2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

[Old Man Game]

Can we take a moment to appreciate Ferguson "blocking" for Paul George last night?



They just grow up so fast

From looking like a guy who couldn’t play basketball in summer league to this is nothing short of amazing

I think it turns out that Summer league is just a really bad environment for a guy like Ferg to shine. He's not the sort of dude who is going to handle the ball a bunch and put up numbers in that sort of helter skelter game. He needs to be set up by other primary ball handlers and god knows there's not exactly an abundance of them on our Summer league rosters.

[spearsy23]

Can we take a moment to appreciate Ferguson "blocking" for Paul George last night?



They just grow up so fast

From looking like a guy who couldn’t play basketball in summer league to this is nothing short of amazing

I think it turns out that Summer league is just a really bad environment for a guy like Ferg to shine. He's not the sort of dude who is going to handle the ball a bunch and put up numbers in that sort of helter skelter game. He needs to be set up by other primary ball handlers and god knows there's not exactly an abundance of them on our Summer league rosters.

I've been saying this for the last few years about summer league and especially the d-league. It's really tough to put any stock at all in what happens there because guys aren't playing the roles that will be available to them in real NBA action. I think the d-league has its uses, but you should be looking at guys who excel at certain things within that environment and not their overall stats.

[Pillendreher]

From looking like a guy who couldn’t play basketball in summer league to this is nothing short of amazing

I think it turns out that Summer league is just a really bad environment for a guy like Ferg to shine. He's not the sort of dude who is going to handle the ball a bunch and put up numbers in that sort of helter skelter game. He needs to be set up by other primary ball handlers and god knows there's not exactly an abundance of them on our Summer league rosters.

I've been saying this for the last few years about summer league and especially the d-league. It's really tough to put any stock at all in what happens there because guys aren't playing the roles that will be available to them in real NBA action. I think the d-league has its uses, but you should be looking at guys who excel at certain things within that environment and not their overall stats.

To be fair he even looks better at doing things that he failed miserably at during SL. Remember how they wanted him to run PnR and he looked like a dumpster fire? He's even doing that from time to time now when the possessions asks for it. Nothing fancy, but he's done it a couple of times.

[slick_watts]

summer league is meaningless for fans and onlookers. it's a step lower than intrasquad scrimmaging.

[wco81]

Does Donovan get credit for development of Ferguson?

And Grant last year?

[Pillendreher]

So after the Wizards game I posted some passing numbers. I thought I'd look them up again for this recent stretch and add some shooting data:







The passing numbers are really surprising to me. I could have sworn that we were back to passing a little bit more, but it seems like we're passing less. I think a big difference is taking better shots and actually making them. Just look at the discrepancies between expected eFG% and real eFG% per pbpstats.com:

Games 1 through 21: 54.0 expected eFG% | 50.3 real eFG%
Games 22 through 39: 52.7 expected eFG% | 50.8 real eFG%
Games 40 through 48: 53.7 expected eFG% | 54.9 real eFG%

And here are the 3P%s on 3s deemed wide open by tracking:

Games 1 through 21: 30.6 %
Games 22 through 39: 34.1 %
Games 40 through 48: 48.7 %

Shooting matters.

[Pillendreher]

And also an update on our shot contesting:



Afaik, we were up in the 80s overall earlier in the season. We need to get back to that.

[Bergmaniac]

Entering Nader into the rotation has been a major reason for your defensive problems lately IMO. The guy is so slow and just seems lost on that end. Far from the only reason, of course, the starters have been slipping significantly on that end, too. But the bench's recent inability to defend affects the starters defence too, so often lately you start strong on D, get a decent lead, then the bench comes in, the other team makes a bunch of easy shots, then they get in rhythm, grow in confidence and it helps them against the starters too.

Schroder turning into one of the worst defenders in the league in the last month or so according to the numbers and my eye test also doesn't help matters.

The starters also have seem tired at times and the effort level is noticeably lower than before in some stretches of games, but if the bench hasn't been such a dumpster fire on D the defensive decline would have been far less noticeable.

[ThunderBolt]

Does Donovan get credit for development of Ferguson?

And Grant last year?

Yes. Does that answer make you happy?

[hardenASG13]

Does Donovan get credit for development of Ferguson?

And Grant last year?

Yes. Does that answer make you happy?

No.....these guys have an incredibly high incentive to improve (millions of dollars). They work their asses off to achieve their goals and improve in areas where they can contribute. They work with trainers, peers, and individually to get better. This isn't an 8th grade team or HS team where the head coach develops the guys. They are professional men.

[Dadouv47]

Does Donovan get credit for development of Ferguson?

And Grant last year?

Yes. Does that answer make you happy?

No.....these guys have an incredibly high incentive to improve (millions of dollars). They work their asses off to achieve their goals and improve in areas where they can contribute. They work with trainers, peers, and individually to get better. This isn't an 8th grade team or HS team where the head coach develops the guys. They are professional men.

Really? Wouldn't you be more optimistic about a player developing with the spurs than with the knicks or suns?

[ThunderBolt]

I'll never understand why people on message boards want to assign all blame or credit to one party. Donovan can get some credit for success and failures. Same could be said of Presti. Unless Ferg comes out and says " i give all of the credit for my develpoment to..." we'll never know. When it comes to blame/credit proportions its not just one thing. "Russ takes stupid shot." "Donovan played horrible rotations." "Presti's roster construction sucks" .

[hardenASG13]

Yes. Does that answer make you happy?

No.....these guys have an incredibly high incentive to improve (millions of dollars). They work their asses off to achieve their goals and improve in areas where they can contribute. They work with trainers, peers, and individually to get better. This isn't an 8th grade team or HS team where the head coach develops the guys. They are professional men.

Really? Wouldn't you be more optimistic about a player developing with the spurs than with the knicks or suns?

Is that the head coach working individually with the players, or the culture and personnel of those franchises. I do credit Donovan with continuing to roll Ferguson out there, but it's not like he developed him. I bet Ferguson put in alot of work. As for grant, if anything, he held him back for far too long, guy is a beast who also clearly has put in alot of individual work.

[ThunderBolt]

No.....these guys have an incredibly high incentive to improve (millions of dollars). They work their asses off to achieve their goals and improve in areas where they can contribute. They work with trainers, peers, and individually to get better. This isn't an 8th grade team or HS team where the head coach develops the guys. They are professional men.

Really? Wouldn't you be more optimistic about a player developing with the spurs than with the knicks or suns?

Is that the head coach working individually with the players, or the culture and personnel of those franchises. I do credit Donovan with continuing to roll Ferguson out there, but it's not like he developed him. I bet Ferguson put in alot of work. As for grant, if anything, he held him back for far too long, guy is a beast who also clearly has put in alot of individual work.

How do we know for sure how much Donovan or any coach does with Ferguson, Grant or anyone? Look I'm not saying that Donovan is a great coach but we just don't know what's happening behind closed doors. Maybe Billy looks at Grant and Ferguson and sees specific things he wants them to improve on. The assistant coaches help implement what Donovan wants done and then it's up to the player to put in the work. In this example does each party get 1/3 of the credit? That's not realistically how it works.

[hardenASG13]

Really? Wouldn't you be more optimistic about a player developing with the spurs than with the knicks or suns?

Is that the head coach working individually with the players, or the culture and personnel of those franchises. I do credit Donovan with continuing to roll Ferguson out there, but it's not like he developed him. I bet Ferguson put in alot of work. As for grant, if anything, he held him back for far too long, guy is a beast who also clearly has put in alot of individual work.

How do we know for sure how much Donovan or any coach does with Ferguson, Grant or anyone? Look I'm not saying that Donovan is a great coach but we just don't know what's happening behind closed doors. Maybe Billy looks at Grant and Ferguson and sees specific things he wants them to improve on. The assistant coaches help implement what Donovan wants done and then it's up to the player to put in the work. In this example does each party get 1/3 of the credit? That's not realistically how it works.

I think that's pretty accurate as to how it goes.....although it was clear Ferguson just had to hit his 3s, and grant had to get better on his drives, spot ups, and body. Makes Robersons shooting troubles that much worse really, bc I'm sure he put in countless hours trying but couldn't develop the confidence

[SecondTake]

Schroders minutes being reduced the past 7-8 games is very concerning. He's averaging like 24-25 minutes over that span with now back to back games at 22. He signed up for 30 min a night and it won't be long until he starts complaining. We also need more minutes from him if we're going to win. He should be getting at least 27 a night, especially since he's been shooting lights out lately.

[Pillendreher]

Schroders minutes being reduced the past 7-8 games is very concerning. He's averaging like 24-25 minutes over that span with now back to back games at 22. He signed up for 30 min a night and it won't be long until he starts complaining. We also need more minutes from him if we're going to win. He should be getting at least 27 a night, especially since he's been shooting lights out lately.

Au contraire. 22 is much better than 30. Team first, delusional bench player second.

[spearsy23]

Really? Wouldn't you be more optimistic about a player developing with the spurs than with the knicks or suns?

Is that the head coach working individually with the players, or the culture and personnel of those franchises. I do credit Donovan with continuing to roll Ferguson out there, but it's not like he developed him. I bet Ferguson put in alot of work. As for grant, if anything, he held him back for far too long, guy is a beast who also clearly has put in alot of individual work.

How do we know for sure how much Donovan or any coach does with Ferguson, Grant or anyone? Look I'm not saying that Donovan is a great coach but we just don't know what's happening behind closed doors. Maybe Billy looks at Grant and Ferguson and sees specific things he wants them to improve on. The assistant coaches help implement what Donovan wants done and then it's up to the player to put in the work. In this example does each party get 1/3 of the credit? That's not realistically how it works.

I don't think there's any question that Donovan isn't working with them one on one, but ultimately it's his staff and he directing it. Their success are his successes.

[wco81]

Did Donovan get to hire all his staff or were there some holdovers that the team foisted upon him when he signed?

But this is year 3 for Donovan so he should have pretty complete say on who’s on his staff, what their responsibilities are, being aware of the development plans for each player, etc.

I wouldn’t mind a Hard Knocks for NBA, but the NBA training camps aren’t as long or probably interesting.

[Pillendreher]

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/25788328/paul-george-most-disruptive-force-nba

I missed this.

No team in the league turns live-ball turnovers into points more often than OKC, and George and Westbrook rank No. 1 and No. 2 in that category, according to Second Spectrum data. They combine to log more than 10 points per game as a duo.

The Thunder already have 300 shots coming off these heists, and they average 6.5 of them per 100 possessions -- both marks are the highest in the NBA, per Second Spectrum tracking. And they are great at converting these looks, averaging 1.33 points per shot (sixth in efficiency on such plays).

Per Second Spectrum data, the Thunder score just 0.90 points per chance on non-transition possessions, which ranks 22nd in the NBA. That's not good for a team with title hopes. But OKC is great at supplementing its poor half-court efficiency with a hyperactive, hyper-efficient turnover-industrial complex.

Of the 45 players who have defended at least 500 shots this season, George ranks eighth in the league by holding shooters to 0.98 points per shot. The seven dudes in front of him are all big men, meaning George is arguably the most effective shot-defending wing in the NBA.