2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

[Osirus89]

I've been racking my brain so hard to think of any possible avenues for this team to get out of this tailspin and I just can't see any daylight.

Donovan is still a clueless coach.
Russ is playing like trash
PG has cooled off
Schroder has become unplayable
Abrines is dead for all intensive purposes

The defense has gotten fallen off and that basically destroys the entire fabric of the team. You can't play Schroder because his defense is unfathomably bad, but the bench can't score worth a damn if he's not on the floor because there are literally two offensive creators on this team and one is in a horrible rut that almost cancels him out.

Donovan doesn't know how to adjust during games so teams just run roughshod over the defense once they start to exploit how mindlessly aggressive it is. Presti hasn't done a damn thing to fix this roster, but its really hard to fix it at this point when it was originally contructed out of play-doh, dog****, and vomit. The guys any sensible person would want to trade have zero or negative value which leaves the option of trading Steven Adams or Jerami Grant as the only avenues to doing anything on the trade front. Does that make the team better? No feasible first to trade (thanks again for that)

How the hell do you improve this team to just being on the level of the Raptors, Bucks, Nuggets of the world? Forget the Warriors. This roster was contructed completely wrong and its has blown up in his face. The only way for it to subsist is two superstars carrying it like back in the day, but now with Russell playing like a marginal player, that avenue doesn't work. He's stuck with a roster that was created on a flawed premise and now that premise has been exposed. But at least he traded up in the draft to get Hamidou Diallo. He satisfies the requisite skills of jumping and dunking that every NBA contending team is built around. I actually liked the move at the time, but I expected there would be subsequent things done on the shooting front. NOPE

I've wanted to go off on Presti and the FO for a while and this game gave me the motivation to type it out. I apologize, but this was very cathartic.

[RalphSampsonJr]

I just cant figure it out.. has Adams just completely forgotten how to play pnr defense or is Billy just wanting the thunder to give up high percentage buckets?
Len, collins and now ZU **** BAC?! Have all just scored 24+ on 65+% shooting.. thunder have been getting outrebounded alot lately too.

Yea the bench sucks but the thunder are actually playing much improved offense it just seems to have come with the cost of rebounding and defense

[Dn4sty]

Been away for a while. Just wow.

7 for 30.

I stand by my belief that a Russ-centric team cannot be considered a true contender. Russ’ only real skill is his athleticism and passing and he’s picked it up on defense this year. He sucks at almost everything else.

Just tired of watching Russ make mistake after mistake and bad decision after bad decision. He’s not Kobe. He doesn’t deserve the “leeway” that he’s been getting within our offense. Not anymore, anyway.

Out with old and in with the new. Trade Russ if you can. I’ll take Schroder as my starter for the future over Russ.

Let’s just pray that Presti isn’t married to Russ.


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No

[getrichordie]

Been away for a while. Just wow.

7 for 30.

I stand by my belief that a Russ-centric team cannot be considered a true contender. Russ’ only real skill is his athleticism and passing and he’s picked it up on defense this year. He sucks at almost everything else.

Just tired of watching Russ make mistake after mistake and bad decision after bad decision. He’s not Kobe. He doesn’t deserve the “leeway” that he’s been getting within our offense. Not anymore, anyway.

Out with old and in with the new. Trade Russ if you can. I’ll take Schroder as my starter for the future over Russ.

Let’s just pray that Presti isn’t married to Russ.


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No

Yes


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[retrobro90]

I just don't think we're that dynamic defensively or at least as flexible as we need to be. It's a similar phenomenon to what Milwaukee experienced between their first and second years under Kidd and how their defense plummeted once teams caught on to the gameplan. Kidd's scheme was all about aggressive doubles either on ball screens or on post ups. Billy's defense is all about aggressive high roll coverage and switchability amongst his big men. Everyone on the squad gambles in the passing lanes or on poke aways. I think opponents just know it's coming now and anticipate high coverage on every possession and they prioritize ball security. Westbrook has also been awful again on the defensive end. It seemed like he'd turned a new leaf in regard to his effort getting over screens and closing out on shooters but he's been brutal in this stretch against lottery squads. Obviously every team has lulls in their season but when the trade deadline is so close and you suck on both sides of the ball it's hard to parse what exactly we're missing and if it's even worth pursuing.

Ferguson rules. A petty part of me liked that went ahead and shoved KCP after two garbage whistles.

[Pillendreher]

I just don't think we're that dynamic defensively or at least as flexible as we need to be. It's a similar phenomenon to what Milwaukee experienced between their first and second years under Kidd and how their defense plummeted once teams caught on to the gameplan. Kidd's scheme was all about aggressive doubles either on ball screens or on post ups. Billy's defense is all about aggressive high roll coverage and switchability amongst his big men. Everyone on the squad gambles in the passing lanes or on poke aways. I think opponents just know it's coming now and anticipate high coverage on every possession and they prioritize ball security. Westbrook has also been awful again on the defensive end. It seemed like he'd turned a new leaf in regard to his effort getting over screens and closing out on shooters but he's been brutal in this stretch against lottery squads. Obviously every team has lulls in their season but when the trade deadline is so close and you suck on both sides of the ball it's hard to parse what exactly we're missing and if it's even worth pursuing.

Ferguson rules. A petty part of me liked that went ahead and shoved KCP after two garbage whistles.

While some of this is true, I don't think that you can be that good defensively for multiple months just on a "gimmick". To me it looks like

a) some rotations are just off

b) we forever reason prioritize swarming guys over guarding players

c) we are playing way too many horrible players with the bench

Regarding c):

Schröder+Patterson with no Adams and George and no Diallo or Nader: 103.1 DRtG (63 minutes)
Schröder+Patterson+Diallo with no Adams, George and Nader: 116.5 DRtG (125 minutes)
Schröder+Patterson+Diallo+Nader with no Adams and George: 145.3 DRtG (44 minutes)

We can't go on like this. Whatever lead we build with the starters, the bench erases it in a matter of minutes. Adams was gone four minutes from the 1st to the 2nd quarter and the Lakers had scored 24 points on 13 possessions. This is like the Rockets series 2017 in the Playoffs, but now we're doing it against horrible squads as well. That bench at least was good. Now we're getting lit up by guys that are barely NBA players in some cases.

[Pillendreher]

4-Man-Lineups, last 7 games, no minutes restrictions. I did not apply any other filters to make us look this bad. This is reality:



Common theme: Schröder+starters and bench players.

Since the Portland game:

Westbrook-George-Adams with no Schröder, Diallo and Nader: 99.6 DRtG in 274 possessions
Rest of the possessions played: 137.3 DRtG in 370 possessions

To just stay at league average, which is at 110.2 currently, we'd have to completely reverse that minute distribution and give those starters without the defensive scrubs more than 70 % of the minutes. After the Portland game btw, we were almost 8 points better than the league average defense. To achieve that with this kind of defensive performance by the rest of the team would be impossible.

[1bigfan13]

I've been racking my brain so hard to think of any possible avenues for this team to get out of this tailspin and I just can't see any daylight.

Donovan is still a clueless coach.
Russ is playing like trash
PG has cooled off
Schroder has become unplayable
Abrines is dead for all intensive purposes

The defense has gotten fallen off and that basically destroys the entire fabric of the team. You can't play Schroder because his defense is unfathomably bad, but the bench can't score worth a damn if he's not on the floor because there are literally two offensive creators on this team and one is in a horrible rut that almost cancels him out.

Donovan doesn't know how to adjust during games so teams just run roughshod over the defense once they start to exploit how mindlessly aggressive it is. Presti hasn't done a damn thing to fix this roster, but its really hard to fix it at this point when it was originally contructed out of play-doh, dog****, and vomit. The guys any sensible person would want to trade have zero or negative value which leaves the option of trading Steven Adams or Jerami Grant as the only avenues to doing anything on the trade front. Does that make the team better? No feasible first to trade (thanks again for that)

How the hell do you improve this team to just being on the level of the Raptors, Bucks, Nuggets of the world? Forget the Warriors. This roster was contructed completely wrong and its has blown up in his face. The only way for it to subsist is two superstars carrying it like back in the day, but now with Russell playing like a marginal player, that avenue doesn't work. He's stuck with a roster that was created on a flawed premise and now that premise has been exposed. But at least he traded up in the draft to get Hamidou Diallo. He satisfies the requisite skills of jumping and dunking that every NBA contending team is built around. I actually liked the move at the time, but I expected there would be subsequent things done on the shooting front. NOPE

I've wanted to go off on Presti and the FO for a while and this game gave me the motivation to type it out. I apologize, but this was very cathartic.

Presti's feet need to be held to the fire. A lack of shooting has been a problem for far too long. Damn near every team in the league can find at least one or two guys who are depenable long range shooters. But here we are 6 years after the Harden trade still struggling to find SGs who are consistent shooters.

If I'm Clay Bennett I'm not authorizing another high dollar trade. We're already neck deep into the luxury tax and Presti still hasn't shown the ability to shore up this team's weak spots. Therefore, its up to Billy Donovan to figure things out. If he can't do it Presti needs to find someone who can. Someone who can put schemes in place that can actually defend modern day NBA offenses.

If we can't slow down the offenses of a Lebron-less Lakers, a bad Hawks team, and a dysfunctional Wizards team....I shudder to think what the Nuggets and Warriors will do to the Thunder's defense. They'd probably flirt with putting up 160 points in regulation against OKC.

[spearsy23]

Been away for a while. Just wow.

7 for 30.

I stand by my belief that a Russ-centric team cannot be considered a true contender. Russ’ only real skill is his athleticism and passing and he’s picked it up on defense this year. He sucks at almost everything else.

Just tired of watching Russ make mistake after mistake and bad decision after bad decision. He’s not Kobe. He doesn’t deserve the “leeway” that he’s been getting within our offense. Not anymore, anyway.

Out with old and in with the new. Trade Russ if you can. I’ll take Schroder as my starter for the future over Russ.

Let’s just pray that Presti isn’t married to Russ.


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Strange you've been quiet for a while.

[ThunderBolt]

I don’t think this is fixable.

[Pillendreher]

I don’t think this is fixable.

Oh give me a break already. Yes, I'm sure we'll have a 120 or so DRtG for the rest of the season. Just like that we get worse by almost 20 pp100p.

Jesus.

[ThunderBolt]

I don’t think this is fixable.

Oh give me a break already. Yes, I'm sure we'll have a 120 or so DRtG for the rest of the season. Just like that we get worse by almost 20 pp100p.

Jesus.

If we are going to say what we’ve seen the majority of the season is who we are are you ready to admit that russ is cooked?

[Pillendreher]

Patterson over his last 13 games aka since Christmas: 15/30 from 3, 64.6 TS%, 121 ORtG


Since Christmas, Patterson has played 18 minutes next to Westbrook, George and Adams. Maybe give the guy some minutes for a change.

[Pillendreher]

I don’t think this is fixable.

Oh give me a break already. Yes, I'm sure we'll have a 120 or so DRtG for the rest of the season. Just like that we get worse by almost 20 pp100p.

Jesus.

If we are going to say what we’ve seen the majority of the season is who we are are you ready to admit that russ is cooked?

No because I don't think that he is His struggles are way too volatile for him to "cooked" in the physical sense of the word. A lot of his struggles have been mental imo. Being afraid of contact because he struggles at the line. Not finding the balance between shooting and playmaking which is throwing off his offensive rhythm. His lack of flow offensively has been very obvious in certain games. You can almost tell when he attempts a shot wether it's going or not simply based on how he looks when he takes it.

[Pillendreher]

Donovan doesn't know how to adjust during games so teams just run roughshod over the defense once they start to exploit how mindlessly aggressive it is.

That's not true btw. They have adjusted with regularity. That's one of the things that has made them excellent defensively this season.

[ThunderBolt]

Oh give me a break already. Yes, I'm sure we'll have a 120 or so DRtG for the rest of the season. Just like that we get worse by almost 20 pp100p.

Jesus.

If we are going to say what we’ve seen the majority of the season is who we are are you ready to admit that russ is cooked?

No because he's not. His struggles are way too volatile for him to "cooked" in the physical sense of the world. A lot of his struggles have been mental imo. Being afraid of contact because he struggles at the line. Not finding the balance between shooting and playmaking which is throwing off his offensive rhythm. His lack of flow offensively has been very obvious in certain games.

If Russ struggles are mental this is really embarrassing for russ. We aren’t asking him to play power forward. In essence all Russ really needs to do is lower his usage and play a little defense. It’s after the first of the year and this is a former mvp that has Paul George playing well alongside him. It’s time to figure it out.

Regardless of russ struggles, it’s inconsistent to only think that if certain players like Russ, PP and Alex can do x and y then we will be fine or go to the next level. Why can’t we say, if we don’t continue us playing great defense then we could go in to a tailspin? One opinion isn’t more negative than the other is positive and vice versa.

I guess it depends on what you think this team is chasing and capable of doing whether or not this is fixable.

[Pillendreher]

Regardless of russ struggles, it’s inconsistent to only think that if certain players like Russ, PP and Alex can do x and y then we will be fine or go to the next level. Why can’t we say, if we don’t continue us playing great defense then we could go in to a tailspin? One opinion isn’t more negative than the other is positive and vice versa.

Neither am I say nor am I thinking that. You can't get better if you don't perform at the level you have been performing so far defensively. That's a given. Who is saying otherwise?!

[ThunderBolt]

Regardless of russ struggles, it’s inconsistent to only think that if certain players like Russ, PP and Alex can do x and y then we will be fine or go to the next level. Why can’t we say, if we don’t continue us playing great defense then we could go in to a tailspin? One opinion isn’t more negative than the other is positive and vice versa.

Neither am I say nor am I thinking that. You can't get better if you don't perform at the level you have been performing so far defensively. That's a given. Who is saying otherwise?!

When I say its not fixable, I'm not referring to the current defensive decline. I'm looking at the bigger picture. Losses like this piss me off at how this roster was built and the price to do so. Jerami Grant is fine as a player. Regardless of what he is now, he was never worth a freaking first round pick. I'm glad Melo is gone. Getting DS for another FRP is another huge issue. Most people think that the thunder are doing their best to go for it all this year yet we continue to flirt with missing the playoffs.

[Pillendreher]

Regardless of russ struggles, it’s inconsistent to only think that if certain players like Russ, PP and Alex can do x and y then we will be fine or go to the next level. Why can’t we say, if we don’t continue us playing great defense then we could go in to a tailspin? One opinion isn’t more negative than the other is positive and vice versa.

Neither am I say nor am I thinking that. You can't get better if you don't perform at the level you have been performing so far defensively. That's a given. Who is saying otherwise?!

When I say its not fixable, I'm not referring to the current defensive decline. I'm looking at the bigger picture. Losses like this piss me off at how this roster was built and the price to do so. Jerami Grant is fine as a player. Regardless of what he is now, he was never worth a freaking first round pick. I'm glad Melo is gone. Getting DS for another FRP is another huge issue. Most people think that the thunder are doing their best to go for it all this year yet we continue to flirt with missing the playoffs.

Oh, I agree with all of this. We're still paying for the Kanter trade.

Utah wants to dump Kanter
We gave up a 1st for the kind of player we don't need
We don't let Portland hang itself, but sintead match an insane contract for the defensive sieve that he is
We trade him for Melo
We give up another 1st for a player Atlanta simply wants to have off its books

In four years we've spent two FRP and one very good SRP and millions upon millions because Presti is the poster boy for the sunk cost fallacy. And yet here we are, in season 6 post Harden, still looking for wings that are able to play.

[slick_watts]

so it's january 18th 2019 and westbrook is still under 48% ts. is anyone still convinced he's "seriously improved" on defense? is he making up for it in other ways? like trash talking opponents in losses?