2017-2018 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread Part Deux: Follow the Melo Brick Road

[getrichordie]

If you had to pick a 9-man rotation headed into the playoffs, who would it be?


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[Pillendreher]

Westbrook/Felton
Brewer/Half of Abrines
George/Half of Huestis
Anthony/Patterson
Adams/Grant

With a heavy dose of our Top 4 while the others get plugged into certain roles.

Russ+Grant without Adams: +6.9 NetRtG in over 400 minutes
George-Patterson-Adams without Westbrook: +2.1 NetRtG in over 70 minutes

There are things Donovan could do. Is he willing to do them tho?

[bondom34]

Westbrook/Felton
Brewer/Huestis
PG
Melo/Grant
Adams/Patterson

I'd rather Huestis over Abrines at this point.

[Dn4sty]

So with the season almost over, what are your thoughts on Ferguson heading forward?

What type of player do you see his game most resembling if he hits his ceiling?

[ThunderBolt]

So with the season almost over, what are your thoughts on Ferguson heading forward?

What type of player do you see his game most resembling if he hits his ceiling?

Despite his horrible +\- I’ve seen some good things. Unfortunately I think he’s unlikely to make a jump over the offseason. I think he’s two years away from being whatever he’ll be.

[Dn4sty]

So with the season almost over, what are your thoughts on Ferguson heading forward?

What type of player do you see his game most resembling if he hits his ceiling?

Despite his horrible +\- I’ve seen some good things. Unfortunately I think he’s unlikely to make a jump over the offseason. I think he’s two years away from being whatever he’ll be.

Terence Ross like?

[Kizz Fastfists]

So with the season almost over, what are your thoughts on Ferguson heading forward?

What type of player do you see his game most resembling if he hits his ceiling?

When he was drafted I said he'd be as good as Jimmy Butler. I'm sticking to that. His numbers on offense all compare very favorably with Butler as a rookie and he has the foundation to be as good on defense. Ferguson needs to put on some weight and get up around 220. I think his floor is JJ Redick which would mean Ferguson fails to put on the weight needed to be a force on defense against bigger wings but his offense and solid defense makes him a very valuable rotation player just short of being an all-star. Keep in mind that both Redick and Butler took a few years to develop. I expected the same from Ferguson from day one. I think it will be his 3rd season when we see Ferguson start to reach his potential and become a fixture in the rotation.

[ThunderBolt]

So with the season almost over, what are your thoughts on Ferguson heading forward?

What type of player do you see his game most resembling if he hits his ceiling?

Despite his horrible +\- I’ve seen some good things. Unfortunately I think he’s unlikely to make a jump over the offseason. I think he’s two years away from being whatever he’ll be.

Terence Ross like?

It’s just hard to say at this point.Im not great with comparisons. Im not as high on him as Kizz but I’m maybe the second highest about his potential on this board. I’ve always liked him but his timeline for development doesn’t realky fit for Russ.

[Kizz Fastfists]

It’s just hard to say at this point.Im not great with comparisons. Im not as high on him as Kizz but I’m maybe the second highest about his potential on this board. I’ve always liked him but his timeline for development doesn’t realky fit for Russ.

I believe that in '20-'21 Ferguson will be the best player on the team. Some of that will have to do with Russ' decline, but I am that high on Ferguson. The problem is that will just keep OKC good enough to be a regular first round playoff exit for the foreseeable future. There is no path I can see that gets them past that consistently. Even if you say PG stays he'll be 30 and dropping off as Ferguson starts to peak. So you'll have a declining Russ and PG with Ferguson and Adams and a weak bench from no cap space and a lack of draft picks. They might get to the 2nd round once or twice with that group, but they still are unlikely to be contenders unless Russ ages better then any player I can come up with in the history of the NBA.

[Pillendreher]

I don't think his rookie numbers are really telling us anything:

http://bkref.com/tiny/wApts

[hardenASG13]

So with the season almost over, what are your thoughts on Ferguson heading forward?

What type of player do you see his game most resembling if he hits his ceiling?

When he was drafted I said he'd be as good as Jimmy Butler. I'm sticking to that. His numbers on offense all compare very favorably with Butler as a rookie and he has the foundation to be as good on defense. Ferguson needs to put on some weight and get up around 220. I think his floor is JJ Redick which would mean Ferguson fails to put on the weight needed to be a force on defense against bigger wings but his offense and solid defense makes him a very valuable rotation player just short of being an all-star. Keep in mind that both Redick and Butler took a few years to develop. I expected the same from Ferguson from day one. I think it will be his 3rd season when we see Ferguson start to reach his potential and become a fixture in the rotation.

So his numbers compare favorably to Butlers 8mpg, 40%fg, 18%3pt, 2 pts a game in garbage time when Butler was a rookie!? That's saying a whole lot! He's also not built close butler, who weighs over 50 pounds more than him, so not where the comparison of their defensive foundation comes from?

Personally, while he will clearly bulk up, if he added 50 pounds to get to Butlers build I think it'd hurt his game, which is based off speed, hops and spot up shooting, which is completely unlike butler or redick. I like the Terrance Ross comparison, he will be a guy who can go off occasionally, make the highlight dunks. His handle needs to improve dramatically to be anything close to a go to guy. He's the same age as Jason Tatum, for perspective, and there are numerous rookies coming in this year who are much more polished at the same age. See him as a 6th man type, maybe a starter.

They should have traded him imo, or drafted a player who could've contributed This season, seeing how it is and has been an all in season for them. One more contributing wing would be so big for this team.

[ThunderBolt]

It’s just hard to say at this point.Im not great with comparisons. Im not as high on him as Kizz but I’m maybe the second highest about his potential on this board. I’ve always liked him but his timeline for development doesn’t realky fit for Russ.

I believe that in '20-'21 Ferguson will be the best player on the team. Some of that will have to do with Russ' decline, but I am that high on Ferguson. The problem is that will just keep OKC good enough to be a regular first round playoff exit for the foreseeable future. There is no path I can see that gets them past that consistently. Even if you say PG stays he'll be 30 and dropping off as Ferguson starts to peak. So you'll have a declining Russ and PG with Ferguson and Adams and a weak bench from no cap space and a lack of draft picks. They might get to the 2nd round once or twice with that group, but they still are unlikely to be contenders unless Russ ages better then any player I can come up with in the history of the NBA.

Butler has a work ethic second to none. That’s what Ferguson will need, imo. He has more of a Durant-type body type than butler. I hope you’re right about his development but my tempered hopes are that he becomes a really good 3&D guy.

[bondom34]

If I'm honest Ross is the best case comparison. And I don't think Ross is any good.

[Pillendreher]

When it comes to hubris and confidence, George might be closer to Russ than we thought. Which might be a good thing.

[Pillendreher]

Starters' jersey numbers with Brewer:

0 + 3 + 13 + 7 + 12 = 35

[bondom34]

Didn't really think about it until I read what Horne wrote yesterday but one thing that may help the rough schedule is if Houston wraps up the 1 seed. They have Houston and GSW in the last 4 games and they hopefully rest guys.

[Andre Roberstan]

If I'm honest Ross is the best case comparison. And I don't think Ross is any good.

I think Ferg works/tries harder than Ross. But yeah, Ross is my first comp.

[slick_watts]

butler had insane ftr the moment he stepped onto an nba court. i can't tell if that comparison is a sarcastic joke or not. if ferguson had those chops in him he's had all the opportunity to show it. butler was also a 22 year old rookie though.

he reminds me of jeremy lamb. in general i think it's difficult for a wing who doesn't make jump shots or get to the line a lot. this was my problem with jeremy lamb. ferguson was not a great 3pt shooter in australia. he hasn't been in the nba so far. he's young enough for that to change. he doesn't get to the line. i think most players with that skills tend to show it early, even as young as ferguson.

for him to be decent he has to be a great three point shooter. i don't see much there other than that.

[bondom34]

I kinda like the Lamb comp honestly. A bit thinner framed bit something there is reminiscent.

[Pillendreher]

he doesn't get to the line.

Well to be fair they only ask him to bomb 3s. in 55 games he's attempted 18 layups. Hard to get to the line when all you're doing is shooting 3s and attacking the rim when nobody's near you.