2024-2025 OKC Thunder Games Thread

[ThunderBolt]

We’re a much different team than last year if we are healthy. Too much has been made of maverick/laker struggles for okc.

[Kizz Fastfists]

We’re a much different team than last year if we are healthy. Too much has been made of maverick/laker struggles for okc.

Kyrie is done. Luka is gone. Dallas isn't an issue. LAL is a concern only because of LeBron and Luka and those two are capable of beating ANY team on a given night. They shouldn't be able to win 4 out of 7 against OKC. Denver is also capable of beating OKC with Jokic/Murray/etc. I don't see anyone else in the West capable of beating a healthy OKC team in a series. Capable does not mean likely. I wouldn't pick OKC to sweep either of them, but I see no excuses for OKC not coming out of the West this year.

[slick_watts]

losing last year was bad, the thunder had the #1 seed and were better than all the other west teams despite their weaknesses.

this year it would be a monumental upset for them to lose to anyone in the west. i'm a bit concerned with mark daigneault's lineup constructions especially since chet came back and he's gone with the two-big nonsense, but we're still out-talenting every other west team by a huge margin if we're healthy.

[lethalizer]

Crazy thing to me is, I think this time around(compared to last season) this team is much more suited to be a better playoff team if healthy.

When the pace slows down it'll be a lot harder for teams to generate those fast paced quick action threes we seem to let go, cause you have to give up something on the defensive end.

Yeah we'll need players to step up on offense besides Shai, no doubt, but I think the defense will provide us a very large margin of error this time around. Teams will have to up their pace and just go guns a blazing against us, that is very tough to do in a playoff setting.

[Devilanche]

losing last year was bad, the thunder had the #1 seed and were better than all the other west teams despite their weaknesses.

this year it would be a monumental upset for them to lose to anyone in the west. i'm a bit concerned with mark daigneault's lineup constructions especially since chet came back and he's gone with the two-big nonsense, but we're still out-talenting every other west team by a huge margin if we're healthy.

I think there might be matchup where we will need run a double big lineup some minutes . Even if there isn’t , it doesn’t make sense to sense out where it will go in the regular season more so when we are far ahead of second seeds.

[Xatticus]

losing last year was bad, the thunder had the #1 seed and were better than all the other west teams despite their weaknesses.

this year it would be a monumental upset for them to lose to anyone in the west. i'm a bit concerned with mark daigneault's lineup constructions especially since chet came back and he's gone with the two-big nonsense, but we're still out-talenting every other west team by a huge margin if we're healthy.

Lineups are dynamic and complex. You can't approach it linearly. This is where you get into DiffEq. We should be trying different things right now because we don't know exactly what we will need to combat the different matchups we will face in the postseason and we certainly don't want to go into that blind. We have to figure out how functions impact functions.

You would expect players that haven't played alongside each other to improve as they gain experience doing so. Continuity is a variable, particularly with the schematic changes of having two bigs on the floor together for a team that really hasn't utilized big lineups previously.

[lethalizer]

losing last year was bad, the thunder had the #1 seed and were better than all the other west teams despite their weaknesses.

this year it would be a monumental upset for them to lose to anyone in the west. i'm a bit concerned with mark daigneault's lineup constructions especially since chet came back and he's gone with the two-big nonsense, but we're still out-talenting every other west team by a huge margin if we're healthy.

Lineups are dynamic and complex. You can't approach it linearly. This is where you get into DiffEq. We should be trying different things right now because we don't know exactly what we will need to combat the different matchups we will face in the postseason and we certainly don't want to go into that blind. We have to figure out how functions impact functions.

You would expect players that haven't played alongside each other to improve as they gain experience doing so. Continuity is a variable, particularly with the schematic changes of having two bigs on the floor together for a team that really hasn't utilized big lineups previously.

I get whay you're trying to say here, but I'd rather test these lineups in the regular season against teams that actually use double bigs.

Having Chet guard the perimeter against "spacing players" is just a fruitless exercise no matter how many fancy words you use to try and justify it. Chet is a rim protector, you don't want him running around the perimeter tiring himself for no reason.

It's a good option to have if a team tries to bully us come playoff time. Otherwise, I really don't get the point of going for these lineups. Well, maybe Mark still wants JWill getting some minutes at center as a spacing big, which is only possible when you start both Chet and iHart. Otherwise, I really have no explanation here.

[Xatticus]

losing last year was bad, the thunder had the #1 seed and were better than all the other west teams despite their weaknesses.

this year it would be a monumental upset for them to lose to anyone in the west. i'm a bit concerned with mark daigneault's lineup constructions especially since chet came back and he's gone with the two-big nonsense, but we're still out-talenting every other west team by a huge margin if we're healthy.

Lineups are dynamic and complex. You can't approach it linearly. This is where you get into DiffEq. We should be trying different things right now because we don't know exactly what we will need to combat the different matchups we will face in the postseason and we certainly don't want to go into that blind. We have to figure out how functions impact functions.

You would expect players that haven't played alongside each other to improve as they gain experience doing so. Continuity is a variable, particularly with the schematic changes of having two bigs on the floor together for a team that really hasn't utilized big lineups previously.

I get whay you're trying to say here, but I'd rather test these lineups in the regular season against teams that actually use double bigs.

Having Chet guard the perimeter against "spacing players" is just a fruitless exercise no matter how many fancy words you use to try and justify it. Chet is a rim protector, you don't want him running around the perimeter tiring himself for no reason.

It's a good option to have if a team tries to bully us come playoff time. Otherwise, I really don't get the point of going for these lineups. Well, maybe Mark still wants JWill getting some minutes at center as a spacing big, which is only possible when you start both Chet and iHart. Otherwise, I really have no explanation here.

It's really not that simple. Holmgren is a rim protector, but he doesn't stop teams from trying to bully us. He is tough. He is physical. He is not strong. You generally want your rim protector defending your opposition's most limited offensive player because you don't want to get punished for helping. In the past, that was almost always a five, but that isn't the case anymore and it's going to vary from game to game and lineup to lineup. Additionally, we want Hartenstein or Jaylin bodying up the opposition's punishing bigs because they are just going to be a lot harder to displace than Holmgren.

It doesn't really mean much to label someone a four or a five. What matters is what they can and can't do. If dragging Holmgren away from the basket neutralizes his effectiveness, then teams will do it. They will find your weakness and exploit it by forcing switches. That's how everyone dealt with Gobert when they matched up with Utah in the playoffs. Fortunately for us, Holmgren is a capable defender in space.

I'm not at all worried about how this will work out at the defensive end. It will work. I am concerned with how it works at the offensive end given Hartenstein's limitations, but this is why they need reps together right now. I don't expect our rotations will look the same when the playoffs actually start. Giddey's role was greatly reduced during the playoffs last year.

[slick_watts]

I'm not at all worried about how this will work out at the defensive end. It will work. I am concerned with how it works at the offensive end given Hartenstein's limitations, but this is why they need reps together right now. I don't expect our rotations will look the same when the playoffs actually start. Giddey's role was greatly reduced during the playoffs last year.

whoa. all of my concerns for the two-big lineup are on defense. the reason being is that the player that one of the big is replacing (typically wallace, or some other elite defensive wing) is probably a worse offensive player than either chet or hartenstein. on defense, you're turning chet into a wing, which we saw last year during his limited minutes next to jwill is not ideal for him. hartenstein-chet lineups are allowing over 120pp100! opponent turnover rate is low and opponent three point attempt rate and percentage is high. i think this makes sense considering how our defense typically operates. we are about agile rotations, switching, and playing the passing lanes. forcing teams into tough decisions and contests.

when you hartenstein starting with chet, obviously those traits are compromised. we end up slower, our rotations are no longer agile, and our ability to switch screens is compromised. i don't think there is any way the chet-hartenstein lineups can be better than either one alone with another defensive wing on the court- those lineups are already historically good.

too much is made of opponents 'bullying' chet. remember, we won the minutes with chet on the court against dallas. chet has won battles against jokic and embiid. he might give up an easy two or a rebound here or there but he's one of the best defensive bigs in the league.

[Xatticus]

I'm not at all worried about how this will work out at the defensive end. It will work. I am concerned with how it works at the offensive end given Hartenstein's limitations, but this is why they need reps together right now. I don't expect our rotations will look the same when the playoffs actually start. Giddey's role was greatly reduced during the playoffs last year.

whoa. all of my concerns for the two-big lineup are on defense. the reason being is that the player that one of the big is replacing (typically wallace, or some other elite defensive wing) is probably a worse offensive player than either chet or hartenstein. on defense, you're turning chet into a wing, which we saw last year during his limited minutes next to jwill is not ideal for him. hartenstein-chet lineups are allowing over 120pp100! opponent turnover rate is low and opponent three point attempt rate and percentage is high. i think this makes sense considering how our defense typically operates. we are about agile rotations, switching, and playing the passing lanes. forcing teams into tough decisions and contests.

when you hartenstein starting with chet, obviously those traits are compromised. we end up slower, our rotations are no longer agile, and our ability to switch screens is compromised. i don't think there is any way the chet-hartenstein lineups can be better than either one alone with another defensive wing on the court- those lineups are already historically good.

too much is made of opponents 'bullying' chet. remember, we won the minutes with chet on the court against dallas. chet has won battles against jokic and embiid. he might give up an easy two or a rebound here or there but he's one of the best defensive bigs in the league.

Yeah. I don't share these concerns and I don't believe you are drawing the correct conclusions based on the data. I'm fairly certain that the pairing of Hartenstein and Holmgren will be fine at the defensive end as long as they continue to get court time together. We've seen other teams succeed defensively with two bigs and I don't see anything about the skill sets of Hartenstein and Holmgren that would preclude them from having that same sort of success.

The primary issue is that they just haven't played alongside each other for very long. Having another big on the floor is going to change their roles a bit, but they will figure it out as they get more experience.

Holmgren and Hartenstein have played 114 minutes together, and that defensive rating you cited was from an even smaller sample as I just looked at the data and their defensive rating is currently 117.1, so it has already dropped some. This is probably due in part to regression, but whatever the true mean is at this point in time, it isn't static. The mean will go down as they play together. This is why it is imperative that they do so over the remainder of the regular season. We don't want to wait to get them on the court together until it is necessary, particularly when we have already locked up the number one seed.

[slick_watts]

Holmgren and Hartenstein have played 114 minutes together, and that defensive rating you cited was from an even smaller sample as I just looked at the data and their defensive rating is currently 117.1, so it has already dropped some.

i won't reply point for point since we just fundamentally disagree on this, but my figure was up to date- it's just pulled from pbpstats, not nba.com (where i presume you got yours). since those sites calculate possessions differently the absolute figures will be different, but the relative figures will be accurate. ~11-12pp100 worse than the team defense as a whole.

[Devilanche]

The primary issue is that they just haven't played alongside each other for very long. Having another big on the floor is going to change their roles a bit, but they will figure it out as they get more experience.

Biggest takeaway is this . They probably haven’t figure out how to play with each other . The rest of the lineup will need adjust as well.

[ThunderBolt]

I’m fairly convinced we’re getting to have many of same struggles in the playoffs this year.

[Dadouv47]

I’m fairly convinced we’re getting to have many of same struggles in the playoffs this year.

u mean same as last year?

[ThunderBolt]

I’m fairly convinced we’re getting to have many of same struggles in the playoffs this year.

u mean same as last year?

Yes and of course the team makes me look like a moron as soon as I post that.

[Dadouv47]

I’m fairly convinced we’re getting to have many of same struggles in the playoffs this year.

u mean same as last year?

Yes and of course the team makes me look like a moron as soon as I post that.

you are still right...we might have the sames struggles but with a different outcome because we have more depth: Chet foul trouble gonna be a problem but we have Hartenstein at least and worried that our role players don't hit their 3's but we added Caruso that should have an huge impact if he can stay healthy. Big question mark is if JDub can be that second scorer...still don't think so but our team is good enough to overcome this flaw if SGA plays like this.

[Thabo Sefolosha]

Thunder up!

[slick_watts]

the nuggets are barely decent with gordon, they are horrible without him. 2-big lineup struggled against the denver starters but cruised once gordon wasn't available.

[Dadouv47]

Read on Twitter

ouch

[Patches Perry]

Injuries have been crazy this season. Hopefully Dub is back within a couple weeks.