2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

[RalphSampsonJr]

Also what defensive stat is the most telling of a players defensive ability. DBPM (but with the understanding it skews to centers)?

Defensive stats are too flawed. Use the good ol eye test

[Pillendreher]

So is this Grants ceiling? Or can he become better?

To quote Russ: Why Not? While I take full credit for unlocking both Ferguson and Grant with my criticism, I don't see why he couldn't get better.

-He started off the season with not being able to hit anything on drives (29.2 FG%/42.9 PTS% on drives), but has managed to turn that around somewhat since December (43.5 FG%/68.1 PTS%), even though he's not getting wide open lanes to the rim
-Even though they look like circus shots most of the time, Grant has actually managed to hit midrange jumpers pretty well this season. Per basketball-reference, he's shooting 46.5 % on 2pt jumpers this season.
-Despite our lack of shooting/spacing, Grant is shooting a career high of 68.5 % directly at the rim. And that's with Adams drawing opposing players to him in the paint and people sagging off of Russ
-And finally he's been doing all of this despite having the lowest FTr of his career by far.

He's been sneaky good working around the edges, kinda filling holes left by other teammates. I sure as hell hope he continues to do that.

[slick_watts]

Also what defensive stat is the most telling of a players defensive ability. DBPM (but with the understanding it skews to centers)?

there is none.

[hardenASG13]

Also what defensive stat is the most telling of a players defensive ability. DBPM (but with the understanding it skews to centers)?

there is none.

Haven't you and others used defensive stats as almost your entire argument for Roberson? Don't get me wrong, he passed the eye test on D as well........but so do Ferguson and Grant. Ferguson is nearly as active, not as smart or strong yet, and probably faster. He also has turned into a 3 point gunner with the open looks that the okc starting 2 guard inherits. It took him half a season of consistent minutes. Grant, unlike Roberson, actually can guard 2s, 3s, 4s, and some 5s ( isn't as good on ball or thru screens, better against bigs than roberson). I know Roberson was a pf in college, but Colorado doesn't play an NBA schedule. Grant has been effective on guys ranging from Jimmy butler to giannis.

The results are speaking for themselves. Other role players have finally been given a chance, and are thriving on both ends. Will you even consider that Roberson really wasn't that special? They don't miss him. He would be useless offensively with the bench, and Ferguson is a better fit with the starters, as he can shoot a basketball while the team has continued to play very good D without roberson.

[Old Man Game]

Also what defensive stat is the most telling of a players defensive ability. DBPM (but with the understanding it skews to centers)?

there is none.

I thought some of that sport vu tracking stuff was supposed to be decent at measuring defense. Like contests X amount of shots or whatever.

[slick_watts]

Also what defensive stat is the most telling of a players defensive ability. DBPM (but with the understanding it skews to centers)?

there is none.

Haven't you and others used defensive stats as almost your entire argument for Roberson? Don't get me wrong, he passed the eye test on D as well........but so do Ferguson and Grant. Ferguson is nearly as active, not as smart or strong yet, and probably faster. He also has turned into a 3 point gunner with the open looks that the okc starting 2 guard inherits. It took him half a season of consistent minutes. Grant, unlike Roberson, actually can guard 2s, 3s, 4s, and some 5s ( isn't as good on ball or thru screens, better against bigs than roberson). I know Roberson was a pf in college, but Colorado doesn't play an NBA schedule. Grant has been effective on guys ranging from Jimmy butler to giannis.

The results are speaking for themselves. Other role players have finally been given a chance, and are thriving on both ends. Will you even consider that Roberson really wasn't that special? They don't miss him. He would be useless offensively with the bench, and Ferguson is a better fit with the starters, as he can shoot a basketball while the team has continued to play very good D without roberson.

there is no single one, is what i meant. with a large enough sample size you can get a good beat on individual defense using a combination of data sources.

no, andre roberson was special. probably the best defensive wing in the league when he got hurt. remember that he carried a defense as good as or better with melo at power forward. if 100% andre roberson came back tomorrow he'd usurp terrance ferguson in a nanosecond.

[SecondTake]

So is this Grants ceiling? Or can he become better?

He can get better at FT's and 3s - 37%+ on 3s should be doable. Also better ball handling would help him with his drives. Both could be improved. And I guess he could get better at flopping (drawing fouls) which combined with better FT shooting would make him a lot more dangerous.

[SecondTake]

The streak of above league offensive performances continues at 10 now. Over the last 10 games, we've scored 116.2 pp100p on average against teams that - on average - allow 109.2 pp100p.

I'm guessing most of that has to do with Ferg bombing 3s, no? He added like 10 points per game in that stretch.

[SecondTake]

there is none.

Haven't you and others used defensive stats as almost your entire argument for Roberson? Don't get me wrong, he passed the eye test on D as well........but so do Ferguson and Grant. Ferguson is nearly as active, not as smart or strong yet, and probably faster. He also has turned into a 3 point gunner with the open looks that the okc starting 2 guard inherits. It took him half a season of consistent minutes. Grant, unlike Roberson, actually can guard 2s, 3s, 4s, and some 5s ( isn't as good on ball or thru screens, better against bigs than roberson). I know Roberson was a pf in college, but Colorado doesn't play an NBA schedule. Grant has been effective on guys ranging from Jimmy butler to giannis.

The results are speaking for themselves. Other role players have finally been given a chance, and are thriving on both ends. Will you even consider that Roberson really wasn't that special? They don't miss him. He would be useless offensively with the bench, and Ferguson is a better fit with the starters, as he can shoot a basketball while the team has continued to play very good D without roberson.

there is no single one, is what i meant. with a large enough sample size you can get a good beat on individual defense using a combination of data sources.

no, andre roberson was special. probably the best defensive wing in the league when he got hurt. remember that he carried a defense as good as or better with melo at power forward. if 100% andre roberson came back tomorrow he'd usurp terrance ferguson in a nanosecond.

Roberson is the best perimeter defender in the NBA when 100%, but if Ferg keeps hitting 40%+ of his 3s (I think he will, because he has great mechanics) and scoring 12-16 points a game then his overall on court value is arguably equal, or close to Robersons. I also think the spacing he gives the starters really helps them, because if we move Ferg to the bench I have doubts that Schroder would consistently find him open the way Westbrook does.

I think in 2 seasons though this won't be a question. I expect Ferg to put up some weight (kids young and thin like a stick) keep improving his shot, defense and handling and will ultimately be more valuable as an all around player than Roberson ever was.

To beat GSW though we really need both.

[Pillendreher]

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[Balkman32]

Have we heard how the re-evaluated on Dre went?

Donovan said last week that he isn't close to a return. I'd be surprised if we see him this year.

Yeah, but then why didn't they apply for the DPE? Makes me think Dre's going to back sometime in March.

If we applied and got it then he couldn't come back. We have the $10 million from Melo, I don't think we need another $5 million, plus shutting the door on Dre's return.

Yesterday was a year since his injury. I can't believe he hasn't played in an year.

[slick_watts]

Donovan said last week that he isn't close to a return. I'd be surprised if we see him this year.

Yeah, but then why didn't they apply for the DPE? Makes me think Dre's going to back sometime in March.

If we applied and got it then he couldn't come back. We have the $10 million from Melo, I don't think we need another $5 million, plus shutting the door on Dre's return.

Yesterday was a year since his injury. I can't believe he hasn't played in an year.

this isn't true. there is no penalty for a player returning earlier than expected after a team is granted a DPE. nor is there a restriction on when they can return.

[SecondTake]

Yeah, but then why didn't they apply for the DPE? Makes me think Dre's going to back sometime in March.

If we applied and got it then he couldn't come back. We have the $10 million from Melo, I don't think we need another $5 million, plus shutting the door on Dre's return.

Yesterday was a year since his injury. I can't believe he hasn't played in an year.

this isn't true. there is no penalty for a player returning earlier than expected after a team is granted a DPE. nor is there a restriction on when they can return.

So do you think we didnt apply because he's coming back?

[Balkman32]

If we applied and got it then he couldn't come back. We have the $10 million from Melo, I don't think we need another $5 million, plus shutting the door on Dre's return.

Yesterday was a year since his injury. I can't believe he hasn't played in an year.

this isn't true. there is no penalty for a player returning earlier than expected after a team is granted a DPE. nor is there a restriction on when they can return.

So do you think we didnt apply because he's coming back?

I think we didn't apply to leave the outside chance that he can return. Plus, the Thunder don't need the exception since they have the Melo exception.

[Old Man Game]

Donovan said last week that he isn't close to a return. I'd be surprised if we see him this year.

Yeah, but then why didn't they apply for the DPE? Makes me think Dre's going to back sometime in March.

If we applied and got it then he couldn't come back. We have the $10 million from Melo, I don't think we need another $5 million, plus shutting the door on Dre's return.

Yesterday was a year since his injury. I can't believe he hasn't played in an year.

Wow. Hadn't realized it had already been that long. Depressing. He better get back on the court soon.

[Bergmaniac]

If we applied and got it then he couldn't come back. We have the $10 million from Melo, I don't think we need another $5 million, plus shutting the door on Dre's return.

Yesterday was a year since his injury. I can't believe he hasn't played in an year.

this isn't true. there is no penalty for a player returning earlier than expected after a team is granted a DPE. nor is there a restriction on when they can return.

So do you think we didnt apply because he's coming back?

You have the Melo exception and you are unlikely to take on more salary in any trade this season anyway since you are way over the cap and any additional salary would cost the Thunder owners about 5 times its nominal value.

[Bergmaniac]

Paul George's on/off stats for January are quite ridiculous:

PG13 on the court: 114.2 ORTG, 105.4 DRTG, 8.7 Net Rating

PG13 off the court: 98.9 ORTG, 124.8 DRTG, -26.0 Net Rating

This is an insane impact.

[Balkman32]

this isn't true. there is no penalty for a player returning earlier than expected after a team is granted a DPE. nor is there a restriction on when they can return.

So do you think we didnt apply because he's coming back?

You have the Melo exception and you are unlikely to take on more salary in any trade this season anyway since you are way over the cap and any additional salary would cost the Thunder owners about 5 times its nominal value.

Fro every million spent its taxed at $4.5 million. I doubt the Thunder add salary unless its a move that takes them to another level.

[Balkman32]

Paul George's on/off stats for January are quite ridiculous:

PG13 on the court: 114.2 ORTG, 105.4 DRTG, 8.7 Net Rating

PG13 off the court: 98.9 ORTG, 124.8 DRTG, -26.0 Net Rating

This is an insane impact.

I think a lineup of Westbrook and Schroder w/o George has been a very bad lineup. Hopefully we see less and less of that line up.

[SecondTake]

Paul George's on/off stats for January are quite ridiculous:

PG13 on the court: 114.2 ORTG, 105.4 DRTG, 8.7 Net Rating

PG13 off the court: 98.9 ORTG, 124.8 DRTG, -26.0 Net Rating

This is an insane impact.

I think a lineup of Westbrook and Schroder w/o George has been a very bad lineup. Hopefully we see less and less of that line up.

WB's shooting efficiency numbers are magnitudes better with Schroder on the floor though.