a similar point in the season (we're at game 21 in 72 game season, so through 24 games in regular 82 game season).

2020 Golden State - started 4-15, finished 15-50.

2019 Knicks - started 8-16, finished 17-65.

2018 Suns - started 8-16, finished 21-61.

2017 Nets - started 7-17, finished 20-62.

2016 76ers - started 1-23, finished 10-72. Somehow the only season the Process 76ers ended with worst record.

2015 - Wolves - started 5-19, finished 16-66.

2014 - Bucks - started 5-19, finished 15-67.

2013 - Magic - started 11-13, finished 20-62.

2012 - Wizards - started 3-16, finished 20-46. Didn't include the 7-59 Bobcats who were arguably the worst team of all time during the lockout season.

So while there isn't much precedent for a team starting as well as we have to finish with the worst record, the team listed here that we most mirror is the 2013 Magic. They had traded Dwight in the summer, leaving a few veterans and a number of young prospects. Started the season about on par with how we have, then traded guys like JJ Redick at the deadline.

cjmcallist · Post #227 » by **cjmcallist** » Fri Feb 5, 2021 4:13 pm

ThunderBolt wrote:
jake_swivel wrote:I’m not gonna lie, this non-tank tank year is a bummer. We are gonna turn into the jazz unless Presti gets crazy lucky and pulls a Giannis out of his draft hat.

Agreed. Maybe we trade for a young guy that’s kind of good and he makes a leap. I wouldn’t be as upset if someone besides shai looked like they could be an all star level player.

I've been thinking along these lines. But, with Hill's surgery, I'm more inclined to wait a couple of weeks. It's early enough that a 4 game losing streak would put us back at the top (bottom) 5 with a win pctg. of .375. So, if we lose games with Hill out, I'd say trade him ASAP and then roll from there.

But, if we continue to win without him for the next 2 weeks, then we might need to start thinking about cashing in some of those draft picks.

Been trying to figure out how to get Ben Simmons or Porzingis. :lol:

Pipe dreamin'

cjmcallist · Post #228 » by **cjmcallist** » Fri Feb 5, 2021 4:15 pm

Also, need to show Mark D. some love. He's killing it this season.

Woerzboerg · Post #229 » by **Woerzboerg** » Fri Feb 5, 2021 4:21 pm

Maybe, if we are lucky, the heat will #fadeforcade for us

Post #230 » by **ThunderBolt** » Fri Feb 5, 2021 4:24 pm

Woerzboerg wrote:Maybe, if we are lucky, the heat will #fadeforcade for us

How wild would it be if we made the play in game and miami was top 5 and houston 5th?

Post #231 » by **ThunderBolt** » Fri Feb 5, 2021 4:27 pm

cjmcallist wrote:
ThunderBolt wrote:
jake_swivel wrote:I’m not gonna lie, this non-tank tank year is a bummer. We are gonna turn into the jazz unless Presti gets crazy lucky and pulls a Giannis out of his draft hat.

Agreed. Maybe we trade for a young guy that’s kind of good and he makes a leap. I wouldn’t be as upset if someone besides shai looked like they could be an all star level player.

I've been thinking along these lines. But, with Hill's surgery, I'm more inclined to wait a couple of weeks. It's early enough that a 4 game losing streak would put us back at the top (bottom) 5 with a win pctg. of .375. So, if we lose games with Hill out, I'd say trade him ASAP and then roll from there.

But, if we continue to win without him for the next 2 weeks, then we might need to start thinking about cashing in some of those draft picks.

Been trying to figure out how to get Ben Simmons or Porzingis. Pipe dreamin'

Until Beal becomes available, I don't see any possible way the 76ers move him. I've been hoping Fox gets discontent soon.

thedoppelganger · Post #232 » by **thedoppelganger** » Sun Feb 7, 2021 3:04 pm

http://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength
Some good news from here - we’ve got the hardest remaining schedule til the all star break, and the heat have the second hardest schedule

Post #233 » by **ThunderBolt** » Sun Feb 7, 2021 4:54 pm

thedoppelganger wrote:http://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength
Some good news from here - we’ve got the hardest remaining schedule til the all star break, and the heat have the second hardest schedule

I would feel much better if the Heat played in the West. It's going to be really hard for them to not be in the top eight. They are only 1.5 games out of eighth despite their horrible start.

thedoppelganger · Post #234 » by **thedoppelganger** » Sun Feb 7, 2021 6:12 pm

Read on Twitter

Concussion for Moose - wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t travel for the road trip this week

Post #235 » by **Dadouv47** » Mon Feb 8, 2021 3:06 am

ThunderBolt wrote:
thedoppelganger wrote:http://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength
Some good news from here - we’ve got the hardest remaining schedule til the all star break, and the heat have the second hardest schedule

I would feel much better if the Heat played in the West. It's going to be really hard for them to not be in the top eight. They are only 1.5 games out of eighth despite their horrible start.

Exactly. Kind of jealous of the Knicks situation with the Mavs struggling :lol:

Mavs will have to win a lot of games against teams like Portland, Spurs, Gs, Rockets etc. to go to the playoffs while Miami just need to beat some mediocre teams (Hornets, Cavs, Knicks, Bulls etc.) Such a big difference...

Miami is still struggling and Butler isn't 100% yet but if no major injury from Butler or Bam, they will be fine. Think they still are a playoff team in the East even if they lose a player like Dragic.

jambalaya · Post #236 » by **jambalaya** » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:02 am

Thunder with 4th worst SRS in league and a good chance they'd be worst without Hill and Horford.

I am not going to totally slam the Coach but I am not going to do a lot of praising either, yet.

Woerzboerg · Post #237 » by **Woerzboerg** » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:10 pm

jambalaya wrote:Thunder with 4th worst SRS in league and a good chance they'd be worst without Hill and Horford.

I am not going to totally slam the Coach but I am not going to do a lot of praising either, yet.

Without Horford and Hill this is team of rookies/sophomores, journeymen and SGA. It's totally fine that they are bad.

Post #238 » by **ThunderBolt** » Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:36 pm

jambalaya wrote:Thunder with 4th worst SRS in league and a good chance they'd be worst without Hill and Horford.

I am not going to totally slam the Coach but I am not going to do a lot of praising either, yet.

I don’t think you are looking at the big picture.

thedoppelganger · Post #239 » by **thedoppelganger** » Thu Feb 11, 2021 3:40 pm

If we're unable to trade Horford by the deadline, I hope the plan is to shut him down at some point before the end of the season. He's been killing it since he came back from his absence, going to cost us some L's before too long.

The bottom of the East is so, so bad, and it hadn't really hit me before now that the shortened season means that they all have 10 fewer games against each other and the same amount against the West as usual. And with how bad the East has been against the West this year, it might be a scenario where only 2 of the bottom 8 are from the West. Saving grace is that they'll all be in the hunt for the play-in until late in the season.

jambalaya · Post #240 » by **jambalaya** » Thu Feb 11, 2021 3:57 pm

To me, "the big picture" is about what has actually happened and to some extent actual trendlines and not a lot about imagined / potential changes.

SGA improved but is not yet at All-Star level.

Dort improved modestly but is still way below average on most metrics. Modestly above average on one.

Bazley slipped some and is way way way below average.

Diallo is average on some metrics.

Roby rates below average and hard to say how much he'll improve.

Maledon has had a few good games but overall performance rates as among worst for any 2020 draftees.

Pokusevski rated as worst player in league on 1 metric recently.

Kendrich Williams rates slightly above average on a few metrics.

Is this enough to get a playoff seed without Hill? Probably not. Without Horford eventually? Probably not.

Are they going to get a top 3 draft pick this summer? Probably not.

LA-RAPM actually has SGA, Diallo, Bazley, Maledon and Roby ranked in the 400s. I won't judge a player completely by one metric but I won't totally throw it out either. SGA does in fact lose by an average of 7 pts / 100p when on court with help from Hill and Horford and much worse without them. His D-RAPM estimate is really bad. The other guys named in this paragraph range from same level of negative to twice as bad.

The offensive efficiency is 2nd worst in league and bottom 10 on all 4 factors of it. The defense is slightly above average, helped by not fouling. Without Hill and Horford they are probably worst offense by a significant margin and probably below average on D and maybe worst rated team in league or much closer. Which part of offense gets to average and when? When does offense as a whole get to average or the needed better?

Things may get better after they get worse; but rather than judging on own, the measure will be against other teams hoping / expecting to get better and competing for 10th seed, 8th seed, 4th seed and higher.