Preferable First Round Matchups

[Pillendreher]

Utah isn’t massively overachieving, imo. They are legit good since they’ve been healthy. I think I heard they 30-5 in their last 35 games. That’s more than a hot streak. How Pillendreher feels about playing Utah is how I feel about Portland. I think they overachieved and are coming back down to earth.

Of course they are massively overachieving. They're at +11 NetRtG over 37 games. And -1 over the first 44 games. There's not a single player in this league that is good enough to provide that kind of turnaround.

Now of course if you do that for an extended period of time, it's not a complete fluke, so you can't act like you would blow them out. But you still gotta acknowledge that you're looking at a team that is Gobert, a very good rookie, a decent Ingles and a bunch of defensive minded role players. Coaching and variance is only gonna replace a lack of talent and carry you so far.

[bondom34]

Yeah I think Utah is the better team than Portland honestly and maybe 2nd best in the west. They're just a better matchup imo.

[bondom34]

Except they were amazing last year when healthy too. They're that good defensively.

[spearsy23]

Except they were amazing last year when healthy too. They're that good defensively.

Then went 7 with la and would've lost if Griffin wasn't injured.

[spearsy23]

maybe 2nd best in the west.

Lolwut?

[bondom34]

Except they were amazing last year when healthy too. They're that good defensively.

Then went 7 with la and would've lost if Griffin wasn't injured.

Iirc Gobert got hurt. But again I still think they're a better matchup in part to their relative inexperience. If Adams stays healthy its better than Portland.

And I would kinda rather it be the 3/6 just in case they win

[spearsy23]

Except they were amazing last year when healthy too. They're that good defensively.

Then went 7 with la and would've lost if Griffin wasn't injured.

Iirc Gobert got hurt. But again I still think they're a better matchup in part to their relative inexperience. If Adams stays healthy its better than Portland.

And I would kinda rather it be the 3/6 just in case they win

He missed the first three and they went 1-2 then Griffin went down when he returned and they went 3-1. If both teams stay healthy I think it's a long series and la wins. Either way that's how good the jazz are, they're third tier contenders, which are usually considered pretenders.

[Pillendreher]

Except they were amazing last year when healthy too.

They lost two of their three best players this offseason. And honestly: I thought they was bs even last season. There's no way in hell they were actually as good as some of those lineups made them out to be.

Before Gobert came back, Rubio-Ingles-Mitchell-Gobert had a -9.7 NetRtG in 164 minutes. Since he came back, it's +23.0 in over 600 minutes.

Unless you believe that Jazz at full strength is the best team in the league, you gotta concede that they're not as good as they appear.

They're that good defensively.

They've also been playing at a Top 10 ORtG pace. But you know, that happens when non shooters like Rubio suddenly shoot 40 % from 3 on 4 attempts per game and when guys like Ingles shoot close to 60 % from 3 over prolonged stretches.

[Dadouv47]

Lillard is one of the worst match up for Westbrook in the NBA. Dude loves to play against the Thunder and always kill us. We also know he isn't scared about playoffs and play great under pressure. Nurkic is a terrible match up for Adams as well.

On the other hand Utah has almost 0 playoff experience despite the fact that they are a very smart and well coached team. Rubio is playing well but also doing with some injury lately and he won't be able to match Westbrook in a seven game serie.

It's a no brainer IMO

[Pillendreher]

Read on Twitter

So it's either Utah w/ HCA or w/o or Rockets.

Portland gotta do us a solid tonight.

[bondom34]

Then went 7 with la and would've lost if Griffin wasn't injured.

Iirc Gobert got hurt. But again I still think they're a better matchup in part to their relative inexperience. If Adams stays healthy its better than Portland.

And I would kinda rather it be the 3/6 just in case they win

He missed the first three and they went 1-2 then Griffin went down when he returned and they went 3-1. If both teams stay healthy I think it's a long series and la wins. Either way that's how good the jazz are, they're third tier contenders, which are usually considered pretenders.

To be fair what are OKC and Portland lol.

[bondom34]

Except they were amazing last year when healthy too.

They lost two of their three best players this offseason. And honestly: I thought they was bs even last season. There's no way in hell they were actually as good as some of those lineups made them out to be.

Before Gobert came back, Rubio-Ingles-Mitchell-Gobert had a -9.7 NetRtG in 164 minutes. Since he came back, it's +23.0 in over 600 minutes.

Unless you believe that Jazz at full strength is the best team in the league, you gotta concede that they're not as good as they appear.

They're that good defensively.

They've also been playing at a Top 10 ORtG pace. But you know, that happens when non shooters like Rubio suddenly shoot 40 % from 3 on 4 attempts per game and when guys like Ingles shoot close to 60 % from 3 over prolonged stretches.

When you're that good for half the season, and it coincides with the part when you're healthy, generally it means you're that good. They're smart, well coached and have depth and shooting. To add to it the best but in the game possibly in Gobert.

And honestly I kinda want the 3/6 matchup because if they scrape a win out I would rather gsw with a rusty Curry.

[spearsy23]

Iirc Gobert got hurt. But again I still think they're a better matchup in part to their relative inexperience. If Adams stays healthy its better than Portland.

And I would kinda rather it be the 3/6 just in case they win

He missed the first three and they went 1-2 then Griffin went down when he returned and they went 3-1. If both teams stay healthy I think it's a long series and la wins. Either way that's how good the jazz are, they're third tier contenders, which are usually considered pretenders.

To be fair what are OKC and Portland lol.

Same thing, but at least neither have a first year player as a centerpiece. I think Portland/Utah are on the same level, we're a bit behind, and Nola/sa/den/Minny are a bit farther back. Since it's pretty much Utah or Portland I'll take the one that's a good matchup and more likely to regress.

[Pillendreher]

He missed the first three and they went 1-2 then Griffin went down when he returned and they went 3-1. If both teams stay healthy I think it's a long series and la wins. Either way that's how good the jazz are, they're third tier contenders, which are usually considered pretenders.

To be fair what are OKC and Portland lol.

Same thing, but at least neither have a first year player as a centerpiece. I think Portland/Utah are on the same level, we're a bit behind, and Nola/sa/den/Minny are a bit farther back. Since it's pretty much Utah or Portland I'll take the one that's a good matchup and more likely to regress.

Portland is a .500 team that went on a streak for a couple of games.

68 non-streak games:

105.4 ORtG (would rank 18th on the season)
105.3 DRtG (would rank 12th on the season)
+0.1 NetRtG (would rank 18th on the season)

Us struggling against them does not turn them into a good team.

[ThunderBolt]

Utah isn’t massively overachieving, imo. They are legit good since they’ve been healthy. I think I heard they 30-5 in their last 35 games. That’s more than a hot streak. How Pillendreher feels about playing Utah is how I feel about Portland. I think they overachieved and are coming back down to earth.

Of course they are massively overachieving. They're at +11 NetRtG over 37 games. And -1 over the first 44 games. There's not a single player in this league that is good enough to provide that kind of turnaround.

Now of course if you do that for an extended period of time, it's not a complete fluke, so you can't act like you would blow them out. But you still gotta acknowledge that you're looking at a team that is Gobert, a very good rookie, a decent Ingles and a bunch of defensive minded role players. Coaching and variance is only gonna replace a lack of talent and carry you so far.

It’s not a single player, it’s multiple players. Gobert is healthy and Mitchell and Rubio are also playing better as the seasoon goes on. As mentioned, their srs is higher than Portland and that’s something you have referenced before as a measuring stick.

Your right that they’ll only get so far with lack of talent but let’s not act like Utah beating okc is some kind of massive upset. Conversely you can argue that talent will only carry you so far when you play our version of isoball and can’t close out three point shooters. We’re willing to give this team the benefit of the doubt because of a nice run of ten or so games before Dre got hurt but we’re going to discredit what Utah has done over 35+ games? That’s just bias.

[bondom34]

I would say OKC winning would be more an upset honestly

[bondom34]

And if they lose tonight they deserve to be stomped by Houston

[spearsy23]

To be fair what are OKC and Portland lol.

Same thing, but at least neither have a first year player as a centerpiece. I think Portland/Utah are on the same level, we're a bit behind, and Nola/sa/den/Minny are a bit farther back. Since it's pretty much Utah or Portland I'll take the one that's a good matchup and more likely to regress.

Portland is a .500 team that went on a streak for a couple of games.

68 non-streak games:

105.4 ORtG (would rank 18th on the season)
105.3 DRtG (would rank 12th on the season)
+0.1 NetRtG (would rank 18th on the season)

Us struggling against them does not turn them into a good team.

If you discount the games where teams played their best then they generally look average or worst, that's not novel analysis.

[spearsy23]

I would say OKC winning would be more an upset honestly

I think it's a toss up and there's no result that would really surprise me outside of us sweeping a team.

[Pillendreher]

let’s not act like Utah beating okc is some kind of massive upset. Conversely you can argue that talent will only carry you so far when you play our version of isoball and can’t close out three point shooters. We’re willing to give this team the benefit of the doubt because of a nice run of ten or so games before Dre got hurt but we’re going to discredit what Utah has done over 35+ games? That’s just bias.

No.I'm willing to give this team the benefit of the doubt because they have underachieved all season long (and that's not just based on a lack of shooting or whatever), yet is still one of the more talented in the league. When you have two Top 15 players, you can't lose to a team that was expected to win 30 games or so. If you do, it's an upset.